• Title/Summary/Keyword: parameters estimation

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Effects of Physical Parameters on Water Quality in Agricultural Reservoirs (농업용 저수지의 물리적 인자가 수질에 미치는 영향)

  • Jeon, Ji-Hong;Ham, Jong-Hwa;Kim, Ho-Il;Hwang, Soon-Jin;Yoon, Chun-Gyeong
    • Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
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    • v.35 no.1 s.97
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    • pp.28-35
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    • 2002
  • The effect of physical parameters on water quality was analyzed using monitoring data of 193 agricultural reservoirs. The retention time of reservoirs ($t_d$) ranged between 10 and 140 days, and the ratio of drainage area (DA) to reservoir surface area (SA) was between 10 and 120. Both ratios of DA/SA and total area (TA)/ reservoir storage (ST) in Korean agricultural reservoirs were relatively greater than those in natural lakes in other countries. As retention time was plotted against DA/SA ratio, it was shorter in Korean reservoirs than natural lakes. The semi-logarithmic relationship between TA/SA and t>$t_d$ was $t_d\;=\;42.21(TA/ST)^{-1}$ (n = 50, $R^2\;=\;0.89$). While areal loading of total phosphorus (TP) was below $4\;gTP{\cdot}m^{-2}{\cdot}yr^{-1}$ in general, it exceeded $10\;gTP{\cdot}m^{-2}{\cdot}yr^{-1}$ in reservoirs where DA/SA ratio was greater than 100, which implies that areal loading of TP increases as DA/SA ratio increases. Chl-a concentration was positively related with the mean depth of reservoir, implying the higher Chl-a concentration with deeper the mean depth. Therefore, the deeper reservoir might be advantageous in water quality management perspective if other morphological conditions are similar. The empirical regression equation using physical parameters was also suggested in the estimation of TP concentration in the reservoirs. Combined information presented in this paper might be applicable to the water quality management in agricultural reservoirs.

Comparison of Disk Tension Infiltrometer and van Genuchten-Mualem Model on Estimation of Unsaturated Hydraulic Conductivity (장력 침투계(Disk Tension Infiltrometer)와 van Genuchten-Mualem 모형 적용에 따른 불포화수리 전도도의 비교 해석)

  • Hur, Seung-Oh;Jung, Kang-Ho;Park, Chan-Won;Ha, Sang-Keun;Kim, Geong-Gyu
    • Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
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    • v.39 no.5
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    • pp.259-267
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    • 2006
  • Hydraulic conductivity is the rate of water flux on hydraulic gradient. The van Genuchten Mualem (VGM) model is frequently used for describing unsaturated state of soils, that is composed with the function of soil water potential and soil water content and requests various parameters. This study is to get the value of VGM parameters used Rosetta computer program based on neural network analysis method and to calculate VGM parameters. VGM parameters included Ko(effective saturated hydraulic conductivity), ${\theta}r$(residual soil water content), ${\theta}s$(saturated soil water content), L, n and m. The unsaturated hydraulic conductivity at 10 kPa was calculated by using Rosetta program. Unsaturated hydraulic conductivities of 17 soil series at 1, 3, 5, 7 kPa were also obtained by applying saturated hydraulic conductivity by disk tension infiltrometer based on Gardner and Wooding's equation. Water flow at the water potential of 3 kPa was very low except Namgye, Hagog, Baegsan, Sangju, Seogcheon, Yesan soil series. Unsaturated hydraulic conductivity at 1 kPa showed the highest value for Samgag soil series and was in order of Yesan, Hwabong, Hagog and Baegsan soil series. Those of Gacheon, Seocheon and Ugog soil series were very low. When the value by VGM was compared with the value by disc tension infiltrometer, there was a tendency with exponential function to soils without gravel but there was no tendency to soils including gravel. Conclusively, it would be limited that VGM model for unsaturated hydraulic conductivity analysis applies to Korean agricultural land including gravel and having steep slope, shallow soil depth.

Prediction of Expected Residual Useful Life of Rubble-Mound Breakwaters Using Stochastic Gamma Process (추계학적 감마 확률과정을 이용한 경사제의 기대 잔류유효수명 예측)

  • Lee, Cheol-Eung
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.31 no.3
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    • pp.158-169
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    • 2019
  • A probabilistic model that can predict the residual useful lifetime of structure is formulated by using the gamma process which is one of the stochastic processes. The formulated stochastic model can take into account both the sampling uncertainty associated with damages measured up to now and the temporal uncertainty of cumulative damage over time. A method estimating several parameters of stochastic model is additionally proposed by introducing of the least square method and the method of moments, so that the age of a structure, the operational environment, and the evolution of damage with time can be considered. Some features related to the residual useful lifetime are firstly investigated into through the sensitivity analysis on parameters under a simple setting of single damage data measured at the current age. The stochastic model are then applied to the rubble-mound breakwater straightforwardly. The parameters of gamma process can be estimated for several experimental data on the damage processes of armor rocks of rubble-mound breakwater. The expected damage levels over time, which are numerically simulated with the estimated parameters, are in very good agreement with those from the flume testing. It has been found from various numerical calculations that the probabilities exceeding the failure limit are converged to the constraint that the model must be satisfied after lasting for a long time from now. Meanwhile, the expected residual useful lifetimes evaluated from the failure probabilities are seen to be different with respect to the behavior of damage history. As the coefficient of variation of cumulative damage is becoming large, in particular, it has been shown that the expected residual useful lifetimes have significant discrepancies from those of the deterministic regression model. This is mainly due to the effect of sampling and temporal uncertainties associated with damage, by which the first time to failure tends to be widely distributed. Therefore, the stochastic model presented in this paper for predicting the residual useful lifetime of structure can properly implement the probabilistic assessment on current damage state of structure as well as take account of the temporal uncertainty of future cumulative damage.

Determinants of Consumer Preference by type of Accommodation: Two Step Cluster Analysis (이단계 군집분석에 의한 농촌관광 편의시설 유형별 소비자 선호 결정요인)

  • Park, Duk-Byeong;Yoon, Yoo-Shik;Lee, Min-Soo
    • Journal of Global Scholars of Marketing Science
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.1-19
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    • 2007
  • 1. Purpose Rural tourism is made by individuals with different characteristics, needs and wants. It is important to have information on the characteristics and preferences of the consumers of the different types of existing rural accommodation. The stud aims to identify the determinants of consumer preference by type of accommodations. 2. Methodology 2.1 Sample Data were collected from 1000 people by telephone survey with three-stage stratified random sampling in seven metropolitan areas in Korea. Respondents were chosen by sampling internal on telephone book published in 2006. We surveyed from four to ten-thirty 0'clock afternoon so as to systematic sampling considering respondents' life cycle. 2.2 Two-step cluster Analysis Our study is accomplished through the use of a two-step cluster method to classify the accommodation in a reduced number of groups, so that each group constitutes a type. This method had been suggested as appropriate in clustering large data sets with mixed attributes. The method is based on a distance measure that enables data with both continuous and categorical attributes to be clustered. This is derived from a probabilistic model in which the distance between two clusters in equivalent to the decrease in log-likelihood function as a result of merging. 2.3 Multinomial Logit Analysis The estimation of a Multionmial Logit model determines the characteristics of tourist who is most likely to opt for each type of accommodation. The Multinomial Logit model constitutes an appropriate framework to explore and explain choice process where the choice set consists of more than two alternatives. Due to its ease and quick estimation of parameters, the Multinomial Logit model has been used for many empirical studies of choice in tourism. 3. Findings The auto-clustering algorithm indicated that a five-cluster solution was the best model, because it minimized the BIC value and the change in them between adjacent numbers of clusters. The accommodation establishments can be classified into five types: Traditional House, Typical Farmhouse, Farmstay house for group Tour, Log Cabin for Family, and Log Cabin for Individuals. Group 1 (Traditional House) includes mainly the large accommodation establishments, i.e. those with ondoll style room providing meals and one shower room on family tourist, of original construction style house. Group 2 (Typical Farmhouse) encompasses accommodation establishments of Ondoll rooms and each bathroom providing meals. It includes, in other words, the tourist accommodations Known as "rural houses." Group 3 (Farmstay House for Group) has accommodation establishments of Ondoll rooms not providing meals and self cooking facilities, large room size over five persons. Group 4 (Log Cabin for Family) includes mainly the popular accommodation establishments, i.e. those with Ondoll style room with on shower room on family tourist, of western styled log house. While the accommodations in this group are not defined as regards type of construction, the group does include all the original Korean style construction, Finally, group 5 (Log Cabin for Individuals)includes those accommodations that are bedroom western styled wooden house with each bathroom. First Multinomial Logit model is estimated including all the explicative variables considered and taking accommodation group 2 as base alternative. The results show that the variables and the estimated values of the parameters for the model giving the probability of each of the five different types of accommodation available in rural tourism village in Korea, according to the socio-economic and trip related characteristics of the individuals. An initial observation of the analysis reveals that none of variables income, the number of journey, distance, and residential style of house is explicative in the choice of rural accommodation. The age and accompany variables are significant for accommodation establishment of group 1. The education and rural residential experience variables are significant for accommodation establishment of groups 4 and 5. The expenditure and marital status variables are significant for accommodation establishment of group 4. The gender and occupation variable are significant for accommodation establishment of group 3. The loyalty variable is significant for accommodation establishment of groups 3 and 4. The study indicates that significant differences exist among the individuals who choose each type of accommodation at a destination. From this investigation is evident that several profiles of tourists can be attracted by a rural destination according to the types of existing accommodations at this destination. Besides, the tourist profiles may be used as the basis for investment policy and promotion for each type of accommodation, making use in each case of the variables that indicate a greater likelihood of influencing the tourist choice of accommodation.

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Comparison of Algorithms for Generating Parametric Image of Cerebral Blood Flow Using ${H_2}^{15}O$ PET Positron Emission Tomography (${H_2}^{15}O$ PET을 이용한 뇌혈류 파라메트릭 영상 구성을 위한 알고리즘 비교)

  • Lee, Jae-Sung;Lee, Dong-Soo;Park, Kwang-Suk;Chung, June-Key;Lee, Myung-Chul
    • The Korean Journal of Nuclear Medicine
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    • v.37 no.5
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    • pp.288-300
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    • 2003
  • Purpose: To obtain regional blood flow and tissue-blood partition coefficient with time-activity curves from ${H_2}^{15}O$ PET, fitting of some parameters in the Kety model is conventionally accomplished by nonlinear least squares (NLS) analysis. However, NLS requires considerable compuation time then is impractical for pixel-by-pixel analysis to generate parametric images of these parameters. In this study, we investigated several fast parameter estimation methods for the parametric image generation and compared their statistical reliability and computational efficiency. Materials and Methods: These methods included linear least squres (LLS), linear weighted least squares (LWLS), linear generalized least squares (GLS), linear generalized weighted least squares (GWLS), weighted Integration (WI), and model-based clustering method (CAKS). ${H_2}^{15}O$ dynamic brain PET with Poisson noise component was simulated using numerical Zubal brain phantom. Error and bias in the estimation of rCBF and partition coefficient, and computation time in various noise environments was estimated and compared. In audition, parametric images from ${H_2}^{15}O$ dynamic brain PET data peformed on 16 healthy volunteers under various physiological conditions was compared to examine the utility of these methods for real human data. Results: These fast algorithms produced parametric images with similar image qualify and statistical reliability. When CAKS and LLS methods were used combinedly, computation time was significantly reduced and less than 30 seconds for $128{\times}128{\times}46$ images on Pentium III processor. Conclusion: Parametric images of rCBF and partition coefficient with good statistical properties can be generated with short computation time which is acceptable in clinical situation.

Estimation of Environmental Effect and Genetic Parameter on Reproduction Traits for On-farm Test Records (농장검정돈의 번식형질에 미치는 환경효과 및 유전모수의 추정)

  • Jung, D.J.;Kim, B.W.;Roh, S.H.;Kim, H.S.;Moon, W.K.;Kim, H.Y.;Jang, H.G.;Choi, L.S.;Jeon, J.T.;Lee, J.G.
    • Journal of Animal Science and Technology
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    • v.50 no.1
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    • pp.33-44
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    • 2008
  • The purpose of this study was to estimate the genetic parameters and trend of Landrace and Yorkshire pigs, which were raised on private farms from 1999 to 2005 and tested for their reproductive performance by the Korea Animal Improvement Association. Prior to analysis, records without pedigree or having value with larger than±3×standard deviation for the Total number of born were excluded. The effects of breed and environmental factors were estimated with least square method(Harvey, 1979), and estimation of breeding values and genetic parameters were performed on the data of 1’st litter only with GIBBSF90(Misztal, 2001) which was programmed according to Gibbs Sampling method based on Bayesian Inference by Gianola and Fernando(1986), Jensen(1994) and others. Gibbs sampling was performed 50,000 times for each parameter, and the first 5000 samples were regarded as those in burn-in period and thus, excluded for post hoc analysis. Total number of born and total number of accident were statistically significant(p<0.01) for the breed, farrowing year, farrowing season and parity effects, and the number born alive at birth was statistically significantp<(0.01) for the breed, farrowing year, farrowing season and parity effects. No particular trend was observed in the genetic and phenotypic improvement of the total number of born and number born alive at birth before 2001, when the piglet registration system started, but the tendencies of increasing for the total number of born and number born alive and decreasing for the total number of accident were observed since 2001. Somewhat higher heritability estimates of our study seems to be attributed to the situations that first parity records with poor farrowing performances were used in the analyses and it was impossible to obtain accurate reproductive performance due to the absence of criteria for record keeping at the level of individual farms.

Development of Growth Models as Affected by Cultivation Season and Transplanting Date and Estimation of Prediction Yield in Kimchi Cabbage (재배시기, 정식일에 따른 배추의 생육 모델 개발 및 생산량 예측 평가)

  • Lee, Jin Hyoung;Lee, Hee Ju;Kim, Sung Kyeom;Lee, Sang Gyu;Lee, Hee Su;Choi, Chang Sun
    • Journal of Bio-Environment Control
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.235-241
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    • 2017
  • This study was carried out to estimate growth characteristics of Kimchi cabbage cultivated in two different growing seasons and three transplanting dates in the greenhouses, and to create a predicting model for the production of Kimchi cabbage based on the growth parameters and climatic elements. Kimchi cabbages were transplanted three times at intervals of two weeks in spring and autumn growing seasons. Sigmoidal models for the estimation of fresh weight (Fw) was designed with days after transplanting, which were Fw=4451.5/[1+exp{-(DAT-34.1)/3.6}]($R^2=0.992$) and Fw=7182.0/[1+exp{-(DAT-53.8)/11.6}] ($R^2=0.979$), respectively. The relationship between fresh weight of Kimchi cabbage and growing degree days (GDD) was highly correlated, and the regression model represented by Fw=4451.5/[1+exp{-(GDD-34.1)/3.6}] ($R^2=0.992$) in spring growing season. The yield of Kimchi cabbage under spring and autumn growing season were estimated 11348.3kg/10a and 15128.2kg/10a, respectively, which were much different than outdoor culture each growing season, while greenhouse cultivation have shown similar results. To estimate the efficacy of prediction yield in Kimchi cabbage, we will need to supplement a predicting model, which was based on the parameters and climatic elements by the field cultivation.

Study on the Estimation of Selection Index in Broiler Breeder I. Estimation of Genetic Parameters in Broiler (육용종계의 선발지수 추정에 관한 연구 I. 육용종계 부계통과 모계통의 유전적 모교추정)

  • 김기경;손시환;오봉국
    • Korean Journal of Poultry Science
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    • v.11 no.2
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    • pp.86-92
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    • 1984
  • Present study was carried out to estimate phenotypic and genetic parameters influencing body weight (BW) at 4 weeks of age egg breadth (EB), egg length(EL), egg shape index (SI) and egg weight (EW) at 32 weeks of age and egg numbers (EN) up to 38 weeks of age in broiler male and female lines. The data were collected from closed White Plymouth Rock (female line; G) and Cornish (male line; C) flocks involving 1193 pullets from 211 dams and 48 sires in 1982. The results obtained are summarized as follow: 1. General performance for various trails of lines C and G. The means and standard deviations of BW, EB, EL, SI, EW and EN were 668.34${\pm}$47.18, 4.23${\pm}$0,11, 5.49 ${\pm}$0.19, 77.06${\pm}$2.98, 55.73${\pm}$3.54 and 59.72${\pm}$13.39 in line C, respectively and 487.89${\pm}$ 41.43, 4.22${\pm}$0.11, 5.51${\pm}$0.19, 76.72${\pm}$3.20, 55.43${\pm}$3.26 and 76.93${\pm}$12.17 in line G, respectively. 2. Heritability Heritabilities were estimated from sire, dam and combined components. Estimates for BW, EB, EL, SI, EW and EN from combined components were 0.30, 0.29, 0,40, 0.22, 0.45 and 0.60 in line C, respectively and 0.33, 0.23, 0.28, 0.13, 0.49 and. 0.33 in line G, respectively. 3. Correlation Genetic and phenotypic correlations showed similar trend in line C and G. Genetic correlations, estimated EW with EB and EL, were high and positive (line C; 0.99, 0.75, respectively and line G; 0.94, 0.82, respectively), also correlation of EB with EL was 0.58 (both lines; 0.58). High and negative genetic correlations were shown between SI and EL in line C and G (-0.70, -0.65, respectively). Genetic correlations between SI and EW were relatively low and negative in line C and G (-0.11, -0.19, respectively) and between SI and EN were relatively low and positive in line C and G (0.25, 0.17, respectively). Between other traits, low genetic correlations were shown in both lines, High and positive correlation was estimated between hatchability and egg shape index and polynomial regression of egg shape index on hatchability was estimated; Y=-216.77+7.6216X-0.0146939X$^2$.

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APPROXIMATE ESTIMATION OF RECRUITMENT IN FISH POPULATION UTILIZING STOCK DENSITY AND CATCH (밀도지수와 어획량으로서 수산자원의 가입량을 근사적으로 추정하는 방법)

  • KIM Kee Ju
    • Korean Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences
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    • v.8 no.2
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    • pp.47-60
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    • 1975
  • For the calculation of population parameter and estimation of recruitment of a fish population, an application of multiple regression method was used with some statistical inferences. Then, the differences between the calculated values and the true parameters were discussed. In addition, this method criticized by applying it to the statistical data of a population of bigeye tuna, Thunnus obesus of the Indian Ocean. The method was also applied to the available data of a population of Pacific saury, Cololabis saira, to estimate its recuitments. A stock at t year and t+1 year is, $N_{0,\;t+1}=N_{0,\;t}(1-m_t)-C_t+R_{t+1}$ where $N_0$ is the initial number of fish in a given year; C, number o: fish caught; R, number of recruitment; and M, rate of natural mortality. The foregoing equation is $$\phi_{t+1}=\frac{(1-\varrho^{-z}{t+1})Z_t}{(1-\varrho^{-z}t)Z_{t+1}}-\frac{1-\varrho^{-z}t+1}{Z_{t+1}}\phi_t-a'\frac{1-\varrho^{-z}t+1}{Z_{t+1}}C_t+a'\frac{1-\varrho^{-z}t+1}{Z_{t+1}}R_{t+1}......(1)$$ where $\phi$ is CPUE; a', CPUE $(\phi)$ to average stock $(\bar{N})$ in number; Z, total mortality coefficient; and M, natural mortality coefficient. In the equation (1) , the term $(1-\varrho^{-z}t+1)/Z_{t+1}$s almost constant to the variation of effort (X) there fore coefficients $\phi$ and $C_t$, can be calculated, when R is a constant, by applying the method of multiple regression, where $\phi_{t+1}$ is a dependent variable; $\phi_t$ and $C_t$ are independent variables. The values of Mand a' are calculated from the coefficients of $\phi_t$ and $C_t$; and total mortality coefficient (Z), where Z is a'X+M. By substituting M, a', $Z_t$, and $Z_{t+1}$ to the equation (1) recruitment $(R_{t+1})$ can be calculated. In this precess $\phi$ can be substituted by index of stock in number (N'). This operational procedures of the method of multiple regression can be applicable to the data which satisfy the above assumptions, even though the data were collected from any chosen year with similar recruitments, though it were not collected from the consecutive years. Under the condition of varying effort the data with such variation can be treated effectively by this method. The calculated values of M and a' include some deviation from the population parameters. Therefore, the estimated recruitment (R) is a relative value instead of all absolute one. This method of multiple regression is also applicable to the stock density and yield in weight instead of in number. For the data of the bigeye tuna of the Indian Ocean, the values of estimated recruitment (R) calculated from the parameter which is obtained by the present multiple regression method is proportional with an identical fluctuation pattern to the values of those derived from the parameters M and a', which were calculated by Suda (1970) for the same data. Estimated recruitments of Pacific saury of the eastern coast of Korea were calculated by the present multiple regression method. Not only spring recruitment $(1965\~1974)$ but also fall recruitment $(1964\~1973)$ was found to fluctuate in accordance with the fluctuations of stock densities (CPUE) of the same spring and fall, respectively.

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Estimation of Temporal Surface Air Temperature under Nocturnal Inversion Conditions (야간 역전조건 하의 지표기온 경시변화 추정)

  • Kim, Soo-ock
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.75-85
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    • 2017
  • A method to estimate hourly temperature profiles on calm and clear nights was developed based on temporal changes of inversion height and strength. A meteorological temperature profiler (Model MTP5H, Kipp and Zonen) was installed on the rooftop of the Highland Agriculture Research Institute, located in Daegwallyeong-myeon, Pyeongchang-gun, Gangwon-do. The hourly vertical distribution of air temperature was measured up to 600 m at intervals of 50 m from May 2007 to March 2008. Temperature and relative humidity data loggers (HOBO U23 Pro v2, Onset Computer Corporation, USA) were installed in the Jungdae-ri Valley, located between Gurye-gun, Jeollanam-do and Gwangyang-si, Jeollanam-do. These loggers were used to archive measurements of weather data 1.5 m above the surface from October 3, 2014, to November 23, 2015. The inversion strength was determined using the difference between the temperature at the inversion height, which is the highest temperature in the profile, and the temperature at 100 m from the surface. Empirical equations for the changes of inversion height and strength were derived to express the development of temperature inversion on calm and clear nights. To estimate air temperature near the ground on a slope exposed to crops, the equation's parameters were modified using temperature distribution of the mountain slope obtained from the data loggers. Estimated hourly temperatures using the method were compared with observed temperatures at 19 weather sites located within three watersheds in the southern Jiri-mountain in 2015. The mean error (ME) and root mean square error (RMSE) of the hourly temperatures were $-0.69^{\circ}C$ and $1.61^{\circ}C$, respectively. Hourly temperatures were often underestimated from 2000 to 0100 LST the next day. When temperatures were estimated at 0600 LST using the existing model, ME and RMSE were $-0.86^{\circ}C$ and $1.72^{\circ}C$, respectively. The method proposed in this study resulted in a smaller error, e.g., ME of $-0.12^{\circ}C$ and RMSE of $1.34^{\circ}C$. The method could be improved further taking into account various weather conditions, which could reduce the estimation error.