• Title/Summary/Keyword: parameters estimation

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Stochastic Simulation Model of Fire Occurrence in the Republic of Korea (한국 산불 발생에 대한 확률 시뮬레이션 모델 개발)

  • Lee, Byungdoo;Lee, Yohan;Lee, Myung Bo;Albers, Heidi J.
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.100 no.1
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    • pp.70-78
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    • 2011
  • In this study, we develop a fire stochastic simulation model by season based on the historical fire data in Korea. The model is utilized to generate sequences of fire events that are consistent with Korean fire history. We employ a three-stage approach. First, a random draw from a Bernoulli distribution is used to determine if any fire occurs for each day of a simulated fire season. Second, if a fire does occur, a random draw from a geometric multiplicity distribution determines their number. Last, ignition times for each fire are randomly drawn from a Poisson distribution. This specific distributional forms are chosen after analysis of Korean historical fire data. Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) is used to estimate the primary parameters of the stochastic models. Fire sequences generated with the model appear to follow historical patterns with respect to diurnal distribution and total number of fires per year. We expect that the results of this study will assist a fire manager for planning fire suppression policies and suppression resource allocations.

Estimation of Genetic Parameters for Characterization of Carcass Traits and Fatty Acid in Hanwoo (한우 등심의 지방산 유전특성 분석을 위한 유전모수 추정)

  • Kim, Hyeon Kwon;Sun, Du Won;Joo, Seon tae;Lee, Jung Gyu
    • Journal of agriculture & life science
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    • v.53 no.4
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    • pp.55-59
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    • 2019
  • Hanwoo has improved the quality of carcass traits. Especially, the higher the grade, the better the texture and taste of Hanwoo. One of the many factors that determine consumer preferences in food is the flavor. The flavor of food is expressed through heat treatment, and fat, carbohydrate and water-soluble compound are important ingredients for flavor. Therefore, The purpose of this study was to investigate the characteristics of fatty acids and carcass traits of 373 Hanwoos. The oleic acid (C18:1) and linolenic acid (C18:3) contents were 48.08% and 0.11%, respectively, while the carcass weight, Eye muscle area, back fat thickness and marbling score of the carcass trait were 383.73 kg, 83.88 ㎠, 10.91 mm, 3.89, respectively. The heritability of oleic acid was estimated to be 0.726, and the phenotypic correlation between eye muscle area and marbling score was estimated to be 0.105 and 0.141, respectively. The phenotype of the marbling score and eye muscle area were positively correlated with Oleic acid. Therefore, the improvement of these two traits seems to affect the increase of unsaturated fatty acid content.

Detection of Drought Stress in Soybean Plants using RGB-based Vegetation Indices (RGB 작물 생육지수를 활용한 콩 한발 스트레스 판별기술 평가)

  • Sang, Wan-Gyu;Kim, Jun-Hwan;Baek, Jae-Kyeong;Kwon, Dongwon;Ban, Ho-Young;Cho, Jung-Il;Seo, Myung-Chul
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.340-348
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    • 2021
  • Continuous monitoring of RGB (Red, Green, Blue) vegetation indices is important to apply remote sensing technology for the estimation of crop growth. In this study, we evaluated the performance of eight vegetation indices derived from soybean RGB images with various agronomic parameters under drought stress condition. Drought stress influenced the behavior of various RGB vegetation indices related soybean canopy architecture and leaf color. In particular, reported vegetation indices such as ExGR (Excessive green index minus excess red index), Ipca (Principal Component Analysis Index), NGRDI (Normalized Green Red Difference Index), VARI (Visible Atmospherically Resistance Index), SAVI (Soil Adjusted Vegetation Index) were effective tools in obtaining canopy coverage and leaf chlorophyll content in soybean field. In addition, the RGB vegetation indices related to leaf color responded more sensitively to drought stress than those related to canopy coverage. The PLS-DA (Partial Squares-Discriminant Analysis) results showed that the separation of RGB vegetation indices was distinct by drought stress. The results, yet preliminary, display the potential of applying vegetation indices based on RGB images as a tool for monitoring crop environmental stress.

Development of a surrogate model based on temperature for estimation of evapotranspiration and its use for drought index applicability assessment (증발산 산정을 위한 온도기반의 대체모형 개발 및 가뭄지수 적용성 평가)

  • Kim, Ho-Jun;Kim, Kyoungwook;Kwon, Hyun-Han
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.54 no.11
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    • pp.969-983
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    • 2021
  • Evapotranspiration, one of the hydrometeorological components, is considered an important variable for water resource planning and management and is primarily used as input data for hydrological models such as water balance models. The FAO56 PM method has been recommended as a standard approach to estimate the reference evapotranspiration with relatively high accuracy. However, the FAO56 PM method is often challenging to apply because it requires considerable hydrometeorological variables. In this perspective, the Hargreaves equation has been widely adopted to estimate the reference evapotranspiration. In this study, a set of parameters of the Hargreaves equation was calibrated with relatively long-term data within a Bayesian framework. Statistical index (CC, RMSE, IoA) is used to validate the model. RMSE for monthly results reduced from 7.94 ~ 24.91 mm/month to 7.94 ~ 24.91 mm/month for the validation period. The results confirmed that the accuracy was significantly improved compared to the existing Hargreaves equation. Further, the evaporative demand drought index (EDDI) based on the evaporative demand (E0) was proposed. To confirm the effectiveness of the EDDI, this study evaluated the estimated EDDI for the recent drought events from 2014 to 2015 and 2018, along with precipitation and SPI. As a result of the evaluation of the Han-river watershed in 2018, the weekly EDDI increased to more than 2 and it was confirmed that EDDI more effectively detects the onset of drought caused by heatwaves. EDDI can be used as a drought index, particularly for heatwave-driven flash drought monitoring and along with SPI.

Research Status of Satellite-based Evapotranspiration and Soil Moisture Estimations in South Korea (위성기반 증발산량 및 토양수분량 산정 국내 연구동향)

  • Choi, Ga-young;Cho, Younghyun
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.38 no.6_1
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    • pp.1141-1180
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    • 2022
  • The application of satellite imageries has increased in the field of hydrology and water resources in recent years. However, challenges have been encountered on obtaining accurate evapotranspiration and soil moisture. Therefore, present researches have emphasized the necessity to obtain estimations of satellite-based evapotranspiration and soil moisture with related development researches. In this study, we presented the research status in Korea by investigating the current trends and methodologies for evapotranspiration and soil moisture. As a result of examining the detailed methodologies, we have ascertained that, in general, evapotranspiration is estimated using Energy balance models, such as Surface Energy Balance Algorithm for Land (SEBAL) and Mapping Evapotranspiration with Internalized Calibration (METRIC). In addition, Penman-Monteith and Priestley-Taylor equations are also used to estimate evapotranspiration. In the case of soil moisture, in general, active (AMSR-E, AMSR2, MIRAS, and SMAP) and passive (ASCAT and SAR)sensors are used for estimation. In terms of statistics, deep learning, as well as linear regression equations and artificial neural networks, are used for estimating these parameters. There were a number of research cases in which various indices were calculated using satellite-based data and applied to the characterization of drought. In some cases, hydrological cycle factors of evapotranspiration and soil moisture were calculated based on the Land Surface Model (LSM). Through this process, by comparing, reviewing, and presenting major detailed methodologies, we intend to use these references in related research, and lay the foundation for the advancement of researches on the calculation of satellite-based hydrological cycle data in the future.

Estimation of the Hydrological Design Frequency of Local Rivers Using Bayesian Inference and a Sensitivity Analysis of Evaluation Factors (평가인자 가중치에 대한 베이지안 추론과 민감도 분석을 통한 적정 하천설계빈도 결정)

  • Ryu, Jae Hee;Kim, Ji Eun;Lee, Jin-Young;Park, Kyung-Woon;Kim, Tae-Woong
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.42 no.5
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    • pp.617-626
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    • 2022
  • In Korea, annual precipitation and its variability have gradually increased since modern meteorological observations began, and the risk of disasters has also been increasing due to significant regional variations and recent abnormal climate conditions. Given that damage from storms and floods mainly occurs around rivers, it is crucial to determine the appropriate design frequency for river-related projects. This study examined existing design practices used to determine hydrological design frequencies and suggested a new method to determine appropriate design frequencies. The study collected available data pertaining to seven evaluation factors, specifically the basin areas, shape parameters, channel slopes, stream orders, backwater effect reaches, extreme rainfall frequencies, and urbanized flood inundation areasfor 413 local rivers in Chungcheongnam-do in Korea. The estimated weights for areas of extreme rainfall frequencies and urbanized flood inundation were found to be 18, having a great effect on determining the design frequency. Compared with the established design frequency in previous government reports, the estimated design frequency increased for 255 rivers and decreased for 158 rivers.

A study on the cold forging die geometry optimal design for forging load reduction (성형하중 감소를 위한 냉간단조금형 최적설계에 관한 연구)

  • Hwang, Joon;Lee, Seung-Hyun
    • Journal of the Korean Crystal Growth and Crystal Technology
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    • v.32 no.6
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    • pp.251-261
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    • 2022
  • This paper describes the finite element analysis and die design change of spring retainer forging process to reduce the cold forging load and plastic forming stress concentration. Plastic deformation analysis was carried out in order to understand the forming process of workpieces and elastic stress analysis of the die set was performed in order to get basic data for the die fatigue life estimation. Cold forging die design was set up to each process with different four types analysis progressing, the upper and lower dies shapes with combination of fillets and chamfers shapes of cold forging dies. This study suggested optimal cold forging die geometry to reduce cold forging load. The design parameters of fillets and chamfers are selected geometry were selected to apply optimization with the DoE (design of experiment) and Taguchi method. DoE and Taguchi method was performed to optimize the workpiece preform shape for spring retainer forging process, it was possible to expect an increase in cold forging die life due to the 20 percentage forging load reduction.

Characteristics of Measurement Errors due to Reflective Sheet Targets - Surveying for Sejong VLBI IVP Estimation (반사 타겟의 관측 오차 특성 분석 - 세종 VLBI IVP 결합 측량)

  • Hong, Chang-Ki;Bae, Tae-Suk
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry and Cartography
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    • v.40 no.4
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    • pp.325-332
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    • 2022
  • Determination of VLBI IVP (Very Long Baseline Interferometry Invariant Point) position with high accuracy is required to compute local tie vectors between the space geodetic techniques. In general, reflective targets are attached on VLBI antenna and slant distances, horizontal and vertical angles are measured from the pillars. Then, adjustment computation is performed by using the mathematical model which connects measurements and unknown parameters. This indicates that the accuracy of the estimated solutions is affected by the accuracy of the measurements. One of issues in local tie surveying, however, is that the reflective targets are not in favorable condition, that is, the reflective sheet target cannot be perfectly aligned to the instrument perpendicularly. Deviation from the line of sight of an instrument may cause different type of measurement errors. This inherent limitation may lead to incorrect stochastic modeling for the measurements in adjustment computation procedures. In this study, error characteristics by measurement types and pillars are analyzed, respectively. The analysis on the studentized residuals is performed after adjustment computation. The normality of the residuals is tested and then equal variance test between the measurement types are performed. The results show that there are differences in variance according to the measurement types. Differences in variance between distances and angle measurements are observed when F-test is performed for the measurements from each pillar. Therefore, more detailed stochastic modeling is required for optimal solutions, especially in local tie survey.

Applicability of QSAR Models for Acute Aquatic Toxicity under the Act on Registration, Evaluation, etc. of Chemicals in the Republic of Korea (화평법에 따른 급성 수생독성 예측을 위한 QSAR 모델의 활용 가능성 연구)

  • Kang, Dongjin;Jang, Seok-Won;Lee, Si-Won;Lee, Jae-Hyun;Lee, Sang Hee;Kim, Pilje;Chung, Hyen-Mi;Seong, Chang-Ho
    • Journal of Environmental Health Sciences
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    • v.48 no.3
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    • pp.159-166
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    • 2022
  • Background: A quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) model was adopted in the Registration, Evaluation, Authorization, and Restriction of Chemicals (REACH, EU) regulations as well as the Act on Registration, Evaluation, etc. of Chemicals (AREC, Republic of Korea). It has been previously used in the registration of chemicals. Objectives: In this study, we investigated the correlation between the predicted data provided by three prediction programs using a QSAR model and actual experimental results (acute fish, daphnia magna toxicity). Through this approach, we aimed to effectively conjecture on the performance and determine the most applicable programs when designating toxic substances through the AREC. Methods: Chemicals that had been registered and evaluated in the Toxic Chemicals Control Act (TCCA, Republic of Korea) were selected for this study. Two prediction programs developed and operated by the U.S. EPA - the Ecological Structure-Activity Relationship (ECOSAR) and Toxicity Estimation Software Tool (T.E.S.T.) models - were utilized along with the TOPKAT (Toxicity Prediction by Komputer Assisted Technology) commercial program. The applicability of these three programs was evaluated according to three parameters: accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity. Results: The prediction analysis on fish and daphnia magna in the three programs showed that the TOPKAT program had better sensitivity than the others. Conclusions: Although the predictive performance of the TOPKAT program when using a single predictive program was found to perform well in toxic substance designation, using a single program involves many restrictions. It is necessary to validate the reliability of predictions by utilizing multiple methods when applying the prediction program to the regulation of chemicals.

Evaluation of Preconsolidation Stress Considering Small-Strain Shear Wave Velocity (미소변형 전단파 속도를 고려한 설행압밀하중 산정)

  • Yoon, Hyung-Koo;Lee, Chang-Ho;Kim, Joon-Han;Lee, Jong-Sub
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.25 no.5
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    • pp.5-16
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    • 2009
  • Preconsolidation stress is one of the important design parameters in soft soils because the behavior of saturated soft soils changes dramatically at the preconsolidation stress. For the estimation of preconsolidation stress, the global vertical settlement without considering micro strain behavior has been considered. The purpose of this study is to propose and verify a new method called the "shear wave velocity method" for determination of the preconsolidation stress reflecting on particle behavior at the small-strain. In this study, the undisturbed soft soils obtained at Busan, Incheon and Gwangyang in Korea were used. The oedometer cell incoporated with the bender elements is used for the consolidation tests under the $K_0$ condition. The preconsolidation stress determined by the proposed method is compared with that estimated by Casagrande (e-log p'), Sridharan (log (1+e)-log p'), and Onitsuka (In(1+e)-log p') methods. This study suggests that the shear wave velocity method may determine simply the preconsolidation stress with considering the small-strain behavior.