• 제목/요약/키워드: population distribution prediction

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패널 1차 자기회귀과정들의 동질성 검정 통계량 비교 (Comparison between homogeneity test statistics for panel AR(1) model)

  • 이성덕;김선우;조나래
    • 응용통계연구
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    • 제29권1호
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    • pp.123-132
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    • 2016
  • 패널 시계열 자료를 소개하고 패널 1차 자기회귀 모형을 고려하였다. 패널 1차 자기회귀 모형의 동질성 검정을 위한 검정 통계량으로 Rao 통계량과 Wald 통계량을 제안하고, 그 극한분포를 제시하였다. 모의실험을 통해 패널의 수가 작을 때에도 패널의 수가 많을 때와 마찬가지로 두 검정 통계량의 분포가 카이제곱분포를 따르는 것을 확인하였으며, 패널의 수가 작을 때 Rao 통계량이 Wald 통계량 보다 더 우수한 검정력을 가짐을 모의실험을 통해 확인하였다. 시도별 월별 경제활동인구수 자료를 패널 1차 자기회귀 모형으로 적합하여 동질성 검정을 수행한 결과 동질성을 만족하였다. 동질성 검정을 만족한 자료를 시점별 평균을 이용하여 종합하고 이를 1차 자기회귀모형으로 적합하였다. 각각의 시도별로 적합한 모형과 시점별 평균을 이용하여 적합한 모형의 예측력을 비교한 결과 동질성 검정을 통과한 패널 1차 자기회귀모형의 경우 자료를 종합하여 적합한 모형의 예측력이 더 우수함을 확인하였다.

大氣汚染豫測을 위한 面汚染源排出量 算定模型의 開發에 關한 硏究 (A Study on the Estimation Technique of Area Source Emissions for Air Pollution Prediction)

  • 박준대;김정욱
    • 한국대기환경학회지
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    • 제6권1호
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    • pp.43-50
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    • 1990
  • In the estimation of grid type area source emissions, the factors by which emissions are distributed spatially must be considered comprehensively. The estimation process can be approached systematically by connecting the emission activity of air pollutants with land use pattern and the various impacts can be taken into account in the process by using such area information as land use, population, distribution of households, types of housing units, fuel consumption and so on. The estimation procedure was computerized in order to calculate area source emissions by grid information system. This computerization helped to augment effectiveness and efficiency not only by managing enormous data but also by performing diverse functions.

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Challenges of Groundwater as Resources in the Near Future

  • Lee, Jin-Yong
    • 한국지하수토양환경학회지:지하수토양환경
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    • 제20권2호
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    • pp.1-9
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    • 2015
  • Groundwater has been a very precious resource for human life and economic development in the world. With increasing population and food demand, the groundwater use especially for agriculture is largely elevated worldwide. The very much large groundwater use results in depletion of major aquifers, land subsidences in many large cities, anthropogenic groundwater contamination, seawater intrusion in coastal areas and accompanying severe conflicts for water security. Furthermore, with the advent of changing climate, securing freshwater supply including groundwater becomes a pressing and critical issue for sustainable societal development in every country because prediction of precipitation is more difficult, its uneven distribution is aggravating, weather extremes are more frequent, and rising sea level is also threatening the freshwater resource. Under these difficulties, can groundwater be sustaining its role as essential element for human and society in the near future? We have to focus our efforts and wisdom on answering the question. Korean government should increase its investment in securing groundwater resources for changing climate.

Mortality Characteristics and Prediction of Female Breast Cancer in China from 1991 to 2011

  • Shi, Xiao-Jun;Au, William W.;Wu, Ku-Sheng;Chen, Lin-Xiang;Lin, Kun
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • 제15권6호
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    • pp.2785-2791
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    • 2014
  • Aims: To analyze time-dependent changes in female breast cancer (BC) mortality in China, forecast the trend in the ensuing 5 years, and provide recommendations for prevention and management. Materials and Methods: Mortality data of breast cancer in China from 1991 to 2011 was used to describe characteristics and distribution, such as the changes of the standardized mortality rate, urban-rural differences and age differences. Trend-surface analysis was used to study the geographical distribution of mortality. In addition, curve estimation, time series modeling, Gray modeling (GM) and joinpoint regression were performed to estimate and predict future trends. Results: In China, the mortality rate of breast cancer has increased yearly since 1991. In addition, our data predicted that the trend will continue to increase in the ensuing 5 years. Rates in urban areas are higher than those in rural areas. Over the past decade, all peak ages for death by breast cancer have been delayed, with the first death peak occurring at 55 to 65 years of age in urban and rural areas. Geographical analysis indicated that mortality rates increased from Southwest to Northeast and from West to East. Conclusions: The standardized mortality rate of breast cancer in China is rising and the upward trend is predicted to continue for the next 5 years. Since this can cause an enormous health impact in China, much better prevention and management of breast cancer is needed. Consequently, disease control centers in China should place more focus on the northeastern, eastern and southeastern parts of China for breast cancer prevention and management, and the key population should be among women between ages 55 to 65, especially those in urban communities.

A Study on the Appropriate Size of Stores and Countermeasures in Decline Commercial Area in the Original Downtown

  • Ryu, Tae-Chang
    • 유통과학연구
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    • 제19권11호
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    • pp.49-57
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    • 2021
  • Purpose: In this study, we try to figure out the appropriate size of commercial districts in the original downtown area through empirical studies targeting the Jinju Central Commercial Area in Gyeongnam and Cheonan Station in Chungnam, which are trying to regenerate a specific space that has been lost through government projects. Research design, data and methodology: The current status and characteristics of the shopping district were examined through on-site surveys of the central business district of Jinju, Gyeongnam Province, and Cheonan Station, Chungnam Province, and the size of the empty stores was determined. In addition, the standard median income was used as the survey data along with the survey of the mobile population in the commercial area. Result: The analysis result shows that 883 stores should be maintained considering the overall expenditure and gross sales profit within Cheonan Station in South Chungcheong Province. Currently, considering spending and margins in the Commercial Area, Jinju Central Commercial Area is a place where 222 stores can be sold excessively, and a proper commercial supply plan is needed. Conclusions: In this study, we conducted a demand prediction study in the commercial sector of the most basic sector to regenerate the commercial sector through major regional commercial districts.

Mapping Poverty Distribution of Urban Area using VIIRS Nighttime Light Satellite Imageries in D.I Yogyakarta, Indonesia

  • KHAIRUNNISAH;Arie Wahyu WIJAYANTO;Setia, PRAMANA
    • Asian Journal of Business Environment
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    • 제13권2호
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    • pp.9-20
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    • 2023
  • Purpose: This study aims to map the spatial distribution of poverty using nighttime light satellite images as a proxy indicator of economic activities and infrastructure distribution in D.I Yogyakarta, Indonesia. Research design, data, and methodology: This study uses official poverty statistics (National Socio-economic Survey (SUSENAS) and Poverty Database 2015) to compare satellite imagery's ability to identify poor urban areas in D.I Yogyakarta. National Socioeconomic Survey (SUSENAS), as poverty statistics at the macro level, uses expenditure to determine the poor in a region. Poverty Database 2015 (BDT 2015), as poverty statistics at the micro-level, uses asset ownership to determine the poor population in an area. Pearson correlation is used to identify the correlation among variables and construct a Support Vector Regression (SVR) model to estimate the poverty level at a granular level of 1 km x 1 km. Results: It is found that macro poverty level and moderate annual nighttime light intensity have a Pearson correlation of 74 percent. It is more significant than micro poverty, with the Pearson correlation being 49 percent in 2015. The SVR prediction model can achieve the root mean squared error (RMSE) of up to 8.48 percent on SUSENAS 2020 poverty data.Conclusion: Nighttime light satellite imagery data has potential benefits as alternative data to support regional poverty mapping, especially in urban areas. Using satellite imagery data is better at predicting regional poverty based on expenditure than asset ownership at the micro-level. Light intensity at night can better describe the use of electricity consumption for economic activities at night, which is captured in spending on electricity financing compared to asset ownership.

종분포모형을 이용한 도시 내 양봉꿀벌 서식환경 분석 연구 - 천안시를 중심으로 - (Habitat Analysis Study of Honeybees(Apis mellifera) in Urban Area Using Species Distribution Modeling - Focused on Cheonan -)

  • 김휘문;송원경;김성열;형은정;이승현
    • 한국환경복원기술학회지
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    • 제20권3호
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    • pp.55-64
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    • 2017
  • The problem of the population number of honeybees that is decreasing not only domestically but also globally, has a great influence on human beings and the entire ecosystem. The habitat of honeybees is recognized to be superior in urban environment rather than rural environment, and predicting for habitat assessment and conservation is necessary. Based on this, we targeted Cheonan City and neighboring administrative areas where the distribution of agricultural areas, urban areas, and forest areas is displayed equally. In order to predict the habitat preferred by honeybees, we apply the Maxent model what based on the presence information of the species. We also selected 10 environmental variables expected to influence honeybees habitat environment through literature survey. As a result of constructing the species distribution model using the Maxent model, 71.7% of the training data were shown on the AUC(Area Under Cover) basis, and it was be confirmed with an area of 20.73% in the whole target area, based on the 50% probability of presence of honeybees. It was confirmed that the contribution of the variable has influence on land covering, distance from the forest, altitude, aspect. Based on this, the possibility of honeybee's habitat characteristics were confirmed to be higher in wetland environment, in agricultural land, close to forest and lower elevation, southeast and west. The prediction of these habitat environments has significance as a lead research that presents the habitat of honeybees with high conservation value of ecosystems in terms of urban space, and it will be useful for future urban park planning and conservation area selection.

Forecasting the Business Performance of Restaurants on Social Commerce

  • Supamit BOONTA;Kanjana HINTHAW
    • 유통과학연구
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    • 제22권4호
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    • pp.11-22
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    • 2024
  • Purpose: This research delves into the various factors that influence the performance of restaurant businesses on social commerce platforms in Bangkok, Thailand. The study considers both internal and external factors, including but not limited to business characteristics and location. Moreover, this research also analyzes the effects of employing multiple social commerce platforms on business efficiency and explores the underlying reasons for such effects. Research design, data, and methodology: Restaurants can be classified into different price ranges: low, medium, and high. To further investigate, we employed natural language processing AI to analyze online reviews and evaluate algorithm performance using machine learning techniques. We aimed to develop a model to gauge customer satisfaction with restaurants across different price categories effectively. Results: According to the research findings, several factors significantly impact restaurant groups in the low and mid-price ranges. Among these factors are population density and the number of seats at the restaurant. On the other hand, in the mid-and high-price ranges, the price levels of the food and drinks offered by the restaurant play a crucial role in determining customer satisfaction. Furthermore, the correlation between different social commerce platforms can significantly affect the business performance of high-price range restaurant groups. Finally, the level of online review sentiment has been found to influence customer decision-making across all restaurant types significantly. Conclusions: The study emphasizes that restaurants' characteristics based on their price level differ significantly, and social commerce platforms have the potential to affect one another. It is worth noting that the sentiment expressed in online reviews has a more significant impact on customer decision-making than any other factor, regardless of the type of restaurant in question.

Effect of single nucleotide polymorphism on the total number of piglets born per parity of three different pig breeds

  • Do, Kyoung-Tag;Jung, Soon-Woo;Park, Kyung-Do;Na, Chong-Sam
    • Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
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    • 제31권5호
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    • pp.628-635
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    • 2018
  • Objective: To determine the effects of genomic breeding values (GBV) and single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) on the total number of piglets born (TNB) in 3 pig breeds (Berkshire, Landrace, and Yorkshire). Methods: After collecting genomic information (Porcine SNP BeadChip) and phenotypic TNB records for each breed, the effects of GBV and SNP were estimated by using single step best linear unbiased prediction (ssBLUP) method. Results: The heritability estimates for TNB in Berkshire, Landrace, and Yorkshire breeds were 0.078, 0.107, and 0.121, respectively. The breeding value estimates for TNB in Berkshire, Landrace, and Yorkshire breeds were in the range of -1.34 to 1.47 heads, -1.79 to 1.87 heads, and -2.60 to 2.94 heads, respectively. Of sows having records for TNB, the reliability of breeding value for individuals with SNP information was higher than that for individuals without SNP information. Distributions of the SNP effects on TNB did not follow gamma distribution. Most SNP effects were near zero. Only a few SNPs had large effects. The numbers of SNPs with absolute value of more than 4 standard deviations in Berkshire, Landrace, and Yorkshire breeds were 11, 8, and 19, respectively. There was no SNP with absolute value of more than 5 standard deviations in Berkshire or Landrace. However, in Yorkshire, four SNPs (ASGA 0089457, ASGA0103374, ALGA0111816, and ALGA0098882) had absolute values of more than 5 standard deviations. Conclusion: There was no common SNP with large effect among breeds. This might be due to the large genetic composition differences and the small size of reference population. For the precise evaluation of genetic performance of individuals using a genomic selection method, it may be necessary to establish the appropriate size of reference population.

인천에서 서식지 환경과 토지 이용이 청개구리 (Hyla japonica) 수도에 미치는 영향 (Effects of Habitat Environment and Land Use on the Abundance of Japanese Tree Frog (Hyla japonica) in Incheon, Korea)

  • 박소현;조현석;진승남;조강현
    • Ecology and Resilient Infrastructure
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    • 제4권4호
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    • pp.200-206
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    • 2017
  • 도시화로 인한 서식지의 훼손과 단편화는 전세계적으로 양서류에게 큰 위협이 되고 있다. 본 연구에서는 도시화가 청개구리의 분포와 수도에 미치는 영향을 파악하고자, 인천와 그 주변에 위치한 18개 논에서 청음으로 청개구리의 수도를 측정하고 서식지 환경과 토지 이용을 조사하였다. 인천과 주변 논에서 청개구리의 수도는 0 - 17마리 / 서식지 또는 0 - 41마리 / ha이었다. 청개구리의 수도는 서식지와 도로와의 거리가 멀어짐에 따라서 서식지의 둘레길이 면적이 켜질수록 증가하였다. 일반적인 예측과는 달리 청개구리의 밀도는 서식지의 크기와 음의 상관을, 주변의 토지이용 강도와는 양의 상관관계를 보였다. 따라서 도시화에 의하여 서식지 면적이 감소하고 주변이 개발됨에 따라서 청개구리리가 좁은 서식지로 집중화될 수 있다고 생각된다.