• New & Renewable Energy
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• v.18 no.3
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• pp.32-42
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• 2022

Rapid spread of intermittent renewable energy has amplified the instability and uncertainty of power systems. The Korea Power Exchange (KPX) promoted efficient management by opening the power brokerage market in 2019. By combining small-scale intermittent renewable energy with a flexible facility through the power brokerage market, the KPX aims to develop a virtual power plant system that will allow the conversion of existing intermittent renewable energy into collective power plants. However, the participation rate of renewable power owners in the power brokerage market is relatively low because other markets such as the small solar power contract market or the Korea Electric Power Corporation power purchase agreement are more profitable. In this study, we used a choice experiment to determine the attributes affecting the participation rate in the power brokerage market for 113 renewable power owners and estimate the value of the power brokerage market. According to the estimation results, a low smart meter installation cost, low profit variations, long contract periods, and few clearances increased the probability of participation. Moreover, the average value of the power brokerage market was estimated to be 2.63 million KRW per power owner.

• Journal of Nuclear Fuel Cycle and Waste Technology(JNFCWT)
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• v.20 no.4
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• pp.541-550
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• 2022

When decommissioning nuclear power plant (NPP), the first task performed is cost estimation. This is an important task in terms of securing adequate decommissioning funds and managing the schedule. Therefore, many countries and institutions are conducting continuous research and also developing and using many programs for cost estimation. However, the cost estimated for decommissioning an NPP typically differs from the actual cost incurred in its decommissioning. This is caused by insufficient experience in decommissioning NPPs or lack of decommissioning cost data. This uncertainty in cost estimation can be in general compensated for by applying a contingency. However, reflecting an appropriate standard for the contingency is also difficult. Therefore, in this study, data analysis was conducted based on the contingency guideline suggested by each institution and the actual cost of decommissioning the NPP. Subsequently, TLG Service, Inc.'s process, which recently suggested specific decommissioning costs, was matched with ISDC (International Structure for Decommissioning Costing)'s work breakdown structure (WBS). Based on the matching result, the guideline for applying the contingency for ISDC's WBS Level 1 were presented. This study will be helpful in cost estimation by applying appropriate contingency guidelines in countries or institutions that have no experience in decommissioning NPPs.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.55 no.11
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• pp.4181-4190
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• 2023

Nuclear power plants are subjected to various processes during decommissioning, including cutting, decontamination, disposal, and treatment. The cutting of massive bio-shields is a significant step in the decommissioning process. Cutting is performed near the target structure, and during this process, workers are exposed to potential radioactive elements. However, studies considering worker exposure management during such cutting operations are limited. Furthermore, dismantling a nuclear power plant under certain circumstances may result in the unnecessary radiation exposure of workers and an increase in secondary waste generation. In this study, a cutting scenario was formulated considering the bio-shield as a representative structure. The specifications of a standard South Korean radioactive waste disposal drum were used as the basic conditions. Additionally, we explored the hot-to-cold and cold-to-hot methods, with and without the application of polishing during decontamination. For evaluating various scenarios, different cutting time points up to 30 years after permanent shutdown were considered, and cutting speeds of 1-10nullm²/h were applied to account for the variability and uncertainty attributable to the design output and specifications. The obtained results provide fundamental guidelines for establishing cutting methods suitable for large structures.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.55 no.12
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• pp.4607-4616
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• 2023

We implement machine learning regression models to predict peak pressures of primary and secondary systems, a major safety concern in Loss Of Condenser Vacuum (LOCV) accident. We selected the Multi-dimensional Analysis of Reactor Safety-KINS standard (MARS-KS) code to analyze the LOCV accident, and the reference plant is the Korean Optimized Power Reactor 1000MWe (OPR1000). eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) is selected as a machine learning tool. The MARS-KS code is used to generate LOCV accident data and the data is applied to train the machine learning model. Hyperparameter optimization is performed using a simulated annealing. The randomly generated combination of initial conditions within the operating range is put into the input of the XGBoost model to predict the peak pressure. These initial conditions that cause peak pressure with MARS-KS generate the results. After such a process, the error between the predicted value and the code output is calculated. Uncertainty about the machine learning model is also calculated to verify the model accuracy. The machine learning model presented in this paper successfully identifies a combination of initial conditions that produce a more conservative peak pressure than the values calculated with existing methodologies.

• Journal of Radiation Industry
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• v.17 no.2
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• pp.209-217
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• 2023

The biosphere has important function in the safety assessment of a radioactive waste disposal facility. A biosphere model in the safety assessment needs various input data that contain significantly inherent uncertainties. This paper reviews the effects of the input data on the radiological impact assessment from main radionuclides such as ¹⁴C and ⁹⁹Tc in the biosphere model. In addition, it is confirmed that the safety criteria is met, when the conservative input data for the intake rate, soil to plant concentration ratio, and distribution coefficients of the radionuclides are applied and probabilistic analysis are conducted in the biosphere model. Nevertheless, it is required to generate site-specific input data for the confidence building and reduce excessive conservatism in the biosphere model.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.56 no.10
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• pp.4296-4306
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• 2024

The Fukushima accident showed that the safety of multiple nuclear power plants (NPPs) at the same site could be jeopardized simultaneously. Since then, many studies have focused on developing strategies to prevent the spread of multi-unit accidents, with numerous countries establishing strategies to use mobile equipment. However, mobile equipment strategies are inherently accompanied by a high degree of uncertainty regarding operation success and duration because multiple organizations and personnel interact in various ways during multi-unit accident situations. Furthermore, supplementing current fixed equipment with additional mobile equipment requires extra resources. Therefore, cross-tie strategies that use currently installed fixed equipment can provide additional means to manage site risk with relatively few additional costs. This study proposes a multi-unit probabilistic safety assessment-based risk evaluation framework for utilizing cross-tie systems in NPPs and a modeling methodology to quantify the effectiveness of the cross-tie strategies. A case study was conducted to evaluate the risk reduction from using cross-tie strategies for emergency diesel generators and alternate AC diesel generators, which are power systems utilized in multi-unit loss of offsite power initiating events. It is expected that the developed framework and methodology can be utilized for other types of cross-tie strategies as well.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.25 no.3
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• pp.129-141
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• 2023

Crop models have been used to predict yield under diverse environmental and cultivation conditions, which can be used to support decisions on the management of forage crop. Cultivar parameters are one of required inputs to crop models in order to represent genetic properties for a given forage cultivar. The objectives of this study were to compare calibration and ensemble approaches in order to minimize the uncertainty of crop yield estimates using the SIMPLE crop model. Cultivar parameters were calibrated using Log-likelihood (LL) and Generic Composite Similarity Measure (GCSM) as an objective function for Metropolis-Hastings (MH) algorithm. In total, 20 sets of cultivar parameters were generated for each method. Two types of ensemble approach. First type of ensemble approach was the average of model outputs (E_em), using individual parameters. The second ensemble approach was model output (E_pm) of cultivar parameter obtained by averaging given 20 sets of parameters. Comparison was done for each cultivar and for each error calculation methods. 'Jowoo' and 'Yeongwoo', which are forage rice cultivars used in Korea, were subject to the parameter calibration. Yield data were obtained from experiment fields at Suwon, Jeonju, Naju and I ksan. Data for 2013, 2014 and 2016 were used for parameter calibration. For validation, yield data reported from 2016 to 2018 at Suwon was used. Initial calibration indicated that genetic coefficients obtained by LL were distributed in a narrower range than coefficients obtained by GCSM. A two-sample t-test was performed to compare between different methods of ensemble approaches and no significant difference was found between them. Uncertainty of GCSM can be neutralized by adjusting the acceptance probability. The other ensemble method (E_pm) indicates that the uncertainty can be reduced with less computation using ensemble approach.

• Fire Science and Engineering
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• v.31 no.2
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• pp.52-60
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• 2017

Numerical simulations were performed to evaluate the habitability of an operator for a cabinet fire in the main control room of a nuclear power plant presented in NUREG-1934. To this end, a Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS), as a representative fire model, was used. As the criteria for determining the habitability of operator, toxic products, such as CO, were also considered, as well as radiative heat flux, upper layer temperature, smoke layer height, and optical density of smoke. As a result, the probabilities of exceeding the criteria for habitability were evaluated through the sensitivity analysis of the major input parameters and the uncertainty analysis of fire model for various fire scenarios, based on V&V (Verification and Validation). Sensitivity analyses of the maximum heat release rate, CO and soot yields, showed that the habitable time and the limit criterion, which determined the habitability, could be changed. The present methodology will be a realistic alternative to enhancing the reliability for a habitability evaluation in the main control room using uncertain information of cabinet fires.

• Tunnel and Underground Space
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• v.12 no.1
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• pp.52-69
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• 2002

The WIPP (Waste Isolation Pilot Plant), located 42km east of Carlsbad, New Mexico (NM), in bedded salt 655m below the surface, is a mined repository constructed by the US DOE for the permanent disposal of transuranic (TRU) wastes generated by activities related to defence of the US since 1970. Its historical disposal operation began in March 1999 following receipt of a final permit from the State of NM after a positive certification decision for the WIPP was issued by the EPA in 1998, as the first licensed facility in the US for the deep geologic disposal of radioactive wastes. The CCA (Compliance Certification Application) for the WIPP that the DOE submitted to the EPA in 1966 was supported by an extensive performance assessment (PA) carried out by Sandia National Laboratories (SNL), with so-called 1996 PA. Even though such PA methodologies could be greatly different from the way we consider for HLW disposal in Korea largely due to quite different geologic formations in which repository are likely to be located, a review on lots of works done through the WIPP PA studies could be the most important lessons that we can learn from in view of current situation in Korea where an initial phase of conceptual studies on HLW disposal has been just started. The objective of this art report is an overview of the methodology used in the recent WIPP PA to support the US DOE WIPP CCA and some relevant results completed by SNL.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.43 no.2
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• pp.131-138
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• 2010

Due to the increased water demand and severe drought as an effect of the global warming, the effluent from wastewater treatment plants becomes considered as an alternative water source to supply agricultural, industrial, and public (gardening) water demand. The effluent from the wastewater treatment plant is a sustainable water source because of its good quality and stable amount of water discharge. In this study, the water reuse system was developed to minimize total construction cost to cope with the uncertain water demand in future using two-stage stochastic linear programming with binary variables. The pipes in the water reuse network were constructed in two stages of which in the first stage, the water demands of users are assumed to be known, while the water demands in the second stage have uncertainty in the predicted value. However, the water reuse system has to be designed now when the future water demands are not known precisely. Therefore, the construction of a pipe parallel with the existing one was allowed to meet the increased water demands in the second stage. As a result, the trade-off of construction costs between a pipe with large diameter and two pipes having small diameters was evaluated and the optimal solution was found. Three scenarios for the future water demand were selected and a hypothetical water reuse network considering the uncertainties was optimized. The results provide the information about the economies of scale in the water reuse network and the long range water supply plan.