• Title/Summary/Keyword: parameters estimation

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Estimation of city gas demand function using time series data (시계열 자료를 이용한 도시가스의 수요함수 추정)

  • Lee, Seung-Jae;Euh, Seung-Seob;Yoo, Seung-Hoon
    • Journal of Energy Engineering
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.370-375
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    • 2013
  • This paper attempts to estimate the city gas demand function in Korea over the period 1981-2012. As the city gas demand function provides us information on the pattern of consumer's city gas consumption, it can be usefully utilized in predicting the impact of policy variables such as city gas price and forecasting the demand for city gas. We apply lagged dependent variable model and ordinary least square method as a robust approach to estimating the parameters of the city gas demand function. The results show that short-run price and income elasticities of the city gas demand are estimated to be -0.522 and 0.874, respectively. They are statistically significant at the 1% level. The short-run price and income elasticities portray that demand for city gas is price- and income-inelastic. This implies that the city gas is indispensable goods to human-being's life, thus the city gas demand would not be promptly adjusted to responding to price and/or income change. However, long-run price and income elasticities reveal that the demand for city gas is price- and income-elastic in the long-run.

Estimation of Diagnostic Range for Measurement Tools, while BMD Testing to Health Examination in Transitional Ages (생애전환기 건강진단 골밀도 검사시 측정도구에 따른 진단범위의 유효성 평가)

  • Kim, Nam-Soo;Jung, Kyung-Sick;Kang, Eun-Jung;Oh, Jung-Eun;Lee, Byung-Kook
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.12 no.10
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    • pp.385-394
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    • 2012
  • The aim of this study was to determine the effectiveness of diagnostic range for BMD measurement tools(DEXA, QUS, and RA) to health examination in transitional ages. In standard T-score -2.5 of DEXA, cutoff value by RA is -1.675(sensitivity: 70.0%, specificity: 63.7%) and cutoff value by QUS is -1.733(sensitivity: 70.4, specificity: 59.5%), also T-score -3.0 of DEXA, cutoff value by RA is -2.325(sensitivity: 70.0%, specificity: 42.9%) and cutoff value by QUS is -2.323(sensitivity: 70.4, specificity: 56.8%). There was, however, no significant difference in standard DEXA(lumbar spine and femur) between RA and QUS by repeat measurement(precision), and correlation were without effect. ROC analysis showed that all methods are qualified for BMD measurement tools to health examination in transitional ages; however, the different sensitivities and specificities of the methods, as well as age and gender, calibration parameters for diagnostic tests have to be considered.

The Arch Type PV System Performance Evaluation of Multi Controlled Inverter for Improve the Efficiency (효율개선을 위한 다중제어 인버터방식의 아치형 PV System 성능 분석)

  • Lee, Mi-Yong;Park, Jeong-Min
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.13 no.11
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    • pp.5452-5457
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    • 2012
  • It is saving material cost and construction cost by replacing conventional building materials, and It has advantages for aesthetic value. In the Europe, the United States, Japan and other country research about BIPV is actively being carried out and marketability is also being infinity expanding. Arch type PV systems efficiency characteristics is different depending on PV array's directly connection, parallel connection and arches angle, but is a lack of analysis on this nowadays. When the arch type PV system design up, they consider about aesthetic value and they didn't consider about generation efficiency. In this paper, we try to improve the efficiency through optimization of arch type PV system and estimation of the efficiency parameters of the arch type PV system, such as latitude, longitude, temperature, insolation, arch angle and each kind loss from system organization. For improving Arched PV system efficiency, proposed multiple control inverter system, and using simulation tool of Arched PV system "Solar pro", flat-plate type and many arch type PV system configuration the driving characteristics were compared and analyzed.

Performance Improvement of Speaker Recognition by MCE-based Score Combination of Multiple Feature Parameters (MCE기반의 다중 특징 파라미터 스코어의 결합을 통한 화자인식 성능 향상)

  • Kang, Ji Hoon;Kim, Bo Ram;Kim, Kyu Young;Lee, Sang Hoon
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.21 no.6
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    • pp.679-686
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    • 2020
  • In this thesis, an enhanced method for the feature extraction of vocal source signals and score combination using an MCE-Based weight estimation of the score of multiple feature vectors are proposed for the performance improvement of speaker recognition systems. The proposed feature vector is composed of perceptual linear predictive cepstral coefficients, skewness, and kurtosis extracted with lowpass filtered glottal flow signals to eliminate the flat spectrum region, which is a meaningless information section. The proposed feature was used to improve the conventional speaker recognition system utilizing the mel-frequency cepstral coefficients and the perceptual linear predictive cepstral coefficients extracted with the speech signals and Gaussian mixture models. In addition, to increase the reliability of the estimated scores, instead of estimating the weight using the probability distribution of the convectional score, the scores evaluated by the conventional vocal tract, and the proposed feature are fused by the MCE-Based score combination method to find the optimal speaker. The experimental results showed that the proposed feature vectors contained valid information to recognize the speaker. In addition, when speaker recognition is performed by combining the MCE-based multiple feature parameter scores, the recognition system outperformed the conventional one, particularly in low Gaussian mixture cases.

Parameter Estimation of the Aerated Wetland for the Performance of the Polluted Stream Treatment (오염하천 정화를 위한 호기성 인공습지의 운영인자 평가)

  • Kim, Dul-Sun;Lee, Dong-Keun
    • Clean Technology
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.302-310
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    • 2019
  • A constructed wetland with the aerobic tank and anaerobic/anoxic tank connected in series was employed in order to treat highly polluted stream water. The aerobic tank was maintained aerobic with a continuous supply of air through the natural air draft system. Five pilot plants having different residence times were employed together to obtain parameters for the best performances of the wetland. BOD and COD removals at the aerobic tank followed the first order kinetics. COD removal rate constants were slightly lower than BOD. The temperature dependence of COD (θ = 1.0079) and BOD (θ = 1.0083) was almost the same, but the temperature dependence (θN) of T-N removal was 1.0189. The SS removal rate was as high as 98% and the removal efficiency showed a tendency to increase with increasing hydraulic loading rate (Q/A). The main mechanism of BOD and COD removal at the anaerobic/anoxic tank was entirely different from that of the aerobic tank. BOD and COD were supplied as the carbon source for biological denitrification. T-P was believed to be removed though the cation exchange between orthophosphate and gravels within the anaerobic and anoxic tanks. The wetland could successfully be operated without being blocked by the filtered solid which subsequently decomposed at an extremely fast rate.

An Empirical Study on Differential factors of Accounting Information (회계정보의 차별적 요인에 관한 실증연구)

  • Oh Sung-Geun;Kim Hyun-Ki
    • Management & Information Systems Review
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    • v.12
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    • pp.137-160
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    • 2003
  • The association between accounting earnings and the stock price of an entity is the subject that has been most heavily researched during the past 25 years in accounting literature. Researcher's common finding is that there are positive relationships between accounting earnings and stock prices. However, the explanatory power of accounting earnings which was measured by $R^2$ of regression functions used was rather low. To be connected with these low results, The prior studies propose that there will be additional information, errors in variables. This study investigates empirically determinants of earnings response coefficients(ERCs), which measure the correlation between earnings and stock prices, using earnings level / change, as the dependent variable in the return/earnings regression. Specifically, the thesis tests whether the factors such as earnings persistence, growth, systematic risk, image, information asymmetry and firm size. specially, the determinable variables of ERC are explained in detail. The image / information asymmetry variables are selected to be connected with additional information stand point, The debt / growth variables are selected to be connected with errors in variables. In this study, The sample of firms, listed in Korean Stock Exchange was drawn from the KIS-DATA and was required to meet the following criteria: (1) Annual accounting earnings were available over the 1986-1999 period on the KIS-FAS to allow computation of variables parameter; (2) sufficient return data for estimation of market model parameters were available on the KIS-SMAT month returns: (3) each firm had a fiscal year ending in December throughout the study period. Implementation of these criteria yielded a sample of 1,141 firm-year observation over the 10-year(1990-1999) period. A conventional regression specification would use stock returns(abnormal returns) as a dependent variable and accounting earnings(unexpected earnings) changes interacted with other factors as independent variables. In this study, I examined the relation between other factors and the RRC by using reverse regression. For an empirical test, eight hypotheses(including six lower-hypotheses) were tested. The results of the performed empirical analysis can be summarized as follows; The first, The relationship between persistence of earnings and ERC have significance of each by itself, this result accord with one of the prior studies. The second, The relationship between growth and ERC have not significance. The third, The relationship between image and ERC have significance of each by itself, but a forecast code doesn't present. This fact shows that image cost does not effect on market management share, is used to prevent market occupancy decrease. The fourth, The relationship between information asymmetry variable and ERC have significance of each by. The fifth, The relationship between systematic risk$(\beta)$ and ERC have not significance. The sixth, The relationship between debt ratio and ERC have significance of each by itself, but a forecast code doesn't present. This fact is judged that it is due to the effect of financial leverage effect and a tendency of interest.

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Inverse Estimation of Geoacoustic Parameters in Shallow Water Using tight Bulb Sound Source (천해환경에서 전구음원을 이용한 지음향인자의 역추정)

  • 한주영;이성욱;나정열;김성일
    • The Journal of the Acoustical Society of Korea
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.8-16
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    • 2004
  • An inversion method is presented for the determination of the compressional wave speed, compressional wave attenuation, thickness of the sediment layer and density as a function of depth for a horizontally stratified ocean bottom. An experiment for estimating those properties was conducted in the shallow water of South Sea in Korea. In the experiment, a light bulb implosion and the propagating sound were measured using a VLA (vertical line array). As a method for estimating the geoacoustic properties, a coherent broadband matched field processing combined with Genetic Algorithm was employed. When a time-dependent signal is very short, the Fourier transform results are not accurate, since the frequency components are not locatable in time and the windowed Fourier transform is limited by the length of the window. However, it is possible to do this using the wavelet transform a transform that yields a time-frequency representation of a signal. In this study, this transform is used to identify and extract the acoustic components from multipath time series. The inversion is formulated as an optimization problem which maximizes the cost function defined as a normalized correlation between the measured and modeled signals in the wavelet transform coefficient vector. The experiments and procedures for deploying the light bulbs and the coherent broadband inversion method are described, and the estimated geoacoustic profile in the vicinity of the VLA site is presented.

Forecasting the Precipitation of the Next Day Using Deep Learning (딥러닝 기법을 이용한 내일강수 예측)

  • Ha, Ji-Hun;Lee, Yong Hee;Kim, Yong-Hyuk
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.93-98
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    • 2016
  • For accurate precipitation forecasts the choice of weather factors and prediction method is very important. Recently, machine learning has been widely used for forecasting precipitation, and artificial neural network, one of machine learning techniques, showed good performance. In this paper, we suggest a new method for forecasting precipitation using DBN, one of deep learning techniques. DBN has an advantage that initial weights are set by unsupervised learning, so this compensates for the defects of artificial neural networks. We used past precipitation, temperature, and the parameters of the sun and moon's motion as features for forecasting precipitation. The dataset consists of observation data which had been measured for 40 years from AWS in Seoul. Experiments were based on 8-fold cross validation. As a result of estimation, we got probabilities of test dataset, so threshold was used for the decision of precipitation. CSI and Bias were used for indicating the precision of precipitation. Our experimental results showed that DBN performed better than MLP.

Estimation of Shear Strength and Rheological Parameters of Fine-Grained Soil Using Direct Shear Test (직접전단실험을 이용한 세립토의 전단강도 및 유변학적 정수 산정)

  • Park, Geun-Woo;Hong, Won-Taek;Lee, Jong-Sub
    • Journal of the Korean GEO-environmental Society
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.29-37
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    • 2017
  • As the behavior of the debris flow due to the torrential rains in mountain is affected by shear strength and rheological properties of the fine fraction in the ground, the evaluation of both properties is necessary to estimate the behavior of the debris flow. The objective of this study is to evaluate the shear strength and rheological properties using the direct shear apparatus. The direct shear tests are conducted for two kinds of fine-grained soil specimens, which are in dry state and liquid limit state. From the direct shear tests, shear strengths are measured according to the normal stresses applied on the specimens to evaluate the cohesion and internal friction angle. In addition, reversal shear tests are performed for the fine-grained soil specimens in liquid limit state according to the shear rate to evaluate the residual shear strength. The results of direct shear tests show that the specimen at the liquid limit state has lower internal friction angle and higher cohesion compared to the dry stated, and the residual friction angle and cohesion at the residual state are lower than those at the peak state. In the result of reversal shear test, the residual shear strength is directly proportional to the shear rate and viscosity is calculated as $73.60Pa{\cdot}s$. This study demonstrates that the direct shear apparatus can be effectively used for the evaluation of the shear strength and rheological properties of the fine-grained soils related with the debris flow.

Estimation of the net energy requirement for maintenance in broilers

  • Liu, Wei;Lin, Chang Hua;Wu, Zheng Ke;Liu, Guo Hua;Yan, Hai Jie;Yang, Hua Ming;Cai, Hui Yi
    • Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
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    • v.30 no.6
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    • pp.849-856
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    • 2017
  • Objective: The net energy requirement for the maintenance ($NE_m$) of broilers was determined using regression models by the indirect calorimetry method (ICM) or the comparative slaughter method (CSM). Methods: A $2{\times}4$ factorial arrangement of treatments including the evaluation method (ICM or CSM) and feed intake (25%, 50%, 75%, or 100% of ad libitum recommended) was employed in this experiment. In the ICM, 96 male Arbor Acres (AA) birds aged d 15 were used with 4 birds per replicate and 6 replicates in each treatment. In the CSM, 116 male AA birds aged d 15 were used. Among these 116 birds, 20 were selected as for initial data and 96 were assigned to 4 treatments with 6 replicate cages and 4 birds each. The linear regression between retained energy (RE) and metabolizable energy intake (MEI) or the logarithmic regression between heat production (HP) and MEI were used to calculate the metabolizable or net energy requirement for maintenance ($ME_m$) or $NE_m$, respectively. Results: The evaluation method did not detect any differences in the metabolizable energy (ME), net energy (NE), and NE:ME of diet, and in the MEI, HP, and RE of broilers. The MEI, HP, and RE of broilers decreased (p<0.01) as the feed intake decreased. No evaluation method${\times}$feed intake interaction was observed on these parameters. The $ME_m$ and $NE_m$ estimated from the linear relationship were 594 and 386 kJ/kg of body weight $(BW)^{0.75}/d$ in the ICM, and 618 and 404 kJ/kg of $BW^{0.75}/d$ in the CSM, respectively. The $ME_m$ and $NE_m$ estimated by logarithmic regression were 607 and 448 kJ/kg of $BW^{0.75}/d$ in the ICM, and were 619 and 462 kJ/kg of $BW^{0.75}/d$ in the CSM, respectively. Conclusion: The NEm values obtained in this study provide references for estimating the NE values of broiler diets.