• Title/Summary/Keyword: parameter sensitivity

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Real-Time Flood Forecasting Using Rainfall-Runoff Model(I) : Theory and Modeling (강우-유출모형을 이용한 실시간 홍수예측(I) : 이론과 모형화)

  • 정동국;이길성
    • Water for future
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.89-99
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    • 1994
  • Flood forecasting in Korea has been based on the off-line parameter estimation method. But recent flood forecasting studies explore on-line recursive parameter estimation algorithms. In this study, a simultaneous adaptive estimation of system states and parameters for rainfall-runoff model is investigated for on-line real-time flood forecasting and parameter estimation. The proposed flood routing system is composed of Flood forecasting in Korea has been based on the off-line parameter estimation method. But recent flood forecasting studies explore on-line recursive parameter estimation algorithms. In this study, a simultaneous adaptive estimation of system states and parameters for rainfall-runoff model is investigated for on-line real-time flood forecasting and parameter estimation. The proposed flood routing system is composed of ø-index in the assessment of effective rainfall and the cascade of nonlinear reservoirs accounting for translation effect in flood routing. To combine the flood routing model with a parameter estimation model, system states and parameters are treated with the extended state-space formulation. Generalized least squares and maximum a posterior estimation algorithms are comparatively examined as estimation techniques for the state-space model. The sensitivity analysis is to investigate the identifiability of the parameters. The index of sensitivity used in this study is the covariance matrix of the estimated parameters.-index in the assessment of effective rainfall and the cascade of nonlinear reservoirs accounting for translation effect in flood routing. To combine the flood routing model with a parameter estimation model, system states and parameters are treated with the extended state-space formulation. Generalized least squares and maximum a posterior estimation algorithms are comparatively examined as estimation techniques for the state-space model. The sensitivity analysis is to investigate the identifiability of the parameters. The index of sensitivity used in this study is the covariance matrix of the estimated parameters.

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Sensitivity Analysis of Hydrogeologic Parameters by Groundwater Table Fluctuation Model in Jeju Island (지하수위 변동 해석모델을 이용한 제주지역의 수리지질 매개변수 민감도 분석)

  • Kim, Nam Won;Kim, Youn Jung;Chung, Il-Moon
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.34 no.5
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    • pp.1409-1420
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    • 2014
  • In this work, we have carried out a sensitivity analysis of hydrogeologic parameters such as reaction factor and drainable pore space in groundwater table fluctuation model and have found characteristics of parameter distribution according to the altitude. We found that drainable pore space which is hydrogeologic parameter of aquifer didn't show any trend with altitude while reaction factor which is groundwater flow characteristic showed clear trend with altitude. To find a sensitivity of parameters, we compared RMSE of estimated groundwater recharges by using the mean value and linear relationship of parameters. As results, the linear equation derived for entire watersheds could be applied to estimate parameters for ungauged watershed. Furthermore, the features of parameter distribution can be used to predict hydrogeologic parameter in ungauged watersheds and it is expected that those features could be used for a basic data for groundwater modeling.

Analysis of Fuel Economy Sensitivity for Parallel Hybrid Bus according to Variation of Simulation Input Parameter (병렬형 하이브리드 버스의 시뮬레이션 입력 매개변수 변화에 따른 연비 민감도 분석)

  • Choi, Jongdae;Jeong, Jongryeol;Lee, Daeheung;Shin, Changwoo;Park, Yeong-Il;Lim, Wonsik;Cha, Suk Won
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Automotive Engineers
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    • v.21 no.6
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    • pp.92-99
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    • 2013
  • High oil price and global warming problem are being continued all over the world. For this reason, fuel economy and emission of greenhouse gas are regulated by law in many countries. Therefore many companies are researching and producing hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) which substitute conventional internal combustion engine vehicle. However, these researches and productions are restricted to mainly passenger cars. Because of cost and physical problems, commercial vehicles are difficult to evaluate fuel economy. So simulations are important and it is necessary to know how sensitive parameters that enter into simulation affect. In this paper, forward simulations using AVL Cruise were conducted for analysis of fuel economy for parallel hybrid bus and were repeated by changing each parameter. Based on these results, root mean square errors (RMSE) are calculated for analysis of fuel economy sensitivity. The number of target parameters are 15. These parameters were classified with high and low sensitivity parameter relatively.

Inverse Model Parameter Estimation Based on Sensitivity Analysis for Improvement of PM10 Forecasting (PM10 예보 향상을 위한 민감도 분석에 의한 역모델 파라메터 추정)

  • Yu, Suk Hyun;Koo, Youn Seo;Kwon, Hee Yong
    • Journal of Korea Multimedia Society
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    • v.18 no.7
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    • pp.886-894
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    • 2015
  • In this paper, we conduct sensitivity analysis of parameters used for inverse modeling in order to estimate the PM10 emissions from the 16 areas in East Asia accurately. Parameters used in sensitivity analysis are R, the observational error covariance matrix, and B, a priori (background) error covariance matrix. In previous studies, it was used with the predetermined parameter empirically. Such a method, however, has difficulties in estimating an accurate emissions. Therefore, an automatically determining method for the most suitable value of R and B with an error measurement criteria and posteriori emissions accuracy is required. We determined the parameters through a sensitivity analysis, and improved the accuracy of posteriori emissions estimation. Inverse modeling methods used in the emissions estimation are pseudo inverse, NNLS (Nonnegative Least Square), and BA(Bayesian Approach). Pseudo inverse has a small error, but has negative values of emissions. In order to resolve the problem, NNLS is used. It has a unrealistic emissions, too. The problems are resolved with BA(Bayesian Approach). We showed the effectiveness and the accuracy of three methods through case studies.

Modal Parameter Sensitivity Analysis Using Component Mode Synthesis Method (부분 구조물의 모드 합성을 이용한 구조물 모드 매개변수의 민감도 해석)

  • 김형중;박윤식
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society for Noise and Vibration Engineering Conference
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    • 1997.04a
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    • pp.184-191
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    • 1997
  • A method, termed as the substructural sensitivity synthesis method, which utilizes the computational merits of the component mode synthesis technique is proposed to calculate design sensitivity of modal parameters of substructurally combined structures. In this method, the sensitivity analysis is combined with component mode synthesis thchnique. thus the degrees of freedom of a combined structure can be dramatically reduced. Free-interface mode method including the residual attachment modes among the component mode synthesis methods is used to calculate the modal sensitivity of the combined structure. For the design sensitivities of modal properties of structure, the Nelson's method, which is exact solving method is used. It is shown that the modal sensitivities of the entire structure can be obtained by synthesizing the substructural modal data, and the sensitivities of the modal data about the design variables of modifiable substructure. Using the proposed method, the final degrees of freedom of entire structure can be remarkably reduced to calculate the modal parameter sensitivities. With a structure composed of beams and plates, as an example, the sensitivities of the eigenvalues and eigenvectors obtained by this proposed method were compared with the exact solutions in terms of accuracy.

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Controller design by using pole-sensitivity (극점감도를 이용한 제어기 설계)

  • 임동균;강진식;서병설
    • 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 1990.10a
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    • pp.446-450
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    • 1990
  • In this paper, we present a method of analysing perturbed linear system by pole sensitivity defined by the rate of pole movement with respect of perturbation. Pole sensitivity give us not only the rate of pole movement but also the directional information of the pole movement. We present a method of design of a LQR by considering the pole sensitivity and show that the suggested method guarantee the stability robustness of parameter perturbation.

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Establishment of Rainfall and Contaminants Runoff Modeling System for the Joman River Watershed Using SWMM (SWMM을 이용한 조만강 유역 강우-오염물 유출모델링시스템 구축)

  • Lee, Yong-Chin;Yoon, Young-Sam;Lee, Nam-Joo
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.18 no.9
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    • pp.983-992
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    • 2009
  • The purpose of the present study is to analyze pollutant runoff characteristics from non-point sources in Joman River basin. The present study contains analyzed results of rainfall and SS, BOD, COD, TN, TP runoff from Joman River basin. This study contains a sensitivity analysis of parameters that affect the simulation results of rainfall and pollutants runoff. Result of the sensitivity analysis shows that proportion of watershed and impervious areas is the most sensitive to peak discharge and total flowrate for rainfall runoff and that WASHPO is the most sensitive parameter for pollutants runoff. For parameter estimation and verification, flowrate and water quality is measured at the Kangdong Bridge in Haeban stream. A single rainfall event is use to perform parameter estimation and verification. Results of the present study show that total pollutant loads of Joman River basin is 11,600 ton of SS, 452 ton of BOD, 1,084 ton of COD, 515 ton of TN, and 49 ton of TP, respectively. In addition, it is found that contribution ratio of non point source and total source is 89% of SS, 63% of BOD, 61% of COD, 21% of TN, and 32% of TP, respectively.

A Study on the Prediction of Bead Geometry for Lab Joint Fillet Welds Using Sensitivity Analysis (민감도 분석을 이용한 겹치기 필릿용접부 비드형상 예측에 관한 연구)

  • Jeong, Jae-Won;Kim, Ill-Soo;Kim, Hak-Hyoung;Kim, In-Ju;Bang, Hong-In
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Machine Tool Engineers
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    • v.17 no.6
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    • pp.49-55
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    • 2008
  • Arc welding process is one of the most important technologies to join metal plates. Robotic welding offers the reduced manufacturing cost sought, but its widespread use demands a means of sensing and correcting for inaccuracies in the part, the fixturing and the robot. A number of problems that need to be addressed in robotic arc welding processes include sensing, joint tracking, and lack of adequate models for process parameter prediction and quality control. Problems with parameter settings and quality control occur frequently in the GMA(Gas Metal Arc) welding process due to the large number of interactive process parameters that must be set and accurately controlled. The objectives of this paper are to realize the mapping characteristics of bead width using a sensitivity analysis and develop the neural network and multiple regression method, and finally select the most accurate model in order to control the weld quality(bead width) for fillet welding. The experimental results show that the proposed neural network estimator can predict bead width with reasonable accuracy, and guarantee the uniform weld quality.

Effect of Microstructure on the High Deformation Stability of Incoloy 825 Alloy (Incoloy 825 합금의 고온 변형 안정성에 미치는 미세조직의 영향)

  • Kang, Chang-Yong;Kim, Seong-Hwi;Park, Young-Tae
    • Journal of Power System Engineering
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.20-26
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    • 2017
  • This study was carried out to investigate the effect of precipitate on the high temperature deformation stability of incoloy 825 alloy. $Cr_{23}C_6$ carbide was precipitated under $950^{\circ}C$, but was not detected over $1,000^{\circ}C$. Most of the precipitation consist of $Cr_{23}C_6$ carbide. Strain-rate sensitivity was the highest in 0.01/s and the lowest in 10/s. Strain-rate sensitivity was decreased sharply below $950^{\circ}C$. In the temperature between $850^{\circ}C{\sim}1,150^{\circ}C$, plastic instable area did not exist. It showed the lowest Ziegler Parameter value of 0.06 Ziegler Parameter was the lowest as 0.06 at $850^{\circ}C$ with 10s-1 of strain. The highest Ziegler Parameter value(0.43) was found in plastic deformation at $1,050^{\circ}C$ with 0.01s-1 of strain. It tends to have an higher resistance to the high temperature deformation under $950^{\circ}C$, due to the precipitation.

The effect of sensitive and non-sensitive parameters on DCGL in probability analysis for decommissioning of nuclear facilities

  • Hyung-Woo Seo;Hyein Kim
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.55 no.10
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    • pp.3559-3570
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    • 2023
  • In the decommissioning of nuclear facilities, Derived Concentration Guideline Level (DCGL) derivation is necessary for the release of the facility after the site remediation, which also needs to be implemented in the stage of establishing a decommissioning planning. In order to derive DCGL, the dose assessment for the receptors can be conducted from residual radioactivity by using RESRAD code. When performing sensitivity analysis on probabilistic parameters, secondary evaluation is performed by assigning a single value for parameters classified as sensitive. However, several options may arise in the handling of nonsensitive parameters. Therefore, we compared the results of the first execution of RESRAD applying probabilistic parameters for each scenario with the results of the second execution applying a single value to sensitive parameters among the probabilistic parameters. In addition, we analyzed the effect of setting options for non-sensitive parameters. As a result, the effect on DCGL were different depending on the application scenario, the target radionuclides, and the input parameter selections. In terms of the overall evaluation period, the DCGL graph of the default option was generally shown as the most conservative except for some radionuclides. However, it will not necessarily be given priority in the aspect of the need to reflect site characteristics. The reason for selecting a probabilistic parameter is the availability of the parameter and the uncertainty of applying a single value. Therefore, as an alternative, it can be consistently applied to distribution as an option for non-sensitive parameters after sensitivity analysis.