• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.29 no.4
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• pp.581-594
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• 2016

We introduce innovations state space exponential smoothing models (ISS-ESM) that can analyze time series with multiple seasonal patterns. Especially, in order to control complex structure existing in the multiple patterns, the model equations use a matrix consisting of seasonal updating parameters. It enables us to group the seasonal parameters according to their similarity. Because of the grouped parameters, we can accomplish the principle of parsimony. Further, the ISS-ESM can potentially accommodate any number of multiple seasonal patterns. The models are applied to predict electricity demand in Korea that is observed on hourly basis, and we compare their performance with that of the traditional exponential smoothing methods. It is observed that the ISS-ESM are superior to the traditional methods in terms of the prediction and the interpretability of seasonal patterns.

• Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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• v.45 no.3
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• pp.319-341
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• 2010

The purposes of this study are to classify heavy snowfall types in the Republic of Korea based on fresh snowfall data and atmospheric circulation data during the last 36(1973/74-2008/09) snow seasons and to identify typical surface synoptic climate patterns that characterize each heavy snowfall type. Four synoptic climate categories and seventeen regional heavy snowfall types are classified based on sea level pressure/surface wind vector patterns in East Asia and frequent spatial clustering patterns of heavy snowfall in the Republic of Korea, respectively. Composite analyses of multiple surface synoptic weather charts demonstrate that the locations and intensity of pressure/wind vector mean and anomaly cores in East Asia differentiate each regional heavy snowfall type in Korea. These differences in synoptic climatic fields are primarily associated with the surge of the Siberian high pressure system and the appearance of low pressure systems over the Korean Peninsula. In terms of hemispheric atmospheric circulation, synoptic climatic patterns in the negative mode of winter Arctic Oscillation (AO) are also associated with frequent heavy snowfall in the Republic of Korea at seasonal scales. These results from long-term synoptic climatic data could contribute to improvement of short-range or seasonal prediction of regional heavy snowfall.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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• v.25 no.7
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• pp.920-926
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• 2019

In this study, we analyzed the erosion variation of beach area at Haeundae Beach after coastal improvement project using video monitoring system operated by the Coastal Erosion Monitoring (Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries). Haeundae Beach was well maintained and stabilized following large scale nourishment through coastal improvement project despite of seasonal fluctuations. However, multiple typhoons over the last two years caused beach stabilization patterns and seasonal fluctuations to lost equilibrium, resulting in rapid erosion. In particular, the sandy beach was eroded by typhoon Solic and Kongray in 2018 and failed to recover beach area in winter by seasonal fluctuations. And due to multiple typhoons in 2019, the beach area was reduced 9.5 % (12,607 ㎡) year-on-year. According to analyze the observed wave and beach area data in Haeundae, the tendency of erosion and sedimentation was influenced by seasonal incident wave direction for each section(west, center and east part). Therefore, to identify the causes of decreasing seasonal fluctuation characteristics and continuous erosion, hereafter, more precise monitoring of different factors are needed, such as the crest heights of submerged breakwater and its loss of function, and sand leakage to the outside around submerged breakwater.

• Journal of Korean Society for Atmospheric Environment
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• v.14 no.6
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• pp.631-642
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• 1998

Fall-out particles were collected by the modified British deposit gauges at 35 sampling sites in Suwon area from January to November, 1996. Twenty chemical species (Al. Ba, Cd, Cr, K, Pb, Sb, Zn, Cu, Fe, Ni, V, F-, Cl-, NO3-, 5042-, Na+, NH4+, Mg2+, and Ca2+) were analyzed by AAS and If. The purposes of this study were to estimate qualitatively various emission sources of the fell-out particle by applying multivariate statistical techniques such as factor analysis, multiple regression analysis, and discriminant analysis. During the study, outlier sites were determined by a z-score method. Cl-, Na+, Mg2+, and SO42- were highly correlated due to their common marine related source. Wind speed was the most influential factor for the deposition fluxes of the particle itself and all the chemical species as well. When applying the factor analysis, 8 source patterns were qualitatively obtained, such as marine source, soil source, oil burning source, Cr related source, tire source, Cd related source, agriculture source, and F- related source. As a result of the multiple regression analysis, we could suggest that some chemical compounds may possibly exist in the form of CaSO4, NaN03, NaCl, MgC12, (NH4)2SO4, NaF, and CaCl2 in the fall-out particles. Finally, spatial and seasonal classification study performed by a discriminant analysis showed th.at SO42-, Ca2+, Cl-, and Fe were dominant in the group of spatial pattern; however, SO42-, Cl-, Al, and V were in the group of seasonal pattern.

• Journal of Korean Society for Atmospheric Environment
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• v.14 no.1
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• pp.11-23
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• 1998

The purpose of this study was to survey chemical distribution of inorganic elements and ions in the submicron particles, to characterize qualitatively emitting sources by factor analysis, and finally to reveal existing patterns in terms of chemical compounds by a stepwise multiple regression analysis. Total of 141 samples were collected by a cascade impactor from 1989 to1996. Fifteen chemical species (Al, Ba, Cd, K, Pb, Cu, Fe, Ni, $Cl^-, NO_3^-, SO_4^{2-}, K^+, Mg^{2+}, Ca^{2+}, and Na^+$) were characterized by AAS and IC. The study showed that average seasonal levels of submicron particulate matters $(d_p<0.43 \mum)$ were 18.7 $\mug/m^3$ in spring, 15.5 $\mug/m^3$ in summer, 15.7 $\mug/m^3$ in fall, and 24.5 $\mug/m^3$ in winter, respectively. All of the anion concentrations in the particle were highest in the winter season. By applying a factor analysis, 5 source patterns were qualitatively obtained, such as sulfate related source, nitrate related source, oil burning source, calcium related source, and coal combustion source. Finally, when applying a stepwise multiple regression analysis, the results clearly showed that $Na^+ and Ca^{2+}, K^+ and Ca^{2+}, NO_3^-$ and relative humidity, $Cl^-$ and ambient temperature, $Ca^{2+} and Cl^-, Mg^{2+} and SO_4^{2-}, Na^+ and NO_3^-, and Ca^{2+} and NO_3^-$, respectively, are negatively contributed to each other. As a result of those statistical analysis, we could suggest that some chemical compounds in the submicron particles such as$NaNO_3, MgSO_4, Ca(NO_3)_2, and CaCl_2$ may not exist on the filter as final composing products; however, other compounds may possibly exist in the form of $Mg(NO_3)_2, CaSO_4, Na_2SO_4, K_2SO_4, MgCl_2, NaCl, and KCl$. Thus, it must be necessary to identify differences between the results of above statistical analysis and of the real world by laboratory experiments.

• Journal of the Korean earth science society
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• v.34 no.4
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• pp.336-344
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• 2013

This study has developed a multiple linear regression model (MLRM) for the seasonal prediction of the summer tropical cyclone genesis frequency (TCGF) over the western North Pacific (WNP) using the four teleconnection patterns. These patterns are representative of the Siberian high Oscillation (SHO) in the East Asian continent, the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) in the North Pacific, Antarctic oscillation (AAO) near Australia, and the circulation in the equatorial central Pacific during the boreal spring (April-May). This statistical model is verified by analyzing the differences hindcasted for the high and low TCGF years. The high TCGF years are characterized by the following anomalous features: four anomalous teleconnection patterns such as anticyclonic circulation (positive SHO phase) in the East Asian continent, pressure pattern like north-high and south-low in the North Pacific, and cyclonic circulation (positive AAO phase) near Australia, and cyclonic circulation in the Nino3.4 region were strengthened during the period from boreal spring to boreal summer. Thus, anomalous trade winds in the tropical western Pacific (TWP) were weakened by anomalous cyclonic circulations that located in the subtropical western Pacific (SWP) in both hemispheres. Consequently, this spatial distribution of anomalous pressure pattern suppressed convection in the TWP, strengthened convection in the SWP instead.

• Journal of the Korean earth science society
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• v.45 no.3
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• pp.203-213
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• 2024

This study aimed to investigate the seasonal patterns of multiple bar formation in summer and flattening in winter on the macrotidal Sinduri beach in Taean, and to understand the processes their formation and subsequent flattening. Beach profiling has been conducted regularly over the last four years using a VRS-GPS system. Surface sediment samples were collected seasonally along the transectline, and grain size analyses were performed. Tidal current data were acquired using a TIDOS current observation system during both winter and summer. The Sinduri macrotidal beach consists of two geomorphic units: an upper high-gradient beach face and a lower gentler sloped intertidal zone. High berms and beach cusps did not develop on this beach face. The approximately 400-m-wide intertidal zone comprises distinct 2-5 lines of multiple bars. Mean grain sizes of sand bars range from 2.0 to 2.75 phi, corresponding to fine sands. Mean sizes show shoreward coarsening trend. Regular beach-profiling survey revealed that the summer profile has a multi-barred morphology with a maximum of five bar lines, whereas, the winter profile has a non-barred, flat morphology. The non-barred winter profiles likely result from flattening by scour-and-fill processes during winter. The growth of multiple bars in summer is interpreted to be formed by a break-point mechanism associated with moderate waves and the translation of tide levels, rather than the standing wave hypothesis, which is stationary at high tide. The break-point hypothesis for multi-bars is supported by the presence of the largest bar at mean sea-level, shorter bar spacing toward the shore, irregular bar spacing, strong asymmetry of bars, and the 10-30 m shoreward migration of multi-bars.

• Journal of the Korean Home Economics Association
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• v.37 no.11
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• pp.139-156
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• 1999

Food choice is influenced by many factors including physical, social, psychological and food technological developments. This research is based on the survey on Puchon housewives dietary culture according to season and special occasions and the current consumption pattern of traditional fermented foods. The objective is to find out the current consumption and to use this data as the principal element needed to explore changes in consumption patterns and to uphold and develop the consumption of traditional fermented food. Questionnaires were collected 282 housewives in Puchon city. Data were analysed with SAS software package for t-test, F-test and Duncan’s multiple range test. Results of relationship between dietary culture of Puchon housewives and consumption patterns of traditional fermented food items; 1. If we look at seasonal foods, Puchon housewives responded that they normally prepare traditional foods for such special occasions as Chusok(89%), New Year(84%) and January full moon Day(77%). For family celebrations, they cook on their in-laws birthdays(91%), their husbands birthday(84%), childrens birthdays(73%) and their own birthday(32%). They also responded that they eat out on their own birthday(41%), on Christmas Day(19%), on childrens birthdays(17%) and on their husbands birthday(11%). 2. If we look at the age of housewives and their dietary culture, more young housewives tend to eat out on their own, their husbands and their childrens birthdays. As for their educational background, less educated housewives tend to prepare flood at home on New Years Day, while more educated housewives would eat out on their own birthdays. As for the type of family, mere housewives in nucleus families eat out on Christmas Days compared to those in extended families. Also, those in extended families tend to make food at home rather than eating out on their own birthdays. In case of the husbands birthday, there was some difference according to family income (p<0.03).

• Journal of Korean Society for Atmospheric Environment
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• v.32 no.1
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• pp.114-126
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• 2016

Many cohort studies have reported associations of individual-level long-term exposures to $PM_{10}$ and health outcomes. Individual exposures were often estimated by using exposure prediction models relying on $PM_{10}$ data measured at national regulatory monitoring sites. This study explored spatial and temporal characteristics of regulatory $PM_{10}$ measurement data in South Korea and suggested $PM_{10}$ concentration metrics as long-term exposures for assessing health effects in cohort studies. We obtained hourly $PM_{10}$ data from the National Institute of Environmental Research for 2001~2012 in South Korea. We investigated spatial distribution of monitoring sites using the density and proximity in each of the 16 metropolitan cities and provinces. The temporal characteristics of $PM_{10}$ measurement data were examined by annual/seasonal/diurnal patterns across urban background monitoring sites after excluding Asian dust days. For spatial characteristics of $PM_{10}$ measurement data, we computed coefficient of variation (CV) and coefficient of divergence (COD). Based on temporal and spatial investigation, we suggested preferred long-term metrics for cohort studies. In 2010, 294 urban background monitoring sites were located in South Korea with a site over an area of $415.0km^2$ and distant from another site by 31.0 km on average. Annual average $PM_{10}$ concentrations decreased by 19.8% from 2001 to 2012, and seasonal $PM_{10}$ patterns were consistent over study years with higher concentrations in spring and winter. Spatial variability was relatively small with 6~19% of CV and 21~46% of COD across 16 metropolitan cities and provinces in 2010. To maximize spatial coverage and reflect temporal and spatial distributions, our suggestion for $PM_{10}$ metrics representing long-term exposures was the average for one or multiple years after 2009. This study provides the knowledge of all available $PM_{10}$ data measured at national regulatory monitoring sites in South Korea and the insight of the plausible longterm exposure metric for cohort studies.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.5 no.2
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• pp.55-72
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• 1987

The work analyzes the existing situation and defines special problems concerning traffic accidents in the two countries. The report is divided into three parts: 1) Using the global approach of SMEED, the data were evaluated using multiple regression analysis, and homogeneous groups of countries were defined by cluster analysis. In the global approach, the linear model is better than SMEED's non-linear model in explaining the number of fatalities. Among the different groups of countries, the linear approach was found to be better suited for industrialized countries and the non-linear approach better for the developing countries. T도 comparison of traffic fatality data for the Federal Republic the developing countries. The comparison of traffic fatality data for the Federal Republic of Germany and the Republic of Korea showed different regression equations during the same time period. 2) The BOX/JENKINS time series analysis on a monthly basis points out clearly similar seasonal patterns for the two countries over the years studied. The decrease in traffic accidents following the intensification of the safety belt requirement was proved in the ARIMA model. It amounts to 7 to 8 percent fewer personal injury accidents and fatal accidents. The identified increase in safety in the Federal Republic of Germany since the 1970s is mainly due to the reduction of accident severity in residential areas. 3) Speeds and headways on motorways in th3e two countries were also compared. The measurements point out that German road users drive faster, take more risks, and accept shorter time gaps than Korean road users. However, the accident statistics show accident rates for Korea that are several times higher than those in the Federal Republic of Germany.