• 제목/요약/키워드: moving average period

검색결과 106건 처리시간 0.025초

Effect of Repeated Public Releases on Cesarean Section Rates

  • Jang, Won-Mo;Eun, Sang-Jun;Lee, Chae-Eun;Kim, Yoon
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • 제44권1호
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    • pp.2-8
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    • 2011
  • Objectives: Public release of and feedback (here after public release) on institutional (clinics and hospitals) cesarean section rates has had the effect of reducing cesarean section rates. However, compared to the isolated intervention, there was scant evidence of the effect of repeated public releases (RPR) on cesarean section rates. The objectives of this study were to evaluate the effect of RPR for reducing cesarean section rates. Methods: From January 2003 to July 2007, the nationwide monthly institutional cesarean section rates data (1 951 303 deliveries at 1194 institutions) were analyzed. We used autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) time-series intervention models to assess the effect of the RPR on cesarean section rates and ordinal logistic regression model to determine the characteristics of the change in cesarean section rates. Results: Among four RPR, we found that only the first one (August 29, 2005) decreased the cesarean section rate (by 0.81 percent) and continued to have an impact period through the last observation in May 2007. Baseline cesarean section rates (OR, 4.7; 95% CI, 3.1 to 7.1) and annual number of deliveries (OR, 2.8; 95% CI, 1.6 to 4.7) of institutions in the upper third of each category at before first intervention had a significant contribution to the decrease of cesarean section rates. Conclusions: We could not found the evidence that RPR has had the significant effect of reducing cesarean section rates. Institutions with upper baseline cesarean section rates and annual number of deliveries were more responsive to RPR.

산림 사면에서 토양수분 실측 자료, 평형증발 및 에디-공분산방법을 이용한 토양증발비교 (Comparison of Soil Evaporation Using Equilibrium Evaporation, Eddy-Covariance and Surface Soil Moisture on the Forest Hillslope)

  • 곽용석;김상현;김수진
    • 한국환경과학회지
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    • 제22권1호
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    • pp.119-129
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    • 2013
  • We compared equilibrium evaporation($E_{equili}$) eddy-covariance($E_{eddy}$) with soil moisture data($E_{SMseries}$) which were measured with a 2 hours sampling interval at three points for a humid forest hillslope from May 5th to May 31th in 2009. Accumulations of $E_{eddy}$, $E_{equili}$ for the study period were estimated as 2.52, 3.28 mm and those of $E_{SMseries}$ were ranged from 1.91 to 2.88 mm. It suggested that the eddy-covariance method considering the spatial heterogeneity of soil evaporation is useful to evaluate the soil evaporation. Method A, B and C were proposed using mean meterological data and daily moisture variation and the computations were compared to eddy-covariance method and equilibrium evaporation. The methods using soil moisture data can describe the variations of soil evaporation from eddy-covariance through simple moving average analysis. Method B showed a good matched with eddy-covariance method. This indicated that Dry Surface Layer (DSL) at 14:00 which was used for method B is important variable for the evaluation of soil evaporation. The total equilibrium evaporation was not significantly different to those of the others. However, equilibrium evaporation showed a problem in estimating soil evaporation because the temporal tendency of $E_{equili}$ was not related with the those of the other methods. The improved understanding of the soil evaporation presented in this study will contribute to the understandings of water cycles in a forest hillslope.

암성통증환자의 통증완화법과 실태에 대한 연구 (The Clinical Evaluation in Cancer Pain Management)

  • 백승완;변병호;채명길
    • The Korean Journal of Pain
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    • 제11권2호
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    • pp.214-219
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    • 1998
  • Pain is one of the most frequent and disturbing symptom of cancer patients. And almost of cancer patients are afraid of a attacks of pain related to cancer. Caring for the cancer patient can be divided into two phases. The phase of "active treatment" involves various interventions-surgical, chemical or radiological- that are designed to prolong the patient's life. "Terminal care" is the period from the end of active treatment until the patient's death. But in the majority of clinical settings, cancer pain is not being managed adequately results from a lack of education about how to treat the cancer pain management in the safest and most effective way during terminal phase. Althought organic factors represent the most important cause of their pain, it is also important to deal with the patient's psychological reactions and to take account of his or her social and family environment if treatment for chronic cancer pain is to prove adequate. Thus we try to evaluate a kinds of cancer related to pain, degree of pain, effectiveness of drugs, and patient's responses to management. In regard to the satisfaction for pain relief in pain clinics at Pusan National University Hospital(PNUH) are about 70% in patients and 90% in family. Average life expectancy in cancer patients are about 140 days (3 days- 5.7 years). Cancer patients are complained of several discomfortness (above 30 kinds) such as, pain associated with cancer (75%), nausea and vomitting (38%), sleeping disorder (38%), anorexia (38%), dyspnea (32%), constipation (31%), etc. Distributions of cancer associated with pain are stomach cancer (21%), lung cancer (16%), cervix cancer (10%), anorectal and colon cancer (8.6%), hepatoma (8%), pancreatic cancer (3%). About 1/3 of patients are suffer from incident pain in 3~5 times in a day especially in moving, coughing, and exercise. Methods for drug delivering system before death are transdermal fentanyl patch (42%), intravenous PCA (21%), oral intake of opioid (17%), epidural PCA (14%), etc.

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울산지역의 기상 특성: 기온과 바람을 중심으로 (Meteorological Characteristics in the Ulsan Metropolitan Region: Focus on Air Temperature and Winds)

  • 오인보;방진희;김양호
    • 한국대기환경학회지
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    • 제31권2호
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    • pp.181-194
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    • 2015
  • Spatial-temporal meteorological features of the Ulsan metropolitan region (UMR) were analyzed using observations and high-resolution numerical modeling. Long-term trend analysis (1970~2013) showed a significant increase of $0.033^{\circ}Cyr^{-1}$ in the 5-year moving average temperature, although detailed short-term features varied, whereas wind speed and relative humidity over the same period displayed clear decreases of $-0.007ms^{-1}$ and $-0.29%yr^{-1}$, respectively. These trends indicate the effects of regional climate change and urbanization in the UMR. Seasonal variations averaged for the most recent three years, 2011~2013, showed that temperatures in three different regions (urban/industrial, suburban, coastal areas) of the UMR had similar seasonality, but significant differences among them were observed for a certain season. Urban and industrial complex regions were characterized by relatively higher temperatures with large differences (max.: $3.6^{\circ}C$) from that in the coastal area in summer. For wind speed, strong values in the range from 3.3 to $3.9ms^{-1}$ occurred in the coastal areas, with large differences clearly shown between the three regions in September and October. Diurnal variations of temperature were characterized by pronounced differences during the daytime (in summer) or nighttime (in winter) between the three regions. Results from the WRF modeling performed for four months of 2012 showed large variations in gridaverage temperature and winds in the UMR, which displayed significant changes by season. Especially, a clear temperature rise in the urban center was identified in July ($0.6^{\circ}C$ higher than nearby urban areas), and overall, relatively weak winds were simulated over urban and inland suburban regions in all seasons.

장기유출모의를 위한 수문시계열 예측모형의 적용성 평가 (Application to Evaluation of Hydrologic Time Series Forecasting for Long-Term Runoff Simulation)

  • 윤선권;안재현;김종석;문영일
    • 한국수자원학회논문집
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    • 제42권10호
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    • pp.809-824
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    • 2009
  • 한정된 기간의 짧은 유출량 기록을 갖는 댐 유역에서의 수자원 시스템 거동예측은 수문학적 지속성여부에 대한 판단이 선행 되어야 하며 가용한 시계열자료에 대한 추계학적 분석을 통하여 실시하여야 한다. 본 연구에서는 계절형 ARIMA모형을 통하여 안동댐 유역의 강우량, 증발량 및 유출량 시계열자료로 월별 수문시스템 거동을 예측하였으며, 예측된 결과를 토대로 TANK모형과 ARIMA+TANK결합모형에 의한 장기유출모의를 실시하였다. 분석결과 관측자료의 특성을 비교적 잘 반영 하였으며, 댐 유입량 예측을 위한 추계학적 결합모형의 적용가능성을 검토하였다. 이는 상대적으로 유출량자료의 보유년한이 짧은 대상유역의 시계열 수문인자 예측을 통한 유출모의의 적용으로 수자원의 중 장기 전략수립에 도움이 되리라 사료된다.

일반국토 상시 교통량자료를 이용한 교통량 결측자료 추정 (Missing Data Imputation Using Permanent Traffic Counts on National Highways)

  • 하정아;박재화;김성현
    • 대한교통학회지
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    • 제25권1호
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    • pp.121-132
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    • 2007
  • 일반국도의 상시조사 자료는 교통량 조사 장비를 통해 수집되며, 수집된 자료가 누락되거나 불량일 경우 통계자료의 객관성을 유지하기 위해서 보정을 해야 한다. 교통량 결측 자료의 보정을 통계적인 방법으로 접근하여 신뢰성을 높이고자 본 연구에서는 보정 대상 시간과 동일시간의 자료를 적용할 수 있는 자기회귀분석과 보정 대상 지점과 동일 지점의 자료를 적용할 수 있는 계절 시계열 분석을 이용하여 보정하는 방안을 제시하였다. 계절 시계열 분석을 적용하여 결측 자료를 보정한 결과, 결측 기간이 길어질수록 오차가 커지는 것으로 분석되었다. 이것은 단기예측의 경우 실제자료를 이용하여 예측 값을 제시하지만, 장기예측의 경우 예측된 자료를 이용하여 예측값을 제시하기 때문에 신뢰성이 떨어지기 때문이라 판단된다. 자기회귀분석을 적용하여 결측 자료를 보정한 결과, 시계열분석에 비해서 오차가 적은 것으로 분석되었다. 이것은 교통량자료는 과거 패턴보다 현재 시점의 영향을 더 많이 받는 것이기 때문이라 판단된다 하지만 자기회귀분석은 인근에 패턴이 유사한 지점이 있어야 가능하며, 인근에 유사한 지점이 있더라도 그 지점의 자료가 불량일 경우 보정이 불가능하다는 단점이 있다. 이러한 경우에는 과거자료를 이용해서 보정할 수밖에 없으며, 단기 결측의 경우에는 시계열분석을 이용할 수 있다.

96년 7월 한탄강유역 집중호우의 특성 분석 (Hydrometeorological Characteristics of the Heavy Storm of July, 1996 in the Hantan Basin)

  • 윤용남;김재형
    • 한국수자원학회논문집
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    • 제30권4호
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    • pp.389-399
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    • 1997
  • 1996년 7월 26일∼28일에 걸쳐 경기북부 및 강원영서 지방에 내린 기록적인 집중호우를 대사으로 연천댐 붕괴의 원인이 된 한탄강유역 호우의 수문기상학적 규모와 발생특성을 분석하였다. 한탄강유역 및 인군에 위치한 21개 우량관측소의 시간 우량자료를 수집하여 지점별, 지속시간별 누가우량곡선을 작성·비교함으로써 호우의 공간적 이동특성을 분석하였다. 또한, 연천댐유역에 내린 지속시간별 유역 평균 연속강우량을 철원 및 연천우량관측소의 빈도우량과 비교하였을 뿐 아니라, 이 지역의 지속시간별 가능최대수량(PMP)과도 비교함으로써 '96년 7월 호우가 이 지역에서는 기왕 최대기록 호우임을 입증하였다.

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동해 중부연안에 서식하는 대문어(Enteroctopus dofleini) 흘림낚시의 어획실태에 관한 연구 (Catch status of the giant pacific octopus, Enterocotpus dofleini, by drift line fishery in the central coast of the East Sea, Korea)

  • 서영일;이수정;양재형
    • 수산해양기술연구
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    • 제58권4호
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    • pp.310-316
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    • 2022
  • Giant pacific octopus, Enteroctopus dofleini, is a large mollusk distributed in the East Sea of Korea. In this study, the catch status of giant pacific octopus by drift line fishery and the effect of sea temperature on fishing ground were investigated in Goseong-gun, Gangwon-do, which is the central coast of the East Sea. The average catch of giant pacific octopus in Gangwon-do was 1,570 tons over the past ten years, and it accounted for 21% in 2008 and 44% in 2021 compared to the total catch in the East Sea during the same period. Such data indicates that the catch in Gangwon-do has recently increased. In this study area, giant pacific octopus weighing 1.1-5.0 kg dominated accounting for 56% of the total individuals, and followed by those weighing 1 kg or less. However, the ratio of catch of giant pacific octopus over 5.1 kg tended to increase in 2021, which is thought to be related to the sea temperature that affected the fishing ground. The main depth of fishing ground was from 21 m to 50 m in this area and fishing grounds were widely distributed throughout the season except summer. Fishing ground was formed with the conditions of bottom sea temperature under 10℃ and was diminished by moving of giant pacific octopus to deeper depth with conditions of bottom sea temperature over 18℃.

Improving SARIMA model for reliable meteorological drought forecasting

  • Jehanzaib, Muhammad;Shah, Sabab Ali;Son, Ho Jun;Kim, Tae-Woong
    • 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국수자원학회 2022년도 학술발표회
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    • pp.141-141
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    • 2022
  • Drought is a global phenomenon that affects almost all landscapes and causes major damages. Due to non-linear nature of contributing factors, drought occurrence and its severity is characterized as stochastic in nature. Early warning of impending drought can aid in the development of drought mitigation strategies and measures. Thus, drought forecasting is crucial in the planning and management of water resource systems. The primary objective of this study is to make improvement is existing drought forecasting techniques. Therefore, we proposed an improved version of Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model (MD-SARIMA) for reliable drought forecasting with three years lead time. In this study, we selected four watersheds of Han River basin in South Korea to validate the performance of MD-SARIMA model. The meteorological data from 8 rain gauge stations were collected for the period 1973-2016 and converted into watershed scale using Thiessen's polygon method. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was employed to represent the meteorological drought at seasonal (3-month) time scale. The performance of MD-SARIMA model was compared with existing models such as Seasonal Naive Bayes (SNB) model, Exponential Smoothing (ES) model, Trigonometric seasonality, Box-Cox transformation, ARMA errors, Trend and Seasonal components (TBATS) model, and SARIMA model. The results showed that all the models were able to forecast drought, but the performance of MD-SARIMA was robust then other statistical models with Wilmott Index (WI) = 0.86, Mean Absolute Error (MAE) = 0.66, and Root mean square error (RMSE) = 0.80 for 36 months lead time forecast. The outcomes of this study indicated that the MD-SARIMA model can be utilized for drought forecasting.

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방사선사(放射線士)의 동무(勤務) 실태(實態)에 관한 조사연구(調査硏究) (Survey on Working Condition of Radiological Technologists)

  • 최종학;전만진;박영선
    • 대한방사선기술학회지:방사선기술과학
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    • 제9권1호
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    • pp.51-63
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    • 1986
  • We got the following results from the 324 radiologic technologists as we surveyed their working condition by using the questionaire, who were working in the medical institutions (general hospitals and doctor's clinics) situated in the area of Seoul city, Kyung ki-do and Chung-chong-do since June to December 1985. 1. Their daily average working time was almost within 10 hours (in 93.9% of general hospitals, 66.1% of clinics). 2. About the numbers of holidays, 85.5% of general hospitals have one holiday per week,41.3% of clinics have one holiday per week or 38.5% of clinics have one holiday per two weeks. 3. Duty appointment of radiologic technologists in the department of radiology is taking charge of each part after serving for a certain part for some period (42.8%), taking charge of the special part continually or by turns in other working parts (35.3%). On the other hand in the clinics they took charge of all parts continually (53.2%) or by turns with their own situations. (30.3%). 4. Their daily working amount is too much in 51.6% of general hospitals or 45.8% of clinics. 5. They answered it was hard in 81.4% of general hospitals or 43.1% of clinics about the degree of difficulty of their work. 6. Their monthly salary is higher in the clinics than in the general hospitals and higher in Seoul area than in Kyung-ki or Chung-chong area. 7. Their yearly bonus .ate is 400%-600% (69.2%) in almost general hospitals, 100%-300% (57.8%) in th. clinics. 8. Danger allowance is paid with the monthly salary in 62.8% of the general hospitals or 19.2% of clinics and license allowance is paid in 44.7% of general hospitals or in 12.8% of clinics. 9. Their initial salary (except bonus) is about 200,000 won (in 76.8% of general hospitals, in 67.8% of clinics). 10. Their salary is raised regulary every year in 52.6% of general hospitals, but it is irregulary in 73.4% of clinics. 11. Promotion system is managed in 48.4% of the general hospitals or in 14.7% of clinics. 12. Retirement allowance is assured in 96.9% of the general hospitals or in 63.3% of clinics. 13. Main cause of their retirement is moving to more paid hospitals, better hospitals in working condition or facilities, moving to another cities, to the hospitals with more opportunities of promotion or choosing other jobs etc. 14. Human relationship with doctors, nurses or co-worker technologists as a member of medical team appeared almost intimate and good.

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