• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.23 no.3
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• pp.1-27
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• 2017

It is known that the economic sentiment index and macroeconomic indicators are closely related because economic agent's judgment and forecast of the business conditions affect economic fluctuations. For this reason, consumer sentiment or confidence provides steady fodder for business and is treated as an important piece of economic information. In Korea, private consumption accounts and consumer sentiment index highly relevant for both, which is a very important economic indicator for evaluating and forecasting the domestic economic situation. However, despite offering relevant insights into private consumption and GDP, the traditional approach to measuring the consumer confidence based on the survey has several limits. One possible weakness is that it takes considerable time to research, collect, and aggregate the data. If certain urgent issues arise, timely information will not be announced until the end of each month. In addition, the survey only contains information derived from questionnaire items, which means it can be difficult to catch up to the direct effects of newly arising issues. The survey also faces potential declines in response rates and erroneous responses. Therefore, it is necessary to find a way to complement it. For this purpose, we construct and assess an index designed to measure consumer economic sentiment index using sentiment analysis. Unlike the survey-based measures, our index relies on textual analysis to extract sentiment from economic and financial news articles. In particular, text data such as news articles and SNS are timely and cover a wide range of issues; because such sources can quickly capture the economic impact of specific economic issues, they have great potential as economic indicators. There exist two main approaches to the automatic extraction of sentiment from a text, we apply the lexicon-based approach, using sentiment lexicon dictionaries of words annotated with the semantic orientations. In creating the sentiment lexicon dictionaries, we enter the semantic orientation of individual words manually, though we do not attempt a full linguistic analysis (one that involves analysis of word senses or argument structure); this is the limitation of our research and further work in that direction remains possible. In this study, we generate a time series index of economic sentiment in the news. The construction of the index consists of three broad steps: (1) Collecting a large corpus of economic news articles on the web, (2) Applying lexicon-based methods for sentiment analysis of each article to score the article in terms of sentiment orientation (positive, negative and neutral), and (3) Constructing an economic sentiment index of consumers by aggregating monthly time series for each sentiment word. In line with existing scholarly assessments of the relationship between the consumer confidence index and macroeconomic indicators, any new index should be assessed for its usefulness. We examine the new index's usefulness by comparing other economic indicators to the CSI. To check the usefulness of the newly index based on sentiment analysis, trend and cross - correlation analysis are carried out to analyze the relations and lagged structure. Finally, we analyze the forecasting power using the one step ahead of out of sample prediction. As a result, the news sentiment index correlates strongly with related contemporaneous key indicators in almost all experiments. We also find that news sentiment shocks predict future economic activity in most cases. In almost all experiments, the news sentiment index strongly correlates with related contemporaneous key indicators. Furthermore, in most cases, news sentiment shocks predict future economic activity; in head-to-head comparisons, the news sentiment measures outperform survey-based sentiment index as CSI. Policy makers want to understand consumer or public opinions about existing or proposed policies. Such opinions enable relevant government decision-makers to respond quickly to monitor various web media, SNS, or news articles. Textual data, such as news articles and social networks (Twitter, Facebook and blogs) are generated at high-speeds and cover a wide range of issues; because such sources can quickly capture the economic impact of specific economic issues, they have great potential as economic indicators. Although research using unstructured data in economic analysis is in its early stages, but the utilization of data is expected to greatly increase once its usefulness is confirmed.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.20 no.1
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• pp.35-48
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• 2014

According to the 2013 construction market outlook report, the liquidation of construction companies is expected to continue due to the ongoing residential construction recession. Bankruptcies of construction companies have a greater social impact compared to other industries. However, due to the different nature of the capital structure and debt-to-equity ratio, it is more difficult to forecast construction companies' bankruptcies than that of companies in other industries. The construction industry operates on greater leverage, with high debt-to-equity ratios, and project cash flow focused on the second half. The economic cycle greatly influences construction companies. Therefore, downturns tend to rapidly increase the bankruptcy rates of construction companies. High leverage, coupled with increased bankruptcy rates, could lead to greater burdens on banks providing loans to construction companies. Nevertheless, the bankruptcy prediction model concentrated mainly on financial institutions, with rare construction-specific studies. The bankruptcy prediction model based on corporate finance data has been studied for some time in various ways. However, the model is intended for all companies in general, and it may not be appropriate for forecasting bankruptcies of construction companies, who typically have high liquidity risks. The construction industry is capital-intensive, operates on long timelines with large-scale investment projects, and has comparatively longer payback periods than in other industries. With its unique capital structure, it can be difficult to apply a model used to judge the financial risk of companies in general to those in the construction industry. Diverse studies of bankruptcy forecasting models based on a company's financial statements have been conducted for many years. The subjects of the model, however, were general firms, and the models may not be proper for accurately forecasting companies with disproportionately large liquidity risks, such as construction companies. The construction industry is capital-intensive, requiring significant investments in long-term projects, therefore to realize returns from the investment. The unique capital structure means that the same criteria used for other industries cannot be applied to effectively evaluate financial risk for construction firms. Altman Z-score was first published in 1968, and is commonly used as a bankruptcy forecasting model. It forecasts the likelihood of a company going bankrupt by using a simple formula, classifying the results into three categories, and evaluating the corporate status as dangerous, moderate, or safe. When a company falls into the "dangerous" category, it has a high likelihood of bankruptcy within two years, while those in the "safe" category have a low likelihood of bankruptcy. For companies in the "moderate" category, it is difficult to forecast the risk. Many of the construction firm cases in this study fell in the "moderate" category, which made it difficult to forecast their risk. Along with the development of machine learning using computers, recent studies of corporate bankruptcy forecasting have used this technology. Pattern recognition, a representative application area in machine learning, is applied to forecasting corporate bankruptcy, with patterns analyzed based on a company's financial information, and then judged as to whether the pattern belongs to the bankruptcy risk group or the safe group. The representative machine learning models previously used in bankruptcy forecasting are Artificial Neural Networks, Adaptive Boosting (AdaBoost) and, the Support Vector Machine (SVM). There are also many hybrid studies combining these models. Existing studies using the traditional Z-Score technique or bankruptcy prediction using machine learning focus on companies in non-specific industries. Therefore, the industry-specific characteristics of companies are not considered. In this paper, we confirm that adaptive boosting (AdaBoost) is the most appropriate forecasting model for construction companies by based on company size. We classified construction companies into three groups - large, medium, and small based on the company's capital. We analyzed the predictive ability of AdaBoost for each group of companies. The experimental results showed that AdaBoost has more predictive ability than the other models, especially for the group of large companies with capital of more than 50 billion won.

• The Journal of Korean Philosophical History
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• no.52
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• pp.393-424
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• 2017

This study investigates the relationship between South Korean youths' Confucian values and sense of citizen ethics while presenting outlook on the sense of citizen ethics based on the theory of human nature. The purpose of this study, by doing so, is to present educational measures. For this purpose, empirical research method was applied in this study. In the empirical study, youths were surveyed and the answers were statistically analyzed and discussed with a view to achieve the study purpose. In the empirical research part of the study, Korean youths' awareness on Confucian values was examined along with its relationship with the sense of citizen ethics. The effect of Confucian values on sense of citizen ethics and their relationship were analyzed to evaluate the receptivity of youths on Confucian ideas and usefulness of sense of citizen ethics. This study investigated a total of final 311 sets of data from male and female students at middle and high schools located in Seoul, Gyeonggi, South Korea. First, to identify the youths' Confucian values and level of sense of citizen ethics, descriptive statistical analysis was conducted. As a result, the survey subjects were found to have, concerning the Confucian values, world view M=3.54, human relations view M=3.66, morality cultivation M=3.76, and social order M=3.45, higher than 3.0 to represent positive levels. The morality cultivation, in particular, was recorded the highest among all whereas the social order was relatively lower, which represents the degree of relying on Confucian values to establish social order. Second, the sub-variables of Confucian values were verified according to the personal characteristics of the surveyed youths and differences in their entire perception was investigated. As a result, according to gender, morality cultivation was found higher in female students (M=3.85) than in male students (M=3.64). According to the subjective economic level of their household, world view was found higher in upper class (M=3.98) than middle-low class (M=3.25) and low class (M=3.22) while human relations view was found higher in middle-upper class (M=3.79) than low class (M=3.46). As for the family type, morality cultivation was found higher in extended family (M=3.83) than nuclear family (M=3.62); and social order was higher in extended family (M=3.54) than nuclear family (M=3.36). Third, to verify the study theme of identifying the effects of youths' Confucian values on sense of citizen morality, hierarchical regression analysis was employed in this study, which used the multi-level model of multiple regression analysis. As a result, the Confucian values was found to have significant positive (+) correlations with the entire sense of citizen ethics in order of human relations view(${\beta}=.499$), world view(${\beta}=.412$), social order(${\beta}=.341$), and morality cultivation(${\beta}=.241$). Confucian value showed significant positive (+) correlations with autonomy in order of morality cultivation(${\beta}=.458$), human relations view(${\beta}=.454$), social order(${\beta}=.362$), and world view(${\beta}=.158$). Confucian values was found to have significant positive (+) correlations with community spirit in order of human relations view(${\beta}=.295$), social order(${\beta}=.281$), and morality cultivation(${\beta}=.232$). As shown in the findings above, youths' Confucian values was found to have significant positive (+) effects on the sense of citizen ethics. It is noted that the higher the Confucian values, the more positive the sense of citizen ethics would be. Consequentially, the Confucian values was identified to play an important role in the sense of citizen ethics in the modern society. Based on this analysis, this study presented specific measures - the necessity and possibility of education on sense of citizen ethics under the theory of human nature. To this end, this study proposed to find an optimal interface between the contemporary sense of citizen ethics and Confucian ethics through the respect for human life and nature, man of virtue as the ideal human model, and united society as a desirable society model.

• Journal of the Daesoon Academy of Sciences
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• v.33
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• pp.31-62
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• 2019

The purpose of this article is to study on the Daesoon Cosmology of the Correlative Relation between Mugeuk and Taegeuk. Daesoon cosmology is a cosmology based on the juxtaposition between the Gucheon Sangje and the world. In this article, I would like to say that this theory in Daesoon Thought was developed in three stages: the phase of the Mugeuk Transcendence of Gucheon Sangje, the stage of the Taegeuk Immanence, and the phase of the Grand Opening of the Later World between Mugeuk and Taegeuk as a correlative gentle reign. First of all, the phase of the Mugeuk Transcendence of Gucheon Sangje has been revealed as a yin-yang relationship. The stage of the Taegeuk Immanence represents the togetherness of harmony and co-prosperity between yin and yang, and the phase of the Grand Opening of the Later World between Mukeuk and Taegeuk refers to the unshakable accomplishment of its character and energy. It will be said that this is due to the practical mechanism in the correct balance of yin-yang making a four stage cycle of birth, growth, harvest, and storage. In addition, the Daesoon stage of the settlement of yin and yang is revealed as a change in the growth of all things and the formation of the inner circle. The mental growth reveals the characteristics of everything in the world, each trying to shine at the height of their own respective life as they grow up energetically. The dominant culture of cerebral communion renders a soft and elegant mood and combines yin and yang to elevate the heavenly and earthly period through transcendental change into sympathetic understanding. The stage of the Grand Opening of the Later World between Mugeuk and Taegeuk is one of the earliest days of the lunar month and also the inner circle of Taegeuk. It is in line with Ken Wilbur's integrated model as a step to the true degrees to develop into a world with brightened degrees. It is a beautiful and peaceful scene where celestial maidens play music, the firewood burns, and the scholars command thunder and lightning playfully. Human beings achieve a state of happiness as a free beings who lives as gods upon the earth. This is the world of theGrand Opening of the Later World between Mugeuk and Taegeuk. Daesoon Thought was succeeded by Dojeon in 1958, when Dojeon emerged as the successor in the lineage of religious orthodoxy and was assigned the task of handling Dao in its entirety. In addition, Daesoon is a circle and represents freedom and commonly shared happiness among the populous. Cosmology in the Daesoon Thought will enable us to understand deep dimensions and the identity of members as individuals within an inner circle of correlation between transcendence and immanence. This present study tries to analyze the public effects philologically and also the mutual correlation by utilizing the truthfulness of literature and rational interpretation. The outlook for the future in Daesoon Thought also leads to the one-way communication of Daesoon as a circle.