• Title/Summary/Keyword: occurrences

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Forecasting Model Design of Fire Occurrences with ARIMA Models (ARIMA모델에 기반한 화재발생 빈도 예측모델의 설계)

  • Ahn, Sanghun;Kang, Hoon;Cho, Jaehoon;Kim, Tae-Ok;Shin, Dongil
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.20-28
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    • 2015
  • A suitable monitoring method is necessary for successful policy implementation and its evaluation, required for effective prevention of abnormal fire occurrences. To do this, there were studies for applying control charts of quality management to fire occurrence monitoring. As a result, it was proved that more fire occurs in winter and its trend moves yearly-basis with some patterns. Although it has trend, if we apply the same criteria for each time, inefficient overreacting fire prevention policy will be accomplished in winter, and deficient policy will be accomplished in summer. Thus, applying different control limits adaptively for each time would enable better forecasting and monitoring of fire occurrences. In this study, we treat fire occurrences as time series model and propose a method for configuring its coefficients with ARIMA model. Based on this, we expect to carry out advanced analysis of fire occurrences and reasonable implementation of prevention activities.

A Study on the Correlation between Fire Statistics and GNI(Gross National Income) (국민소득과 화재발생 건수의 상관관계에 관한 연구)

  • Choi, Jin-Man;Choi, Jae-Sung;Choi, Don-Mook
    • Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science
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    • v.11 no.4
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    • pp.147-152
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    • 2009
  • As a results of comparing with fire occurrences and gross national income(GNI), annual fire increasing rate has been 5.6%, and that of GNI has been 11% for the past 55 years. As GNI shows 5.4% higher than fire occurrences, economy growing rate is faster than that of fires. In addition, study has been done every 10 years from 1950's to 2000's. Fire occurrences increase twice as much annually and GNI increases above 3.3 times as much.

Analysis of Anticipated Operational Occurrences for 3-Pin Fuel Test Loop

  • Park, S.K.;Chi, D.Y.;Shim, B.S.;Park, K.N.;Ahn, S.H.;Lee, J.M.;Lee, C.Y.;Kim, Y.J.
    • Proceedings of the Korean Nuclear Society Conference
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    • 2004.10a
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    • pp.537-538
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    • 2004
  • The performance of the ECWS was predicted for the anticipated operational occurrences. The inadvertent close of loop isolation valve is the most severe case for the five anticipated operational occurrences considered in this design and meets the design criteria of the ECWS. The correlation of critical heat flux for the geometry of three pins sub-channel analysis will be studied in the feature.

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Study on the Model of Fighter Aircraft Mission Severity for Development of KF-X (한국형 전투기 개발을 위한 전투기 임무격렬도 모델 연구)

  • Kim, Sug-Ho;Hwang, Young-Ha;Shin, Ki-Su
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Military Science and Technology
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.248-257
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    • 2009
  • The aim of this paper is to propose fighter aircraft's mission severity model which can be used as one of key factors for designing a structure and determining design life of KF-X. The mission severity is a quantitative data of flight loads and expressed by Nz(Vertical Load Factor) exceedances or occurrences. The severities of the flight loads depended on the circumstances of the countries which operate fighter aircraft. In this paper we have studied on Nz occurrences/exceedances of ROKAF fighter aircraft to generate mission severity model for the KF-X. The analyses of flight data were accomplished by using the Matlab.

Models for forecasting food poisoning occurrences (식중독 발생 예측모형)

  • Yeo, In-Kwon
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.23 no.6
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    • pp.1117-1125
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    • 2012
  • The occurrence of food poisoning is usually modeled by meteorological variables like the temperature and the humidity. In this paper, we investigate the relationship between food poisoning occurrence and climate variables in Korea and compare Poisson regression and autoregressive moving average model to select the forecast model. We confirm that lagged climate variables affect the food poisoning occurrences. However, it turns out that, from the viewpoint of the prediction, the number of previous occurrences is more influential to the current occurrence than meteorological variables and Poisson regression model is less reliable.

Varietal Difference in the Occurrence of Grey Leaf Tobacco (연초grey엽 발생의 품종간 차이)

  • 이철환;진정의
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Tobacco Science
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.120-125
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    • 1995
  • Varietal difference in the occurrence of grey leaves in upland diverted from paddy field were investigated with several flue-cured tobacco varieties in Korea. Grey leaves caused by Fe, Mn and Cl toxicity were occurred in all varieties used in this experiment. The variety, NC82 and KF113, however, were more sensitive than other varieties to the toxicity. It's revealed that grey leaves had little effects on the contents of total sugar, nicotine and total nitrogen. NC82 and KF113 were increased in the ratio of occurrences in the paddy soils which had a tendency to concrete with the passage of days after transplanting. NC82 showed high occurrences of grey leaves in each of variety used and it was estimated that this variety had a traits of easy occurrences of grey leaves, and it might be presumed that there would be a close connection between the ratio of occurrence and amounts of absorbed causal materials accumulated in plants and tobacco varieties on the occurrence of grey leaf tobacco.

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Evaluating Users' Occurrences Number and Interaction of Maintenance Management Personnel's Response for Mechanical Defects Complaint in Complex Building (복합건물에서 사용자의 기계결함민원 원단위 및 유지관리조직 대응의 상호작용 평가)

  • Kwak, Ro-Yeul
    • Journal of the Architectural Institute of Korea Structure & Construction
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    • v.34 no.3
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    • pp.95-102
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    • 2018
  • In order to understand interaction between building users' occupant performance and building maintenance performance of maintenance management personnel, actual data from maintenance activities of buildings were analyzed. Also, using building defect customer complaint data reported by building user, satisfaction data on building maintenance services of building users and service response time of maintenance management personnel, a method for evaluating interaction of buildings with the same purpose and same size was proposed. Throughout analysis, average number of occurrences per unit area per year for the mechanical complaints in complex building were presented. In addition, using building users' satisfaction with facility management services, attitude of responding to business obstacles, number of occurrences per unit area per year of mechanical complaints and complaint processing speed, interaction was comprehensively identified and compared.

Estiamtion of Time Series Model on Forest Fire Occurrences and Burned Area from 1970 to 2005 (1970-2005년 동안의 산불 발생건수 및 연소면적에 대한 시계열모형 추정)

  • Lee, Byungdoo;Chung, Joosang
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.95 no.6
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    • pp.643-648
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    • 2006
  • It is important to understand the patterns of forest fire in terms of effective prevention and suppression activities. In this study, the monthly forest fire occurrences and their burned areas were investigated to enhance the understanding of the patterns of forest fire in Korea. The statistics of forest fires in Korea, 1970 through 2005, built by Korea Forest Service was analyzed by using time series analysis technique to fit ARIMA models proposed by Box-Jenkins. The monthly differences in forest fire characteristics were clearly distinguished, with 59% of total forest fire occurrences and 72% of total burned area being in March and April. ARIMA(1, 0, 1) was the best fitted model to both the fire accurrences and the burned area time series. The fire time series have a strong relation to the fire occurrences and the burned area of 1 month and 12 months before.

IDENTIFICATION AND ASSESSMENT OF AGING-RELATED DEGRADATION OCCURRENCES IN NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS

  • Choi, In-Kil;Choun, Young-Sun;Kim, Min-Kyu;Nie, Jinsuo;Braverman, Joseph I.;Hofmayer, Charles H.
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.44 no.3
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    • pp.297-310
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    • 2012
  • Aging-related degradation of nuclear power plant components is an important aspect to consider in securing the long term safety of the plant, especially the seismic safety, since the degradation of the components affects not only their seismic capacity but their response. This can cause a change in the seismic margin of a component and the overall seismic safety of a system. To better understand the status and characteristics of degradation of components in Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs), the degradation occurrences of components in the U.S. NPPs were identified by reviewing recent publicly available information sources and the characteristics of these occurrences were evaluated and compared to observations from the past. Ten categories of components that are of high risk significance in Korean NPPs were identified, comprising anchorage, concrete, containment, exchanger, filter, piping systems, reactor pressure vessels, structural steel, tanks, and vessels. Software tools were developed to expedite the review process. Results from this review effort were compared to previous data in the literature to characterize the overall degradation trends.

Analysis of Train Operation Obstacle Using Number of Failures and Delay Time of Electric Door System (전기식 도어시스템의 고장건수 및 지연시간을 활용한 열차운행장애 분석)

  • Lee, Bon Hyung;Kim, Doo-Hyun;Kim, Sung-Chul
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.35 no.1
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    • pp.12-17
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    • 2020
  • This paper analyzes functions of component parts of D-Urban Railway's door system along with operation obstacle risks on frequency(the number of occurrences/year) and severity(delay time/the number of occurrences). Based on this, the paper presents improvements and current system's problems after obstacle risks of EMU and door system are appled. The obstacle of door system causes corrosion of main parts such as DCU due to heat problem of operation environment, problems of maintenance methods and deterioration. DCUs on PCBs with more than 50% pattern corrosion cause problems. Even though the number of door system's obstacle occurrences for the last 5 years is 42, along with 104 minutes of operation obstacle, EMU operation obstacle risk is low(Level 1), which indicates there is limit in matrix of railway risks presented by the standard of railway safety management system. Therefore, it is necessary to have railway risk matrix suitable for the field. Finally, the paper deducts the obstacle risks through frequency and severity. Since 2017 when the risks of EMU and door system's obstacle, that of EMU has been 24(47% reduced) and that of door system has been average 9.5 per year(23% reduced).