• Title/Summary/Keyword: parameter evaluation simulation

Search Result 209, Processing Time 0.031 seconds

Alternative robust estimation methods for parameters of Gumbel distribution: an application to wind speed data with outliers

  • Aydin, Demet
    • Wind and Structures
    • /
    • v.26 no.6
    • /
    • pp.383-395
    • /
    • 2018
  • An accurate determination of wind speed distribution is the basis for an evaluation of the wind energy potential required to design a wind turbine, so it is important to estimate unknown parameters of wind speed distribution. In this paper, Gumbel distribution is used in modelling wind speed data, and alternative robust estimation methods to estimate its parameters are considered. The methodologies used to obtain the estimators of the parameters are least absolute deviation, weighted least absolute deviation, median/MAD and least median of squares. The performances of the estimators are compared with traditional estimation methods (i.e., maximum likelihood and least squares) according to bias, mean square deviation and total mean square deviation criteria using a Monte-Carlo simulation study for the data with and without outliers. The simulation results show that least median of squares and median/MAD estimators are more efficient than others for data with outliers in many cases. However, median/MAD estimator is not consistent for location parameter of Gumbel distribution in all cases. In real data application, it is firstly demonstrated that Gumbel distribution fits the daily mean wind speed data well and is also better one to model the data than Weibull distribution with respect to the root mean square error and coefficient of determination criteria. Next, the wind data modified by outliers is analysed to show the performance of the proposed estimators by using numerical and graphical methods.

Simulation of Planted Area Index (PAI) for Crop Spacing Methods in Plant Factory (식물공장내 작물의 간격조절방법에 대한 식재면적지표 시뮬레이션)

  • Kim, Joon-Yong;Yang, Seung-Hwan;Lee, Chun-Gu;Ashtiani, A.A.;Rhee, Joong-Yong
    • Journal of Biosystems Engineering
    • /
    • v.36 no.5
    • /
    • pp.348-354
    • /
    • 2011
  • Various crop spacing methods have been implemented so far for the greenhouse and plant factory applications. However, there is no generally accepted parameter for evaluation of plant spacing efficiency in plant production system. In this study, 'Planted Area Index' (PAI) of a spacing method is defined as the ratio of the planted area in the field to required planted area using the spacing method when no transplanting operation is assumed. Three common types of spacing methods for plane placement of the plants were modeled mathematically. For calculating the planted area, an optimal growth radius function (R(t)) is needed. Function of the days after transplanting stage gives a radius of an optimal circle area for the living plants. A computer simulation was developed to calculate the PAI, based on three crop spacing methods and four optimal growth radius functions. In general, the 1-D zigzag spacing showed the best PAI. Moreover, it gives an example on how to apply the PAI for the design.

Evaluation of Creep Crack Growth Failure Probability at Weld Interface Using Monte Carlo Simulation (몬테카를로 모사에 의한 용접 계면에서의 크리프 균열성장 파손 확률 평가)

  • Lee Jin-Sang;Yoon Kee-Bong
    • Journal of Welding and Joining
    • /
    • v.23 no.6
    • /
    • pp.61-66
    • /
    • 2005
  • A probabilistic approach for evaluating failure risk is suggested in this paper. Probabilistic fracture analyses were performed for a pressurized pipe of a Cr-Mo steel reflecting variation of material properties at high temperature. A crack was assumed to be located along the weld fusion line. Probability density functions of major variables were determined by statistical analyses of material creep and creep crack growth data measured by the previous experimental studies by authors. Distributions of these variables were implemented in Monte Carlo simulation of this study. As a fracture parameter for characterizing growth of a fusion line crack between two materials with different creep properties, $C_t$ normalized with $C^*$ was employed. And the elapsed time was also normalized with tT, Resultingly, failure probability as a function of operating time was evaluated fur various cases. Conventional deterministic life assessment result was turned out to be conservative compared with that of probabilistic result. Sensitivity analysis for each input variable was conducted to understand the most influencing variable to the analysis results. Internal pressure, creep crack growth coefficient and creep coefficient were more sensitive to failure probability than other variables.

Evaluation of soil spatial variability by micro-structure simulation

  • Fei, Suozhu;Tan, Xiaohui;Wang, Xue;Du, Linfeng;Sun, Zhihao
    • Geomechanics and Engineering
    • /
    • v.17 no.6
    • /
    • pp.565-572
    • /
    • 2019
  • Spatial variability is an inherent characteristic of soil, and auto-correlation length (ACL) is a very important parameter in the reliability or probabilistic analyses of geotechnical engineering that consider the spatial variability of soils. Current methods for estimating the ACL need a large amount of laboratory or in-situ experiments, which is a great obstacle to the application of random field theory to geotechnical reliability analysis and design. To estimate the ACL reasonably and efficiently, we propose a micro-structure based numerical simulation method. The quartet structure generation set algorithm is used to generate stochastic numerical micro-structure of soils, and scanning electron microscope test of soil samples combined with digital image processing technique is adopted to obtain parameters needed in the QSGS algorithm. Then, 2-point correlation function is adopted to calculate the ACL based on the generated numerical micro-structure of soils. Results of a case study shows that the ACL can be estimated efficiently using the proposed method. Sensitivity analysis demonstrates that the ACL will become stable with the increase of mesh density and model size. A model size of $300{\times}300$ with a grid size of $1{\times}1$ is suitable for the calculation of the ACL of clayey soils.

Electrical fire simulation in control room of an AGN reactor

  • Jyung, Jae-Min;Chang, Yoon-Suk
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
    • /
    • v.53 no.2
    • /
    • pp.466-473
    • /
    • 2021
  • Fire protection is one of important issues to ensure safety and reduce risks of nuclear power plants (NPPs). While robust programs to shut down commercial reactors in any fires have been successfully maintained, the concept and associated regulatory requirements are constantly changing or strengthening by lessons learned from operating experiences and information all over the world. As part of this context, it is necessary not only to establish specific fire hazard assessment methods reflecting the characteristics of research reactors and educational reactors but also to make decisions based on advancement encompassing numerical analyses and experiments. The objectives of this study are to address fire simulation in the control room of an educational reactor and to discuss integrity of digital console in charge of main operation as well as analysis results through comparison. Three electrical fire scenarios were postulated and twenty-four thermal analyses were carried out taking into account two turbulence models, two cable materials and two ventilation conditions. Twelve supplementary thermal analyses and six subsequent structural analyses were also conducted for further examination on the temperature and heat flux of cable and von Mises stress of digital console, respectively. As consequences, effects of each parameter were quantified in detail and future applicability was briefly discussed. On the whole, higher profiles were obtained when Deardorff turbulence model was employed or polyvinyl chloride material and larger ventilation condition were considered. All the maximum values considered in this study met the allowable criteria so that safety action seems available by sustained integrity of the cable linked to digital console within operators' reaction time of 300 s.

Attack-Resistant Received Signal Strength based Compressive Sensing Wireless Localization

  • Yan, Jun;Yu, Kegen;Cao, Yangqin;Chen, Liang
    • KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
    • /
    • v.11 no.9
    • /
    • pp.4418-4437
    • /
    • 2017
  • In this paper a three-phase secure compressive sensing (CS) and received signal strength (RSS) based target localization approach is proposed to mitigate the effect of malicious node attack. RSS measurements are first arranged into a group of subsets where the same measurement can be included in multiple subsets. Intermediate target position estimates are then produced using individual subsets of RSS measurements and the CS technique. From the intermediate position estimates, the residual error vector and residual error square vector are formed. The least median of residual error square is utilized to define a verifier parameter. The selected residual error vector is utilized along with a threshold to determine whether a node or measurement is under attack. The final target positions are estimated by using only the attack-free measurements and the CS technique. Further, theoretical analysis is performed for parameter selection and computational complexity evaluation. Extensive simulation studies are carried out to demonstrate the advantage of the proposed CS-based secure localization approach over the existing algorithms.

A study on improvement of leaky bucket UPC algorithm in ATM networks (ATM 망에서의 Leaky Bucket UPC 알고리즘의 성능 개선에 관한 연구)

  • 심영진;박성곤;조용환
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
    • /
    • v.22 no.5
    • /
    • pp.1116-1125
    • /
    • 1997
  • In this paper, the modified UPC(Usage Parameter Control) algorithm is proposed. The proposed UPC algorithm is based on Leakey Bucket algorithm and adds the characteristics of the jumping window algorithm for monitoring the average bit rate. The proposed algorithm let a cell, which is tagged by Leaky Bucket algorithm, pass through the network, if the network does not violate the average bit rate. The measuring method of window mechanism like jumping window. This paper supposes On/Off traffic source model of rthe performance evaluation and analysis of the proposed algorithm. Therefore, as simulation results, the proposed algorithm acquires more reduced results of the cell loss rate and bucket size than the Leaky Bucket algorithm.

  • PDF

Uncertainty Analysis of Dynamic Thermal Rating of Overhead Transmission Line

  • Zhou, Xing;Wang, Yanling;Zhou, Xiaofeng;Tao, Weihua;Niu, Zhiqiang;Qu, Ailing
    • Journal of Information Processing Systems
    • /
    • v.15 no.2
    • /
    • pp.331-343
    • /
    • 2019
  • Dynamic thermal rating of the overhead transmission lines is affected by many uncertain factors. The ambient temperature, wind speed and wind direction are the main sources of uncertainty. Measurement uncertainty is an important parameter to evaluate the reliability of measurement results. This paper presents the uncertainty analysis based on Monte Carlo. On the basis of establishing the mathematical model and setting the probability density function of the input parameter value, the probability density function of the output value is determined by probability distribution random sampling. Through the calculation and analysis of the transient thermal balance equation and the steady- state thermal balance equation, the steady-state current carrying capacity, the transient current carrying capacity, the standard uncertainty and the probability distribution of the minimum and maximum values of the conductor under 95% confidence interval are obtained. The simulation results indicate that Monte Carlo method can decrease the computational complexity, speed up the calculation, and increase the validity and reliability of the uncertainty evaluation.

Performance Evaluation of Common Feedback Channels for Multicast Transmission and Optimization of System Parameters (멀티캐스트 전송을 위한 공용 피드백 채널의 성능 분석 및 파라미터 최적화 설계 방법)

  • Jung, Young-Ho;Kim, Byung-Gun
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
    • /
    • v.34 no.5B
    • /
    • pp.489-497
    • /
    • 2009
  • In the 3GPP LTE and IEEE 802.16m standardizations for IMT-Advanced, the efficient transmission of multicast and broadcast data is one of the important issues to improve system performance. Especially, to guarantee each user's QoS in the multicast group, H-ARQ or adaptive modulation are considered to be adoption, however, reduction of feedback overhead is one of the most important issues. In this paper, performance of the previously proposed OOK (On-Off Keying) based common ACK/NACK feedback channel is analyzed through theoretical analysis and simulation. Based on the results, system parameter optimization methods for common feedback channel are proposed. In addition, through computer simulation, it is shown that the common feedback method according to the proposed feedback parameter optimization can feedback ACK/NACK information for multicast H-ARQ transmission, more reliably than the conventional user dedicated feedback method in 3GPP LTE systems, and can reduce the feedback overhead as well.

Estimating Concentrations of Pesticide Residue in Soil from Pepper Plot Using the GLEAMS Model

  • Jin, So-Hyun;Yoon, Kwang-Sik;Shim, Jae-Han;Choi, Woo-Jung;Choi, Dong-Ho;Kim, Bo-Mi;Lim, Sang-Sun;Jung, Jae-Woon;Lee, Kyoung-Sook;Hong, Su-Myeong
    • Korean Journal of Environmental Agriculture
    • /
    • v.30 no.4
    • /
    • pp.357-366
    • /
    • 2011
  • BACKGROUND: Mathematical model such as GLEAMS have been developed and successfully applied to upland fields to estimate the level of pesticide residues in soil. But, the GLEAMS model rarely applied to the Korean conditions. METHODS AND RESULTS: To evaluate pesticide transport in soil residue using the GLEAMS model from pepper plot, Alachlor, Endosulfan, Cypermethrin and Fenvalerate were applied for standard and double rate. Soil sampling was conducted and decaying patterns of pesticides were investigated. Observed climate data such as temperature and irrigation amount were used for hydrology simulation. The observed pesticide residue data of 2008 were used for parameter calibration, and validation of GLEAMS model was conducted with observed data of 2009. After calibration, the $K_{oc}$ (Organic carbon distribution coefficient) and WSHFRC (Washoff fraction) parameters were identified as key parameters. The simulated concentrations of the pesticides except Fenvalerate were sensitive to $K_{oc}$ parameter. Overall, soil residue concentrations of Alachlor, Cypermethrin and Fenvalerate were fairly simulated compared to those of Endosulfan. The applicability of the GLEAMS model was also confirmed by statistical analysis. CONCLUSION(s): GLEAMS model was eligible for evaluation of pesticide soil residue for Alachlor, Cypermethrin and Fenvalerate.