• Ecology and Resilient Infrastructure
• /
• 제9권3호
• /
• pp.163-173
• /
• 2022

기후변화는 종의 생물계절 및 지리적 분포 변화에 많은 영향을 미치는 핵심 요인으로 생태 분야에서는 취약성 평가를 위해 생물의 생리적 특성과 가장 관련이 높은 생태기후지수 (BioClimatic predictor, 이하 BioClim)를 사용하고 있다. 그러나, Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) 시나리오에 대한 GCM별 미래 기간 기후평균값 이외에 BioClim 값들은 제공되지 않고 있다. 본 연구는 농촌진흥청에서 생산한 1 km 해상도의 SSPs 시나리오 상세화 자료를 이용하여 국내 여건에 적합한 BioClim 자료를 생산하고, 해당 자료를 기반으로 종 분포모형을 적용하여 주로 남부 및 경상북도, 강원도 및 습한 지역에서 생육 환경이 적합한 고로쇠나무의 기준년대 (1981 - 2010년) 및 미래년도 (2011 - 2100년)에 대해 30년 단위로 적합 서식지 분포를 예측했다. 전국자연환경조사자료를 통해 총 819개 지점에서 고로쇠나무 출현 자료를 수집했다. MaxEnt 모형의 성능을 높이기 위해 모형의 매개 변수 (LQH-1.5)를 최적화하고 상세화된 Biolicm 7개 지수와 지형지수 5개를 MaxEnt 모델에 적용했다. 국내 고로쇠나무 분포는 배수, 연 강수량 (Bio12), 경사가 크게 기여하는 것으로 나타났다. 적습하고 비옥한 토양을 선호하는 생육 특성이 반영된 결과로 기후 요인의 영향은 크지 않았다. 이에 따라 기준년도에 고로쇠나무의 높은 수준 적합 서식지는 우리나라 면적의 3.41%, 근미래 (2011 - 2040년) 및 먼미래 (2071 - 2100년)에서 SSP1-2.6은 0.01%, 0.02%를 차지하여 점차 감소하였으나, SSP5-8.5에서는 각각 0.01%, 0.72%로 오히려 기준년도 대비 근미래에는 감소되다가 먼미래로 갈수록 점차 증가하는 경향을 보였다. 본 연구는 기후변화에 보다 적응이 수월한 식생의 미래 분포 양상을 확인한 연구로 기후변화 적응 종이 미래 산림 복원 등에 활용 가능한 기초 연구로 의의가 있다.

• 한국환경과학회지
• /
• 제5권3호
• /
• pp.253-263
• /
• 1996

This study is an attempt to classify climatic regions of Korea based on the data of sunshine duration and to clarify the characteristics of sunshine for each divided regions. The data used in this study are the mean values of monthly and ten-daily sunshine duration, sunshine percentage, solar radiation and proud amount obtained from 63 weather stations of the Korea Meteorological Administration during the period of 1974~ 1993. The characteristics of annual change of sunshine percentage, annual duration of sunshine, percentage of sunshine, annual radiation, amount of cloud, days of sunshine percentage above 80% and-days of sunless are investigated by the mean values of -the stations belong to divided regions. The ward method of hierarchical cluster analysis is adopted to the analysis of data for the regional division. The results obtained in this study are summarized as follows. (1) The sunshine regions of Korea can be divided into six regions of the central west, central east, south west, souls east, Ullung-do and Cheju-do. These are strongly affected by the dirtribution of inclined slopes taking account of the topographic characteristics of Korea. (2) Annual distribution shows the sunshine duration of 1777~ 2287 hours, sunshine percentage of 40~53%, solar radiation of 3469~4637 MJ/$m^2$, cloud amount of 5.0~6.1, days of sunshine perrentage above 80% of 53~116days and sunless days of 46~71days. (3) The types of annual change of sunshine percentages is classified with four types of minimum in July and maximum in October, minimum in July and maximum in December, high in May and October and low in July and January, high in May and November and low in June and January. (4) The long-term trend of sunshine duration decrease in peninsula area but increase in island area and the Tong-term inclination of cloud amount is almost zero. The author believe this tendency is related to a pollutional turbidity than a cloud amount in inland area.

• 한국기후변화학회지
• /
• 제8권3호
• /
• pp.221-230
• /
• 2017

There are two main policies to meet the national goal of reducing Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) emissions in Korea towards Paris Agreement. From 2012 to 2014, Target Management System (TMS) was operated and the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) has been established since 2015. To compare the impact of TMS and ETS on reducing GHGs, we collected annual GHGs emission reports submitted by individual business entities, and normalized them using a z-variant normalized function. In order to evaluate the impact of those policies, we calculated the amount of GHGs emissions of 73 business entities from 15 business sectors. Those entities emitted $508million\;CO_2eq$, which is 74% of total national GHGs emissions in 2014. The main results of analysis indicate that accumulated GHGs emissions during the period 2012 to 2014 affected by TMS was higher than the national goal of GHGs emission reduction, and only the GHGs emissions in 2014 were in the range of allowed GHGs emissions, set by the Government. In 2015, when ETS initiated, total GHGs emission trading was $4.84million\;tCO_2eq$, which is only 0.9% of total allowance in 2015. However, more than 50% of business entities, who got the allowance of GHGs emission given by the Government, met the goal of GHGs emissions. Particularly, 27 of 73 business entities reduced GHGs more under the ETS rather than the TMS. Even though we analyzed only 4 years' data to demonstrate the impact of TMS and ETS, it is expected to commit the national goal of GHGs reduction target by TMS and ETS.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 한국수자원학회 2017년도 학술발표회
• /
• pp.199-199
• /
• 2017

Sustainable wheat production is of paramount importance for attaining/maintaining the food self-sufficiency status of the rapidly growing nation of Pakistan. However, the average wheat yield per unit area has been dwindling in recent years and the climate-induced variations in rainfall patterns and temperature regimes, during the wheat growth period, are believed to be the reason behind this decline. Crop growth simulation models are powerful tools capable of playing pivotal role in evaluating the climate change impacts on crop yield or productivity. This study was aimed to predict the plausible variations in the wheat yield for future climatic trends so that possible mitigation strategies could be explored. For this purpose, Aquacrop model v. 4.0 was employed to simulate the wheat yield under present and future climatology of the largest agricultural province of Punjab in Pakistan. The data related to crop phenology, management and yield were collected from the experimental plots to calibrate and validate the model. The future climate projections were statistically downscaled from five general circulation models (GCMs) and compared with the base line climate from 1980 to 2010. The model was fed with the projected climate to simulate the wheat yield based on the RCP (representative concentration pathways) 4.5 and 8.5. Under the worst, most likely future scenario of temperature rise and rainfall reduction, the crop yield decreased and water footprint, especially blue, increased, owing to the elevated irrigation demands due to accelerated evapotranspiration rates. The modeling results provided in this study are expected to provide a basic framework for devising policy responses to minimize the climate change impacts on wheat production in the area.

• 한국수자원학회논문집
• /
• 제41권4호
• /
• pp.379-394
• /
• 2008

최근 수공시설물의 설계규모를 넘어서는 극한 강우사상이 발생하여 홍수방어를 위하여 구축된 수리구조물이 파괴 되는 등 많은 홍수피해가 발생하고 있다. 따라서 극한 강우사상의 시공간적 발생 특성을 파악하고 미래의 기후변화하에서 극한강우사상이 어떻게 변화하고 설계수명기간(Design period)동안 분포 특성이 어떻게 변화할지를 이해하는 것은 매우 중요하다. 이에 본 논문에서는 미래의 기후변화가 극한 강우에 어떠한 영향을 미치는지를 평가하기 위해 기후변화 시나리오를 이용하여 미래의 극한강우의 특성 분석과 I-D-F 분석을 실시하였다. 본 연구에서는 SRES B2 온난화가스 시나리오와 YONU CGCM 를 이용하여 2030s(2031-2050)를 모의하였으며 통계학적 축소기법을 적용하여 우리나라에 위치한 기상청 산하 관측소별로 일 기상자료를 구축하였다. 또한, 이를 과거 관측 자료와 비교하여 Quantile Mapping 방법으로 편이보정을 실시하였고, 구형펄스(Modified Bartlett Lewis Rectangular Pulse, MBLRP) 모형(Onof과 Wheater, 1993; Onof 2000)과 분해기법(adjust method)을 적용하여 일 강우 시계열자료를 시 강우 시계열 자료로 변환하였으며 지속기간별 빈도별 강우량을 산정하여 I-D-F 곡선을 작성하였다. 본 논문에서는 66개 관측소 중에서 서울, 대구, 전주, 광주 지점의 결과만을 수록하였으며 그 결과 거의 모든 지점에서 현재와 비교하였을 때 지속기간이 길어질수록 강우강도가 증가함을 확인할 수 있었다.

• 한국수자원학회논문집
• /
• 제39권11호
• /
• pp.923-934
• /
• 2006

본 연구는 SWAT모형을 이용하여 기상, 지하수 취수량, 토지이용 변화에 대한 건기 총유출량의 민감도를 제시하였으며 더 나아가 건기의 총 유출량을 추정하기 위해 건기 총강우량, 전 우기 총강우량, 평균 일 최대온도, 일평균 태양복사량과 같은 기상 변수들과 지하수 취수량 및 도시면적 비율을 이용하여 회귀식을 도출하였다. 도출된 식을 이용하여 기후변화에 대한 건기 총유출량 변화를 살펴보기 위하여 온도와 강우량의 변화에 대한 건기 총유출량의 변화율을 제시하였는데 기후변화로 인해 온도가 상승할 경우 건기의 총 유출량은 감소하는 것으로 나타났다. 지하수 취수량은 총 유출량과 관계가 높은데 반해 토지이용 변화는 산간유역인 대상유역의 경우 크게 영향을 미치지 않음을 알 수 있었다. 본 연구에서 제안된 식은 기저유출에 영향을 크게 미치는 강우와 기온 및 태양복사량을 포함하는 기상상태, 지하수 취수량, 도시면적 비율을 변수로 갖는 식이므로 기후변화를 비롯한 유역의 다양한 수문학적 변화에 대해 대상유역의 미래 건기의 수자원 확보량을 예측하는데 유용하게 사용될 수 있다.

• 보존과학연구
• /
• 통권16호
• /
• pp.59-111
• /
• 1995

Chemical composion and crystal form of Corrosion products found on archaeological iron objects were analyzed using X-ray fluorescence analysis, micro-X-ray powder diffraction analysis and ion chromatographic technique. The nature and behavior of the corrosion products were studied in order to aid in the conservation and restoration of burial iron objects. Twenty-two samples analyzed in this study were collected from iron object found in Korea and Japan. The corrosion products of iron objects from burial mounds contain $\alpha$-FeOOH, $\beta$-FeOOH, $\gamma$-FeOOH, $Fe_3O_4$and amorphous iron hydroxides. The content of $\alpha$-HeOOH is the greatest. Because, Ageing for long period should change the amorphous iron hydroxides is considerably less than that in usual atmospheric corrosion products. The concentration of chlorine and sulfine is remarkably variable ($Cl^-$ : 100- 30,000ppm, $SO_4^-2$ : 20-10,000ppm),but the reasons are unclear. The presence of generally high concentrations of chlorine and sulfine the corrosion products of iron objects seem to be influenced by the marine climatic condition. The presence of high chlorine and sulfine concentrations in the corrosion products of iron objects seem to be influenced by the marine burial environments.

• 환경영향평가
• /
• 제19권2호
• /
• pp.169-177
• /
• 2010

One of the most obvious climatic manifestations of urbanization in Korea is a trend towards higher air temperature. The trends of long-term annual temperature generally well describe the warming of urban areas. The increase of air temperature in urban area has been observed to the present since the meteorological observations in Korea began. The objective of this study is to explore the actual increase and the regional long-term trends of air temperature attributed to urbanization in the Korean Peninsula. Therefore, temperatures of the selected urban areas were compared with that of the surrounding rural areas, with the results varying by the application of the estimates of each region. The second objective is to separate the long-term trend of surface air temperature of global warming from urbanization and to find the actual temperature increase from urbanization in Korean peninsula. For the data analysis, daily air temperatures observed by the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) during between from 1961 and 2005 were used at five rural sites and cities. The re-analyzed surface air temperatures by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) was also carried out to compare the result from the observed air temperature in the Korean climate domain. In this study, the urban areas in Korea showed high increase rate of air temperature with $0.4^{\circ}C$ per decade during past 50 year period, while rural sites as Chupungryung with the $0.2^{\circ}C$ decadal increase rate. The analyses reflect that the urban area shows the high rate of temperature increase with $1.39^{\circ}C$ of regression value at the urban area, Seoul, and $0.43^{\circ}C$ at the rural site, Chupungnyeong during the period of 30 years. The temperature increas due to the urbanization only showed the increase range between $0.44^{\circ}C$ and $0.86^{\circ}C$, and the observed decrease in diurnal temperature range at five urban areas during the 30 years period.

• 한국환경농학회지
• /
• 제31권2호
• /
• pp.129-136
• /
• 2012

BACKGROUND: The changes in the climatic conditions have brought potentially significant new challenges, most critical are likely to be its impact on local livelihoods, agriculture, biodiversity and environments. Water induced disasters such as landslides, floods, erratic rain etc., are very common in developing countries which lead to changes in biological, geophysical and socioeconomic elements. The extent of damages caused by natural disasters is more sever in least developing countries. However, disasters affect women and men differently. In most of the cases women have to carry more burden as compared to their male counterpart during the period of disasters. METHODS AND RESULTS: This study examines the impact of disasters on the local livelihood especially agriculture and income generating activities of women in three districts of Nepal. The study uses the primary data collected following an exploratory approach, based on an intensive field study. The general findings of the study revealed that women had to experience hard time as compared to their male counterpart both during and after the disaster happen. Women are responsible for caring their children, collecting firewood, fetching water, collecting grass for livestock and performing household chores. Whereas, men are mainly involved in out-migration and remained out-side home most of the time. After the disaster occurred, most of the women had to struggle to support their lives as well as had to work longer hours than men during reconstruction period. Nepal follows patriarchal system and men can afford more leisure time as compared to women. During the disaster period, some of the households lost their agricultural lands, livestock and other properties. These losses created some additional workload to women respondent, however at the same time; they learn to build confidence, self-respect, self-esteem, and self-dependency.Although Nepal is predominantly agriculture, majority of the farmers are at subsistence level. In addition, men and women have different roles which differ with the variation in agro-production systems. Moreover women are extensively involved in agricultural activities though their importances were not recognized. Denial of land ownership and denial of access to resources as well as migration of male counterparts are some of the major reasons for affecting the agricultural environments for women in Nepal. CONCLUSION: The shelter reconstruction program has definitely brought positive change in women's access to decision making. The gradual increase in number of women respondent in access to decision making in different areas is a positive change and this has also provided them with a unique opportunity to change their gendered status in society.Furthermore, the exodus out-flow of male counterparts accelerated the additional burden and workload on women.

• 한국지구과학회지
• /
• 제31권4호
• /
• pp.313-321
• /
• 2010

연구지역의 지형은 해안과 인접한 소규모의 곡저평야에 속한다. 이 곡저평야는 낮은 구릉지 사이 개석된 곳에 충적물이 매적되어 형성되었다. 본 연구에서는 탄소안정동위원소비 분석과 토양유기탄소 분석을 이용하여 과거의 기후환경 복원을 시도하였다. I 시기(약 $6,600{\pm}60\;yr$ B.P.$-5,350{\pm}60\;yr$ B.P.)는 전반적으로 온난하고 습윤한 기후환경이었으나, 건습변화에 있어서는 약건조(또는 약습윤)${\rightarrow}$습윤의 미변화가 감지된다. II 시기(약 $5,350{\pm}60\;yr$ B.P.-2,200 yr B.P.)는 현재와 비슷한 온난습윤한 기후환경을 나타낸다. $4,720{\pm}60\;yr$ B.P.와 $4,210{\pm}50\;yr$ B.P. 사이는 전체 퇴적층 중 가장 습윤했던 것으로 파악된다. $4,210{\pm}50\;yr$ B.P. 이후에는 점차 습윤에서 약습윤(또는 약건조)환경으로 이행하는 과정이 나타난다. III 시기(약 2,200 yr B.P.$-210{\pm}60\;yr$ B.P.)는 앞선 두 시기와 확연히 구분되며, 약습윤(또는 약건조)의 기후환경을 나타낸다.