• Korean Management Science Review
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• v.19 no.2
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• pp.125-137
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• 2002

The telecommunications market is expanding rapidly and becoming more substitutive. In this environment, demand forecasting is very difficult, yet important for both practitioners and researchers. in this paper, we adopt the modeling approach proposed dy Jun and Park ［6］. The basic premise is that demand patterns result from choice behavior, where customers choose a product to maximize their utility. We apply a choice-based substitutive diffusion model to the Korean mobile telecommunication service market where digital service has completely replaced analog service. In comparison with Bass-type multigeneration models. our model provides superior fitting and forecasting performance. The choice-based model is useful in that it enables the description of such complicated environments and provides the flexibility to include marketing mix variables such as price and advertising in the regression analysis.

• Proceedings of the Korea Environmental Mutagen Society Conference
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• 2004.05a
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• pp.82-82
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• 2004

• The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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• v.10 no.5
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• pp.113-123
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• 2011

Recently, the global warming problem has arised around world, many nations has set up a various regulations for decreasing $CO_2$. In particular, $CO_2$ emissions reduction effect is very powerful in transport part, so there is a rising interest about development of green car, or electric vehicle in auto industry. For this reason, it is important to make a strategy for charging infra and forcast electric power demand, but it hasn't introduced about demand forecasting electric vehicle. Thus, this paper presents a demand forecasting for electric vehicles using choice based multigeneration diffusion model. In this paper, it estimates innovation coefficient, immitation coefficient in Bass model by using hybrid car market data and forecast electric vehicle market by year using potential demand market through SP(Stated Preference) experiment. Also, It facilitates more accurate demand forecasting electric vehicle market refelcting multigeneration diffusion model in accordance with attribute progress in development of electric vehicle. Through demand forecasting methodology in this paper, it can be utilized power supply and building a charging infra in the future.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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• 2022.11a
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• pp.162-163
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• 2022

Maritime transportation is going to transfer to alternative fuels as a result of the worldwide demands toward decarbonization and tougher maritime emissions regulations. Methanol is considered as a potential marine fuel, which has the ability to reduce SOx and CO₂ emissions, reduce climate change effects, and achieve the objective of green shipping. This work proposes and combines the innovative combination system of direct methanol solid oxide fuel cells (SOFC), proton exchange membrane fuel cells (PEMFC), gas turbines (GT), and organic Rankine cycles (ORC) for maritime vessels. The system's primary power source is the SOFC, while the GT and PEMFC use the waste heat from the SOFC to generate useful power and improve the system's ability to use waste heat. Each component's thermodynamics model and the combined system's model are established and examined. The multigeneration system's energy and exergy efficiency are 76.2% and 30.3%, respectively. When compared to a SOFC stand-alone system, the energy efficiency of the GT and PEMFC system is increased by 19.2%. The use of PEMFC linked SOFC has significant efficiency when a ship is being started or maneuvered and a quick response from the power and propulsion plant is required.

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.47 no.2
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• pp.106-119
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• 2023

Due to global decarbonization movement and tightening of maritime emissions restrictions, the shipping industry is going to switch to alternative fuels. Among candidates of alternative fuel, methanol is promising for decreasing SOx and CO2 emissions, resulting in minimum climate change and meeting the goal of green shipping. In this study, a novel combined system of direct methanol solid oxide fuel cells (SOFC), proton exchange membrane fuel cells (PEMFC), gas turbine (GT), and organic Rankine cycle (ORC) targeted for marine vessels was proposed. The SOFC is the main power generator of the system, whereas the GT and PEMFC could recover waste heat from the SOFC to generate useful power and increase waste heat utilizing efficiency of the system. Thermodynamics model of the combined system and each component were established and analyzed. Energy and exergy efficiencies of subsystems and the entire system were estimated with participation of the first and second laws of thermodynamics. The energy and exergy efficiencies of the overall multigeneration system were estimated to be 76.2% and 30.3%, respectively. The combination of GT and PEMFC increased the energy efficiency by 18.91% compared to the SOFC stand-alone system. By changing the methanol distribution ratio from 0.05 to 0.4, energy and exergy efficiencies decreased by 15.49% and 5.41%, respectively. During the starting up and maneuvering period of vessels, a quick response from the power supply system and propulsion plant is necessary. Utilization of PEMFC coupled with SOFC has remarkable meaning and benefits.