• Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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• v.18 no.5
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• pp.33-44
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• 2023

Entrepreneurial self-efficacy is an important variable that explains people's attitudes and behaviors toward start-ups. In this study, we focused on individual psychological characteristics variables such as luck in belief and positive cognitive bias that affect entrepreneurial self-efficacy. Among these variables, we paid particular attention to luck in belief. The belief that business success depends on luck is widespread, but scientific verification about it has not been much. The reason for the academic indifference is that luck is a kind of superstition, related to precognition or extrasensory perception, and randomly caused by the external environment. The study of luck began in earnest as a measure to measure luck as an individual characteristic variable such as personality was developed. The purpose of this study is to examine the existing studies on luck in belief and to examine the effect of this luck in belief on positive cognitive bias and entrepreneurial self-efficacy through empirical analysis. For empirical analysis, this study conducted an on-line survey of 400 ordinary people and conducted a structural equation model analysis using AMOS 21.0 to verify the hypothesis. As a result of hypothesis testing, all hypotheses that luck in belief would have a positive effect on positive cognitive bias(self-enhancement bias, illusion of control bias, unrealism optimistic bias) were adopted. The hypothesis that positive cognitive bias(self-enhancement bias, illusion of control bias, unrealistic optimism bias) will have a positive effect on entrepreneurial self-efficacy was also adopted. Additional analysis was conducted to examine the mediating role of positive cognitive bias in the relationship between luck in belief and entrepreneurial self-efficacy, which showed that 'luck in belief→positive cognitive bias →entrepreneurial self-efficacy' were statistically significant. Through this, we confirmed the mediating effect of positive cognitive bias in the relationship between luck in belief and entrepreneurial self-efficacy. In the conclusion, the implications and limitations of the study were presented based on the results of this study.

• Management & Information Systems Review
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• v.35 no.4
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• pp.213-227
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• 2016

This study examines the effects of managerial ability on information asymmetry. We use analyst forecast errors as a proxy for information asymmetry, because analysts are referred to as efficient users using firm-level data. The sample consists of 2,246 non-banking firm-years listed in Korea Stock Exchange(KOSPI) during the period 2000 to 2013. We measure managerial ability using DEA(Data Envelopment Analysis) following Demerjian et al.(2012). Using those measures, we examines the effects of managerial ability on analysts' earnings forecast errors and analysts' earnings forecast bias. The results of this study are as follows. First, we find that managerial ability are positively associated with analysts' earnings forecast accuracy. Second, we show that the firms with higher managerial ability tend to have lower the optimistic errors in analysts' earnings forecasts. This study could be useful for outside stakeholders to understand the importance of managerial ability.

• East Asian Journal of Business Economics (EAJBE)
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• v.7 no.1
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• pp.17-25
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• 2019

Purpose - The international market provides a growth momentum for firms by allowing them to tap into a new market. Given information asymmetry between firms and financial analysts, firms' international growth can be perceived as a higher business prospect by analysts. This paper explores the possibility of analysts' over-emphasis on foreign income growth in predicting earnings. Research design, data, and methodology - We utilize a sample of U.S. firms to test the relationship between foreign income growth and analysts' forecast optimism. Our sample of publicly listed and traded U.S. firms between 1976 and 2016 consists of 6,120 firm-year observations. Results - Empirical analyses show that firms that show higher international growth in earnings are likely to face forecast inaccuracy by financial analysts. From the perspective of firms, their earnings are less than what analysts forecasted. Contrary to our prediction on the moderating effect of innovative capabilities, optimistic bias is not intensified - rather, it is reduced - when firms have higher innovative capabilities. Conclusions - Our results imply that while analysts favor firms with higher international growth, innovative capability on the international market places additional risks to firms' operation.

• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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• v.43 no.4
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• pp.229-235
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• 2020

Investors aim to maximize the return rate for their own investment, utilizing various information as possible as they can access. However those investors, especially individual investors, have limitations of interpretation of the domain-specific information or even the acquisition of the information itself. Thus, individual investors tend to make decision affectively and frequently, which may cause a loss in returns. This study aims to analyze analysts' target price and to suggest the strategy that could maximize individual's return rate. Most previous literature revealed that the optimistic bias exists in the analysts' target price and it is also confirmed in this study. In this context, this study suggests the upper limit of target rate of returns and the optimal value named 'alpha(α)' which performs the adjustment of proposed target rate to maximize excess earning returns eventually. To achieve this goal, this study developed an optimization problem using linear programming. Specifically, when the analysts' proposed target rate exceeds 30%, it could be adjusted to the extent of 59% of its own target rate. As apply this strategy, the investors could achieve 1.2% of excess earning rate on average. The result of this study has significance in that the individual investors could utilize analysts' target price practically.

• The Journal of Industrial Distribution & Business
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• v.8 no.5
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• pp.87-93
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• 2017

Purpose - This paper investigates whether managerial overconfidence is associated with firm-specific crash risk. Overconfidence leads managers to overestimate the returns of their investment projects, and misperceive negative net present value projects as value creating. They even use voluntary disclosures to convey their optimistic beliefs about the firms' long-term prospects to the stock market. Thus, the overconfidence bias can lead to managerial bad news hoarding behavior. When bad news accumulates and crosses some tipping point, it will come out all at once, resulting in a stock price crash. Research design, data and methodology - 7,385 firm-years used for the main analysis are from the KIS Value database between 2006 and 2013. This database covers KOSPI-listed and KOSDAQ-listed firms in Korea. The proxy for overconfidence is based on excess investment in assets. A residual from the regression of total asset growth on sales growth run by industry-year is used as an independent variable. If a firm has at least one crash week during a year, it is referred to as a high crash risk firm. The dependant variable is a dummy variable that equals 1 if a firm is a high crash risk firm, and zero otherwise. After explaining the relationship between managerial overconfidence and crash risk, the total sample was divided into two sub-samples; chaebol firms and non-chaebol firms. The relation between how I overconfidence and crash risk varies with business group affiliation was investigated. Results - The results showed that managerial overconfidence is positively related to crash risk. Specifically, the coefficient of OVERC is significantly positive, supporting the prediction. The results are strong and robust in non-chaebol firms. Conclusions - The results show that firms with overconfident managers are likely to experience stock price crashes. This study is related to past literature that examines the impact of managerial overconfidence on the stock market. This study contributes to the literature by examining whether overconfidence can explain a firm's future crashes.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.31 no.1
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• pp.239-276
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• 2009

The paper investigates the possible relationship between earnings prediction by security analysts and special ownership ties that link security companies those analysts belong to and firms under analysis. "Security analysts" are known best for their role as information producers in stock markets where imperfect information is prevalent and transaction costs are high. In such a market, changes in the fundamental value of a company are not spontaneously reflected in the stock price, and the security analysts actively produce and distribute the relevant information crucial for the price mechanism to operate efficiently. Therefore, securing the fairness and accuracy of information they provide is very important for efficiencyof resource allocation as well as protection of investors who are excluded from the special relationship. Evidence of systematic distortion of information by the special tie naturally calls for regulatory intervention, if found. However, one cannot presuppose the existence of distorted information based on the common ownership between the appraiser and the appraisee. Reputation effect is especially cherished by security firms and among analysts as indispensable intangible asset in the industry, and the incentive to maintain good reputation by providing accurate earnings prediction may overweigh the incentive to offer favorable rating or stock recommendation for the firms that are affiliated by common ownership. This study shares the theme of existing literature concerning the effect of conflict of interests on the accuracy of analyst's predictions. This study, however, focuses on the potential conflict of interest situation that may originate from the Korea-specific ownership structure of large conglomerates. Utilizing an extensive database of analysts' reports provided by WiseFn(R) in Korea, we perform empirical analysis of potential relationship between earnings prediction and common ownership. We first analyzed the prediction bias index which tells how optimistic or friendly the analyst's prediction is compared to the realized earnings. It is shown that there exists no statistically significant relationship between the prediction bias and common ownership. This is a rather surprising result since it is observed that the frequency of positive prediction bias is higher with such ownership tie. Next, we analyzed the prediction accuracy index which shows how accurate the analyst's prediction is compared to the realized earnings regardless of its sign. It is also concluded that there is no significant association between the accuracy ofearnings prediction and special relationship. We interpret the results implying that market discipline based on reputation effect is working in Korean stock market in the sense that security companies do not seem to be influenced by an incentive to offer distorted information on affiliated firms. While many of the existing studies confirm the relationship between the ability of the analystand the accuracy of the analyst's prediction, these factors cannot be controlled in the above analysis due to the lack of relevant data. As an indirect way to examine the possibility that such relationship might have distorted the result, we perform an additional but identical analysis based on a sub-sample consisting only of reports by best analysts. The result also confirms the earlier conclusion that the common ownership structure does not affect the accuracy and bias of earnings prediction by the analyst.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.19 no.6
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• pp.55-64
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• 2018

In spite of many previous studies conducted to prevent safety accidents at construction sites, the frequency of safety accidents has not decreased. And recently, a lot of research has been done to analyze the causes of the accidents resulting from the personal characteristics and behaviors of managers or workers, and eliminate them. However, despite these efforts, safety accidents occur consistently as managers and workers shift their responsibilities for the safety accidents onto someone other than themselves. Therefore, in order to prevent safety accidents, this study investigated the consciousness of shifting responsibility among managers and workers and analyzed the correlation between factors influencing the consciousness of shifting responsibility. In addition, it proposed the quantitative levels of the consciousness of shifting responsibility based on the survey of managers and workers. The results of this study demonstrated that managers tend to the shift responsibility onto workers, whereas workers the shift responsibility onto managers. It was additionally demonstrated that there is a correlation between the consciousness of shifting responsibility and the factors influencing it. The findings of this study are expected to improve the safety awareness among managers and workers and make contributions in the theoretical and practical aspects of construction safety management.

• Korean Journal of Culture and Social Issue
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• v.10 no.3
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• pp.19-36
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• 2004

An experimental research investigated the components of lottery games affecting lottery-purchasing behaviors and the psychological consequences of the behaviors. In the experiment, participants were given a chance to purchase a lottery tickets during a series of computer games and their decision of purchasing the lottery ticket was measured. Also, the size and probability of the lottery games were manipulated and the perceived difficulty, satisfaction of the mid-outcome, and perceived probability of success in the computer game were measured in order to examine their impacts on participants' lottery-purchasing decisions. In addition, the behavioral tendency, satisfaction of the final outcome, and perceived self-capability in the computer game were measured at the end of the computer games in order to examine the effects of lottery-purchasing experiences on the variables. Participants who perceived the games as easier and estimated the probability of their success highly were more likely to buy the lottery tickets. However, the winning prize and odd of lottery tickets, perceived satisfaction of their own performance, and the performance itself did not influence the purchasing decisions. The common beliefs on the negative effects of lottery-purchasing experiences on human motivation and behaviors were not supported. The implications of the present research findings and limitations of the experimental research on lottery were discussed.

• Information Systems Review
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• v.20 no.3
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• pp.51-71
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• 2018

Many studies in the field of information security reveal the need to increase awareness. However, although awareness of information security has been raised to a considerable extent, actual security behavior has been shown to fall short of that. Therefore, we wanted to identify the role of psychological factors in making information security decisions by conducting a experimental study. The results show that there are differences in perception of information security risks according to the probabilistic distance and the degree of relative optimism due to social distance. In relation to their relative optimism and intention of information security, they reduced the level of perceived risk compared to those close to them and found that their influence varied according to their probabilistic distance. This study has made valuable attempt in terms of methodology and it is meaningful that the psychological factor is taken into consideration for the information protection behavior, so that the range of relative optimism that actually affects the perception of risk is narrowed. It is expected to contribute to the improvement of information security level of information technology users and protection of information assets by empirically identifying necessity of various approaches to decision making process for information security.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.13 no.2
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• pp.97-127
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• 1991

This paper investigates the roles and the limitations of the Korean antitrust agencies-the Office of Fair Trade (OFT) and the Fair Trade Commission (FTC) during the making of the major industrial policies of the 1980's. The Korean antitrust agencies played only a minimal role in three major industrial policy-making issues in the 1980's- the enactment of the Industrial Development Act (IDA), the Industrial Rationalization Measures according to the IDA, and the Industrial Readjustment Measures on Consolidation of Large Insolvent Enterprises based on the revised Tax Exemption and Reduction Control Act. As causes for this performance bias in the Korean antitrust system, this paper considers five factors according to the current literature on implementation failure: ambiguous and insufficient statutory provisions of the Monopoly Regulation and Fair Trade Act (MRFTA); lack of resources; biased attitudes and motivations of the staff of the OFT and the FTC; bureaucratic incapability; and widespread misunderstanding about the roles and functions of the antitrust system in Korea. Among these five factors, bureaucratic incompetence and lack of understanding in various policy implementation environments about the roles and functions of the antitrust system have been regarded as the most important ones. Most staff members did not have enough educational training during their school years to engage in antitrust and fair trade policy-making. Furthermore, the high rate of staff turnover due to a mandatory personnel transfer system has prohibited the accumulation of knowledge and skills required for pursuing complicated structural antitrust enforcement. The limited capability of the OFT has put the agency in a disadvantaged position in negotiating with other economic ministries. The OFT has not provided plausible counter-arguments based on sound economic theories against other economic ministries' intensive market interventions in the name of rationalization and readjustment of industries. If the staff members of antitrust agencies have lacked substantive understanding of the antitrust and fair trade policy, the rest of government agencies must have had serious problems in understanding the correst roles and functions of the antitrust system. The policy environment of the Korean antitrust system, including other economic ministries, the Deputy Prime Minister, and President Chun, have tended to conceptualize the OFT more as an agency aiming only at fair trade policy and less as an agency that should enforce structural monopoly regulation as well. Based on this assessment of the performance of the Korean antitrust system, this paper evaluate current reform proposals for the MRFT A. The inclusion of the regulation of conglomerate mergers and of business divestiture orders may be a desirable revision, giving the MRFTA more complete provisions. However, given deficient staff experties and the unfavorable policy environments, it would be too optimistic and naive to expect that the inclusion of these provisions alone could improve the performance of the Korean antitrust system. In its conclusion, this paper suggests several policy recommendations for the Korean antitrust system, which would secure the stable development and accumulation of antitrust expertise for its staff members and enough understanding and conformity from its environments about its antitrust goals and functions.