• Title/Summary/Keyword: nonlinear prediction

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Modeling Residual Chlorine and THMs in Water Distribution System (배급수계통에서 잔류염소 및 THMs 분포 예측에 관한 연구)

  • Ahn, Jae-Chan;Lee, Su-Won;Rho, Bang-Sik;Choi, Young-Jun;Choi, Jae-Ho;Kim, Hyo-Il;Park, Tae-Jun;Park, Chang-Min;Park, Hyeon;Koo, Ja-Yong
    • Journal of Korean Society of Environmental Engineers
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    • v.29 no.6
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    • pp.706-714
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    • 2007
  • This study suggested a method for prediction of residual chlorine and THMs in water distribution system by measurement of residual chlorine, THMs, and other parameters, estimation of chlorine decay coefficients and THM formation coefficients, and simulation of water qualities using pipe network analysis. Bulk decay coefficients of parallel first-order were obtained by bottle tests, and pipe wall decay coefficients of first-order were estimated through evaluation of 5 models, which showed the lowest values of 0.03 for MAE(mean absolute error) and 0.037 MAE in comparison with the observed in field. And bottle tests were conducted to model first-order reaction of THM formation by nonlinear least square regression and the resultant coefficients were compared with the observed in field. As a result, the coefficients of determination$(R^2)$ for the observed and the predicted values were 0.98 in September and 0.82 in November, and the formation of THMs was predicted by modeling.

Investigating Remotely Sensed Precipitation from Different Sources and Their Nonlinear Responses in a Physically Based Hydrologic Model (다른 원격탐사 센서로 추출한 강우자료의 이질성과 이에 의한 비선형유출반응에 미치는 영향)

  • Oh, Nam-Sun;Lee, Khil-Ha;Kim, Sang-Jun
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.39 no.10 s.171
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    • pp.823-832
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    • 2006
  • Precipitation is the most important component to the study of water and energy cycle in hydrology. In this study we investigate rainfall retrieval uncertainty from different sources of remotely sensed precipitation field and then probable error propagation in the simulation of hydrologic variables especially, runoff on different vegetation cover. Two remotely sensed rainfall retrievals (space-borne IR-only and ground radar rainfall) are explored and compared visually and statistically. Then, an offline Community Land Model (CLM) is forced with in situ meteorological data to simulate the amount of runoff and determine their impact on model predictions. A fundamental assumption made in this study is that CLM can adequately represent the physical land surface processes. Results show there are big differences between different sources of precipitation fields in terms of the magnitude and temporal variability. The study provides some intuitions on the uncertainty of hydrologic prediction via the interaction between the land surface and near atmosphere fluxes in the modelling approach. Eventually it will contribute to the understanding of water resources redistribution to the climate change in Korean Peninsula.

Effect of Cortical Bone on Acoustic Properties of Trabecular Bone in Bovine Femur In Vitro (생체 외 조건의 소 대퇴골에서 해면질골의 음향특성에 대한 피질골의 효과)

  • Hwang, Kyo Seung;Lee, Kang Il
    • The Journal of the Acoustical Society of Korea
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    • v.32 no.2
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    • pp.181-189
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    • 2013
  • The purpose of the present study is to investigate the effect of cortical bone on acoustic properties of trabecular bone, such as speed of sound (SOS) and normalized broadband ultrasound attenuation (nBUA), in bovine femur in vitro. Twelve trabecular bone samples and three cortical bone plates with thicknesses of 1.00, 1.47, and 2.00 mm were extracted from the proximal end of two bovine femurs. The correlations between acoustic properties and trabecular apparent bone density were also examined before and after attaching a cortical bone plate to the trabecular bone samples. SOS increased linearly with increasing thickness of the cortical plate attached to one side of ultrasonic incidence of the trabecular bone samples, whereas nBUA showed a nonlinear dependence on the thickness of the cortical plate. All the SOS (r = 0.95-0.97) and nBUA (r = 0.53-0.73) measurements with and without the cortical bone plate with various thicknesses were found to exhibit high correlations with the trabecular apparent bone density. These results imply that the acoustic properties measured in the femur with lateral cortical layers in vitro can be useful indices for the prediction of trabecular bone mineral density.

Suggestion of Modified Compression Index for secondary consolidation using by Nonlinear Elasto Viscoplastic Models (비선형 점탄소성 모델을 이용한 2차압밀이 포함된 수정압축지수개발)

  • Choi, Bu-Sung;Im, Jong-Chul;Kwon, Jung-Keun
    • Proceedings of the Korean Geotechical Society Conference
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    • 2008.10a
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    • pp.1115-1123
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    • 2008
  • When constructing projects such as road embankments, bridge approaches, dikes or buildings on soft, compressible soils, significant settlements may occur due to the consolidation of these soils under the superimposed loads. The compressibility of the soil skeleton of a soft clay is influenced by such factors as structure and fabric, stress path, temperature and loading rate. Although it is possible to determine appropriate relations and the corresponding material parameters in the laboratory, it is well known that sample disturbance due to stress release, temperature change and moisture content change can have a profound effect on the compressibility of a clay. The early research of Tezaghi and Casagrande has had a lasting influence on our interpretation of consolidation data. The 24 hour, incremental load, oedometer test has become, more or less, the standard procedure for determining the one-dimensional, stress-strain behavior of clays. An important notion relates to the interpretation of the data is the ore-consolidation pressure ${\sigma}_p$, which is located approximately at the break in the slope on the curve. From a practical point of view, this pressure is usually viewed as corresponding to the maximum past effective stress supported by the soil. Researchers have shown, however, that the value of ${\sigma}_p$ depends on the test procedure. furthermore, owing to sampling disturbance, the results of the laboratory consolidation test must be corrected to better capture the in-situ compressibility characteristics. The corrections apply, strictly speaking, to soils where the relation between strain and effective stress is time independent. An important assumption in Terzaghi's one-dimensional theory of consolidation is that the soil skeleton behaves elastically. On the other hand, Buisman recognized that creep deformations in settlement analysis can be important. this has led to extensions to Terzaghi's theory by various investigators, including the applicant and coworkers. The main object of this study is to suggestion the modified compression index value to predict settlements by back calculating the $C_c$ from different numerical models, which are giving best prediction settlements for multi layers including very thick soft clay.

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Prediction of Crack Pattern of Continuously Reinforced Concrete Track Induced by Temperature Change and Shrinkage of Concrete (온도 변화와 콘크리트 수축에 의한 연속철근 콘크리트궤도의 균열 발생 패턴 예측)

  • Bae, Sung Geun;Choi, Seongcheol;Jang, Seung Yup;Cha, Soo Won
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Railway
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.270-280
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    • 2014
  • In this study, to examine the causes of cracks in continuously reinforced concrete tracks (CRCTs) and the main factors affecting cracking, a field survey on the status of cracks and crack patterns in the Gyeong-bu high speed line was conducted, and the crack patterns of CRCT due to the temperature difference between the top of the slab (TCL) and the bottom of the subbase (HSB) and the drying shrinkage of concrete were predicted by a nonlinear finite element model considering the structure of CRCT. The results of the numerical analysis show that cracks will be developed at the interface between the sleeper and the TCL, and under the sleeper due to the temperature difference and concrete shrinkage. This corresponds well to the crack locations found in the field. Also, it is found that the most significant factors are the coefficient of thermal expansion with respect to the temperature difference, and the drying shrinkage strain with respect to shrinkage. According to the results, the reinforcement ratio should be carefully determined considering the structures of CRCT because the crack spacing is not always proportional to the reinforcement ratio due to the sleepers embedded in the TCL.

Learning for Environment and Behavior Pattern Using Recurrent Modular Neural Network Based on Estimated Emotion (감정평가에 기반한 환경과 행동패턴 학습을 위한 궤환 모듈라 네트워크)

  • Kim, Seong-Joo;Choi, Woo-Kyung;Kim, Yong-Min;Jeon, Hong-Tae
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.9-14
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    • 2004
  • Rational sense is affected by emotion. If we add the factor of estimated emotion by environment information into robots, we may get more intelligent and human-friendly robots. However, various sensory information and pattern classification are prescribed for robots to learn emotion so that the networks are suitable for the necessity of robots. Neural network has superior ability to extract character of system but neural network has defect of temporal cross talk and local minimum convergence. To solve the defects, many kinds of modular neural networks have been proposed because they divide a complex problem into simple several subproblems. The modular neural network, introduced by Jacobs and Jordan, shows an excellent ability of recomposition and recombination of complex work. On the other hand, the recurrent network acquires state representations and representations of state make the recurrent neural network suitable for diverse applications such as nonlinear prediction and modeling. In this paper, we applied recurrent network for the expert network in the modular neural network structure to learn data pattern based on emotional assessment. To show the performance of the proposed network, simulation of learning the environment and behavior pattern is proceeded with the real time implementation. The given problem is very complex and has too many cases to learn. The result will show the performance and good ability of the proposed network and will be compared with the result of other method, general modular neural network.

Determination of the Optimized Structure of Self-Organizing Map for the Rainfall-Runoff Analysis in Naju (나주지점의 강우-유출 해석을 위한 최적의 SOM 구조 결정)

  • Kim, Yong-Gu;Jin, Young-Hoon;Park, Sung-Chun;Jeong, Choen-Lee
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.41 no.10
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    • pp.995-1007
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    • 2008
  • Studies on modeling the rainfall-runoff relationship which shows nonlinear trend strongly use artificial neural networks theory not only for the prediction but also for the characteristics analysis of the data used by pattern classification. For the pattern classification, the results from Self-Organizing Map (SOM) mention that the map size and array for the SOM training have significantly influenced on the SOM performance. Since there is no deterministic method or theoretical equation to determine the number of rows and columns for the map size, hexagonal array is generally used for the map array. Therefore, this study present a determination of the optimized map structure for the rainfall-runoff analysis in Naju station considering the map size and array simultaneously which can represent the classified characterization of rainfall-runoff relationship. The result showed that the map size of 20$\times$16 hexagonal array with 8-clustered patterns was selected as an appropriate map structure for rainfall-runoff analysis in Naju station.

Analysis on Correlation between AE Parameters and Stress Intensity Factor using Principal Component Regression and Artificial Neural Network (주성분 회귀분석 및 인공신경망을 이용한 AE변수와 응력확대계수와의 상관관계 해석)

  • Kim, Ki-Bok;Yoon, Dong-Jin;Jeong, Jung-Chae;Park, Phi-Iip;Lee, Seung-Seok
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Nondestructive Testing
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.80-90
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    • 2001
  • The aim of this study is to develop the methodology which enables to identify the mechanical properties of element such as stress intensity factor by using the AE parameters. Considering the multivariate and nonlinear properties of AE parameters such as ringdown count, rise time, energy, event duration and peak amplitude from fatigue cracks of machine element the principal component regression(PCR) and artificial neural network(ANN) models for the estimation of stress intensity factor were developed and validated. The AE parameters were found to be very significant to estimate the stress intensity factor. Since the statistical values including correlation coefficients, standard mr of calibration, standard error of prediction and bias were stable, the PCR and ANN models for stress intensity factor were very robust. The performance of ANN model for unknown data of stress intensity factor was better than that of PCR model.

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Estimating Stability Indices from the MODIS Infrared Measurements over the Korean Peninsula (MODIS 적외 자료를 이용한 한반도 지역의 대기 안정도 지수 산출)

  • Park, Sung-Hee;Chung, Eui-Seok;Koenig, Marianne;Sohn, B.J.
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.22 no.6
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    • pp.469-483
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    • 2006
  • An algorithm was developed to estimate stability indices (SI) over the Korean peninsula using Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) infrared brightness temperatures (TBs). The SI is defined as the stability of the atmosphere in the hydrostatic equilibrium with respect to the vertical displacements and is used as an index for the potential severe storm development. Using atmosphere temperature and moisture profiles from Regional Data Assimilation and Prediction System (RDAPS) as initial guess data for a nonlinear physical relaxation method, K index (KI), KO Index (KO), lifted index (LI), and maximum buoyancy (MB) were estimated. A fast radiative transfer model, RTTOV-7, is utilized for reducing the computational burden related to the physical relaxation method. The estimated TBs from the radiative transfer simulation are in good agreement with observed MODIS TBs. To test usefulness for the short-term forecast of severe storms, the algorithm is applied to the rapidly developed convective storms. Compared with the SIs from the RDAPS forecasts and NASA products, the MODIS SI obtained in this research predicts the instability better over the pre-convection areas. Thus, it is expected that the nowcasting and short-term forecast can be improved by utilizing the algorithms developed in this study.

Effects of Porosity and Water Content on Thermal Conductivity of Soils (토양의 공극률 및 함수비가 열전도도에 미치는 영향)

  • Cha, Jang-Hwan;An, Sun-Joon;Koo, Min-Ho;Kim, Hyoung-Chan;Song, Yoon-Ho;Suh, Myoung-Seok
    • Journal of Soil and Groundwater Environment
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    • v.13 no.3
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    • pp.27-36
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    • 2008
  • This paper presents a comprehensive laboratory study that examines the effects of porosity, water content, density and grain size distribution on the thermal conductivity of soils which were sampled from 16 synoptic stations of Korea. The experimental results clearly demonstrate that porosity and water content are important parameters which strongly affect the thermal conductivity of soils. Soils with lower porosities and higher water contents have higher thermal conductivities. On the contrary, increase of the matrix density slightly increases the thermal conductivity, and grain size distribution hardly affects the thermal conductivity. Dry soils with the same porosity tend to have more scattered values of thermal conductivity than wet soils. Based on the experimental results, a multiple linear regression model and a nonlinear regression model, having two regression variables of porosity and water content, were presented to predict thermal conductivity. Both models show a high accuracy of prediction with $R^2$ values of 0.74 and 0.82, respectively. Thus, it is expected that the suggested empirical models can be used for predicting thermal conductivity of soils by measuring porosity and water content.