• Title/Summary/Keyword: partial duration series

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Estimation of Frequency-Based Flood Using At-Site Frequency Analysis and Regional Frequency Analysis (지점빈도분석과 지역빈도분석을 이용한 확률홍수량 산정)

  • Lee, Kil-Seong;Park, Kyung-Shin;Chung, Eun-Sung;Kim, Sang-Ug
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2008.05a
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    • pp.2249-2253
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    • 2008
  • 본 연구에서는 지점빈도분석과 지역빈도분석을 이용하여 확률홍수량을 산정 하였다. 지점빈도 분석은 Annual Maximum Series(AMS) 및 Partial Duration Series(PDS)를 이용하여 자료를 추출하고 각 자료에 적합한 확률분포를 이용하여 확률홍수량을 산정하였다. 그러나 AMS를 이용한 확률홍수량의 산정은 표본의 개수가 부족하면 이에 따른 변동성(variability)이 커지게 되는 단점이 존재하며, PDS를 사용하면 임계값(threshold)에 따른 주관적 영향이 결과에 반영되는 단점이 존재하는 것으로 알려져 있다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 PDS를 사용하는 경우의 단점을 해결하기 위해 연 1.7회의 발생횟수를 갖는 자료를 추출하고 몬테카를로 모의시험을 통하여 주관적 영향을 제거하였다. 또한 두 가지 방법에 의해 산정된 확률홍수량의 비교검토를 위해 지역빈도분석을 수행하였다. 유역의 면적과 일평균강우량으로부터 확률홍수량을 산정할 수 있는 것으로 알려진 Bayesian-Generalized Least Square(B-GLS) 방법을 이용하여 확률홍수량을 산정하였다. 최종적으로 안양천 유역의 13개 소유역에 대한 세 가지 방법에 의해 산정된 확률홍수량을 비교 검토한 결과, 특정한 방법이 항상 우수하다는 결론은 얻을 수 없었으나 각 유역별로 AMS가 가장 크고 B-GLS가 가장 작은 확률홍수량을 갖는 경향을 나타내었다.

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Regional Drought Frequency Analysis of Monthly Precipitation with L-Moments Method in Nakdong River Basin (L-Moments법에 의한 낙동강유역 월강우량의 지역가뭄빈도해석)

  • 김성원
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.8 no.4
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    • pp.431-441
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    • 1999
  • In this study, the regional frequency analysis is used to determine each subbasin drought frequency with reliable monthly precipitation and the L-Moments method which is almost unbiased and has very nearly a normal distribution is used for the parameter estimation of monthly precipitation time series in Nakdong river basin. As the result of this study, the duration of '93-'94 is most severe drought year than any other water year and the drought frequency is established as compared the regional frequency analysis result of cumulative precipitation of 12th duration months in each subbasin with that of 12th duration months in the major drought duration. The Linear regression equation is induced according to linear regression analysis of drought frequency between Nakdong total basin and each subbasin of the same drought duration. Therefore, as the foundation of this study, it can be applied proposed method and procedure of this study to the water budget analysis considering safety standards for the design of impounding facilities large-scale river basin and for this purpose, above all, it is considered that expansion of reliable preciptation data is needed in watershed rainfall station.

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The Statistical Model for Predicting Flood Frequency

  • Noh, Jae-Sik;Lee, Kil-Choon
    • Korean Journal of Hydrosciences
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    • v.4
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    • pp.51-63
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    • 1993
  • This study is to verify the applicability of statistical models in predicting flood frequency at the stage gaging stations of which the flow is under natural condition in the Han River basin. The results of the study show that the statistical flood frequency models were proven to be fairly reasonable to apply in practice, and also were compared with sampling variance to calibrate the statistical efficiency of the estimators of the T year floods Q(T) by two different flood frequency models. As a result, it was showed that for return periods greater than about T = 10 years the annual exceedance series estimators of Q(T) has smaller sampling variance than the annual maximum series estimators. It was showed that for the range of return periods the partial duration series estimators of !(T) has smaller sampling variance than the annual maximum series estimate only if the POT model contains at least 2N(N : record length) items or more in order to estimate Q(T) more efficiently than the ANNMAX model.

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Comparative Analysis of Deisgn Low Flow by L-moment in the Weibull-3 and Wakeby distributions (Weibull-3 및 Wakeby 분포모형의 L-모멘트법에 의한 설계갈수량 비교분석)

  • 이순혁
    • Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.42 no.3
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    • pp.45-55
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    • 2000
  • This study was carried out to derive optimal design low flows bythe Weibull-3 and Wakeby distributions for the partial consecutive duration series at seven watersheds along Han. nagdong, Geum Yeongsan and Seomjin river systems. L-coefficient of variation L-skewness and L-kurtosis were calculated by the L-moment ratio respectively. Parameters were estimated by the method of L-Moments with consecutive duration. Design low flows obtained by method of L-Moments using with consecutive duration, Design low flows obtained by method of L-Moments using different methods for plotting positions formulas in the Weibull-3 and Wakeby distributions were compared by the Root Mean Square Errors(RMSE). It has shown that design low flows derived by the method of L-moments using Weivull plotting position formula in Wakeby distribution were much closer to those of the observed data in comparison with those obtained by the methods of L-moments with the different formulas for plotting positions in Weibull-3 distribution from the viewpoint of Root Mean Square Errors.

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Orographic Precipitation Analysis with GPD Model and Linear Regression (GPD 모형 및 선형회귀분석을 이용한 산악형 강수 해석)

  • Um, Myoung-Jin;Yun, Hye-Seon;Cho, Won-Cheol;Heo, Jun-Haeng
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2008.05a
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    • pp.1053-1057
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    • 2008
  • 본 연구에서는 산악형 강수 해석을 위해 제주도내 강우관측 자료를 이용하여 확률강우량 산정 및 고도와의 선형회귀분석을 수행하였다. 제주도내 강우관측 자료는 기상관서 4개소 및 AWS(Automatic Weather System, 자동기상관측소) 13개소의 자료를 활용하였다. 확률강우량 산정시 AWS 강우관측 자료는 AMS(Annual Maximum Series, 연 최대치 계열) 모형을 적용하기에는 자료기간이 충분하지 않으므로 짧은 자료기간에 적합한 PDS(Partial Duration Series, 부분 기간치 계열) 모형을 적용하였다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 PDS의 대표적인 분포형인 GPD(Generalized Pareto Distribution)를 적용하여 지속시간별 확률강우량을 산정하였다. 산정된 지속시간별 확률강우량과 고도와의 관계를 확인하기 위하여 선형회귀분석을 수행하였다. 회귀분석 결과 확률강우량은 고도가 증가함에 따라 선형적으로 증가하였다. 또한, 재현기간이 길어질수록 고도에 따른 확률강우량 증가율도 증가하였다. 다만, 재현기간과 관계없이 지속시간이 짧을 경우 확률강우량과 고도와의 선형 관계는 약해지는 것으로 나타났다.

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The Statistical Model for Predicting Flood Frequency (홍수 빈도 예측을 위한 통계학적 모형)

  • 노재식;이길춘
    • Water for future
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.89-97
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    • 1992
  • This study is to verify the applicability of statistical models for predicting flood frequency at the stage gaging stations selected by considering whether the flow is natural condition in the Han River basin. From the result of verification, this statistical flood frequency models showed that is fairly reasonable to apply in practice, and also were compared with sampling variance to calibrate the statistical dfficiency of the estimate of the T year flood Q(T) by two different flood frequency models. As a result, it was showed that for return periods greater than about T=10 years the annual exceedence series estimate of Q(T) has smaller sampling variance than the annual maximum series estimate. It was showed that for the range of return periods the partial duration series estimate of Q(T) has smaller sampling varianed than the annual maximum series estimate only if the POT model contains at least 2N(N:record length)items or more in order to estimate Q(T) more efficiently than the ANNMAX model.

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A Case Series of Symptomatic Distal Biceps Tendinopathy

  • Lee, Jung Hyun;Kim, Kyung Chul;Lee, Ji-Ho;Ahn, Kee Baek;Rhyou, In Hyeok
    • Clinics in Shoulder and Elbow
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.213-219
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    • 2018
  • Background: The study of conservative and surgical treatment of distal biceps tendinopathy and associated biceps tendon partial rupture. Methods: Twenty-one cases with distal biceps tendonitis and partial ruptures were studied who visited Pohang Semyeong Christianity Hospital from June 2010 to August 2017. The mean age was 57.1 years (39-69 years), 14 males and 7 females. The mean duration of symptom at the time of first visit was 4.9 months (0.2-14 months). Ultrasonography and magnetic resonance imaging were performed for patients with severe symptoms. According to the severity of the symptoms, splint immobilization, oral nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs, and ultrasound-guided steroid injection were performed. Surgical treatment was performed if the patient did not respond to conservative treatment for 3 to 6 months or longer. Results: There were 9 cases of partial rupture of the distal biceps tendon associated with distal biceps tendinopathy on imaging studies. Conservative treatment showed symptomatic improvement in 16 of 21 cases. In 4 cases with a relatively mild symptom, anti-inflammatory analgesics and intermittent splinting showed good result. In 12 cases, symptoms improved after ultrasonography-guided steroid injection. Surgical treatment was performed on 5 cases that did not respond to conservative treatment. Conclusions: Conservative treatment of distal biceps tendinopathy may promise good results. However, in case of partial tear of the distal biceps tendon and refractory to conservative treatment, surgical treatment may be needed.

A Comparative Coagulopathic Study for Treatment of Vasospasm by Using Low- and High-molecular Weight Hydroxyethyl Starches

  • Hwang, Sung-Ho;Won, Yu-Sam;Yu, Jang-Sun;Yang, Jae-Young;Choi, Chun-Sik
    • Journal of Korean Neurosurgical Society
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    • v.42 no.5
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    • pp.377-381
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    • 2007
  • Objective : High-molecular-weight hydroxyethyl starch (HES) compromises blood coagulation more than does low-molecular-weight HES. We compared the effects of low- and high-molecular-weight HES for the treatment of vasospasm and investigated the dose relationship with each other. Methods : Retrospectively, in a series of consecutive 102 patients with subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH), 35 patients developed clinical symptoms of vasospasm of these fourteen patients were treated with low-molecular weight HES for volume expansion while the other 21 received high-molecular-weight HES as continuous intravenous infusion. Prothrombin time (PT), partial thromboplastin time (PIT), fibrinogen level, and platelet count were all measured prior to initiation, during treatment and after termination of therapy for symptomatic vasospasm. The total dose of HES ranged from 5 L to 14 L and median infusion duration was 10 days. Results : A more pronounced PTT prolongation was observed in high-molecular-weight HES group compared with low-molecular-weight HES group. No other coagulation parameters were altered. Dosage (=duration) shows a positive correlation with PTT. Clinically, significant bleeding episodes were noted in four patients who received high-molecular-weight HES. Conclusion : Coagulopathy was developed in direct proportion to molecular weight of starch and dosages. We propose the extreme caution in the administration of HES solution for the vasospasm treatment.

Frequency Analysis of Partial Duration Series for Flood Discharge of Rivers (하천 홍수량에 대한 부분시계열 빈도분석)

  • Lee, Gyu-Min;Jun, Kyung-Soo
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2010.05a
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    • pp.174-178
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    • 2010
  • 일반적으로 설계홍수량은 강우빈도 해석으로 설계강우량을 결정하고 이를 유역유출모형에 적용하여 계산된 유출량을 정상류모의를 통하여 산정하게 된다. 이러한 기존의 설계홍수량 산정방법은 설계강우량 산정에 있어 임의성을 포함하게 된다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 대상 하천 구간의 실측 수위자료를 사용하여 홍수량을 산정하는 방법을 제시하고자 한다. 분석대상 자료로서 남한강 여주지점의 실측 시유량을 선정하였으며 충주댐 완공 이후인 1988년부터 2007년까지의 기간을 대상으로 하였다. 빈도해석을 위한 분석 자료군을 연최대치 계열과 POT(Peaks Over Threshold) 계열의 두 가지 그룹으로 추출하여 홍수량을 추정하였다. 연최대치 계열 분석 결과 Weibull 분포를 적절한 분포형으로 선정하였으며 부분시계열 POT 빈도해석을 수집자료 전체와 기간을 전, 후 10년씩 나눈 세 그룹으로 나누어 수행하였다. 빈도별 확률홍수량 추정 결과 연최대치 계열을 사용한 결과가 부분시계열 POT 방법을 사용한 결과보다 크게 산정되었으며 자료 전체 기간에 대한 POT 빈도해석 결과보다 최근 10년간의 자료를 사용한 결과가 더 크게 나타나 홍수량의 증가 경향을 확인 할 수 있었다.

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A Clinical study of Paranasal Sinusitis (副鼻洞炎에 關한 臨床的 硏究)

  • Choi, In-hwa;Chae, Byung-yoon
    • The Journal of Korean Medicine Ophthalmology and Otolaryngology and Dermatology
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.269-283
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    • 1998
  • Paranasal sinusitis, especially chronic is one of the most common diseases in the field of otolaryngology. It is similar to Bee Yeun(鼻淵) in oriental medicine. Most cases of sinusitis are due to anatomical abnormalities within ostiomeatal unit or disturbed mucocilliary flow. The ostiomeatal unit is the first place of contact with bacteria and allergens during aspiration, and it can be obstructed easily by minute mucosal swelling due to anatomical narrowness. Therefore the treatment of paranasal sinusitis is not easy and often leads to recurrences in spite of long term treatment or surgical therapy. We studied 83 patients who had visited our hospital with complaints of nasal symptoms; they had been diagnosed as having paranasal sinusitis through an endoscopy or CT scan in another hospital and were diagnosed as the paranasal sinusitis through a PNS series. The results were as follows: 1. Age and sex distribution: The most common occurence was found between 6-10 and 1-5 years old. The Males Were 52($62.7\%$) and Females were 31($37.3\%$). 2. By residence 58 cases lived in apts: 25 lived in houses. 3. The longest duration of disease varied from a lower of 13 to a higher of 36 months in 22 cases and from 7 to 12 months in 21 cases. 4. The most common complication & past history with otolaryngologic or allergic disease were adenoid or tonsil hypertrophy & tonsillectomy and adenoidectomy (21 cases). In decreasing order the others were atopic dematitis, otitis media with effusion and allergic rhinitis. 5. Distribution of paranasal sinus disease was most common in both maxillary sinuses in 52 cases. 12 cases showed a normal PNS X-ray series but these had been diagnosed as paranasal sinusitis with an endoscopy or CT scan in another hospital. 6. Common sinusitis - related symptoms were from highest incidence to lowest nasal obstruction, postnasal drip rhinorrhea, frontal headache, cough with sputum. 7. The most administered of prescription was Gamibangpoongtongsungsan and Sunbangpaedoksan extract. 8. In 26 cases the subjects showed significant improvement symptoms in PNS X-ray series : In 21 case showed partial improvement symptoms.

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