• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
• /
• 2020.06a
• /
• pp.135-135
• /
• 2020

우리나라의 기후 자료는 일반적으로 기상청에서 발표하는 종관기상관측(ASOS)과 방재기상관측(AWS), 그리고 북한이 세계기상기구(WMO, World Meteorogical Organization)의 기상통신망(GTS)을 통해 보낸 북한기상관측(NKO)을 사용 할 수 있다. 그러나 이 중 40년 이상의 완전한 관측 자료를 얻을 수 있는 건 ASOS가 유일하지만 공간적인 표현에 한계를 갖고 있다. AWS는 관측소가 많다는 장점이 있지만 관측 기간이 길지 않고 이용 가능한 기간에도 관측이 연속적이지 못한 경우가 많다. NKO는 비록 27개의 관측소가 있지만 많은 데이터가 누락되어 일별 기후자료의 사용에 한계를 갖고 있다. 이러한 미관측 기간이나 관측 자료의 누락은 연속적인 시계열 자료분석을 기반으로 하는 수자원 모델링에 있어서 문제를 야기한다. 본 연구는 1973년부터 2019년까지 47년의 신뢰도 높은 한반도 일일 기후 자료를 구축하기 위해 다양한 방법론을 비교하였다. 추정에 사용한 방법은 총 7개로 EM algorithm for probabilistic principal components (PPCA-EM), Inverse distance weight method (IDWM), Nearest neighbor method (NNM), Multivariate normal copulas (Copula), Elastic net model (Elastic), Ordinary kriging (OK), Regularized principal components with EM algorithm (RPCA-EM)를 살펴보았다. 다양한 형태의 결측치를 가정하여 그 결과값을 비교하였고 이는 Root mean squared error(RMSE), Kling-Gupta efficiency(KGE), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency(NSE)를 통해 평가하였다. 최종 선택된 방법론을 통하여 한반도 전역을 그리드 기반의 강수 및 최저온도/최고온도의 일별자료로 생성하였다.

• Smart Structures and Systems
• /
• v.32 no.1
• /
• pp.61-81
• /
• 2023

This study presents an ensemble learning based Bayesian model updating approach for structural damage diagnosis. In the developed framework, the structure is initially decomposed into a set of substructures. The autoregressive moving average (ARMAX) model is established first for structural damage localization based structural motion equation. The wavelet packet decomposition is utilized to extract the damage-sensitive node energy in different frequency bands for constructing structural surrogate models. Four methods, including Kriging predictor (KRG), radial basis function neural network (RBFNN), support vector regression (SVR), and multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), are selected as candidate structural surrogate models. These models are then resampled by bootstrapping and combined to obtain an ensemble model by probabilistic ensemble. Meanwhile, the maximum entropy principal is adopted to search for new design points for sample space updating, yielding a more robust ensemble model. Through the iterations, a framework of surrogate ensemble learning based model updating with high model construction efficiency and accuracy is proposed. The specificities of the method are discussed and investigated in a case study.

• Economic and Environmental Geology
• /
• v.38 no.4 s.173
• /
• pp.435-450
• /
• 2005

The purpose of the study is to analyze the hydrogeochemical characteristics by multivariate statistical method, to interpret the hydrogeochemical processes for the new variables calculated from principal components analysis (PCA), and to infer the groundwater flow and circulation mechanism by applying the geostatistical methods for each element and principal component. Chloride and nitrate are the most influencing components for groundwater quality, and the contents of $NO_3$ increased by the input of agricultural activities show the largest variation. The results of PCA, a multivariate statistical method, show that the first three principal components explain $73.9\%$ of the total variance. PC1 indicates the increase of dissolved ions, PC2 is related with the dissolution of carbonate minerals and nitrate contamination, and PC3 shows the effect of cation exchange process and silicate mineral dissolution. From the results of experimental semivariogram, the components of groundwater are divided into two groups: one group includes electrical conductivity (EC), Cl, Na, and $NO_3$, and the other includes $HCO_3,\;SiO_2,$ Ca, and Sr. The results for spatial distribution of groundwater components showed that EC, Cl, and Na increased with approaching the coastal line and nitrate has close relationship with the presence of agricultural land. These components are also correlated with the topographic features reflecting the groundwater recharge effect. The kriging analysis by using principal components shows that PC 1 has the different spatial distribution of Cl, Na, and EC, possibly due to the influence of pH, Ca, Sr, and $HCO_3$ for PC1. It was considered that the linear anomaly zone of PC2 in western area was caused by the dissolution of carbonate mineral. Consequently, the application of multivariate and geostatistical methods for groundwater in the study area is very useful for determining the quantitative analysis of water quality data and the characteristics of spatial distribution.

• Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
• /
• v.37 no.6_1
• /
• pp.1739-1756
• /
• 2021

Atmospheric nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) is mainly caused by anthropogenic emissions. It contributes to the formation of secondary pollutants and ozone through chemical reactions, and adversely affects human health. Although ground stations to monitor NO₂ concentrations in real time are operated in Korea, they have a limitation that it is difficult to analyze the spatial distribution of NO₂ concentrations, especially over the areas with no stations. Therefore, this study conducted a comparative experiment of spatial interpolation of NO₂ concentrations based on two linear-regression methods(i.e., multi linear regression (MLR), and regression kriging (RK)), and two machine learning approaches (i.e., random forest (RF), and support vector regression (SVR)) for the year of 2020. Four approaches were compared using leave-one-out-cross validation (LOOCV). The daily LOOCV results showed that MLR, RK, and SVR produced the average daily index of agreement (IOA) of 0.57, which was higher than that of RF (0.50). The average daily normalized root mean square error of RK was 0.9483%, which was slightly lower than those of the other models. MLR, RK and SVR showed similar seasonal distribution patterns, and the dynamic range of the resultant NO₂ concentrations from these three models was similar while that from RF was relatively small. The multivariate linear regression approaches are expected to be a promising method for spatial interpolation of ground-level NO₂ concentrations and other parameters in urban areas.