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A Study on Industries's Leading at the Stock Market in Korea - Gradual Diffusion of Information and Cross-Asset Return Predictability- (산업의 주식시장 선행성에 관한 실증분석 - 자산간 수익률 예측 가능성 -)

  • Kim Jong-Kwon
    • Proceedings of the Safety Management and Science Conference
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    • 2004.11a
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    • pp.355-380
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    • 2004
  • I test the hypothesis that the gradual diffusion of information across asset markets leads to cross-asset return predictability in Korea. Using thirty-six industry portfolios and the broad market index as our test assets, I establish several key results. First, a number of industries such as semiconductor, electronics, metal, and petroleum lead the stock market by up to one month. In contrast, the market, which is widely followed, only leads a few industries. Importantly, an industry's ability to lead the market is correlated with its propensity to forecast various indicators of economic activity such as industrial production growth. Consistent with our hypothesis, these findings indicate that the market reacts with a delay to information in industry returns about its fundamentals because information diffuses only gradually across asset markets. Traditional theories of asset pricing assume that investors have unlimited information-processing capacity. However, this assumption does not hold for many traders, even the most sophisticated ones. Many economists recognize that investors are better characterized as being only boundedly rational(see Shiller(2000), Sims(2201)). Even from casual observation, few traders can pay attention to all sources of information much less understand their impact on the prices of assets that they trade. Indeed, a large literature in psychology documents the extent to which even attention is a precious cognitive resource(see, eg., Kahneman(1973), Nisbett and Ross(1980), Fiske and Taylor(1991)). A number of papers have explored the implications of limited information- processing capacity for asset prices. I will review this literature in Section II. For instance, Merton(1987) develops a static model of multiple stocks in which investors only have information about a limited number of stocks and only trade those that they have information about. Related models of limited market participation include brennan(1975) and Allen and Gale(1994). As a result, stocks that are less recognized by investors have a smaller investor base(neglected stocks) and trade at a greater discount because of limited risk sharing. More recently, Hong and Stein(1999) develop a dynamic model of a single asset in which information gradually diffuses across the investment public and investors are unable to perform the rational expectations trick of extracting information from prices. Hong and Stein(1999). My hypothesis is that the gradual diffusion of information across asset markets leads to cross-asset return predictability. This hypothesis relies on two key assumptions. The first is that valuable information that originates in one asset reaches investors in other markets only with a lag, i.e. news travels slowly across markets. The second assumption is that because of limited information-processing capacity, many (though not necessarily all) investors may not pay attention or be able to extract the information from the asset prices of markets that they do not participate in. These two assumptions taken together leads to cross-asset return predictability. My hypothesis would appear to be a very plausible one for a few reasons. To begin with, as pointed out by Merton(1987) and the subsequent literature on segmented markets and limited market participation, few investors trade all assets. Put another way, limited participation is a pervasive feature of financial markets. Indeed, even among equity money managers, there is specialization along industries such as sector or market timing funds. Some reasons for this limited market participation include tax, regulatory or liquidity constraints. More plausibly, investors have to specialize because they have their hands full trying to understand the markets that they do participate in

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Analysis of Heating Effect of an Infrared Heating System in a Small Venlo-type Glasshouse (소형 벤로형 유리온실에서 적외선등 난방 시스템의 난방효과 분석)

  • Lim, Mi Young;Ko, Chung Ho;Lee, Sang Bok;Kim, Hyo Kyeong;Bae, Yong Han;Kim, Young Bok;Yoon, Yong Cheol;Jeong, Byoung Ryong
    • FLOWER RESEARCH JOURNAL
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.186-192
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    • 2010
  • An infrared heating system, installed in a small venlo-type glasshouse ($280m^2$) in Gyeongsang National University, Jinju, Korea, was used to investigate its heating effect with potted Phalaenopsis, Schefflera arboricola 'Hongkong', Ficus elastica 'Variegata', and Rosa hybrida 'Yellow King' as the test plants. Temperature changes in test plants with the system turned 'On' and 'Off' were measured by using an infrared camera and the consumption of electricity by this infrared heating system was measured and analyzed. In potted Phalaenopsis, when the set air temperature of the greenhouse was $18^{\circ}C$, temperature of leaves and the growing medium were $22.8{\sim}27^{\circ}C$ and $21.3{\sim}24.3^{\circ}C$, respectively. In such tall plants as Schefflera arboricola 'Hongkong' and Ficus elastica 'Variegata', the upper part showed the highest temperature of 24.0 and $26.9^{\circ}C$, respectively. From the results of temperature change measurements, the plant temperatures were near or above the set point temperatures with some fluctuations depending on the position or distance from the infrared heating system. When air temperature between night and dawn dropped sharply, plant temperatures were maintained close to the set temperature ($18^{\circ}C$). There was a significant difference between 'On' and 'Off' states of the infrared heating system in average temperatures of root zone and leaf: 21.8 and $17.8^{\circ}C$ with the system 'On' and 20.4 and $15.5^{\circ}C$ with the system 'Off', respectively, in a cut rose Rosa hybrida 'Yellow King'. The heating load was about $24,850{\sim}35,830kcal{\cdot}h^{-1}$, which comes to about 27,000~40,000 won in Korean currency when calculated in terms of the cost of heating by a hot water heating system heated by petroleum. The cost for heating by the infrared heating system was about 35% of that of a hot water heating system. With the infrared heating system, the air temperature during the night was maintained slightly lower than the set point air temperature, probably due to the lack of air tightness of the glasshouse. Therefore, glasshouses with an infrared heating system requires further investigation including the installation space of the heat-emitting units, temperature sensor positions, and convection.