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Analysis of promising countries for export using parametric and non-parametric methods based on ERGM: Focusing on the case of information communication and home appliance industries (ERGM 기반의 모수적 및 비모수적 방법을 활용한 수출 유망국가 분석: 정보통신 및 가전 산업 사례를 중심으로)

  • Jun, Seung-pyo;Seo, Jinny;Yoo, Jae-Young
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.28 no.1
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    • pp.175-196
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    • 2022
  • Information and communication and home appliance industries, which were one of South Korea's main industries, are gradually losing their export share as their export competitiveness is weakening. This study objectively analyzed export competitiveness and suggested export-promising countries in order to help South Korea's information communication and home appliance industries improve exports. In this study, network properties, centrality, and structural hole analysis were performed during network analysis to evaluate export competitiveness. In order to select promising export countries, we proposed a new variable that can take into account the characteristics of an already established International Trade Network (ITN), that is, the Global Value Chain (GVC), in addition to the existing economic factors. The conditional log-odds for individual links derived from the Exponential Random Graph Model (ERGM) in the analysis of the cross-border trade network were assumed as a proxy variable that can indicate the export potential. In consideration of the possibility of ERGM linkage, a parametric approach and a non-parametric approach were used to recommend export-promising countries, respectively. In the parametric method, a regression analysis model was developed to predict the export value of the information and communication and home appliance industries in South Korea by additionally considering the link-specific characteristics of the network derived from the ERGM to the existing economic factors. Also, in the non-parametric approach, an abnormality detection algorithm based on the clustering method was used, and a promising export country was proposed as a method of finding outliers that deviate from two peers. According to the research results, the structural characteristic of the export network of the industry was a network with high transferability. Also, according to the centrality analysis result, South Korea's influence on exports was weak compared to its size, and the structural hole analysis result showed that export efficiency was weak. According to the model for recommending promising exporting countries proposed by this study, in parametric analysis, Iran, Ireland, North Macedonia, Angola, and Pakistan were promising exporting countries, and in nonparametric analysis, Qatar, Luxembourg, Ireland, North Macedonia and Pakistan were analyzed as promising exporting countries. There were differences in some countries in the two models. The results of this study revealed that the export competitiveness of South Korea's information and communication and home appliance industries in GVC was not high compared to the size of exports, and thus showed that exports could be further reduced. In addition, this study is meaningful in that it proposed a method to find promising export countries by considering GVC networks with other countries as a way to increase export competitiveness. This study showed that, from a policy point of view, the international trade network of the information communication and home appliance industries has an important mutual relationship, and although transferability is high, it may not be easily expanded to a three-party relationship. In addition, it was confirmed that South Korea's export competitiveness or status was lower than the export size ranking. This paper suggested that in order to improve the low out-degree centrality, it is necessary to increase exports to Italy or Poland, which had significantly higher in-degrees. In addition, we argued that in order to improve the centrality of out-closeness, it is necessary to increase exports to countries with particularly high in-closeness. In particular, it was analyzed that Morocco, UAE, Argentina, Russia, and Canada should pay attention as export countries. This study also provided practical implications for companies expecting to expand exports. The results of this study argue that companies expecting export expansion need to pay attention to countries with a relatively high potential for export expansion compared to the existing export volume by country. In particular, for companies that export daily necessities, countries that should pay attention to the population are presented, and for companies that export high-end or durable products, countries with high GDP, or purchasing power, relatively low exports are presented. Since the process and results of this study can be easily extended and applied to other industries, it is also expected to develop services that utilize the results of this study in the public sector.

Analysis of the Critical Thinking Level of Activity Tasks in Home Economics Textbooks for $7^{th}$ Graders (중학교 1학년 가정교과서 활동과제의 비판적 사고 수준 분석)

  • Lee, Mee-Young;Park, Mi-Jeong;Chae, Jung-Hyun
    • Journal of Korean Home Economics Education Association
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.19-36
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    • 2010
  • The objective of this study was to measure the critical thinking level of activity tasks included in home economics textbooks published under the 2007 Revised National Curriculum. For this purpose, we sampled 3 kinds of Technology-Home Economics textbooks for 7th graders, selected activity tasks contained in the textbooks, and classified them by type. A total of 93 activity tasks were extracted, and they were analyzed using 9 questions on critical thinking prepared based on Kim Young-jung's '9 Elements and 9 Standards of Critical Thinking.' The results of this study were as follows. First, the total score of the critical thinking level of activity tasks in the home economics textbooks was 66.8, which was not high enough to induce learners' critical thinking. Among the sub-categories of critical thinking, the score was high in order of argumentative thinking(83.9), analytical thinking(78.1), and dialectic thinking(38.3). As in the results, the activity tasks were particularly inadequate for inducing dialectic thinking. Second. in the results of analyzing difference in the critical thinking level according to unit, significant difference was observed among the units. Activity tasks in Units 'Adolescents' Self-management'(77.8), 'Adolescents' Consumption life'(75.2), and 'Adolescents' Sex and Peer Relationship'(71.1) induced critical thinking more effectively than those in other units, but activity tasks in Units 'Clothing and Self-expression' (61. 4), 'Adolescents' Development'(60.0), and 'Adolescents' Nutrition and Meals'(59.6) were inadequate for inducing critical thinking. Third, in the results of analyzing difference in the critical thinking level according to activity task type, the level was high in order of 'Inquiry Activities' (75.7), 'Discussions' (74.6), 'Practical Activities'(65.4), and 'Trials' (50.7), and the differences were significant. That is, among activity task types, 'Inquiry Activities' were most effective in inducing learners' critical thinking and 'Trials' were least effective.

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An Analysis of Work Stress of Physical Therapist and Reaction (물리치료사의 업무 스트레스 현황과 대응수준 -부산지역을 중심으로-)

  • Dong, Jong Ick;Ryu, Hwang Gun;Bae, Sung-Kwon
    • The Korean Journal of Health Service Management
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    • v.2 no.1
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    • pp.37-55
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    • 2008
  • This study aims to enhance work efficiency and satisfaction by offering data that make a physical therapist cope with stress coming from the job efficiently by identifying and analyzing the job satisfaction and work stress perceived by a physical therapist, and the level of reaction of a physical therapist. The study distributed survey questionnaires to 300 physical therapists working in medical institutions in Busan via mail and by visit from March 3, 2007 by selecting them simply and randomly from the physical therapist list, and collected the questionnaires by March 20, 2007, 103 respondents were working at 17 general hospitals including a university hospital, 65 respondents at 12 medical centers, and 79 respondents at 39 doctor's offices. The study collected 251 copies, which showed the collection rate of 83.7%, and analyzed 247 copies (82.3%) excluding 4 copies of insincere answers. As a research tool for measuring job satisfaction the study used a tool employed for research into the job satisfaction of physical therapists who work at medical institutions in Gwangju, Jeonnam, and Jeonbuk by Kim Hee-Gwon(1992) and research regarding job satisfaction by Jeong Jeong-Hee(2004) as well as research regarding the factors of job satisfaction by Flippo(1980) & Seberhagen(1970) after adjusting the research tools to the purpose of the study. Also for questions about work stress, the study employed nurses' job stress measurement tool developed by Kim Mae-Ja and em Mi-Ok(1984) by modifying the tool to the purpose of the study, and for a measurement tool for reaction to stress, the study used a tool employed for research into reaction to stress of nurses at general hospitals by Choi Eun-Deok(2005) without modification. For data analysis, the study used the SPSS12.0 as a statistical method, and then used t-test or ANOVA for verifying actual numbers, percentile, average :score, standard deviation, rank, and difference. Also, the study conducted which is a post-test method for variables that show a significant difference at the level of p<.05 level after the analysis. The findings include the following. 1) The respondents' job satisfaction score was 3.21 points on the average (out of 5 full points). The peer relationship ranked the highest, posting 4.02 points on the average, and the job satisfaction with rewards was proven the lowest, posting 2.51 points. For the job satisfaction level by characteristics, there were significant differences (p<.05) in gender, hospital type, weekly working hours, monthly working days, number of patients per day, department in charge of therapy, and number of peers, and there was no significant difference in characteristics other than that. 2) The respondents' work stress score was 2.72 points (out of 5 full points) on the average. The respondents were shown to be under the highest stress when they suffered from excessive workload, posting 3.49 points on the average, and they were shown to be under the least stress when they had a conflict with peers at another department, recording 1.90 points on the average. for the job stress level by the characteristics of job, there was a significant difference in the reflection of job assessment(p<.05). 3) 1n respondents' reaction to stress, most of them were shown to make efforts in coping with stress, posting 2.80 points (out of 5 full points). For their experience of being wider stress, they answered that 'they felt depressed (2.85 points)" for their experience of coping with stress, they answered that 'they were indifferent to it or thought about something else' (2.62 points). Also, for their efforts in coping with stress, they answered that 'they were motivated to remove their strain by taking leave, playing, or using their preferences' (3.52 points), which ranked higher. For the level of reaction to stress by characteristics, there were significant differences by age, gender, marital status, total service years as a physical therapist, monthly working days, and department in charge of therapy(p<.05). It is necessary to offer correct information by conducting an in-depth analysis of the stressful situations of physical therapists who exert efforts in rehabilitating patients at hospitals by factor, and seeking management plans based on the research results. Also, it is necessary to develop a program for coping with stress efficiently for removing stress and to conduct research into the understanding and cooperation of administrators and persons in charge of physical therapists for reducing physical therapists' stress at hospitals.

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A RESEARCH ON RISK FACTORS OF ADOLESCENT SEXUAL BEHAVIORS (청소년의 성행동 위험요인에 관한 연구)

  • Park, In-Seon;Baek, Yeon-Ok;Han, In-Young
    • Journal of the Korean Academy of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.138-148
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    • 2001
  • The focus of the research was on identifying the risk factors that may result in unprepared intercourse among the adolescent from an ecological systems prospective. A survey questionnaire was conducted from September through December 1999 to 2326 youths, ages from 13-18 years old. After eliminating thirty respondents from Unwed Mother's Home we found that 8.8% of the remaining respondents had experienced sexual intercourse. Of those, 5% of the female and 13.4% of male adolescents has had sexual intercourse, showing 2.7 times more for the male sample population. Broken down to age groups, 3.2% of the thirteen years old group and 19.2% of the eighteen years old group had experienced intercourse, an almost six fold increase in the older age group. To find out the differences between those who had and not had experienced intercourse the group was then divided into two comparative groups by same sex and age variables. Findings from comparative analysis identified five ecological system risk factors among the youth sample that had intercourse;First, individual factor:adolescents who thought less of themselves or didn't consider their potentials, those more exposed other risk behaviors such as drinking, smoking, drugs, runaway and come in contact with pornography, those who thought they knew more about sex and etc. Second, family factor:those who thought family was less important, had less supportive family, higher or lower income family and etc. Third, peer factor:Both groups thought friends were important and had their support. The group with intercourse experience seems to be think that more peers are experiencing other risk behavior. Fourth, school factor:Those in the group who had experienced intercourse seems to think school is less important and with lower academic achievements. Fifth, community factor:There were no statistical significant differences found between the two groups. The overall results from this study implies that if we want to prevent our youths from having unprepared intercourse during adolescence the significance of having meaningful emerging self, family relationship and school experience is important. This study identified the risk factors leading to adolescent sexual intercourse but further research is necessary in finding out about their predictability.

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