• Title/Summary/Keyword: parameters estimation

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Probable Volcanic Flood of the Cheonji Caldera Lake Triggered by Volcanic Eruption of Mt. Baekdusan (백두산 화산분화로 인해 천지에서 발생 가능한 화산홍수)

  • Lee, Khil-Ha;Kim, Sung-Wook;Yoo, Soon-Young;Kim, Sang-Hyun
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.34 no.6
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    • pp.492-506
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    • 2013
  • The historical accounts and materials about the eruption of Mt. Baekdusan as observed by the geological survey is now showing some signs of waking from a long slumber. As a response of the volcanic eruption of Mt. Baekdusan, water release may occur from the stored water in Lake Cheonjii caldera. The volcanic flood is crucial in that it has huge potential energy that can destruct all kinds of man-made structures and that its velocity can reach up to 100 km $hr^{-1}$ to cover hundreds of kilometers of downstream of Lake Cheonji. The ultimate goal of the study is to estimate the level of damage caused by the volcanic flood of Lake Cheon-Ji caldera. As a preliminary study a scenario-based numerical analysis is performed to build hydrographs as a function of time. The analysis is performed for each scenario (breach, magma uplift, combination of uplift and breach, formation of precipitation etc.) and the parameters to require a model structure is chosen on the basis of the historic records of other volcanos. This study only considers the amount of water at the rim site as a function of time for the estimation whereas the downstream routing process is not considered in this study.

Modern Sedimentary Environments Within the Gogunsan Archipelago (고군산군도 내측해역의 현생퇴적환경)

  • Lee, Hee-Jun;Kim, Min-Ji;Kim, Tae-Kyung
    • Ocean and Polar Research
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    • v.30 no.4
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    • pp.519-536
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    • 2008
  • The relatively tranquil area within the Gogunsan Archipelago was for the first time investigated preliminarily with respect to modern sedimentological processes in association with the emplacement of the Saemangeum Dyke. Basic sedimentological observations, bathymetry and surface sediments were performed twice during 2006-2008 to compare the results and elaborate changes during that period of time. In addition, sediment dynamical observations were carried out with latest measuring equipment along two transects crossing the entrances of the archipelago, including 12-hour onboard measurements of current, suspended sediments, temperature, and salinity. This dataset was used to reveal hydrodynamic characteristics for spring season April-May and to estimate the direction and relative magnitude of the net flux of suspended sediments. There occurred three depositional areas (A to C) within the archipelago, where sediment texture was also changed. In area A, around Yami Island and the dyke, and area B, in the center of the archipelago, surface sediments became coarsened over the two-year period; sand content increased 5% at the expense of silt content in the former, whereas silt content increased 3% at the expense of clay content in the latter. By comparison, area C in the western entrance of the archipelago shows a textural trend of fining with more silt and clay (combined increase of 5%) at the expense of sand content. The accumulation of sediments in areas A and B is attributable to the sand and silt resuspended from the seabed sediments off sector 4 of the dyke during the winter. The origin of the fine materials depositing on area C is uncertain at present, although suspended sediments moving offshore around the archipelago may be one of the most likely candidates for the source. The temperature of seawater increased rapidly from $9-10^{\circ}C$ in April to $14-16^{\circ}C$ in May, whereas salinity remained more or less constant at 31-32%o during the two months. Both of these parameters showed little variations with depth through a tidal cycle, suggesting good mixing of seawater without any help of significant waves. The consistency of salinity during a tidal cycle also indicates no insignificant effects of freshwater from the rivers Mangyung and Donjin emitting through the opening gap near Sinsi Island. The suspended sediment concentrations were higher at the entrance between Sunyu and Sinsi islands than at the entrance between Hoenggyong and Sinsi islands, ranging from 20 and 30 mg/l and from 5 and 15 mg/l, respectively at the sea surface. Although tidal currents were variable across a transect between Sunyu and Sinsi islands, the currents across the entrance between Hoenggyong and Sinsi islands flowed consistently in the same direction all over the transect during a tidal cycle. The estimation of net flux of suspended sediments indicates that suspended sediments are transferred to the Gogunsan Archipelago mainly through a relatively deep trough adjacent to Sinsi Island toward the shallow area around Yami Island and the dyke.

Estimation of Vegetation Carbon Budget in South Korea using Ecosystem Model and Spatio-temporal Environmental Information (생태계 모형과 시공간 환경정보를 이용한 우리나라 식생 탄소 수지 추정)

  • Yoo, Seong-Jin;Lee, Woo-Kyun;Son, Yo-Whan;Ito, Akihiko
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.28 no.1
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    • pp.145-157
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    • 2012
  • In this study, we simulated a carbon flux model, so called Vegetation Integrated Simulator for Trace gases (VISIT) using Spatio-temporal Environmental Information, to estimate carbon budgets of vegetation ecosystem in South Korea. As results of the simulation, the model estimated that the annual-average gross primary production (GPP), net primary production (NPP) for 10 years were $91.89Tg\;C\;year^{-1}$, and $40.16Tg\;C\;year^{-1}$, respectively. The model also estimated the vegetation ecosystems in South Korea as a net carbon sink, with a value of $3.51Tg\;C\;year^{-1}$ during the simulation period. Comparing with the anthropogenic emission of South Korea, vegetation ecosystems offsets 3.3% of human emissions as a net carbon sink in 2007. To estimate the carbon budget more accurately, it is important to prepare reliable input datasets. And also, model parameters should be calibrated through comparing with various independent method. The result of this study, however, would be helpful for devising ecosystem management strategies that may help to mitigate global climate change.

A Study on the Dynamic Behavior of the High Speed Railway Tracks (고속철도(高速鐵道)의 궤도(軌道)에 대한 동특성(動特性) 연구(研究))

  • Moon, Je Kil;Kang, Kee Dong
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.97-105
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    • 1992
  • The purpose of this study is to provide the cause and countermeasure for track problems in the high speed railways due to the irregularly increasing dynamic wheel loads running over the speed range of 300 km/h. It has long been recognised that the track problems encountered on high speed railways are associated mainly with vertical dynamic loads which are related to the unsprung mass of vehicles and track irregularities. In addition to these parameters for the estimation of the dynamic wheel load variation, however, the dynamic characteristics of track structures are discussed in this paper with reference to mathematical modelling of the tracks and vehicle. From the results of the more detailed analyses, the effects of track stiffness and damping characteristics are considered to be significant for reducing the dynamic wheel loads. To make this point clear and appraise the overall performance of the track components, the theoretical analysis on the dynamic behavior of the tracks and wheel set impact tests on several track structures are performed. The experimental results from different track components are compared with each other. The track stiffness and damping characteristics are also presented quantatively.

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An Experimental Study on the Bending Capacities of Steel-Concrete Column under the Axial Load (축력을 받는 SC 기둥의 휨 성능에 관한 실험 연구)

  • Lee, Hwan Soo;Oh, Myoung Ho;Kim, Sang Dae
    • Journal of Korean Society of Steel Construction
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.87-96
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    • 2003
  • The Ssteel-Cconcrete (SC) Ccomposite Ccolumn is a new Ccomposite Ccolunin system, where hoops are welded between flanges of H-shapesd steel and concrete is filled in spaces between flanges are filled with con crete. Tests of SC composite columns were performed previously to determine their compression, bending and shear strength, and it showed good structural behavior. But sSince a column is usually subjected to an axial compression force, and bending it ihas needed to be bent forevaluate its structural behavior to be evaluated when its axial load and bending isaresimultaneously applied to the SC composite column. In this paper, tests were conducted to investigate the bending strength of SC composite columns subjected to axial compression force and bending moment. The parameters of the tests were concrete, a stud bolt, a hoop and a magnitude of axial compression. The test results showed that the maximum bending strength and ductility of an SC composite column were increased by 33-42% and 33-63%, respectively, comparinged to those of a bare steel column. Also, the results obtained bywith the Korean Limit State Design Code (LSD) presents a considerably safe side value compared to those of the Eurocode-4 and the Japan Code. However, wWhen the axial compression force is was increased, however, there awere considerable differences between the maximum strength obtained by the test and the LSD analysis. For this reason, it is recommended tothe use of the Eurocode-4 is recommended when calculates the strength of an SC composite column is being calculated, since the Eurocode-4 gives us a better estimation.

The Estimation of Ecological Flow Recommendations for Fish Habitat (하천의 어류 서식환경을 고려한 생태학적 추천유량 산정)

  • Sung, Young-Du;Park, Bong-Jin;Joo, Gea-Jae;Jung, Kwan-Sue
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.38 no.7 s.156
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    • pp.545-554
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    • 2005
  • The detailed interdisciplinary surveys were conducted on the pattern of habitat use of dominant fishes during the spawning and adult stage. The hydraulic parameters of the depth and velocity, discharge, substrate cover streams, and distribution of fish in the Yeonggang, WiCheon, HoeCheon, GeochangwiCheon, CheongdoCheon, DanjangCheon (the Nakdong River Basin) were measured. The Habitat Suitability Criteria was developed for the two fish species (Zacco Platypus and Zacco Temmincki) and life stages(spawning and adult), habitat conditions (depth, velocity and covet). The Physical Habitat Simulation of the Instream Flow Incremental Methodology was applied to calculate for optimal flow and the ecological flow recommendation was proposed by choosing the largest one in the optimal flow. The ecological flow recommendation was $5.0\;m^3/s{\sim}10.0\;m^3/s$ (e.g., $6.5\;m^3/s$ in the NaeseongCheon). Also, the ecological flow recommendations were compared with the existing ecological flow and flow duration analysis.

Estimation of Time-dependent Damage Paths of Armors of Rubble-mound Breakwaters using Stochastic Processes (추계학적 확률과정을 이용한 경사제 피복재의 시간에 따른 피해 경로 추정)

  • Lee, Cheol-Eung
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.246-257
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    • 2015
  • The progressive degradation paths of structures have quantitatively been tracked by using stochastic processes, such as Wiener process, gamma process and compound Poisson process, in order to consider both the sampling uncertainty due to the usual lack of damage data and the temporal uncertainty associated with the deterioration evolution. Several important features of stochastic processes which should carefully be considered in application of the stochastic processes to practical problems have been figured out through assessing cumulative damage and lifetime distribution as a function of time. Especially, the Wiener process and the gamma process have straightforwardly been applied to armors of rubble-mound breakwaters by the aid of a sample path method based on Melby's formula which can estimate cumulative damage levels of armors over time. The sample path method have been developed to calibrate the related-parameters required in the stochastic modelling of armors of rubble-mound breakwaters. From the analyses, it is found that cumulative damage levels of armors have surely been saturated with time. Also, the exponent of power law in time, that plays a significant role in predicting the cumulative damage levels over time, can easily be determined, which makes the stochastic models possible to track the cumulative damage levels of armors of rubble-mound breakwaters over time. Finally, failure probabilities with respect to various critical limits have been analyzed throughout its anticipated service life.

Estimation of Genetic Parameters for Gestation Length, Wean to First Service, Litter Size and Stillborn Piglets in a Closed Nucleus Swine Breeding Herd (특정 종돈집단의 임신기간, 이유후초종부일, 총산자수 및 사산에 대한 유전모수 추정)

  • Lee, Deukhwan;Son, Jihyun
    • Journal of Animal Science and Technology
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    • v.55 no.5
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    • pp.389-398
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    • 2013
  • This study was conducted to investigate the genetic relationships among four reproductive traits. Data for this study were 7616 records from 1910 Landrace (L) and 10,454 records from 2283 Yorkshire (Y) in a closed nucleus swine herd. Traits considered on this study were gestation length (GL), total number of piglets born (TNB), wean to first service (WFS), and number of stillborn per litter (NSB). Heritabilities and genetic correlations were estimated by using the Bayesian inferences via Gibbs sampling in a four trait linear-threshold repeatability animal mixed model by designating NSB as a categorical trait in the L and Y purebred populations. Effects on the statistical model were considered for parity, contemporary group as fixed and service sire, permanent environmental, animal additive genetic effects as random. Estimates of heritability were 0.21, 0.23, 0.16, and 0.09 for GL, WFS, TNB, and NSB in the L population and 0.35, 0.16, 0.14 and 0.10 for corresponding traits in the Y population, respectively. Genetic correlation for GL was -0.59 and -0.28 with TNB and -0.58 and -0.17 with NSB in the L and Y populations, respectively. The NSB was positively correlated with TNB in the L and Y populations in genetic and environmental aspects. Therefore, the NSB should be taken into account in selecting sows for improving prolificacy of dam line breeding swine stock.

Estimation of diesel fuel demand function using panel data (시도별 패널데이터를 이용한 경유제품 수요함수 추정)

  • Lim, Chansu
    • Journal of Energy Engineering
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.80-92
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    • 2017
  • This paper attempts to estimate the diesel fuel demand function in Korea using panel data panel data of 16 major cities or provinces which consist of diesel demands, diesel market prices and gross value added from the year 1998 to 2015. I apply panel GLS(generalized least square) model, fixed effect model, random effect model and dynamic panel model to estimating the parameters of the diesel fuel demand function. The results show that short-run price elasticities of the diesel fuel demand are estimated to be -0.2146(panel GLS), -0.2886(fixed effect), -0.2854(random effect), -0.1905(dynamic panel) respectively. And short-run income elasticities of the diesel fuel demand are estimated to be 0.7379(panel GLS), 0.4119(fixed effect), 0.7260(random effect), 0.4166(dynamic panel) respectively. The short-run price and income elasticities explain that demand for diesel fuel is price- and income-inelastic. The long-run price and income elasticities are estimated to be -0.4784, 1.0461 by dynamic panel model, which means that demand for diesel fuel is price-inelastic but income-elastic in the long run. In addition I apply dummy variable model to estimate the effect of 16 major cities or provinces on diesel demands. The results show that diesel demands is affected 10 regions on the basis of Seoul.

Estimation of Hydraulic Parameters from Slug, Single Well Pumping and Step-drawdown Tests (순간수위 변화시험, 단공양수시험 및 단계양수시험을 통한 수리상수 추정연구)

  • Jo, Yun-Ju;Lee, Jin-Yong;Jun, Seong-Chun;Cheon, Jeong-Yong;Kwon, Hyung-Pyo
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.203-212
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    • 2010
  • The aim in this study is used to develop the remediation technologies for contaminated ground water. Slug, single well pumping and step-drawdown tests have been used to obtain hydraulic parameter estimates in the field. Slug tests yield hydraulic conductivity values using the Bouwer and Rice and C-B-P analysis methods. The mean and median hydraulic conductivity values of Bouwer and Rice method are $4.48{\times}10^{-3}$ and $1.16{\times}10^{-3}cm/sec$, respectively. On the other hand, C-B-P method gave mean and median hydraulic conductivity values of $2.37{\times}10^{-3}$ and $7.09{\times}10^{-4}cm/sec$, respectively. These analyses show a trend for the Bouwer and Rice method to yield lower hydraulic conductivity values in low permeability zones of granite in the study area. Sing well pumping test data were calculated through type curve in GW7, GW12 and MW9 wells. It could be interpreted that the differences of hydraulic conductivity and transmissivity values between GW7 and GW12, MW9 is related with fault clays and fractures in the bedrock among the wells. Step-drawdown tests were carried out in the KDPW1 and KDPW2 wells. The hydraulic parameter of KDPW1 and KDPW2 showed very litter difference between the values. The study of hydraulic parameter estimates can be used to purify in contaminated groundwater.