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Growth Efficiency, Carcass Quality Characteristics and Profitability of 'High'-Market Weight Pigs ('고체중' 출하돈의 성장효율, 도체 품질 특성 및 수익성)

  • Park, M.J.;Ha, D.M.;Shin, H.W.;Lee, S.H.;Kim, W.K.;Ha, S.H.;Yang, H.S.;Jeong, J.Y.;Joo, S.T.;Lee, C.Y.
    • Journal of Animal Science and Technology
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    • v.49 no.4
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    • pp.459-470
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    • 2007
  • Domestically, finishing pigs are marketed at 110 kg on an average. However, it is thought to be feasible to increase the market weight to 120kg or greater without decreasing the carcass quality, because most domestic pigs for pork production have descended from lean-type lineages. The present study was undertaken to investigate the growth efficiency and profitability of ‘high’-market wt pigs and the physicochemical characteristics and consumers' acceptability of the high-wt carcass. A total of 96 (Yorkshire × Landrace) × Duroc-crossbred gilts and barrows were fed a finisher diet ad laibtum in 16 pens beginning from 90-kg BW, after which the animals were slaughtered at 110kg (control) or ‘high’ market wt (135 and 125kg in gilts & barrows, respectively) and their carcasses were analyzed. Average daily gain and gain:feed did not differ between the two sex or market wt groups, whereas average daily feed intake was greater in the barrow and high market wt groups than in the gilt and 110-kg market wt groups, respectively(P<0.01). Backfat thickness of the high-market wt gilts and barrows corrected for 135 and 125-kg live wt, which were 23.7 and 22.5 mm, respectively, were greater (P<0.01) than their corresponding 110-kg counterparts(19.7 & 21.1 mm). Percentages of the trimmed primal cuts per total trimmed lean (w/w), except for that of loin, differed statistically (P<0.05) between two sex or market wt groups, but their numerical differences were rather small. Crude protein content of the loin was greater in the high vs. 110-kg market group (P<0.01), but crude fat and moisture contents and other physicochemical characteristics including the color of this primal cut were not different between the two sexes or market weights. Aroma, marbling and overall acceptability scores were greater in the high vs. 110-kg market wt group in sensory evaluation for fresh loin (P<0.01); however, overall acceptabilities for cooked loin, belly and ham were not different between the two market wt groups. Marginal profits of the 135- and 125-kg high-market wt gilt and barrow relative to their corresponding 110-kg ones were approximately -35,000 and 3,500 wons per head under the current carcass grading standard and price. However, if it had not been for the upper wt limits for the A- and B-grade carcasses, marginal profits of the high market wt gilt and barrow would have amounted to 22,000 and 11,000 wons per head, respectively. In summary, 120~125-kg market pigs are likely to meet the consumers' preference better than the 110-kg ones and also bring a profit equal to or slightly greater than that of the latter even under the current carcass grading standard. Moreover, if only the upper wt limits of the A- & B-grade carcasses were removed or increased to accommodate the high-wt carcass, the optimum market weights for the gilt and barrow would fall upon their target weights of the present study, i.e. 135 and 125 kg, respectively.

Comparison of CT based-CTV plan and CT based-ICRU38 plan in brachytherapy planning of uterine cervix cancer (자궁경부암 강내조사 시 CT를 이용한 CTV에 근거한 치료계획과 ICRU 38에 근거할 치료계획의 비교)

  • Shim JinSup;Jo JungKun;Si ChangKeun;Lee KiHo;Lee DuHyun;Choi KyeSuk
    • The Journal of Korean Society for Radiation Therapy
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.9-17
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    • 2004
  • Purpose : Although Improve of CT, MRI Radio-diagnosis and Radiation Therapy Planing, but we still use ICRU38 Planning system(2D film-based) broadly. 3-Dimensional ICR plan(CT image based) is not only offer tumor and normal tissue dose but also support DVH information. On this study, we plan irradiation-goal dose on CTV(CTV plan) and irradiation-goal dose on ICRU 38 point(ICRU38 plan) by use CT image. And compare with tumor-dose, rectal-dose, bladder-dose on both planning, and analysis DVH Method and Material : Sample 11 patients who treated by Ir-192 HDR. After 40Gy external radiation therapy, ICR plan established. All the patients carry out CT-image scanned by CT-simulator. And we use PLATO(Nucletron) v.14.2 planing system. We draw CTV, rectum, bladder on the CT image. And establish plan irradiation-$100\%$ dose on CTV(CTV plan) and irradiation-$100\%$ dose on A-point(ICRU38 plan) Result : CTV volume($average{\pm}SD$) is $21.8{\pm}26.6cm^3$, rectum volume($average{\pm}SD$) is $60.9{\pm}25.0cm^3$, bladder volume($average{\pm}SD$) is $116.1{\pm}40.1cm^3$ sampled 11 patients. The volume including $100\%$ dose is $126.7{\pm}18.9cm^3$ on ICRU plan and $98.2{\pm}74.5cm^3$ on CTV plan. On ICRU planning, the other one's $22.0cm^3$ CTV volume who residual tumor size excess 4cm is not including $100\%$ isodose. 8 patient's $12.9{\pm}5.9cm^3$ tumor volume who residual tumor size belows 4cm irradiated $100\%$ dose. Bladder dose(recommended by ICRU 38) is $90.1{\pm}21.3\%$ on ICRU plan, $68.7{\pm}26.6\%$ on CTV plan, and rectal dose is $86.4{\pm}18.3\%,\;76.9{\pm}15.6\%$. Bladder and Rectum maximum dose is $137.2{\pm}50.1\%,\;101.1{\pm}41.8\%$ on ICRU plan, $107.6{\pm}47.9\%,\;86.9{\pm}30.8\%$ on CTV plan. Therefore CTV plan more less normal issue-irradiated dose than ICRU plan. But one patient case who residual tumor size excess 4cm, Normal tissue dose more higher than critical dose remarkably on CTV plan. $80\%$over-Irradiated rectal dose(V80rec) is $1.8{\pm}2.4cm^3$ on ICRU plan, $0.7{\pm}1.0cm^3$ on CTV plan. $80\%$over-Irradiated bladder dose(V80bla) is $12.2{\pm}8.9cm^3$ on ICRU plan, $3.5{\pm}4.1cm^3$ on CTV plan. Likewise, CTV plan more less irradiated normal tissue than ICRU38 plan. Conclusion : Although, prove effect and stability about previous ICRU plan, if we use CTV plan by CT image, we will reduce normal tissue dose and irradiated goal-dose at residual tumor on small residual tumor case. But bigger residual tumor case, we need more research about effective 3D-planning.

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Correlation analysis of radiation therapy position and dose factors for left breast cancer (좌측 유방암의 방사선치료 자세와 선량인자의 상관관계 분석)

  • Jeon, Jaewan;Park, Cheolwoo;Hong, Jongsu;Jin, Seongjin;Kang, Junghun
    • The Journal of Korean Society for Radiation Therapy
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    • v.29 no.1
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    • pp.37-48
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    • 2017
  • Purpose: The most basic conditions of radiation therapy is to prevent unnecessary exposure of normal tissue. The risk factors that are important o evaluate the dose emitted to the lung and heart from radiation therapy for breast cancer. Therefore, comparing the dose factors of a normal tissue according to the radion treatment position and Seeking an effective radiation treatment for breast cancer through the analysis of the correlation relationship. Materials and Methods: Computed tomography was conducted among 30 patients with left breast cancer in supine and prone position. Eclipse Treatment Planning System (Ver.11) was established by computerized treatment planning. Using the DVH compared the incident dose to normal tissue by position. Based on the result, Using the SPSS (ver.18) analyzed the dose in each normal tissue factors and Through the correlation analysis between variables, independent sample test examined the association. Finally The HI, CI value were compared Using the MIRADA RTx (ver. ad 1.6) in the supine, prone position Results: The results of computerized treatment planning of breast cancer in the supine position were V20, $16.5{\pm}2.6%$ and V30, $13.8{\pm}2.2%$ and Mean dose, $779.1{\pm}135.9cGy$ (absolute value). In the prone position it showed in the order $3.1{\pm}2.2%$, $1.8{\pm}1.7%$, $241.4{\pm}138.3cGy$. The prone position showed overall a lower dose. The average radiation dose 537.7 cGy less was exposured. In the case of heart, it showed that V30, $8.1{\pm}2.6%$ and $5.1{\pm}2.5%$, Mean dose, $594.9{\pm}225.3$ and $408{\pm}183.6cGy$ in the order supine, prone position. Results of statistical analysis, Cronbach's Alpha value of reliability analysis index is 0.563. The results of the correlation analysis between variables, position and dose factors of lung is about 0.89 or more, Which means a high correlation. For the heart, on the other hand it is less correlated to V30 (0.488), mean dose (0.418). Finally The results of independent samples t-test, position and dose factors of lung and heart were significantly higher in both the confidence level of 99 %. Conclusion: Radiation therapy is currently being developed state-of-the-art linear accelerator and a variety of treatment plan technology. The basic premise of the development think normal tissue protection around PTV. Of course, if you treat a breast cancer patient is in the prone position it take a lot of time and reproducibility of set-up problems. Nevertheless, As shown in the experiment results it is possible to reduce the dose to enter the lungs and the heart from the prone position. In conclusion, if a sufficient treatment time in the prone position and place correct confirmation will be more effective when the radiation treatment to patient.

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Solution Phase Photolyses of Substituted Diphenyl Ether Herbicides under Simulated Environmental Conditions (모조(模造) 환경조건하(環境條件下)에서의 치환(置換) Diphenyl Ether 제초제(除草劑)의 광분해(光分解)에 관(關)한 연구(硏究))

  • Lee, Jae-Koo
    • Applied Biological Chemistry
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.149-176
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    • 1974
  • Eight substituted diphenyl ether herbicides and some of their photoproducts were studied in terms of solution phase photolysis under simulated environmental conditions by using a Rayonet photochemical reactor. The test compounds absorbed sufficient light energy at the wavelength of 300 nm to undergo various photoreactions. All the photoproducts were confirmed by means of tlc, glc, ir, ms, and/or nmr spectrometry. The results obtained are summarized as follows: Solution phase photolysis of C-6989: An exceedingly large amount of p-nitrophenol formed strongly indicates the readiness of the ether linkage cleavage of this compound as the main reaction in all solvents used. Photoreduction of nitro to amino group(s) and photooxidation of trifluoromethyl to carboxyl group were recognized as minor reactions. Aqueous photolysis of p-nitrophenol: Quinone(0.28%), hydroquinone (0.66%), and p-aminophenol (0.42%) were confirmed as photoproducts, in addition to a relatively small amount of an unknown compound. The mechanisms of formation of these products were proposed to be the nitro-nitrite rearrangement via $n{\rightarrow}{\pi}^*$ excitation and the photoreduction through hydrogen abstractions by radicals, respectively. Solution phase photolysis of Nitrofen: Photochemical reduction leading to the p-amino derivative was the main reaction in n-hexane. In aqueous solution, the photoreduction of nitro to amino group and hydroxylation predominated over the ether linkage cleavage. Nucleophilic displacement of the nitro group by hydroxide ion and replacement of chlorine substituents by hydroxyl group or, to a lesser extent, hydrogen were also observed as minor reactoins. Solution phase photolysis of MO-338: Photoreduction of the nitro to amino group was marked in the n-hexane solution photolysis. In the aqueous solution, photoreduction of the nitro substituent and hydroxylation were the main reactions with replacement of chlorine substituents by the hydroxyl group and hydrogen, and cleavage of the ether linkage as minor reactions. Photolyses of MC-4379, MC-3761, MC-5127, MC-6063, and MC-7181 in n-hexane and cyclohexane: Photoreduction of the nitro group leading to the corresponding amino derivative and replacement of one of the halogen substituents by hydrogen from the solvent used were the key reactions in each compound. Aqueous photolysis of MC-4379: Cleavage of the ether linkage, replacement of the carboxymethyl by hydroxyl group, hydroxylation, and replacement of the nitro by hydroxy group were prominent with photoreduction and dechlorination as minor reactions. Aqueous photolysis of MC-3761: Cleavage of the ether linkage, replacement of the carboxymethyl by hydroxyl group, and photoreduction followed by hydroxylation were the main reactions. Aqueous photolysis of MC-5127: Replacement of carboxyethyl by hydrogen was predominant with ether linkage cleavage, photoreduction, and dechlorination as minor reactions. It was obvious that the decarboxyethylation proceeded more readily than decarboxymethylation occurring in the other compounds. Aqueous photolysis of MC-6063: Cleavage of the ether linkage and photodechlorination were the main reactions. Aqueous photolysis of MC-7181: Replacement of the carboxymethyl group by hydrogen and monodechlorination were the remarkable reactions. Cleavage of the ether linkage and hydroxylation were thought to be the minor reactions. Aqueous photolysis of 3-carboxymethyl-4-nitrophenol: The photo-induced Fries rearrangement common to aromatic esters did not appear to occur in the carboxymethyl group of this type of compound. Conversion of nitro to nitroso group was the main reaction.

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A survey on the nutrient intake and food consumption of the students at the dormitories, College of Agriculture, Seoul National University (서울대학교(大學校) 농과대학(農科大學) 남녀(男女) 기숙사생(寄宿舍生)의 영양섭취(營養攝取) 조사(調査))

  • Mo, Su-Mi;Han, In-Kyu;Kim, Ze-Uook;Lee, Chun-Yung;Kim, Ho-Sik
    • Applied Biological Chemistry
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    • v.7
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    • pp.92-104
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    • 1966
  • For the purpose of the better dietary management and to empahsize of importance in nutrition education for 552 students at the dormitories, College of Agriculture, Seoul National University, the dietary survey was conducted for each consecutive seven days, from March 7th to 13th at the boy's dormitory, from March 14th to 20th at the girl's dormitory, respectively. In comparison the average caloric and nutrient intake per caput per day at the both, girl's and boy's dormitory with the recommended dietary allowances for age of 25, the intake of calories and all nutrients except riboflavin were over the allowances for the boy, while the caloric intake by the girl was considerablly below the allowance. But it is meant that only 150 calories was actually deficient in comparison with the figure of the average energy consumption determined for the girls at the dormitory of the Sook-myung Woman's University, whose pattern of living was quite similar to those of the girls at this college. Except iron and ascorbic acid, all other nutrients were deficient for the girls. The calories in the form of protein of a diet taken by the boy was 12.9% and that by the girl was 12.8%. Protein quality of the diet taken by boy scored 70 while that by the girl scored 79. NDp Cal% of the diet taken by the boy was 7 and that by the girl was figured out to be 8. Therefore, calculated reference protein taken by the boy was 55.8 grams and that by the girl was 36.9%. Though it is generally recommended that at least 1/3 of the protein should come from animal sources, it was apparent by this survey that providing 1/5 of the protein from animal sources with remaining part of high quality vegetable protein foods in the adequate mixed diet would give satisfactory results for both girl and boy students. This was clearly demonstrated by the recommended reference protein and NDp Cal% met. Significant difference between boys and girls in the average consumption of seasonings was found. In consumption per day of seasonings, boy used 1.5 grams of red pepper powder which means they used 15 times more of red pepper than girls did. Kochujang was used 13 grams by boy-students which was as high as 21 times of that of the girl. Total salt intake by the boy was 34 grams while the girl consummed 23 grams. It is obviously recognized that boys prefer more peppery and salty flavor than girls do. To reduce the amount of protein consummed and to improve the quality of protein food, increase of riboflavin rich food and increase of fat intake in place of grain intake are recommendable to the boy. For the girl's diet, consumption of grains, particularly more intake of barley mal· be recommendable to meet the B group of vitamins allowances as well as the caloric allowance. The use of more servings of yellow green vegetables is needed to the girl.

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Calculation of Unit Hydrograph from Discharge Curve, Determination of Sluice Dimension and Tidal Computation for Determination of the Closure curve (단위유량도와 비수갑문 단면 및 방조제 축조곡선 결정을 위한 조속계산)

  • 최귀열
    • Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.7 no.1
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    • pp.861-876
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    • 1965
  • During my stay in the Netherlands, I have studied the following, primarily in relation to the Mokpo Yong-san project which had been studied by the NEDECO for a feasibility report. 1. Unit hydrograph at Naju There are many ways to make unit hydrograph, but I want explain here to make unit hydrograph from the- actual run of curve at Naju. A discharge curve made from one rain storm depends on rainfall intensity per houre After finriing hydrograph every two hours, we will get two-hour unit hydrograph to devide each ordinate of the two-hour hydrograph by the rainfall intensity. I have used one storm from June 24 to June 26, 1963, recording a rainfall intensity of average 9. 4 mm per hour for 12 hours. If several rain gage stations had already been established in the catchment area. above Naju prior to this storm, I could have gathered accurate data on rainfall intensity throughout the catchment area. As it was, I used I the automatic rain gage record of the Mokpo I moteorological station to determine the rainfall lntensity. In order. to develop the unit ~Ydrograph at Naju, I subtracted the basic flow from the total runoff flow. I also tried to keed the difference between the calculated discharge amount and the measured discharge less than 1O~ The discharge period. of an unit graph depends on the length of the catchment area. 2. Determination of sluice dimension Acoording to principles of design presently used in our country, a one-day storm with a frequency of 20 years must be discharged in 8 hours. These design criteria are not adequate, and several dams have washed out in the past years. The design of the spillway and sluice dimensions must be based on the maximun peak discharge flowing into the reservoir to avoid crop and structure damages. The total flow into the reservoir is the summation of flow described by the Mokpo hydrograph, the basic flow from all the catchment areas and the rainfall on the reservoir area. To calculate the amount of water discharged through the sluiceCper half hour), the average head during that interval must be known. This can be calculated from the known water level outside the sluiceCdetermined by the tide) and from an estimated water level inside the reservoir at the end of each time interval. The total amount of water discharged through the sluice can be calculated from this average head, the time interval and the cross-sectional area of' the sluice. From the inflow into the .reservoir and the outflow through the sluice gates I calculated the change in the volume of water stored in the reservoir at half-hour intervals. From the stored volume of water and the known storage capacity of the reservoir, I was able to calculate the water level in the reservoir. The Calculated water level in the reservoir must be the same as the estimated water level. Mean stand tide will be adequate to use for determining the sluice dimension because spring tide is worse case and neap tide is best condition for the I result of the calculatio 3. Tidal computation for determination of the closure curve. During the construction of a dam, whether by building up of a succession of horizontael layers or by building in from both sides, the velocity of the water flowinii through the closing gapwill increase, because of the gradual decrease in the cross sectional area of the gap. 1 calculated the . velocities in the closing gap during flood and ebb for the first mentioned method of construction until the cross-sectional area has been reduced to about 25% of the original area, the change in tidal movement within the reservoir being negligible. Up to that point, the increase of the velocity is more or less hyperbolic. During the closing of the last 25 % of the gap, less water can flow out of the reservoir. This causes a rise of the mean water level of the reservoir. The difference in hydraulic head is then no longer negligible and must be taken into account. When, during the course of construction. the submerged weir become a free weir the critical flow occurs. The critical flow is that point, during either ebb or flood, at which the velocity reaches a maximum. When the dam is raised further. the velocity decreases because of the decrease\ulcorner in the height of the water above the weir. The calculation of the currents and velocities for a stage in the closure of the final gap is done in the following manner; Using an average tide with a neglible daily quantity, I estimated the water level on the pustream side of. the dam (inner water level). I determined the current through the gap for each hour by multiplying the storage area by the increment of the rise in water level. The velocity at a given moment can be determined from the calcalated current in m3/sec, and the cross-sectional area at that moment. At the same time from the difference between inner water level and tidal level (outer water level) the velocity can be calculated with the formula $h= \frac{V^2}{2g}$ and must be equal to the velocity detertnined from the current. If there is a difference in velocity, a new estimate of the inner water level must be made and entire procedure should be repeated. When the higher water level is equal to or more than 2/3 times the difference between the lower water level and the crest of the dam, we speak of a "free weir." The flow over the weir is then dependent upon the higher water level and not on the difference between high and low water levels. When the weir is "submerged", that is, the higher water level is less than 2/3 times the difference between the lower water and the crest of the dam, the difference between the high and low levels being decisive. The free weir normally occurs first during ebb, and is due to. the fact that mean level in the estuary is higher than the mean level of . the tide in building dams with barges the maximum velocity in the closing gap may not be more than 3m/sec. As the maximum velocities are higher than this limit we must use other construction methods in closing the gap. This can be done by dump-cars from each side or by using a cable way.e or by using a cable way.

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A study of compaction ratio and permeability of soil with different water content (축제용흙의 함수비 변화에 의한 다짐율 및 수용계수 변화에 관한 연구)

  • 윤충섭
    • Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.13 no.4
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    • pp.2456-2470
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    • 1971
  • Compaction of soil is very important for construction of soil structures such as highway fills, embankment of reservoir and seadike. With increasing compaction effort, the strength of soil, interor friction and Cohesion increas greatly while the reduction of permerbilityis evident. Factors which may influence compaction effort are moisture content, grain size, grain distribution and other physical properties as well as the variable method of compaction. The moisture content among these parameter is the most important thing. For making the maximum density to a given soil, the comparable optimum water content is required. If there is a slight change in water content when compared with optimum water content, the compaction ratio will decrease and the corresponding mechanical properties will change evidently. The results in this study of soil compaction with different water content are summarized as follows. 1) The maximum dry density increased and corresponding optimum moisture content decreased with increasing of coarse grain size and the compaction curve is steeper than increasing of fine grain size. 2) The maximum dry density is decreased with increasing of the optimum water content and a relationship both parameter becomes rdam-max=2.232-0.02785 $W_0$ But this relstionship will be change to $r_d=ae^{-bw}$ when comparable water content changes. 3) In case of most soils, a dry condition is better than wet condition to give a compactive effort, but the latter condition is only preferable when the liquid limit of soil exceeds 50 percent. 4) The compaction ratio of cohesive soil is greeter than cohesionless soil even the amount of coarse grain sizes are same. 5) The relationship between the maximum dry density and porosity is as rdmax=2,186-0.872e, but it changes to $r_d=ae^{be}$ when water content vary from optimum water content. 6) The void ratio is increased with increasing of optimum water content as n=15.85+1.075 w, but therelation becames $n=ae^{bw}$ if there is a variation in water content. 7) The increament of permeabilty is high when the soil is a high plasticity or coarse. 8) The coefficient of permeability of soil compacted in wet condition is lower than the soil compacted in dry condition. 9) Cohesive soil has higher permeability than cohesionless soil even the amount of coarse particles are same. 10) In generall, the soil which has high optimum water content has lower coefficient of permeability than low optimum water content. 11) The coefficient of permeability has a certain relations with density, gradation and void ratio and it increase with increasing of saturation degree.

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A Thermal Time-Driven Dormancy Index as a Complementary Criterion for Grape Vine Freeze Risk Evaluation (포도 동해위험 판정기준으로서 온도시간 기반의 휴면심도 이용)

  • Kwon, Eun-Young;Jung, Jea-Eun;Chung, U-Ran;Lee, Seung-Jong;Song, Gi-Cheol;Choi, Dong-Geun;Yun, Jin-I.
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.1-9
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    • 2006
  • Regardless of the recent observed warmer winters in Korea, more freeze injuries and associated economic losses are reported in fruit industry than ever before. Existing freeze-frost forecasting systems employ only daily minimum temperature for judging the potential damage on dormant flowering buds but cannot accommodate potential biological responses such as short-term acclimation of plants to severe weather episodes as well as annual variation in climate. We introduce 'dormancy depth', in addition to daily minimum temperature, as a complementary criterion for judging the potential damage of freezing temperatures on dormant flowering buds of grape vines. Dormancy depth can be estimated by a phonology model driven by daily maximum and minimum temperature and is expected to make a reasonable proxy for physiological tolerance of buds to low temperature. Dormancy depth at a selected site was estimated for a climatological normal year by this model, and we found a close similarity in time course change pattern between the estimated dormancy depth and the known cold tolerance of fruit trees. Inter-annual and spatial variation in dormancy depth were identified by this method, showing the feasibility of using dormancy depth as a proxy indicator for tolerance to low temperature during the winter season. The model was applied to 10 vineyards which were recently damaged by a cold spell, and a temperature-dormancy depth-freeze injury relationship was formulated into an exponential-saturation model which can be used for judging freeze risk under a given set of temperature and dormancy depth. Based on this model and the expected lowest temperature with a 10-year recurrence interval, a freeze risk probability map was produced for Hwaseong County, Korea. The results seemed to explain why the vineyards in the warmer part of Hwaseong County have been hit by more freeBe damage than those in the cooler part of the county. A dormancy depth-minimum temperature dual engine freeze warning system was designed for vineyards in major production counties in Korea by combining the site-specific dormancy depth and minimum temperature forecasts with the freeze risk model. In this system, daily accumulation of thermal time since last fall leads to the dormancy state (depth) for today. The regional minimum temperature forecast for tomorrow by the Korea Meteorological Administration is converted to the site specific forecast at a 30m resolution. These data are input to the freeze risk model and the percent damage probability is calculated for each grid cell and mapped for the entire county. Similar approaches may be used to develop freeze warning systems for other deciduous fruit trees.

Development of the Accident Prediction Model for Enlisted Men through an Integrated Approach to Datamining and Textmining (데이터 마이닝과 텍스트 마이닝의 통합적 접근을 통한 병사 사고예측 모델 개발)

  • Yoon, Seungjin;Kim, Suhwan;Shin, Kyungshik
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.1-17
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    • 2015
  • In this paper, we report what we have observed with regards to a prediction model for the military based on enlisted men's internal(cumulative records) and external data(SNS data). This work is significant in the military's efforts to supervise them. In spite of their effort, many commanders have failed to prevent accidents by their subordinates. One of the important duties of officers' work is to take care of their subordinates in prevention unexpected accidents. However, it is hard to prevent accidents so we must attempt to determine a proper method. Our motivation for presenting this paper is to mate it possible to predict accidents using enlisted men's internal and external data. The biggest issue facing the military is the occurrence of accidents by enlisted men related to maladjustment and the relaxation of military discipline. The core method of preventing accidents by soldiers is to identify problems and manage them quickly. Commanders predict accidents by interviewing their soldiers and observing their surroundings. It requires considerable time and effort and results in a significant difference depending on the capabilities of the commanders. In this paper, we seek to predict accidents with objective data which can easily be obtained. Recently, records of enlisted men as well as SNS communication between commanders and soldiers, make it possible to predict and prevent accidents. This paper concerns the application of data mining to identify their interests, predict accidents and make use of internal and external data (SNS). We propose both a topic analysis and decision tree method. The study is conducted in two steps. First, topic analysis is conducted through the SNS of enlisted men. Second, the decision tree method is used to analyze the internal data with the results of the first analysis. The dependent variable for these analysis is the presence of any accidents. In order to analyze their SNS, we require tools such as text mining and topic analysis. We used SAS Enterprise Miner 12.1, which provides a text miner module. Our approach for finding their interests is composed of three main phases; collecting, topic analysis, and converting topic analysis results into points for using independent variables. In the first phase, we collect enlisted men's SNS data by commender's ID. After gathering unstructured SNS data, the topic analysis phase extracts issues from them. For simplicity, 5 topics(vacation, friends, stress, training, and sports) are extracted from 20,000 articles. In the third phase, using these 5 topics, we quantify them as personal points. After quantifying their topic, we include these results in independent variables which are composed of 15 internal data sets. Then, we make two decision trees. The first tree is composed of their internal data only. The second tree is composed of their external data(SNS) as well as their internal data. After that, we compare the results of misclassification from SAS E-miner. The first model's misclassification is 12.1%. On the other hand, second model's misclassification is 7.8%. This method predicts accidents with an accuracy of approximately 92%. The gap of the two models is 4.3%. Finally, we test if the difference between them is meaningful or not, using the McNemar test. The result of test is considered relevant.(p-value : 0.0003) This study has two limitations. First, the results of the experiments cannot be generalized, mainly because the experiment is limited to a small number of enlisted men's data. Additionally, various independent variables used in the decision tree model are used as categorical variables instead of continuous variables. So it suffers a loss of information. In spite of extensive efforts to provide prediction models for the military, commanders' predictions are accurate only when they have sufficient data about their subordinates. Our proposed methodology can provide support to decision-making in the military. This study is expected to contribute to the prevention of accidents in the military based on scientific analysis of enlisted men and proper management of them.

Rough Set Analysis for Stock Market Timing (러프집합분석을 이용한 매매시점 결정)

  • Huh, Jin-Nyung;Kim, Kyoung-Jae;Han, In-Goo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.77-97
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    • 2010
  • Market timing is an investment strategy which is used for obtaining excessive return from financial market. In general, detection of market timing means determining when to buy and sell to get excess return from trading. In many market timing systems, trading rules have been used as an engine to generate signals for trade. On the other hand, some researchers proposed the rough set analysis as a proper tool for market timing because it does not generate a signal for trade when the pattern of the market is uncertain by using the control function. The data for the rough set analysis should be discretized of numeric value because the rough set only accepts categorical data for analysis. Discretization searches for proper "cuts" for numeric data that determine intervals. All values that lie within each interval are transformed into same value. In general, there are four methods for data discretization in rough set analysis including equal frequency scaling, expert's knowledge-based discretization, minimum entropy scaling, and na$\ddot{i}$ve and Boolean reasoning-based discretization. Equal frequency scaling fixes a number of intervals and examines the histogram of each variable, then determines cuts so that approximately the same number of samples fall into each of the intervals. Expert's knowledge-based discretization determines cuts according to knowledge of domain experts through literature review or interview with experts. Minimum entropy scaling implements the algorithm based on recursively partitioning the value set of each variable so that a local measure of entropy is optimized. Na$\ddot{i}$ve and Booleanreasoning-based discretization searches categorical values by using Na$\ddot{i}$ve scaling the data, then finds the optimized dicretization thresholds through Boolean reasoning. Although the rough set analysis is promising for market timing, there is little research on the impact of the various data discretization methods on performance from trading using the rough set analysis. In this study, we compare stock market timing models using rough set analysis with various data discretization methods. The research data used in this study are the KOSPI 200 from May 1996 to October 1998. KOSPI 200 is the underlying index of the KOSPI 200 futures which is the first derivative instrument in the Korean stock market. The KOSPI 200 is a market value weighted index which consists of 200 stocks selected by criteria on liquidity and their status in corresponding industry including manufacturing, construction, communication, electricity and gas, distribution and services, and financing. The total number of samples is 660 trading days. In addition, this study uses popular technical indicators as independent variables. The experimental results show that the most profitable method for the training sample is the na$\ddot{i}$ve and Boolean reasoning but the expert's knowledge-based discretization is the most profitable method for the validation sample. In addition, the expert's knowledge-based discretization produced robust performance for both of training and validation sample. We also compared rough set analysis and decision tree. This study experimented C4.5 for the comparison purpose. The results show that rough set analysis with expert's knowledge-based discretization produced more profitable rules than C4.5.