• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.19 no.2
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• pp.39-54
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• 2013

Recent explosive increase of electronic commerce provides many advantageous purchase opportunities to customers. In this situation, customers who do not have enough knowledge about their purchases, may accept product recommendations. Product recommender systems automatically reflect user's preference and provide recommendation list to the users. Thus, product recommender system in online shopping store has been known as one of the most popular tools for one-to-one marketing. However, recommender systems which do not properly reflect user's preference cause user's disappointment and waste of time. In this study, we propose a novel recommender system which uses data mining and multi-model ensemble techniques to enhance the recommendation performance through reflecting the precise user's preference. The research data is collected from the real-world online shopping store, which deals products from famous art galleries and museums in Korea. The data initially contain 5759 transaction data, but finally remain 3167 transaction data after deletion of null data. In this study, we transform the categorical variables into dummy variables and exclude outlier data. The proposed model consists of two steps. The first step predicts customers who have high likelihood to purchase products in the online shopping store. In this step, we first use logistic regression, decision trees, and artificial neural networks to predict customers who have high likelihood to purchase products in each product group. We perform above data mining techniques using SAS E-Miner software. In this study, we partition datasets into two sets as modeling and validation sets for the logistic regression and decision trees. We also partition datasets into three sets as training, test, and validation sets for the artificial neural network model. The validation dataset is equal for the all experiments. Then we composite the results of each predictor using the multi-model ensemble techniques such as bagging and bumping. Bagging is the abbreviation of "Bootstrap Aggregation" and it composite outputs from several machine learning techniques for raising the performance and stability of prediction or classification. This technique is special form of the averaging method. Bumping is the abbreviation of "Bootstrap Umbrella of Model Parameter," and it only considers the model which has the lowest error value. The results show that bumping outperforms bagging and the other predictors except for "Poster" product group. For the "Poster" product group, artificial neural network model performs better than the other models. In the second step, we use the market basket analysis to extract association rules for co-purchased products. We can extract thirty one association rules according to values of Lift, Support, and Confidence measure. We set the minimum transaction frequency to support associations as 5%, maximum number of items in an association as 4, and minimum confidence for rule generation as 10%. This study also excludes the extracted association rules below 1 of lift value. We finally get fifteen association rules by excluding duplicate rules. Among the fifteen association rules, eleven rules contain association between products in "Office Supplies" product group, one rules include the association between "Office Supplies" and "Fashion" product groups, and other three rules contain association between "Office Supplies" and "Home Decoration" product groups. Finally, the proposed product recommender systems provides list of recommendations to the proper customers. We test the usability of the proposed system by using prototype and real-world transaction and profile data. For this end, we construct the prototype system by using the ASP, Java Script and Microsoft Access. In addition, we survey about user satisfaction for the recommended product list from the proposed system and the randomly selected product lists. The participants for the survey are 173 persons who use MSN Messenger, Daum Caf$\acute{e}$, and P2P services. We evaluate the user satisfaction using five-scale Likert measure. This study also performs "Paired Sample T-test" for the results of the survey. The results show that the proposed model outperforms the random selection model with 1% statistical significance level. It means that the users satisfied the recommended product list significantly. The results also show that the proposed system may be useful in real-world online shopping store.

• Journal of Korean Society of Disaster and Security
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• v.12 no.2
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• pp.73-82
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• 2019

Recently, as the occurrence frequency of sudden floods due to climate change increased, the flood damage on riverside social infrastructures was extended so that there has been a threat of overflow. Therefore, a rapid prediction of potential flooding in riverside social infrastructure is necessary for administrators. However, most current flood forecasting models including hydraulic model have limitations which are the high accuracy of numerical results but longer simulation time. To alleviate such limitation, data driven models using artificial neural network have been widely used. However, there is a limitation that the existing models can not consider the time-series parameters. In this study the water surface elevation of the Hangang River bridge was predicted using the NARX model considering the time-series parameter. And the results of the ANN and RNN models are compared with the NARX model to determine the suitability of NARX model. Using the 10-year hydrological data from 2009 to 2018, 70% of the hydrological data were used for learning and 15% was used for testing and evaluation respectively. As a result of predicting the water surface elevation after 3 hours from the Hangang River bridge in 2018, the ANN, RNN and NARX models for RMSE were 0.20 m, 0.11 m, and 0.09 m, respectively, and 0.12 m, 0.06 m, and 0.05 m for MAE, and 1.56 m, 0.55 m and 0.10 m for peak errors respectively. By analyzing the error of the prediction results considering the time-series parameters, the NARX model is most suitable for predicting water surface elevation. This is because the NARX model can learn the trend of the time series data and also can derive the accurate prediction value even in the high water surface elevation prediction by using the hyperbolic tangent and Rectified Linear Unit function as an activation function. However, the NARX model has a limit to generate a vanishing gradient as the sequence length becomes longer. In the future, the accuracy of the water surface elevation prediction will be examined by using the LSTM model.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.27 no.1
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• pp.65-82
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• 2021

Stock market investors are generally split into foreign investors, institutional investors, and individual investors. Compared to individual investor groups, professional investor groups such as foreign investors have an advantage in information and financial power and, as a result, foreign investors are known to show good investment performance among market participants. The purpose of this study is to propose an investment strategy that combines investor-specific transaction information and machine learning, and to analyze the portfolio investment performance of the proposed model using actual stock price and investor-specific transaction data. The Korea Exchange offers daily information on the volume of purchase and sale of each investor to securities firms. We developed a data collection program in C# programming language using an API provided by Daishin Securities Cybosplus, and collected 151 out of 200 KOSPI stocks with daily opening price, closing price and investor-specific net purchase data from January 2, 2007 to July 31, 2017. The self-organizing map model is an artificial neural network that performs clustering by unsupervised learning and has been introduced by Teuvo Kohonen since 1984. We implement competition among intra-surface artificial neurons, and all connections are non-recursive artificial neural networks that go from bottom to top. It can also be expanded to multiple layers, although many fault layers are commonly used. Linear functions are used by active functions of artificial nerve cells, and learning rules use Instar rules as well as general competitive learning. The core of the backpropagation model is the model that performs classification by supervised learning as an artificial neural network. We grouped and transformed investor-specific transaction volume data to learn backpropagation models through the self-organizing map model of artificial neural networks. As a result of the estimation of verification data through training, the portfolios were rebalanced monthly. For performance analysis, a passive portfolio was designated and the KOSPI 200 and KOSPI index returns for proxies on market returns were also obtained. Performance analysis was conducted using the equally-weighted portfolio return, compound interest rate, annual return, Maximum Draw Down, standard deviation, and Sharpe Ratio. Buy and hold returns of the top 10 market capitalization stocks are designated as a benchmark. Buy and hold strategy is the best strategy under the efficient market hypothesis. The prediction rate of learning data using backpropagation model was significantly high at 96.61%, while the prediction rate of verification data was also relatively high in the results of the 57.1% verification data. The performance evaluation of self-organizing map grouping can be determined as a result of a backpropagation model. This is because if the grouping results of the self-organizing map model had been poor, the learning results of the backpropagation model would have been poor. In this way, the performance assessment of machine learning is judged to be better learned than previous studies. Our portfolio doubled the return on the benchmark and performed better than the market returns on the KOSPI and KOSPI 200 indexes. In contrast to the benchmark, the MDD and standard deviation for portfolio risk indicators also showed better results. The Sharpe Ratio performed higher than benchmarks and stock market indexes. Through this, we presented the direction of portfolio composition program using machine learning and investor-specific transaction information and showed that it can be used to develop programs for real stock investment. The return is the result of monthly portfolio composition and asset rebalancing to the same proportion. Better outcomes are predicted when forming a monthly portfolio if the system is enforced by rebalancing the suggested stocks continuously without selling and re-buying it. Therefore, real transactions appear to be relevant.

• Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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• v.15 no.4
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• pp.113-132
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• 1999

Recently in Korea, application of the soil nailing is gradually extended to the sites of excavations and slopes having various ground conditions and field characteristics. Design of the soil nailing is generally carried out in two steps, The First step is to examine the minimum safety factor against a sliding of the reinforced nailed-soil mass based on the limit equilibrium approach, and the second step is to check the maximum displacement expected to occur at facing using the numerical analysis technique. However, design parameters related to the soil nailing system are so various that a reliable design method considering interrelationships between these design parameters is continuously necessary. Additionally, taking into account the anisotropic characteristics of in-situ grounds, disturbances in collecting the soil samples and errors in measurements, a systematic analysis of the field measurement data as well as a rational technique of the optimum design is required to improve with respect to economical efficiency. As a part of these purposes, in the present study, a procedure for the optimum design of a soil nailing excavation wall system is proposed. Focusing on a minimization of the expenses in construction, the optimum design procedure is formulated based on the genetic algorithm. Neural network theory is further adopted in predicting the maximum horizontal displacement at a shotcrete facing. Using the proposed procedure, various effects of relevant design parameters are also analyzed. Finally, an optimized design section is compared with the existing design section at the excavation site being constructed, in order to verify a validity of the proposed procedure.

• The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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• v.19 no.10
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• pp.2028-2042
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• 1994

Properly defining signal and noise in a self-organizing system like ART(Adaptive Resonance Theory) neural network model raises a number of subtle issues. Pattern context must enter the definition so that input features, treated as irrelevant noise when they are embedded in a given input pattern, may be treated as informative signals when they are embedded in a different input pattern. The ATR automatically self-scales their computational units to embody context and learning dependent definitions of a signal and noise and there is no problem in categorizing input pattern that have features similar in nature. However, when we have imput patterns that have features that are different in size and nature, the use of only one vigilance parameter is not enough to differentiate a signal from noise for a good categorization. For example, if the value fo vigilance parameter is large, then noise may be processed as an informative signal and unnecessary categories are generated: and if the value of vigilance parameter is small, an informative signal may be ignored and treated as noise. Hence it is no easy to achieve a good pattern categorization. To overcome such problems, a Coupled-ART neural network capable of modularized categorization of patterns is proposed. The Coupled-ART has two layer of tightly coupled modules. the upper and the lower. The lower layer processes the global features of a pattern and the structural features, separately in parallel. The upper layer combines the categorized outputs from the lower layer and categorizes the combined output, Hence, due to the modularized categorization of patterns, the Coupled-ART classifies patterns more efficiently than the ART1 model.

• The Sea:JOURNAL OF THE KOREAN SOCIETY OF OCEANOGRAPHY
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• v.21 no.1
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• pp.1-10
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• 2016

Currently available surface seawater partial pressure carbon dioxide ($pCO_2$) data sets in the East Sea are not enough to quantify statistically the carbon dioxide flux through the air-sea interface. To complement the scarcity of the $pCO_2$ measurements, we construct a neural network (NN) model based on satellite data to map $pCO_2$ for the areas, which were not observed. The NN model is constructed for the Ulleung Basin, where $pCO_2$ data are best available, to map and estimate the variability of $pCO_2$ based on in situ $pCO_2$ for the years from 2003 to 2012, and the sea surface temperature (SST) and chlorophyll data from the MODIS (Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) sensor of the Aqua satellite along with geographic information. The NN model was trained to achieve higher than 95% of a correlation between in situ and predicted $pCO_2$ values. The RMSE (root mean square error) of the NN model output was $19.2{\mu}atm$ and much less than the variability of in situ $pCO_2$. The variability of $pCO_2$ with respect to SST and chlorophyll shows a strong negative correlation with SST than chlorophyll. As SST decreases the variability of $pCO_2$ increases. When SST is lower than $15^{\circ}C$, $pCO_2$ variability is clearly affected by both SST and chlorophyll. In contrast when SST is higher than $15^{\circ}C$, the variability of $pCO_2$ is less sensitive to changes in SST and chlorophyll. The mean rate of the annual $pCO_2$ increase estimated by the NN model output in the Ulleung Basin is $0.8{\mu}atm\;yr^{-1}$ from 2003 to 2014. As NN model can successfully map $pCO_2$ data for the whole study area with a higher resolution and less RMSE compared to the previous studies, the NN model can be a potentially useful tool for the understanding of the carbon cycle in the East Sea, where accessibility is limited by the international affairs.

• Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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• v.34 no.5
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• pp.811-827
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• 2018

The purpose of this study is to compare machine learning algorithm and deep learning algorithm in crop classification using multi-temporal remote sensing data. For this, impacts of machine learning and deep learning algorithms on (a) hyper-parameter and (2) training sample size were compared and analyzed for Haenam-gun, Korea and Illinois State, USA. In the comparison experiment, support vector machine (SVM) was applied as machine learning algorithm and convolutional neural network (CNN) was applied as deep learning algorithm. In particular, 2D-CNN considering 2-dimensional spatial information and 3D-CNN with extended time dimension from 2D-CNN were applied as CNN. As a result of the experiment, it was found that the hyper-parameter values of CNN, considering various hyper-parameter, defined in the two study areas were similar compared with SVM. Based on this result, although it takes much time to optimize the model in CNN, it is considered that it is possible to apply transfer learning that can extend optimized CNN model to other regions. Then, in the experiment results with various training sample size, the impact of that on CNN was larger than SVM. In particular, this impact was exaggerated in Illinois State with heterogeneous spatial patterns. In addition, the lowest classification performance of 3D-CNN was presented in Illinois State, which is considered to be due to over-fitting as complexity of the model. That is, the classification performance was relatively degraded due to heterogeneous patterns and noise effect of input data, although the training accuracy of 3D-CNN model was high. This result simply that a proper classification algorithms should be selected considering spatial characteristics of study areas. Also, a large amount of training samples is necessary to guarantee higher classification performance in CNN, particularly in 3D-CNN.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.20 no.3
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• pp.262-276
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• 2018

Models to predict Leaf Wetness Duration (LWD) were evaluated using the observed meteorological and dew data at the 11 citrus orchards in Jeju, South Korea from 2016 to 2017. The sensitivity and the prediction accuracy were evaluated with four models (i.e., Number of Hours of Relative Humidity (NHRH), Classification And Regression Tree/Stepwise Linear Discriminant (CART/SLD), Penman-Monteith (PM), Deep-learning Neural Network (DNN)). The sensitivity of models was evaluated with rainfall and seasonal changes. When the data in rainy days were excluded from the whole data set, the LWD models had smaller average error (Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) about 1.5hours). The seasonal error of the DNN model had the similar magnitude (RMSE about 3 hours) among all seasons excluding winter. The other models had the greatest error in summer (RMSE about 9.6 hours) and the lowest error in winter (RMSE about 3.3 hours). These models were also evaluated by the statistical error analysis method and the regression analysis method of mean squared deviation. The DNN model had the best performance by statistical error whereas the CART/SLD model had the worst prediction accuracy. The Mean Square Deviation (MSD) is a method of analyzing the linearity of a model with three components: squared bias (SB), nonunity slope (NU), and lack of correlation (LC). Better model performance was determined by lower SB and LC and higher NU. The results of MSD analysis indicated that the DNN model would provide the best performance and followed by the PM, the NHRH and the CART/SLD in order. This result suggested that the machine learning model would be useful to improve the accuracy of agricultural information using meteorological data.

• Management & Information Systems Review
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• v.36 no.4
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• pp.33-51
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• 2017

With the advent of 'The Forth Industrial Revolution' and the growing demand for quality of life due to economic growth, needs for the quality of medical services are increasing. Artificial intelligence has been introduced in the medical field, but it is rarely used in chronic skin diseases that directly affect the quality of life. Also, atopic dermatitis, a representative disease among chronic skin diseases, has a disadvantage in that it is difficult to make an objective diagnosis of the severity of lesions. The aim of this study is to establish an intelligent severity recognition model of atopic dermatitis for improving the quality of patient's life. For this, the following steps were performed. First, image data of patients with atopic dermatitis were collected from the Catholic University of Korea Seoul Saint Mary's Hospital. Refinement and labeling were performed on the collected image data to obtain training and verification data that suitable for the objective intelligent atopic dermatitis severity recognition model. Second, learning and verification of various CNN algorithms are performed to select an image recognition algorithm that suitable for the objective intelligent atopic dermatitis severity recognition model. Experimental results showed that 'ResNet V1 101' and 'ResNet V2 50' were measured the highest performance with Erythema and Excoriation over 90% accuracy, and 'VGG-NET' was measured 89% accuracy lower than the two lesions due to lack of training data. The proposed methodology demonstrates that the image recognition algorithm has high performance not only in the field of object recognition but also in the medical field requiring expert knowledge. In addition, this study is expected to be highly applicable in the field of atopic dermatitis due to it uses image data of actual atopic dermatitis patients.

• The Korean Journal of Nuclear Medicine
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• v.38 no.3
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• pp.233-240
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• 2004

Purpose: We developed a computer-aided classifier using artificial neural network (ANN) to discriminate the cerebral metabolic pattern of medial and lateral temporal lobe epilepsy (TLE). Materials and Methods: We studied brain F-18-FDG PET images of 113 epilepsy patients sugically and pathologically proven as medial TLE (left 41, right 42) or lateral TLE (left 14, right 16). PET images were spatially transformed onto a standard template and normalized to the mean counts of cortical regions. Asymmetry indices for predefined 17 mirrored regions to hemispheric midline and those for medial and lateral temporal lobes were used as input features for ANN. ANN classifier was composed of 3 independent multi-layered perceptrons (1 for left/right lateralization and 2 for medial/lateral discrimination) and trained to interpret metabolic patterns and produce one of 4 diagnoses (L/R medial TLE or L/R lateral TLE). Randomly selected 8 images from each group were used to train the ANN classifier and remaining 51 images were used as test sets. The accuracy of the diagnosis with ANN was estimated by averaging the agreement rates of independent 50 trials and compared to that of nuclear medicine experts. Results: The accuracy in lateralization was 89% by the human experts and 90% by the ANN classifier Overall accuracy in localization of epileptogenic zones by the ANN classifier was 69%, which was comparable to that by the human experts (72%). Conclusion: We conclude that ANN classifier performed as well as human experts and could be potentially useful supporting tool for the differential diagnosis of TLE.