• Title/Summary/Keyword: peaks-over-threshold

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A Determination of Magnitude and Frequency of River Floods (하천 홍수량의 크기 및 빈도 결정)

  • Noh, Jae Sik;Lee, Kil Choon
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.141-150
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    • 1992
  • In this study, six gaging stations(T/M bureau) in the Han River basin were selected for flood frequency analysis and was carried out frequency analysis by POT(peaks Over a Threshold) model where existing flood data of short record length are available. Frequency and magnitudes of each station floods in the river basins were estimated by POT model based on statistical method, and also were compared with standard errors to verify applicability of the estimates by POT model. Furthermore, in order to evaluate for the adequate design flood which is needed for the design of the hydrologic structures in the ungaged watersheds, it is considered to be possible to develop the statistical regionalized model by regional frequency analysis.

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Estimation of Deepwater Design Wave Height on Southern Coast of Korean Peninsula by Empirical Simulation Technique (경험모의기법에 의한 남해안의 심해 설계파고 산정)

  • Suh, Kyung-Duck;Kim, Mun-Ki;Chun, Je-Ho
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.265-275
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    • 2011
  • Estimation of wave height is the most important factor in the design of coastal structures such as breakwaters. In the present study, typhoon wind distribution was constructed by applying the parametric model of Holland (1980), and numerical simulations on the typhoon-generated waves were carried out using the WAM. The typhoons which affected the southern coast of the Korean Peninsula and several hypothetical typhoons were selected to construct the training sets. Design wave heights were estimated using the empirical simulation technique for various return periods and wave directions. The estimated design wave heights were compared with those by the peaks-over-threshold method and the results of KORDI(2005).

Assessment of Water Piling-up behind a Submerged Breakwater during Storm Events (단기 태·폭풍 기인 잠제 배후의 Piling-up 현상 평가)

  • Son, Donghwi;Yoo, Jeseon;Kim, Mujong
    • Journal of Coastal Disaster Prevention
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    • v.5 no.4
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    • pp.203-210
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    • 2018
  • It is generally known that submerged breakwaters can reduce the incoming wave energy without disturbing the beach scenery. However, a submerged breakwater is also able to cause a setup of the sea level in the protected area which is also called as water piling-up. Since the piling-up can result in longshore currents, sediment transports, and unexpected beach erosion, understanding about the piling-up process is required prior to designing the nearshore structures. In this study, the water piling-up behind a submerged breakwater is assessed in the time of storm events. For the study area, Anmok beach in Gyeonso-dong, Gangwon-do is selected. 1-year, 5-year, 10-year, and 50-year return-values were derived from Peaks-Over-Threshold(POT) method and those are applied as offshore boundary conditions for the numerical simulation. The numerical results of the piling-up were assessed with regard to the wave steepness and the height of the submerged breakwater. With increase of both significant wave height and the height of the submerged breakwater, the piling-up parameter is also increased which can lead to erosion of dry beach behind the structure.

Cyber risk measurement via loss distribution approach and GARCH model

  • Sanghee Kim;Seongjoo Song
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.30 no.1
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    • pp.75-94
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    • 2023
  • The growing trend of cyber risk has put forward the importance of cyber risk management. Cyber risk is defined as an accidental or intentional risk related to information and technology assets. Although cyber risk is a subset of operational risk, it is reported to be handled differently from operational risk due to its different features of the loss distribution. In this study, we aim to detect the characteristics of cyber loss and find a suitable model by measuring value at risk (VaR). We use the loss distribution approach (LDA) and the time series model to describe cyber losses of financial and non-financial business sectors, provided in SAS® OpRisk Global Data. Peaks over threshold (POT) method is also incorporated to improve the risk measurement. For the financial sector, the LDA and GARCH model with POT perform better than those without POT, respectively. The same result is obtained for the non-financial sector, although the differences are not significant. We also build a two-dimensional model reflecting the dependence structure between financial and non-financial sectors through a bivariate copula and check the model adequacy through VaR.

Extreme Sea Level Analysis in Coastal Waters around Korean Peninsula Using Empirical Simulation Technique (경험모의기법을 이용한 한반도 주변 해역에서의 극치해면 분석)

  • Suh, Kyung-Duck;Yang, Young-Chul;Jun, Ki-Chun;Lee, Dong-Young
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.254-265
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    • 2009
  • The estimation of the extreme sea level is necessary in the design of offshore or coastal structures. In this paper, the storm surge data calculated numerically at 52 harbors around the Korean Peninsula are analyzed by using annual maximum series(AMS), peaks over threshold(POT) and empirical simulation technique(EST). The maximum likelihood method was used to estimate the parameters in both AMS and POT models. The Generalized Pareto distribution was used and Chi-square and Kolmogorov-Smirnov goodness-of-fit tests were performed with the acceptable significance level 5%. The extreme sea levels were also evaluated by EST including tide effect, showing similar results as given by Jeong et al.(2008).

Extrapolation of extreme traffic load effects on bridges based on long-term SHM data

  • Xia, Y.X.;Ni, Y.Q.
    • Smart Structures and Systems
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    • v.17 no.6
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    • pp.995-1015
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    • 2016
  • In the design and condition assessment of bridges, it is usually necessary to take into consideration the extreme conditions which are not expected to occur within a short time period and thus require an extrapolation from observations of limited duration. Long-term structural health monitoring (SHM) provides a rich database to evaluate the extreme conditions. This paper focuses on the extrapolation of extreme traffic load effects on bridges using long-term monitoring data of structural strain. The suspension Tsing Ma Bridge (TMB), which carries both highway and railway traffic and is instrumented with a long-term SHM system, is taken as a testbed for the present study. Two popular extreme value extrapolation methods: the block maxima approach and the peaks-over-threshold approach, are employed to extrapolate the extreme stresses induced by highway traffic and railway traffic, respectively. Characteristic values of the extreme stresses with a return period of 120 years (the design life of the bridge) obtained by the two methods are compared. It is found that the extrapolated extreme stresses are robust to the extrapolation technique. It may owe to the richness and good quality of the long-term strain data acquired. These characteristic extremes are also compared with the design values and found to be much smaller than the design values, indicating conservative design values of traffic loading and a safe traffic-loading condition of the bridge. The results of this study can be used as a reference for the design and condition assessment of similar bridges carrying heavy traffic, analogous to the TMB.

A Study on the Laminar Burning Velocity and Flame Structure with H2 Content in a Wide Range of Equivalence Ratio of Syngas(H2/CO)/Air Premixed Flames (넓은 당량비 구간에서 수소함유량에 따른 합성가스(H2/CO)/공기 예혼합화염의 연소속도 및 화염구조에 관한 연구)

  • Jeong, Byeong-Gyu;Lee, Kee-Man
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Combustion
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.17-28
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    • 2014
  • In this study, the laminar burning velocity of syngas fuel($H_2/CO$) and flame structure with various hydrogen contents were studied using both experimental measurements and detailed kinetic analysis. The laminar burning velocities were measured by the angle method of Bunsen flame configuration and the numerical calculations including chemical kinetic analysis were made using CHEMKIN Package with USC-Mech II. A wide range of syngas mixture compositions such as $H_2$ : CO = 10 : 90, 25 : 75, 50 : 50, 75:25 and equivalence ratios from lean condition of 0.5 to rich condition of 5.0 have been considered. The experimental results of burning velocity were in good agreement with previous other research data and numerical simulation. Also, it was shown that the experimental measurements of laminar burning velocity linearly increased with the increment of $H_2$ content although the burning velocity of hydrogen is faster than the carbon monoxide above 10 times. This phenomenon is attributed to the rapid production of hydrogen related radicals such as H radical at the early stage of combustion, which is confirmed the linear increase of radical concentrations on kinetic analysis. Particular concerns in this study are the characteristics of burning velocity and flame structure different from lean condition for rich condition. The decrease of OH radicals and double peaks are observed with $H_2$ content in rich condition once $H_2$ fraction exceeds over threshold.

Ecological Characteristics of 28-spotted Larger Lady Beetle, Henosepilachna vigintioctomaculata (Motschulsky) (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae) and Its Seasonal Fluctuation in Gangneung, Korea (큰이십팔점박이무당벌레(Henosepilachna vigintioctomaculata (Motschulsky))의 생태적 특성 및 강릉지역 발생소장)

  • Kwon, Min;Kim, Ju-Il;Kim, Jeom-Soon
    • Korean journal of applied entomology
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    • v.49 no.3
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    • pp.199-204
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    • 2010
  • The seasonal fluctuation of the large 28-spotted lady beetle, Henosepilachna vigintioctomaculata (Motschulsky), was observed in potato fields of Gangneung region, Gangwondo Province. The effects of their leaf consumption over a 24 hour period and developmental periods by different temperatures were investigated, and then the developmental threshold (DT) and effective cumulative temperature (ET) of each stage were calculated. Various developmental stages of H. vigintioctomaculata were captured in the fields from May to September, with three peaks in late May, late June, and late August. Leaf consumption by larval stages increased with the development of instar. The 4th instar larvae consumed potato leaves much more than other stages. Egg hatchability and emergence rate of H. vigintioctomaculata were lower at $10^{\circ}C$ and $30^{\circ}C$, but higher at around $20{\sim}23^{\circ}C$. The developmental periods of each stage became shorter as temperature increased; 90 days at $10^{\circ}C$, 40 days at $20^{\circ}C$ and 25 days at $25^{\circ}C$. Base on developmental velocity to temperature, calculated DT and ET were $7.3^{\circ}C$ and 83.

Isolation and Identification of Fatty Acid and Volatile Compounds from Tuna Fish Oil with Supercritical Carbon Dioxide (초임계 이산화탄소를 이용한 참치안구유로부터 지방산 및 휘발성 성분의 분리 동정)

  • Roh, Hyung-Seob;Youn, Hyun-Seok;Park, Ji-Yeon;Sin, Sang-Kyu;Lee, Min-Kyung;Back, Sung-Sin;Chun, Byung-Soo
    • Journal of Marine Bioscience and Biotechnology
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    • v.1 no.2
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    • pp.105-118
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    • 2006
  • Isolation and Identification of fatty acid and volatile compounds in tuna fish oil were successfully carried out using supercritical carbon dioxide. Samples of the oil were extracted in a 56 ml semi-batch stainless steel vessel under conditions which ranged from 80 to 200 bar and 40 to $60^{\circ}C$ with carbon dioxide flows from 10 ml/min. Volatiles in the oil extracted from the samples with supercritical carbon dioxide were analyzed by gas chromatography, mass detector with canister system. The extracts were contained with various fatty acids, 57.0% of unsaturated fatty acids such as docosahexaenoic acid(DHA) and eicosapentaenoic acid(EPA), and 43.0% of saturated fatty acids. The aroma compounds in the oil showed over 129 peaks, of which 100 compounds were identified. Volatile components included 2,4-hepatadienal(fishy), dimethyldisulfide (unpleasant), dimethyltrisulfide (unpleasant) and 2-nonenal(fatty). The isolation efficiency of the volatile compounds from the samples was 99.4% at $50^{\circ}C$ and 200 bar.

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Enhancing Electrical Properties of Sol-Gel Processed IGZO Thin-Film Transistors through Nitrogen Atmosphere Electron Beam Irradiation (질소분위기 전자빔 조사에 의한 졸-겔 IGZO 박막 트랜지스터의 전기적 특성 향상)

  • Jeeho Park;Young-Seok Song;Sukang Bae;Tae-Wook Kim
    • Journal of the Microelectronics and Packaging Society
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    • v.30 no.3
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    • pp.56-63
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    • 2023
  • In this paper, we studied the effect of electron beam irradiation on sol-gel indium-gallium-zinc oxide (IGZO) thin films under air and nitrogen atmosphere and carried out the electrical characterization of the s ol-gel IGZO thin film transistors (TFTs). To investigate the optical properties, crystalline structure and chemical state of the sol-gel IGZO thin films after electron beam irradiation, UV-Visible spectroscopy, X-ray diffraction (XRD), and X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) were carried out. The sol-gel IGZO thin films exhibited over 80% transmittance in the visible range. The XRD analysis confirmed the amorphous nature of the sol-gel IGZO films regardless of electron beam irradiation. When electron beam irradiation was conducted in a nitrogen (N2) atmosphere, we observed an increased proportion of peaks related to M-O bonding contributed to the improved quality of the thin films. Sol-gel IGZO TFTs subjected to electron beam exposure in a nitrogen atmosphere exhibited enhanced electrical characteristics in terms of on/off ratio and electron mobility. In addition, the electrical parameters of the transistor (on/off ratio, threshold voltage, electron mobility, subthreshold swing) remained relatively stable over time, indicating that the electron beam exposure process in a nitrogen atmosphere could enhance the reliability of IGZO-based thin-film transistors in the fabrication of sol-gel processed TFTs.