• Title/Summary/Keyword: plant uncertainty

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Development of a Basic Wood Density for Carbon Accounting in Bamboo Forests (대나무 탄소계정을 위한 목재기본밀도 개발)

  • Eunji Hae;Jaeyeop Chung;Sunjung Lee;Hyejung Roh;Yeongmo Son
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.112 no.2
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    • pp.188-194
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    • 2023
  • This study aimed to derive the basic wood density, one of several carbon emission factors, for carbon accounting of bamboo forests in Korea. Bamboo is mainly distributed in Jeollanam-do and Gyeongsangnam-do provinces, and 101 sample trees were selected for each of the three species (Phyllostachys nigra var. henonis, P. bambusoides, and P. pubescens). The basic wood density derivation used the KS F 2098 method. The measurements showed that the basic wood density was 0.83 g/cm3 for P. nigra var. henonis, 0.81 g/cm3 for P. bambusoides, and 0.72 g/cm3 for P. pubescens. However, the bamboo distribution area in Korea is not very large, and P. pubescens grows in one area only. Therefore, the basic wood density that can be applied to bamboo was 0.79 g/cm3. Evaluation of the uncertainty of the extracted basic wood density showed a very low value of 1.61%, which confirmed the reliability of the basic wood density derived from this analysis. The basic wood density, biomass expansion factor, and root-to-shoot ratio were used to calculate the carbon storage capacity of one bamboo plant and expanded to calculate the capacity for a hectare of bamboo. Carbon storage and absorption of bamboo were calculated by applying a carbon-emission factor, such as the basic wood density. These study results are expected to contribute to the carbon-neutral policy and forest management direction in Korea.

Seismic Safety Assessment of the Turbine-Generator Foundation using Probabilistic Structural Reliability Analysis (확률론적 구조신뢰성해석을 이용한 터빈발전기 기초의 지진 안전성 평가)

  • Joe, Yang-Hee;Kim, Jae-Suk;Han, Sung-Ho
    • Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.33-44
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    • 2008
  • Most of the civil structure - bridges, offshore structures, plant, etc. - have been designed by the classical approaches which deal with all the design parameters as deterministic variables. However, some more advanced techniques are required to evaluate the inherent randomness and uncertainty of each design variable. In this research, a seismic safety assessment algorithm based on the structural reliability analysis has been formulated and computerized for more reasonable seismic design of turbine-generator foundations. The formulation takes the design parameters of the system and loading properties as random variables. Using the proposed method, various kinds of parametric studies have been performed and probabilistic characteristics of the resulted structural responses have been evaluated. Afterwards, the probabilistic safety of the system has been quantitatively evaluated and finally presented as the reliability indexes and failure probabilities. The proposed procedure is expected to be used as a fundamental tool to improve the existing design techniques of turbine-generator foundations.

Prediction and Evaluation of Schedule Exceptions on the EPC Projects of Overseas Plants (플랜트 프로젝트 일정위험 예외상황 예측 및 평가)

  • Sung, Hongsuk;Jung, Jong-yun;Park, Chulsoon
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.39 no.4
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    • pp.72-80
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    • 2016
  • The market size of plant projects in overseas is so large that domestic EPC project contractors are actively seeking the overseas projects and then trying to meet completion plans since successful fulfillment of these projects can provide great opportunities for them to expand into new foreign markets. International EPC projects involve all of the uncertainties common to domestic projects as well as uncertainties specific to foreign projects including marine transportation, customs, regulations, nationality, culture and so on. When overseas project gets off-schedule, the resulting uncertainty may trigger unexpected exceptions and then critical effects to the project performance. It usually require much more time and costs to encounter these exceptions in foreign sites compared to domestic project sites. Therefore, an exception handling approach is required to manage exceptions effectively for successful project progress in foreign project sites. In this research, we proposed a methodology for prediction and evaluation of exceptions caused by risks in international EPC projects based on sensitivity analysis and Bayesian Networks. First, we identified project schedule risks and related exceptions, which may meet during the fulfillment of foreign EPC projects that is performed in a sequence of engineering, procurement, preparatory manufacture, foreign shipping, construction, inspection and modification activities, and affect project performance, using literature review and expert interviews. The impact of exceptions to the schedule delay were also identified. Second, we proposed a methodology to predict the occurrence of exceptions caused by project risks and evaluate them. Using sensitivity analysis, we can identify activities that critically affect schedule delay and need to focus by priority. Then, we use Bayesian Networks to predict and evaluate exceptions. Third, we applied the proposed methodology to an international EPC project example to validate the proposed approach. Finally, we concluded the research with the further research topics. We expect that the proposed approach can be extended to apply in exception management in project management.

Development of a 4D Information based Integrated Management System for Geothermal Power Plant Drilling Project (지열발전 시추프로젝트의 4D 정보화기반 통합관리 시스템 개발)

  • Lee, Seung Soo;Kim, Kwang Yeom;Shin, Hyu-Soung
    • Tunnel and Underground Space
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    • v.24 no.3
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    • pp.234-242
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    • 2014
  • Deep drilling project should be managed systematically and efficiently because it is significantly influenced by various related factors having uncertainty and high risk in terms of economy and effective management. In particular, drilling project involves participants from various sectors including necessary service company and it also needs their collaboration by sharing related information occurring at drilling process in order to secure efficient performance management. We developed 4D (3D + time) information based visualization system for progress management by combining 3D design model and predicted optimized control parameters for each section in geothermal well design. We also applied PDM (precedence diagramming method) to the system in order to setup the effective process model and hooked it up to 3D information based on precedence relation and required time for informatized process network.

Online Automatic Gauge Controller Tuning Method by using Neuro-Fuzzy Model in a Hot Rolling Plant

  • Choi, Sung-Hoo;Lee, Young-Kow;Kim, Sang-Woo;Hong, Sung-Chul
    • 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2005.06a
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    • pp.1539-1544
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    • 2005
  • The gauge control of the fishing mill is very important because more and more accurately sized hot rolled coils are demanded by customers recently. Because the mill constant and the plasticity coefficient vary with the specifications of the mill, the classification of steel, the strip width, the strip thickness and the slab temperature, the variation of these parameters should be considered in the automatic gauge control system(AGC). Generally, the AGC gain is used to minimize the effect of the uncertain parameters. In a practical field, operators set the AGC gain as a constant value calculated by FSU (Finishing-mill Set-Up model) and it is not changed during the operating time. In this paper, the thickness data signals that occupy different frequency bands are respectively extracted by adaptive filters and then the main cause of the thickness variation is analyzed. Additionally, the AGC gain is adaptively tuned to reduce this variation using the online tuning model. Especially ANFIS(Adaptive-Neuro-based Fuzzy Interface System) which unifies both fuzzy logics and neural networks, is used for this gain adjustment system because fuzzy logics use the professionals' experiences about the uncertainty and the nonlinearity of the system. Simulation is performed by using POSCO's data and the results show that proposed on-line gain adjustment algorithm has a good performance.

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Development of Regression Model to evaluate the indirect costs of Life-Cycle Costs (생애주기비용의 간접비용 산출을 위한 Regression Model의 개발)

  • 조효남;이종순;김충완;박경훈
    • Proceedings of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute Conference
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    • 2004.10a
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    • pp.150-156
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    • 2004
  • Though the concept of Life-Cycle Cost (LCC) itself is not new, its effectiveness for planning, design, rehabilitation and maintenance/management of civil infrastructures is becoming increasingly recognized. For the decision problems as in the case of the LCC of plant facilities, equipments, bridge decks, pavements, etc., the Life-Cycle Cost Analysis (LCCA) is relatively simple, and thus its practical implementation is rather straightforward. However, when it comes to major infrastructures such as bridge, tunnels, underground facilities, etc., the LCCA problem becomes extremely complex because lack of cost data associated with various direct and indirect losses, and the absence of uncertainty data available for the assessment as well. As a result, the LCC studies have been largely limited only to those relatively simple LCCA problems of planning or conceptual design for making decisions. Accordingly, in the recent years, the researchers have pursued extensive studies on the LCC effectiveness mostly related to LCC models and frameworks for civil infrastructures. Moreover, recently the demand on the practical application of LCC effective decisions in design and maintenance is rapidly growing unprecedently in civil engineering practice. Indirction cost is very important on LCC formulation. But that is very difficult and complicate the estimation every LCC. The objective of this paper is to suggest efficient regression model for the estimation of indirect cost approach to the practical application of LCC for the design and rehabilitation of civil. infrastructures considering traffic, traffic network, detour condition, and workzone condition. In this paper, it performed the sensitivity analysis and correlation analysis of parameter for development of regression model of inflection cost.

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Structural vibration control using $H_{\infty}$ control theory : unceratinty model ($H_{\infty}$제어이론을 이용한 구조진동제어 - 불확실성 모델)

  • 송병석
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society for Noise and Vibration Engineering Conference
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    • 1995.04a
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    • pp.240-245
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    • 1995
  • 제어이론의 역사적 발전사를 고찰해보면 1930년대부터 1960년대까지를 고전 제어(classical control) 시대로 분류되고 이때 주로 사용되었던 용어들은 주파수역(frequency domain)에서 사용된 개념인 극점(pole), 영점(zero), Nyquist, 근궤적(root-Locus) 선도(plot)등으로 대표된다. 그 다음단계인 현대 제어(modern control) 시대 (1960년대-1980년대)때는 새로운 개념들이 도입 되었는데 시간역(time domain)에서 사용되는 상태공간(state-space) 모델, 가제어성(controllability), 가관측성(observability), Kalman 필터, LQG 제어 등이다. 1980년대부터 현재까지를 강인제어(robust control) 시대로 분류하는데 이것의 특징들은 극점이나 영점 대신 상태공간 모델을 사용하여 주파수역에서 정의되는 개념들인 H$_{\infty}$ 합성법, .$\mu$ 해석법, LQG/LTR 및 QFT, Lyapunov 등으로 대표된다. 현대제어시대때는 제어기 K는 공칭 플랜트 모델 G$_{0}$를 기준으로 설계되었으나 실제로 공칭 플랜트 모델은 실제 플랜트와 항상 같을 수가 없었다. 따라서 실제 플랜트 G는 G=G$_{0}$ + .DELTA.G로 표현되며 여기서 .DELTA.G는 플랜트 불 확실성(plant uncertainty), 즉 실제 플랜트와 공칭 플랜트의 차이를 나타낸 다. 이 플랜트 불확실성은 제어기가 실제 응용되어 사용되었을 때 제대로 작동하지 않는 주요 이유중에 하나이다. 이와 같은 상황에서 안정도 강인성 (stability robustness) 및 성능 강인성(performance rosubtness)의 보장은 상 당히 중요한 문제로 대두되었으며 주어진 플랜트 불확실성하에서 이러한 강이성들이 보장되는 제어이론들 중 H$_{\infty}$ 제어이론이 많이 연구/응용 되고 있다. 특히 공칭 플랜트 모델과 함께 사용되는 플랜트 모델과 함께 사용되는 플랜트 불확실성 모델은 직접적으로 성능 및 안정도에 영향을 미치므로 주의 깊게 선정해야 한다.

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A Study on A Dynamic Reliability Analysis Model (동적신뢰도 평가모델의 연구)

  • 제무성
    • Proceedings of the Korean Reliability Society Conference
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    • 2000.04a
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    • pp.239-246
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    • 2000
  • This paper presents a new dynamic approach for assessing feasibility associated with the implementation of accident management strategies by the operators. This approach includes the combined use of both the concept of reliability physics and a dynamic event tree generation scheme. The reliability physics is based on the concept of a comparison between two competing variables, i.e., the requirement and the achievement parameter, while the dynamic event tree generation scheme on the continuous generation of the possible event sequences at every branch point up to the desired solution. This approach is applied to a cavity flooding strategy in a reference plant, which is to supply water into the reactor cavity using emergency fire systems in the station blackout sequence. The MAAP code and Latin Hypercube sampling technique are used to determine the uncertainty of the requirement parameter. It has been demonstrated that this combined methodology may contribute to assessing the success likelihood of the operator actions required during accidents and therefore to developing the accident management procedures.

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DIAMETRAL CREEP PREDICTION OF THE PRESSURE TUBES IN CANDU REACTORS USING A BUNDLE POSITION-WISE LINEAR MODEL

  • Lee, Sung-Han;Kim, Dong-Su;Lee, Sim-Won;No, Young-Gyu;Na, Man-Gyun;Lee, Jae-Yong;Kim, Dong-Hoon;Jang, Chang-Heui
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.43 no.3
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    • pp.301-308
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    • 2011
  • The diametral creep of pressure tubes (PTs) in CANDU (CANada Deuterium Uranium) reactors is one of the principal aging mechanisms governing the heat transfer and hydraulic degradation of the heat transport system (HTS). PT diametral creep leads to diametral expansion, which affects the thermal hydraulic characteristics of the coolant channels and the critical heat flux (CHF). The CHF is a major parameter determining the critical channel power (CCP), which is used in the trip setpoint calculations of regional overpower protection (ROP) systems. Therefore, it is essential to predict PT diametral creep in CANDU reactors. PT diametral creep is caused mainly by fast neutron irradiation, temperature and applied stress. The objective of this study was to develop a bundle position-wise linear model (BPLM) to predict PT diametral creep employing previously measured PT diameters and HTS operating conditions. The linear model was optimized using a genetic algorithm and was devised based on a bundle position because it is expected that each bundle position in a PT channel has inherent characteristics. The proposed BPLM for predicting PT diametral creep was confirmed using the operating data of the Wolsung nuclear power plant in Korea. The linear model was able to predict PT diametral creep accurately.

Tracking control of variable stiffness hysteretic-systems using linear-parameter-varying gain-scheduled controller

  • Pasala, D.T.R.;Nagarajaiah, S.;Grigoriadis, K.M.
    • Smart Structures and Systems
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    • v.9 no.4
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    • pp.373-392
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    • 2012
  • Tracking control of systems with variable stiffness hysteresis using a gain-scheduled (GS) controller is developed in this paper. Variable stiffness hysteretic system is represented as quasi linear parameter dependent system with known bounds on parameters. Assuming that the parameters can be measured or estimated in real-time, a GS controller that ensures the performance and the stability of the closed-loop system over the entire range of parameter variation is designed. The proposed method is implemented on a spring-mass system which consists of a semi-active independently variable stiffness (SAIVS) device that exhibits hysteresis and precisely controllable stiffness change in real-time. The SAIVS system with variable stiffness hysteresis is represented as quasi linear parameter varying (LPV) system with two parameters: linear time-varying stiffness (parameter with slow variation rate) and stiffness of the friction-hysteresis (parameter with high variation rate). The proposed LPV-GS controller can accommodate both slow and fast varying parameter, which was not possible with the controllers proposed in the prior studies. Effectiveness of the proposed controller is demonstrated by comparing the results with a fixed robust $\mathcal{H}_{\infty}$ controller that assumes the parameter variation as an uncertainty. Superior performance of the LPV-GS over the robust $\mathcal{H}_{\infty}$ controller is demonstrated for varying stiffness hysteresis of SAIVS device and for different ranges of tracking displacements. The LPV-GS controller is capable of adapting to any parameter changes whereas the $\mathcal{H}_{\infty}$ controller is effective only when the system parameters are in the vicinity of the nominal plant parameters for which the controller is designed. The robust $\mathcal{H}_{\infty}$ controller becomes unstable under large parameter variations but the LPV-GS will ensure stability and guarantee the desired closed-loop performance.