• 제목/요약/키워드: non-exponential distribution

검색결과 77건 처리시간 0.029초

장기 저장되는 일회성 시스템의 수명 관리 프로그램에 대한 연구 (A Study on Shelf-life Management Program of Long-term Storage One-shot System)

  • 박동인;심행근
    • 한국산학기술학회논문지
    • /
    • 제21권1호
    • /
    • pp.628-633
    • /
    • 2020
  • 본 논문에서는 일회성 시스템이 장기 저장되는 동안 수명을 관리하기 위한 프로그램에 대해 연구하였다. 일회성 시스템은 주로 장기간 저장 또는 비운용 상태로 유지되다 임무수행시 일회성으로 운용되는 특징이 있으며, 일회성에 해당하는 기능은 주로 화약과 같은 시효성 품목을 통해 발휘된다. 이러한 시효성 품목은 저장 기간이 경과됨에 따라 성능과 특성이 변화하는 품목으로서 장기 저장간 정상 상태를 유지하기 위한 수명 관리가 매우 중요하며, 체계적인 수명 관리를 위해서는 관리 기준 설정이 필요하다. 수명 관리 기준과 현재 신뢰도를 비교하여 수명연장을 결정하며, 차기 수명평가 시기를 결정하는 방법을 지수분포와 와이블분포별로 제시한다. 수명평가 결과 시험데이터를 지속적으로 누적하며 수명분포의 모수를 최신화하고 신뢰도 변화를 확인하여, 수명을 연장하거나 만료를 판정한다. 또한, 일회성 시스템인 K000 신관의 ASRP 시험데이터를 활용하여 제안된 수명 관리 프로그램에 따라 수명 관리가 어떻게 이뤄지게 되는지 적용 가능성을 확인하였다.

Lomax 분포의 형상모수에 근거한 소프트웨어 신뢰성 비용모형에 관한 연구 (A Software Reliability Cost Model Based on the Shape Parameter of Lomax Distribution)

  • 양태진
    • 한국정보전자통신기술학회논문지
    • /
    • 제9권2호
    • /
    • pp.171-177
    • /
    • 2016
  • 소프트웨어 개발과정에서 소프트웨어 신뢰성은 매우 중요한 이슈이다. 소프트웨어 고장분석을 위한 무한고장 비동질적인 포아송과정에서 고장발생률이 상수이거나, 단조 증가 또는 단조 감소하는 패턴을 가질 수 있다. 본 연구에서는 소프트웨어 제품 테스팅 과정에서 고장 수명분포의 형상모수를 고려한 소프트웨어 신뢰성 비용 모형에 대하여 연구 하였다. 소프트웨어 신뢰성 분야에서 많이 사용되는 Lomax-NHPP 신뢰 성장 모형에 대한 비용 비교 문제를 제시하였다. 소프트웨어 고장모형은 무한고장 비동질적인 포아송과정을 이용하고 모수추정법은 최우추정법을 이용 하였다. 따라서 본 논문에서는 형상모수를 고려한 소프트웨어 비용모형 분석을 위하여 소프트웨어 고장시간 자료를 적용하여 비교 분석하였다. 대용량 소프트웨어가 수정과 변경하는 과정에서 결함의 발생을 거의 피할 수 없는 상황이 현실이다. 신뢰성 요구를 만족하고 총비용을 최소화하는 상황이 최적방출시간이다. 경우에 따라서는 왜도와 첨도 측면에서 효율적인 카파분포, 지수화지수분포 등 업데이트된 분포에 대한 방출 시기 문제를 비교 분석하는 연구도 가치 있는 일이라 판단된다. 이 연구를 통하여 소프트웨어 개발자들은 최적방출시간과 경제적 개발 비용을 파악 하는데 도움을 줄 수 있으리라 사료 된다.

야전 치명고장자료를 이용한 함정전투체계 신뢰성 분석 및 활용 방안 (A Study of Reliability Analysis and Application on Naval Combat System Using Field Critical Failure Data)

  • 김영진;오현승;최봉완
    • 산업경영시스템학회지
    • /
    • 제39권4호
    • /
    • pp.49-59
    • /
    • 2016
  • Naval combat system developed in-country is progressing at an alarming rate since 2000. ROK navy will be achieved all vessels that have combat system in the near future. The importance of System Engineering and Integrated Logistics Support based on reliability analysis is increasing. However, reliability analysis that everyone trusted and recognized is not enough and applied practically for development of Defense Acquisition Program. In particular, Existing Reliability Analysis is focusing on reliability index (Mean Time Between Failure (MTBF) etc.) for policy decision of defense improvement project. Most of the weapon system acquisition process applying in the exponential distribution simply persist unreality due to memoryless property. Critical failures are more important than simple faults to ship's operator. There are no confirmed cases of reliability analysis involved with critical failure that naval ship scheduler and operator concerned sensitively. Therefore, this study is focusing on Mean Time To Critical Failure (MTTCF), reliability on specific time and Operational Readiness Float (ORF) requirements related to critical failure of Patrol Killer Guided missile (PKG) combat system that is beginning of naval combat system developed in-country. Methods of analysis is applied parametric and non-parametric statistical techniques. It is compared to the estimates and proposed applications. The result of study shows that parametric and non-parametric estimators should be applied differently depending on purpose of utilization based on test of normality. For the first time, this study is offering Reliability of ROK Naval combat system to stakeholders involved with defense improvement project. Decision makers of defense improvement project have to active support and effort in this area for improvement of System Engineering.

지수감쇠 기법을 이용한 반사경 손실측정 시스템의 오차특성 연구 (Study of the error chsracteristics in a mirror loss measurement system using an exqonential decay metod)

  • 조민식
    • 한국광학회지
    • /
    • 제12권2호
    • /
    • pp.77-82
    • /
    • 2001
  • 손실 200 ppm급과 30 ppm급인 두 종류의 시험 반사경을 대상으로, 지수감쇠 방법을 이용한 반사경 손실측정 시스템의 오차 특성이 조사되었다. 공진기 길이 떨림에 의한 공진기 감쇠신호의 지수함수 왜곡을 보상하기 위하여 감쇠신호 데이터 평균기법을 적용하였다. 감쇠신호 6개의 평균이 취해졌을 때 감쇠신호의 지수함수 곡선맞춤 오차개선이 뚜력시 관측되었으며 손실 200ppm급 시험 반사경의 경우 약 2.4배 손실 30ppm급 시험 반사경의 경우 약 1.3배의 반사경 손실 측정오차 개선효과를 얻을 수 있었다 시험 공진기에서의 일별(day-to-day) 반사경 손실측정 반복도 오차가 조사되었다. 손실 200ppm급 시험 반사경의 경우 약 5.0%, 30ppm급 시험 반사경의 경우 약 26.4%의 손실측정 반복도 오차가 관측되었다. 저손실 반사경 평가에서 확인된 낮은 감쇠신호 데이터 평균효과와 높은 손실측정 반복도 오차는 손실측정 시스템 자체의 측정오차 이외에 시험 반사경 표면의 불균일한 손실 공간분포와 주변 오염원 유입의 결과로 분석되었다 또한 공진기 길이 떨림의 크기와 공진기 길이 측정오차가 손실측정 시스템의 정확도에 미치는 영향을 계산을 통해 조사한 결과, 분해능 수 ppm 급 현재의 측정 시스템의 성능에 미칠수 있는 공진기 길이오차의 영향은 충분히 적은 것으로 확인되었다.

  • PDF

H-S 유동의 점성효과를 고려한 원심압축기 회전차내부의 준3차원 유동해석 (Quasi-3-Dimensional Analysis of Compressible Flow within a Blade Row Including Viscous Effect in H-S Flow)

  • 오종식;조강래
    • 대한기계학회논문집
    • /
    • 제18권12호
    • /
    • pp.3287-3296
    • /
    • 1994
  • For the numerical computation of three-dimensional compressible flow field within a blade row in a centrifugal compressor, a quasi 3-dimensional solver which combines a reversible B-B flow and an irreversible H-S flow using finite element methods was developed. In a reversible B-B flow, the governing coordinates are modified in order to be applied to any type of turbomachinery, and two kinds of stream functions are introduced in order to make the Kutta condition exactly satisfied. In an irreversible H-S flow, the changes of entropy in the irreversible governing equations are determined not by empirical source but by the theoretical treatment of dissipation forces. The dissipation forces are obtained from the distribution of shear stresses in the flow passage which are given from the wall shear stresses using the exponential functions. A more accurate quasi-3-dimensional solver is established where the effect of body forces is involved in the non-axisymmetric H-S flow. Some numerical results obtained from authors' previous studies for axial flow machines assure that the present method is able to predict well as long as the flow is subsonic and not under strong viscous effect.

강우 빈도와 마코프 연쇄의 상태모형에 의한 일 강우량 모의 (Daily Rainfall Simulation by Rainfall Frequency and State Model of Markov Chain)

  • 정영훈;김병식;김형수;심명필
    • 한국습지학회지
    • /
    • 제5권2호
    • /
    • pp.1-13
    • /
    • 2003
  • In Korea, most of the rainfalls have been concentrated in the flood season and the flood study has received more attention than low flow analysis. One of the reasons that the analysis of low flows has less attention is the lacks of the required data like daily rainfall and so we have used the stochastic processes such as pulse noise, exponential distribution, and state model of Markov chain for the rainfall simulation in short term such as daily. Especially this study will pay attention to the state model of Markov chain. The previous study had performed the simulation study by the state model without considerations of the flood and non-flood periods and without consideration of the frequency of rainfall for the period of a state. Therefore this study considers afore mentioned two cases and compares the results with the known state model. As the results, the RMSEs of the suggested and known models represent the similar results. However, the PRE(relative percentage error) shows the suggested model is better results.

  • PDF

다수의 고장 원인을 갖는 기기의 신뢰성 모형화 및 분석 (Reliability Modeling and Analysis for a Unit with Multiple Causes of Failure)

  • 백상엽;임태진;이창훈
    • 대한산업공학회지
    • /
    • 제21권4호
    • /
    • pp.609-628
    • /
    • 1995
  • This paper presents a reliability model and a data-analytic procedure for a repairable unit subject to failures due to multiple non-identifiable causes. We regard a failure cause as a state and assume the life distribution for each cause to be exponential. Then we represent the dependency among the causes by a Markov switching model(MSM) and estimate the transition probabilities and failure rates by maximum likelihood(ML) method. The failure data are incomplete due to masked causes of failures. We propose a specific version of EM(expectation and maximization) algorithm for finding maximum likelihood estimator(MLE) under this situation. We also develop statistical procedures for determining the number of significant states and for testing independency between state transitions. Our model requires only the successive failure times of a unit to perform the statistical analysis. It works well even when the causes of failures are fully masked, which overcomes the major deficiency of competing risk models. It does not require the assumption of stationarity or independency which is essential in mixture models. The stationary probabilities of states can be easily calculated from the transition probabilities estimated in our model, so it covers mixture models in general. The results of simulations show the consistency of estimation and accuracy gradually increasing according to the difference of failure rates and the frequency of transitions among the states.

  • PDF

Robust second-order rotatable designs invariably applicable for some lifetime distributions

  • Kim, Jinseog;Das, Rabindra Nath;Singh, Poonam;Lee, Youngjo
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
    • /
    • 제28권6호
    • /
    • pp.595-610
    • /
    • 2021
  • Recently a few articles have derived robust first-order rotatable and D-optimal designs for the lifetime response having distributions gamma, lognormal, Weibull, exponential assuming errors that are correlated with different correlation structures such as autocorrelated, intra-class, inter-class, tri-diagonal, compound symmetry. Practically, a first-order model is an adequate approximation to the true surface in a small region of the explanatory variables. A second-order model is always appropriate for an unknown region, or if there is any curvature in the system. The current article aims to extend the ideas of these articles for second-order models. Invariant (free of the above four distributions) robust (free of correlation parameter values) second-order rotatable designs have been derived for the intra-class and inter-class correlated error structures. Second-order rotatability conditions have been derived herein assuming the response follows non-normal distribution (any one of the above four distributions) and errors have a general correlated error structure. These conditions are further simplified under intra-class and inter-class correlated error structures, and second-order rotatable designs are developed under these two structures for the response having anyone of the above four distributions. It is derived herein that robust second-order rotatable designs depend on the respective error variance covariance structure but they are independent of the correlation parameter values, as well as the considered four response lifetime distributions.

Monitoring and control of multiple fraction laws with ring based composite structure

  • Khadimallah, Mohamed A.;Hussain, Muzamal;Naeem, Muhammad Nawaz;Taj, Muhammad;Tounsi, Abdelouahed
    • Advances in nano research
    • /
    • 제10권2호
    • /
    • pp.129-138
    • /
    • 2021
  • In present article, utilizing the Love shell theory with volume fraction laws for the cylindrical shells vibrations provides a governing equation for the distribution of material composition of material. Isotopic materials are the constituents of these rings. The position of a ring support has been taken along the radial direction. The Rayleigh-Ritz method with three different fraction laws gives birth to the shell frequency equation. Moreover, the effect of height- and length-to-radius ratio and angular speed is investigated. The results are depicted for circumferential wave number, length- and height-radius ratios with three laws. It is found that the backward and forward frequencies of exponential fraction law are sandwich between polynomial and trigonometric laws. It is examined that the backward and forward frequencies increase and decrease on increasing the ratio of height- and length-to-radius ratio. As the position of ring is enhanced for clamped simply supported and simply supported-simply supported boundary conditions, the frequencies go up. At mid-point, all the frequencies are higher and after that the frequencies decreases. The frequencies are same at initial and final stage and rust itself a bell shape. The shell is stabilized by ring supports to increase the stiffness and strength. Comparison is made for non-rotating and rotating cylindrical shell for the efficiency of the model. The results generated by computer software MATLAB.

Limit elastic speed analysis of rotating porous annulus functionally graded disks

  • Madan, Royal;Bhowmick, Shubhankar;Hadji, Lazreg;Tounsi, Abdelouahed
    • Steel and Composite Structures
    • /
    • 제42권3호
    • /
    • pp.375-388
    • /
    • 2022
  • In this work, limit elastic speed analysis of functionally graded porous rotating disks has been reported. The work proposes an effective approach for modeling the mechanical properties of a porous functionally graded rotating disk. Four different types of porosity models namely: uniform, symmetric, inner maximum, and outer maximum distribution are considered. The approach used is the variational principle, and the solution has been achieved using Galerkin's error minimization theory. The study aims to investigate the effect of grading indices, aspect ratio, porosity volume fraction, and porosity types on limit angular speed for uniform and variable disk geometries of constant mass. To validate the current study, finite element analysis has been used, and there is good agreement between the two methods. The study yielded a decrease in limit speed as grading indices and aspect ratio increase. The porosity volume fraction is found to be more significant than the aspect ratio effect. The research demonstrates a range of operable speeds for porous and non-porous disk profiles that can be used in industries as design data. The results show a significant increase in limit speed for an exponential disk when compared to other disk profiles, and thus, the study demonstrates a range of FG-based structures for applications in industries that will not only save material (lightweight structures) but also improve overall performance.