• Title/Summary/Keyword: personal knowledge

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VKOSPI Forecasting and Option Trading Application Using SVM (SVM을 이용한 VKOSPI 일 중 변화 예측과 실제 옵션 매매에의 적용)

  • Ra, Yun Seon;Choi, Heung Sik;Kim, Sun Woong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.177-192
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    • 2016
  • Machine learning is a field of artificial intelligence. It refers to an area of computer science related to providing machines the ability to perform their own data analysis, decision making and forecasting. For example, one of the representative machine learning models is artificial neural network, which is a statistical learning algorithm inspired by the neural network structure of biology. In addition, there are other machine learning models such as decision tree model, naive bayes model and SVM(support vector machine) model. Among the machine learning models, we use SVM model in this study because it is mainly used for classification and regression analysis that fits well to our study. The core principle of SVM is to find a reasonable hyperplane that distinguishes different group in the data space. Given information about the data in any two groups, the SVM model judges to which group the new data belongs based on the hyperplane obtained from the given data set. Thus, the more the amount of meaningful data, the better the machine learning ability. In recent years, many financial experts have focused on machine learning, seeing the possibility of combining with machine learning and the financial field where vast amounts of financial data exist. Machine learning techniques have been proved to be powerful in describing the non-stationary and chaotic stock price dynamics. A lot of researches have been successfully conducted on forecasting of stock prices using machine learning algorithms. Recently, financial companies have begun to provide Robo-Advisor service, a compound word of Robot and Advisor, which can perform various financial tasks through advanced algorithms using rapidly changing huge amount of data. Robo-Adviser's main task is to advise the investors about the investor's personal investment propensity and to provide the service to manage the portfolio automatically. In this study, we propose a method of forecasting the Korean volatility index, VKOSPI, using the SVM model, which is one of the machine learning methods, and applying it to real option trading to increase the trading performance. VKOSPI is a measure of the future volatility of the KOSPI 200 index based on KOSPI 200 index option prices. VKOSPI is similar to the VIX index, which is based on S&P 500 option price in the United States. The Korea Exchange(KRX) calculates and announce the real-time VKOSPI index. VKOSPI is the same as the usual volatility and affects the option prices. The direction of VKOSPI and option prices show positive relation regardless of the option type (call and put options with various striking prices). If the volatility increases, all of the call and put option premium increases because the probability of the option's exercise possibility increases. The investor can know the rising value of the option price with respect to the volatility rising value in real time through Vega, a Black-Scholes's measurement index of an option's sensitivity to changes in the volatility. Therefore, accurate forecasting of VKOSPI movements is one of the important factors that can generate profit in option trading. In this study, we verified through real option data that the accurate forecast of VKOSPI is able to make a big profit in real option trading. To the best of our knowledge, there have been no studies on the idea of predicting the direction of VKOSPI based on machine learning and introducing the idea of applying it to actual option trading. In this study predicted daily VKOSPI changes through SVM model and then made intraday option strangle position, which gives profit as option prices reduce, only when VKOSPI is expected to decline during daytime. We analyzed the results and tested whether it is applicable to real option trading based on SVM's prediction. The results showed the prediction accuracy of VKOSPI was 57.83% on average, and the number of position entry times was 43.2 times, which is less than half of the benchmark (100 times). A small number of trading is an indicator of trading efficiency. In addition, the experiment proved that the trading performance was significantly higher than the benchmark.

Empirical Study of Key Factors in Satisfaction with Subway Services (지하철 이용만족도 결정요인에 관한 실증적 연구 -서울지역을 중심으로-)

  • Shim, Jong-Seop;Jeon, Ki-Heung
    • Korean Business Review
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    • v.13
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    • pp.49-66
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    • 2000
  • Despite the fact that understanding customers satisfaction with transportation services is a subject of great importance, authors, so far, found no systematic researches referred to that issue. From this point, studying the satisfaction with subways services can be extremely useful. Empirical study of key factors in the satisfaction with subway services is the departure point, which holds as objectives, and we believe, will contribute to overall increasing in the number of subways services used and in the amount of public benefits derived from that usage. In order to achieve these goals: First, several items referred to some key factors in the satisfaction of subway usage were systemized. Second, a research of specific weights attached to those key factors by subway passengers was conducted. Knowledge of the satisfaction variables system can provide deep insights into ones perceptual experience when using a subway. The results were as follows: Various interrelated factors compose a passengers satisfaction with subway services. People do not just use subway passively; a number of key factors, like physical and personal services, exact timing, easiness to access etc. determine the passengers satisfaction with subway. In order to find out specific weights of these key factors multiple regression analysis was employed. Results showed that satisfaction with subway is determined by (in order of importance) easiness to access, quality of physical services, friendliness of working stuff and timing exactness. According to the findings, passengers do not use subway as a simple mean of transportation, rather they perceive it as a complex combination of environmental elements and overall satisfaction depends on these various factors. Therefore, to learn passengers satisfaction with subways services, passengers subway experience must be thoroughly studied and analyzed, and this is where papers value resides.

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An Exploration of the Influencing Factors and Development of Effective Models of Science Teacher Efficiency (과학 교사의 효능감 관련 요인 탐색을 통한 과학 교사 효능감 형성 모형 개발)

  • Choi, Sung-Youn;Kim, Sung-Won
    • Journal of The Korean Association For Science Education
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    • v.30 no.6
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    • pp.693-718
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    • 2010
  • This study investigated secondary school science teachers' experiences to explore the influencing factors in science teachers efficiency (STE). The participants, thirty three secondary school science teachers who have more than four years of teaching experience, were interviewed about describing each teacher's experience throughout one's years of teaching. The grounded theory introduced by Strauss and Corbin (1998) was used to analyze the data in this study. The results of paradigm analysis revealed that STE is influenced by 125 concepts, 38 sub-categories, and 16 categories. In a paradigm model, the central phenomenon was 'constructing STE', and the causal condition was 'want to be a teacher' as career choice motivation. The contextual conditions that have an affect on the central phenomenon were 'self awareness of the teacher' and 'social awareness of the teacher.' The mediate conditions, which facilitated or restrained the action/interaction strategies, were 'societal tendency', 'school climate', and 'personal context.' The action/interaction strategies to control the phenomenon were 'following the line,' 'identifying effective teaching strategies,' 'taking teacher education programs,' and 'contributing to school improvement.' The consequences were 'teacher's self awareness', 'challenge,' and 'stagnating in teaching.' The overall conclusion drawn from this research is that, the definition of STE is beliefs in science teachers' capabilities to set up objects in some school teaching context and, organize and execute the course of action required to attain these. Additionally, STE has three dimensions of teacher's behaviors: science instructional efficiency, efficiency in engaging students, and efficiency in managing school conditions. This study offers insight into the nature of STE and theoretical framework. These findings may give science teachers and teacher educators the practical knowledge necessary to build effective training programs and interventions that would help increase STE and facilitate effective teaching.

Development of User Based Recommender System using Social Network for u-Healthcare (사회 네트워크를 이용한 사용자 기반 유헬스케어 서비스 추천 시스템 개발)

  • Kim, Hyea-Kyeong;Choi, Il-Young;Ha, Ki-Mok;Kim, Jae-Kyeong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.181-199
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    • 2010
  • As rapid progress of population aging and strong interest in health, the demand for new healthcare service is increasing. Until now healthcare service has provided post treatment by face-to-face manner. But according to related researches, proactive treatment is resulted to be more effective for preventing diseases. Particularly, the existing healthcare services have limitations in preventing and managing metabolic syndrome such a lifestyle disease, because the cause of metabolic syndrome is related to life habit. As the advent of ubiquitous technology, patients with the metabolic syndrome can improve life habit such as poor eating habits and physical inactivity without the constraints of time and space through u-healthcare service. Therefore, lots of researches for u-healthcare service focus on providing the personalized healthcare service for preventing and managing metabolic syndrome. For example, Kim et al.(2010) have proposed a healthcare model for providing the customized calories and rates of nutrition factors by analyzing the user's preference in foods. Lee et al.(2010) have suggested the customized diet recommendation service considering the basic information, vital signs, family history of diseases and food preferences to prevent and manage coronary heart disease. And, Kim and Han(2004) have demonstrated that the web-based nutrition counseling has effects on food intake and lipids of patients with hyperlipidemia. However, the existing researches for u-healthcare service focus on providing the predefined one-way u-healthcare service. Thus, users have a tendency to easily lose interest in improving life habit. To solve such a problem of u-healthcare service, this research suggests a u-healthcare recommender system which is based on collaborative filtering principle and social network. This research follows the principle of collaborative filtering, but preserves local networks (consisting of small group of similar neighbors) for target users to recommend context aware healthcare services. Our research is consisted of the following five steps. In the first step, user profile is created using the usage history data for improvement in life habit. And then, a set of users known as neighbors is formed by the degree of similarity between the users, which is calculated by Pearson correlation coefficient. In the second step, the target user obtains service information from his/her neighbors. In the third step, recommendation list of top-N service is generated for the target user. Making the list, we use the multi-filtering based on user's psychological context information and body mass index (BMI) information for the detailed recommendation. In the fourth step, the personal information, which is the history of the usage service, is updated when the target user uses the recommended service. In the final step, a social network is reformed to continually provide qualified recommendation. For example, the neighbors may be excluded from the social network if the target user doesn't like the recommendation list received from them. That is, this step updates each user's neighbors locally, so maintains the updated local neighbors always to give context aware recommendation in real time. The characteristics of our research as follows. First, we develop the u-healthcare recommender system for improving life habit such as poor eating habits and physical inactivity. Second, the proposed recommender system uses autonomous collaboration, which enables users to prevent dropping and not to lose user's interest in improving life habit. Third, the reformation of the social network is automated to maintain the quality of recommendation. Finally, this research has implemented a mobile prototype system using JAVA and Microsoft Access2007 to recommend the prescribed foods and exercises for chronic disease prevention, which are provided by A university medical center. This research intends to prevent diseases such as chronic illnesses and to improve user's lifestyle through providing context aware and personalized food and exercise services with the help of similar users'experience and knowledge. We expect that the user of this system can improve their life habit with the help of handheld mobile smart phone, because it uses autonomous collaboration to arouse interest in healthcare.

A Case Study on Forecasting Inbound Calls of Motor Insurance Company Using Interactive Data Mining Technique (대화식 데이터 마이닝 기법을 활용한 자동차 보험사의 인입 콜량 예측 사례)

  • Baek, Woong;Kim, Nam-Gyu
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.99-120
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    • 2010
  • Due to the wide spread of customers' frequent access of non face-to-face services, there have been many attempts to improve customer satisfaction using huge amounts of data accumulated throughnon face-to-face channels. Usually, a call center is regarded to be one of the most representative non-faced channels. Therefore, it is important that a call center has enough agents to offer high level customer satisfaction. However, managing too many agents would increase the operational costs of a call center by increasing labor costs. Therefore, predicting and calculating the appropriate size of human resources of a call center is one of the most critical success factors of call center management. For this reason, most call centers are currently establishing a department of WFM(Work Force Management) to estimate the appropriate number of agents and to direct much effort to predict the volume of inbound calls. In real world applications, inbound call prediction is usually performed based on the intuition and experience of a domain expert. In other words, a domain expert usually predicts the volume of calls by calculating the average call of some periods and adjusting the average according tohis/her subjective estimation. However, this kind of approach has radical limitations in that the result of prediction might be strongly affected by the expert's personal experience and competence. It is often the case that a domain expert may predict inbound calls quite differently from anotherif the two experts have mutually different opinions on selecting influential variables and priorities among the variables. Moreover, it is almost impossible to logically clarify the process of expert's subjective prediction. Currently, to overcome the limitations of subjective call prediction, most call centers are adopting a WFMS(Workforce Management System) package in which expert's best practices are systemized. With WFMS, a user can predict the volume of calls by calculating the average call of each day of the week, excluding some eventful days. However, WFMS costs too much capital during the early stage of system establishment. Moreover, it is hard to reflect new information ontothe system when some factors affecting the amount of calls have been changed. In this paper, we attempt to devise a new model for predicting inbound calls that is not only based on theoretical background but also easily applicable to real world applications. Our model was mainly developed by the interactive decision tree technique, one of the most popular techniques in data mining. Therefore, we expect that our model can predict inbound calls automatically based on historical data, and it can utilize expert's domain knowledge during the process of tree construction. To analyze the accuracy of our model, we performed intensive experiments on a real case of one of the largest car insurance companies in Korea. In the case study, the prediction accuracy of the devised two models and traditional WFMS are analyzed with respect to the various error rates allowable. The experiments reveal that our data mining-based two models outperform WFMS in terms of predicting the amount of accident calls and fault calls in most experimental situations examined.

The Development of Education Model for CA-RP(Cognitive Apprenticeship-Based Research Paper) to Improve the Research Capabilities for Majors Students of Radiological Technology (방사선 전공학생의 연구역량 증진을 위한 인지적 도제기반 논문작성 교육 모형 개발)

  • Park, Hoon-Hee;Chung, Hyun-Suk;Lee, Yun-Hee;Kim, Hyun-Soo;Kang, Byung-Sam;Son, Jin-Hyun;Min, Jung-Hwan;Lyu, Kwang-Yeul
    • Journal of radiological science and technology
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    • v.36 no.2
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    • pp.99-110
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    • 2013
  • In the medical field, the necessity of education growth for the professional Radiation Technologists has been emphasized to become experts on radiation and the radiation field is important of the society. Also, in hospitals and companies, important on thesis is getting higher in order to active and cope with rapidly changing internal and external environment and a more in-depth expert training, the necessity of new teaching and learning model that can cope with changes in a more proactive has become. Thesis writing classes brought limits to the in-depth learning as to start a semester and rely on only specific programs besides, inevitable on passive participation. In addition, it does not have a variety opportunity to present, an actual opportunity that can be written and discussed does not provide much caused by instructor-led classes. As well as, it has had a direct impact on the quality of the thesis, furthermore, having the opportunity to participate in various conferences showed the limitations. In order to solve these problems, in this study, writing thesis has organized training operations as a consistent gradual deepening of learning, at the same time, the operational idea was proposed based on the connectivity integrated operating and effective training program & instructional tool for improving the ability to perform the written actual thesis. The development of teaching and learning model consisted of 4 system modeling, scaffolding, articulation, exploration. Depending on the nature of the course, consisting team following the personal interest and the topic allow for connection subject, based on this, promote research capacity through a step-by-step evaluation and feedback and, fundamentally strengthen problem-solving skills through the journal studies, help not only solving the real-time problem by taking wiki-space but also efficient use of time, increase the quality of the thesis by activating cooperation through mentoring, as a result, it was to promote a positive partnership with the academic. Support system in three stages planning subject, progress & writing, writing thesis & presentation and based on cognitive apprenticeship. The ongoing Coaching and Reflection of professor and expert was applied in order to maintain these activities smoothly. The results of this study will introduce actively, voluntarily and substantially join to learners, by doing so, culture the enhancement of creativity, originality and the ability to co-work and by enhance the expertise of based-knowledge, it is considered to be help to improve the comprehensive ability.

Standards of Due Diligence and Separation of Responsibilities in the Division of Labor in Medicine (분업적 의료행위에 있어서 주의의무위반 판단기준과 그 제한규칙들)

  • Choi, Hojin
    • The Korean Society of Law and Medicine
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.41-72
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    • 2018
  • In the division of labor (or teamwork) in medicine, the responsibility of medical and nursing staff should be separated or distributed to justify negligent criminal offenses. The present work refers to the standards by which the due diligence and responsibility of the individual persons are to be determined and delimited. In this context, it has been proven that objective theory as a measure of due diligence is appropriate. From a moral point of view, when assessing due diligence, it makes sense to impose greater individual or higher performance demands on the perpetrator, but law and order require that due diligence should result from socially relevant human behavior. To give objective measure of negligence and to provide the highest level of personal responsibility, so that man can not be burdened too much responsibility and it is accordingly with an equality theorem. Afterwards some points are presented, which should be considered in a concrete fact in the determination of the medical negligence. Medical action has specific characteristics such as professionalism, discretionary and exclusive, unbalance of information. These characteristics distinguish medical actions from general negligence. The general level of knowledge, the urgency, working condition and working environment of the medical facility, duration of the professional practice, assessment of the medical activity are crucial in this context. As a standard of delineation of due diligence, I have used the permitted risk and the principle of trust. In the horizontal division of labor, the principle of trust applies. The principle of trust applies in principle in cases of division of labor interaction, when doctors in the same hospital exercise their own specific occupational field or everyone works in another hospital. However, this is not true for every case. In the vertical division of labor, the principle of trust does not apply and the senior physician can not trust the assistant doctors. In this case, the principle of trust is converted into a duty of supervision for assistant doctors by the senior physician. This supervision requirement could be used as a random check.

Chronic pain control in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (만성통증 환자의 통증 조절)

  • Eun, Young
    • Journal of muscle and joint health
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    • v.2 no.1
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    • pp.17-40
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    • 1995
  • Rheumatoid arthritis is the one of the chronic diseases, one of its major symptoms is a chronic pain. Despite developing medical treatment and surgical techniques, it is suggested that to control the pain is the goal of the treatment. But pain is an inner experience and even those closest to the patient cannot truly observe its progress or share in its suffering. The National Academy of Sciences Institute of Medicine's report on Pain and Disability concluded that there is no objective measure of pain-(exactly) no pain thermometer-nor can there ever be one, because the experience of pain is inseparable from personal perception and social influence such as culture. To explore chronic pain experience is to understand the process and property of the patient's perception of pain through the response to pain, the coping with pain, and the adaptation to pain. Therefore a qualitative study was conducted in order to gain an understanding of pain experience of patients with RA in korea. I used naturalistic inquiry as a research methodology, which had 5 axioms, the first is that realities are multiple, constructed, and holistic, the second is that knower and known are interactive, inseparable, the third is only time and context bound working hypotheses(idiographic statements) are possible, the forth is all entities are in a state of mutual simultaneous shaping, so that it is impossible to distinguish causes from effects and the last is that inquiry is value-bound. Purposive sampling was conducted as a sampling. 20 subjects who experienced pain over 10 years, lived in middle-sized city and big city in Korea, and 17 women and 3 men. The subject's age was from 32 to 62 (average 48.8), all were married, living with their spouse and children, except two-one divorced and the other widow before they became ill. I collected data using In depth structured interview. I had interviews two or three times with each subject, and the interviews were conducted at each subject's home. Each interview lasted about two hours an average. A recording was taken with the consent of the subject. I used inductive data analysis-such as unitizing and categorizing. unitizing is a process of coding, whereby raw data are systematically transformed and aggregated into units. Categorizing is a process wherby previously unitized data are organized into categories that provide descriptive or inferential information about the context or setting from which the units were derived. This process is used constant comparative method. The pain controlling process is composed of behavior of pain control. The behaviors of pain control are rearranging of ADL, hiddening role conflict, balancing treatment, and changing social relation. Rearranging of ADL includes diet management, sleep management, and the adjustment of daily life activities. The subjects try to rearrange their daily activities by modified style of motions, rearranging time span & range of activities, using auxillary facilities, and getting help in order to keep on the pace of daily life. Hiddening role conflict means to reduce conflicts between sick role and their role as a family member. In this process, the subjects use two modes, one is to control the pain complaints, and the other is to internalize the value which is to stay home is good for caring her children and being a good mother. To control pain complaints is done by 'enduring', 'understanding' the other family members, or making them undersood in order to reduce pain. Balancing treatment is composed of two aspects. One is to keep the pain within the endurable level, the other is to keep in touch with medical personnel in order to get the information of treatment and emotional support. Changing social relation is made by information seeking and sharing, formation of mutual support relation, and finally simplification of social relationships. The subjects simplify their social relationships by refraining from relations with someone who makes them physically and psychologically strained. In particular the subjects are apt to avoid contact with in-laws, and the change of relation to in-laws results in lessening the family boundary. In the course of this process, they confront the crisis of family confict result in family dissolution. This crisis is related to the threat of self-existence. Findings from this study contribute to understanding the chronic pain experience. To advance this study, we should compare this result with other cases in different cultural contexts. I think to interpret these results, korean cultural background should be considered. Especially the different family concept, more broader family members and kinship network, and the traditional medical knowledge influences patients' behavior.

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Toesikje Garden and Landscape Culture in the Middle Goryeo Dynasty as Viewed through 'Dongkukesangkukjip' ('동국이상국집(東國李相國集)'을 통해 본 고려중기 퇴식재(退食齋) 원유와 조경문화)

  • Shin, Sang-Sup;Rho, Jae-Hyun
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Traditional Landscape Architecture
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.57-66
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    • 2010
  • In reviewing 'Dongkukesangkukjip(東國李相國集)' a selection of prose and poetry describing Toesikje, the house of Kee Heung-soo, a military official in the middle Goryeo Dynasty, the outcome of the study intended to infer garden scenery and landscape culture managed and possessed by high society at that time is outlined as follows. First, Kee Heung-soo, the owner of the house and Lee Kyu-bo, the author of Toesikje Palryeng(退食齋八詠) are thought to be those who first designated the 8 scenic points and recreated the concept of public enjoyment of into the concept of personal enjoyment in Korea. Second, the spatial configuration of the Toesikje garden is presumed to be in the Gee-Seung-Jeon-Gyul(introduction-development-turn-conclusion) style in which a fairyland is built to enjoy a free and peaceful life, while anticipating coming days and pursuing creation-prosperity-transcendence-return. Third, the viewpoint structure of the scenery Wongyeong(Toesikje), Donggyeong(Youngcheondong), Cheonggyeong(Cheokseojung), Myunggyeong(Dokrakwon), Jingyeong(Yeonmukdang), Sigyeong(Yeoneuiji), Yunggyeong(Nokgunheon), and Hyungyeong(Daehoseok) contains a symbolic universal vision of Palchejigyeongsek(the 8 scenic points) which incorporates Samwon(heaven, earth and water) and Obangwi(orientations), and the harmonization principle of the scenic points where the building and garden are harmonized. Fourth, Je, Dang, and Heon, Jeong(齋, 堂, 軒, 亭) are introduced to the garden, and Geehwayeecho, Jingeumgeesoo, Gasan and Goeseok(stone) were used in a variety of ways. Fifth, it was found that the management of Shinseongyeong and enjoyment of Yoosanggoksu events, with the study and seeking of perfect knowledge and discipline, wandering and rest led to a sublime appreciation of aesthetic beauty and divine glory. Sixth, a miniature garden was built to enjoy the view from above, together with the view in the distance, and a culture of secluded living, along with scenery expressing the heart's desire for Utopia was induced.

Educational Reforms under the Bologna Process in Former Socialist Countries: An analysis of educational policy transfer (체제 변환기 러시아 및 동구권 국가들의 교육 개혁이 정책 전이 논쟁에 주는 시사점: 볼로냐 프로세스를 중심으로)

  • Kim, Sun
    • Korean Journal of Comparative Education
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.145-169
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    • 2017
  • The purpose of this study is to investigate the influences of educational policy transfer on transitional countries by analyzing the impacts of the Bologna Process on the educational systems of former socialist countries in Europe including Russia, Ukraine, and Hungary. For this purpose, documents published by European Union and its associated educational institutions, as well as academic institutions and scholars were analyzed to evaluate the changes made not only in the systemic level but also institutional and personal levels. The Bologna Process, instigated by the rise of knowledge economy and globalization, is purported to be the most influential educational reform conducted by the member countries since the formation of EU. However, unlike its original intentions to promote the voluntary participation of universities and students, the Bologna Process strengthened the structure of centralized bureaucracy in the educational systems, and restricted the freedom of professors, since most of the universities in these countries relied on governments for their funding. This indicates that in analyzing the influences of educational policy transfer in transitional countries, it is important to analyze the roles and motivations of actors participating in the decision-making processes. Moreover, Bologna Process reforms, made under the direction and control of government, were often turned into cases in which administrators hurriedly implement new policies against the will of faculty members and students, thus impeding the efficient localization of the reforms. This case, thus, implies that while educational reforms driven by policy transfer can change external systems and policies of universities, the fundamental reforms in the minds of faculty and inner workings of organization can only come about after a careful consideration of the societal and cultural values embedded within society.