• Title/Summary/Keyword: most probable states

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Microbiological Quality of the Shellfish-growing Waters and Mussels in Changseon, Namhae, Korea (남해 창선해역의 해수 및 진주담치의 위생학적 안전성 평가)

  • Yoo, Hyun-Duk;Ha, Kwang-Soo;Shim, Kil-Bo;Kang, Jin Yeong;Lee, Tae-Seek;Kim, Ji-Hoe
    • Korean Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences
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    • v.43 no.4
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    • pp.298-306
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    • 2010
  • A sanitary survey was conducted to evaluate the water quality and mussel (Mytilus edulis) conditions of two administrative shellfish growing waters: those designated as shellfish growing water for export, and adjacent waters on the east coast of Changseon Island, Namhae, Korea. In all, 1,656 seawater and 166 mussel samples were collected at 46 stations for seawater and five stations for the shellfish from January 2007 to December 2009. Both seawater and mussels were examined for total coliforms and fecal coliforms. The standard plate count and most probable number of Escherichia coli were also determined for the shellfish samples. The range of the geometric means and the estimated 90th percentiles of fecal coliform for seawater samples at each station were <1.8-4.1 MPN/100 mL and <1.8-22.3 MPN/100 mL, respectively. The sanitary conditions for both shellfish growing areas, the designated shellfish growing area and adjacent area in Changseon, met the 'Approved area' criteria of the United States National Shellfish Sanitation Program. The range of E. coli detected in mussels in these areas was <20-500 MPN/100 g; and only 3 of 166 samples exceeded 230 MPN/100 g, the European standard for the consumption of raw bivalves. Therefore, the mussel farms in the Changseon area are classified as 'Class A' according to criteria set in European Community regulations. However, the levels of E. coli in mussels in parts of the designated shellfish growing area and adjacent area exceeded the bacterial limits after rainfall exceeding 45 mm. Further studies are needed to fully define the conditions leading to a temporary closure to harvest after a rainfall event.

The current state and prospects of travel business development under the COVID-19 pandemic

  • Tkachenko, Tetiana;Pryhara, Olha;Zatsepina, Nataly;Bryk, Stepan;Holubets, Iryna;Havryliuk, Alla
    • International Journal of Computer Science & Network Security
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    • v.21 no.12spc
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    • pp.664-674
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    • 2021
  • The relevance of this scientific research is determined by the negative impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the current trends and dynamics of world tourism development. This article aims to identify patterns of development of the modern tourist market, analysis of problems and prospects of development in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. Materials and methods. General scientific methods and methods of research are used in the work: analysis, synthesis, comparison, analysis of statistical data. The analysis of the viewpoints of foreign and domestic authors on the research of the international tourist market allowed us to substantiate the actual directions of tourism development due to the influence of negative factors connected with the spread of a new coronavirus infection COVID-19. Economic-statistical, abstract-logical, and economic-mathematical methods of research were used during the process of study and data processing. Results. The analysis of the current state of the tourist market by world regions was carried out. It was found that tourism is one of the most affected sectors from COVID-19, as, by the end of 2020, the total number of tourist arrivals in the world decreased by 74% compared to the same period in 2019. The consequence of this decline was a loss of total global tourism revenues by the end of 2020, which equaled $1.3 trillion. 27% of all destinations are completely closed to international tourism. At the end of 2020, the economy of international tourism has shrunk by about 80%. In 2020 the world traveled 98 million fewer people (-83%) relative to the same period last year. Tourism was hit hardest by the pandemic in the Asia-Pacific region, where travel restrictions are as strict as possible. International arrivals in this region fell by 84% (300 million). The Middle East and Africa recorded declines of 75 and 70 percent. Despite a small and short-lived recovery in the summer of 2020, Europe lost 71% of the tourist flow, with the European continent recording the largest drop in absolute terms compared with 2019, 500 million. In North and South America, foreign arrivals declined. It is revealed that a significant decrease in tourist flows leads to a massive loss of jobs, a sharp decline in foreign exchange earnings and taxes, which limits the ability of states to support the tourism industry. Three possible scenarios of exit of the tourist industry from the crisis, reflecting the most probable changes of monthly tourist flows, are considered. The characteristics of respondents from Ukraine, Germany, and the USA and their attitude to travel depending on gender, age, education level, professional status, and monthly income are presented. About 57% of respondents from Ukraine, Poland, and the United States were planning a tourist trip in 2021. Note that people with higher or secondary education were more willing to plan such a trip. The results of the empirical study confirm that interest in domestic tourism has increased significantly in 2021. The regression model of dependence of the number of domestic tourist trips on the example of Ukraine with time tendency (t) and seasonal variations (Turˆt = 7288,498 - 20,58t - 410,88∑5) it forecast for 2020, which allows stabilizing the process of tourist trips after the pandemic to use this model to forecast for any country. Discussion. We should emphasize the seriousness of the COVID-19 pandemic and the fact that many experts and scientists believe in the long-term recovery of the tourism industry. In our opinion, the governments of the countries need to refocus on domestic tourism and deal with infrastructure development, search for new niches, formats, formation of new package deals in new - domestic - segment (new products' development (tourist routes, exhibitions, sightseeing programs, special rehabilitation programs after COVID) -19 in sanatoriums, etc.); creation of individual offers for different target audiences). Conclusions. Thus, the identified trends are associated with a decrease in the number of tourist flows, the negative impact of the pandemic on employment and income from tourism activities. International tourism needs two to four years before it returns to the level of 2019.

PRC Maritime Operational Capability and the Task for the ROK Military (중국군의 해양작전능력과 한국군의 과제)

  • Kim, Min-Seok
    • Strategy21
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    • s.33
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    • pp.65-112
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    • 2014
  • Recent trends show that the PRC has stepped aside its "army-centered approach" and placed greater emphasis on its Navy and Air Force for a wider range of operations, thereby reducing its ground force and harnessing its economic power and military technology into naval development. A quantitative growth of the PLA Navy itself is no surprise as this is not a recent phenomenon. Now is the time to pay closer attention to the level of PRC naval force's performance and the extent of its warfighting capacity in the maritime domain. It is also worth asking what China can do with its widening naval power foundation. In short, it is time to delve into several possible scenarios I which the PRC poses a real threat. With this in mind, in Section Two the paper seeks to observe the construction progress of PRC's naval power and its future prospects up to the year 2020, and categorize time frame according to its major force improvement trends. By analyzing qualitative improvements made over time, such as the scale of investment and the number of ships compared to increase in displacement (tonnage), this paper attempts to identify salient features in the construction of naval power. Chapter Three sets out performance evaluation on each type of PRC naval ships as well as capabilities of the Navy, Air Force, the Second Artillery (i.e., strategic missile forces) and satellites that could support maritime warfare. Finall, the concluding chapter estimates the PRC's maritime warfighting capability as anticipated in respective conflict scenarios, and considers its impact on the Korean Peninsula and proposes the directions ROK should steer in response. First of all, since the 1980s the PRC navy has undergone transitions as the focus of its military strategic outlook shifted from ground warfare to maritime warfare, and within 30 years of its effort to construct naval power while greatly reducing the size of its ground forces, the PRC has succeeded in building its naval power next to the U.S.'s in the world in terms of number, with acquisition of an aircraft carrier, Chinese-version of the Aegis, submarines and so on. The PRC also enjoys great potentials to qualitatively develop its forces such as indigenous aircraft carriers, next-generation strategic submarines, next-generation destroyers and so forth, which is possible because the PRC has accumulated its independent production capabilities in the process of its 30-year-long efforts. Secondly, one could argue that ROK still has its chances of coping with the PRC in naval power since, despite its continuous efforts, many estimate that the PRC naval force is roughly ten or more years behind that of superpowers such as the U.S., on areas including radar detection capability, EW capability, C4I and data-link systems, doctrines on force employment as well as tactics, and such gap cannot be easily overcome. The most probable scenarios involving the PRC in sea areas surrounding the Korean Peninsula are: first, upon the outbreak of war in the peninsula, the PRC may pursue military intervention through sea, thereby undermining efforts of the ROK-U.S. combined operations; second, ROK-PRC or PRC-Japan conflicts over maritime jurisdiction or ownership over the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands could inflict damage to ROK territorial sovereignty or economic gains. The PRC would likely attempt to resolve the conflict employing blitzkrieg tactics before U.S. forces arrive on the scene, while at the same time delaying and denying access of the incoming U.S. forces. If this proves unattainable, the PRC could take a course of action adopting "long-term attrition warfare," thus weakening its enemy's sustainability. All in all, thiss paper makes three proposals on how the ROK should respond. First, modern warfare as well as the emergent future warfare demonstrates that the center stage of battle is no longer the domestic territory, but rather further away into the sea and space. In this respect, the ROKN should take advantage of the distinct feature of battle space on the peninsula, which is surrounded by the seas, and obtain capabilities to intercept more than 50 percent of the enemy's ballistic missiles, including those of North Korea. In tandem with this capacity, employment of a large scale of UAV/F Carrier for Kill Chain operations should enhance effectiveness. This is because conditions are more favorable to defend from sea, on matters concerning accuracy rates against enemy targets, minimized threat of friendly damage, and cost effectiveness. Second, to maintain readiness for a North Korean crisis where timely deployment of US forces is not possible, the ROKN ought to obtain capabilities to hold the enemy attack at bay while deterring PRC naval intervention. It is also argued that ROKN should strengthen its power so as to protect national interests in the seas surrounding the peninsula without support from the USN, should ROK-PRC or ROK-Japan conflict arise concerning maritime jurisprudence. Third, the ROK should fortify infrastructures for independent construction of naval power and expand its R&D efforts, and for this purpose, the ROK should make the most of the advantages stemming from the ROK-U.S. alliance inducing active support from the United States. The rationale behind this argument is that while it is strategically effective to rely on alliance or jump on the bandwagon, the ultimate goal is always to acquire an independent response capability as much as possible.

Continuous Wet Oxidation of TCE over Supported Metal Oxide Catalysts (금속산화물 담지촉매상에서 연속 습식 TCE 분해반응)

  • Kim, Moon Hyeon;Choo, Kwang-Ho
    • Korean Chemical Engineering Research
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    • v.43 no.2
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    • pp.206-214
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    • 2005
  • Heterogeneously-catalyzed oxidation of aqueous phase trichloroethylene (TCE) over supported metal oxides has been conducted to establish an approach to eliminate ppm levels of organic compounds in water. A continuous flow reactor system was designed to effect predominant reaction parameters in determining catalytic activity of the catalysts for wet TCE decomposition as a model reaction. 5 wt.% $CoO_x/TiO_2$ catalyst exhibited a transient period in activity vs. on-stream time behavior, suggesting that the surface structure of the $CoO_x$ might be altered with on-stream hours; regardless, it is probable to be the most promising catalyst. Not only could the bare support be inactive for the wet decomposition reaction at $36^{\circ}C$, but no TCE removal also occurred by the process of adsorption on $TiO_2$ surface. The catalytic activity was independent of all particle sizes used, thereby representing no mass transfer limitation in intraparticle diffusion. Very low TCE conversion appeared for $TiO_2$-supported $NiO_x$ and $CrO_x$ catalysts. Wet oxidation performance of supported Cu and Fe catalysts, obtained through an incipient wetness and ion exchange technique, was dependent primarily on the kinds of the metal oxides, in addition to the acidic solid supports and the preparation routes. 5 wt.% $FeO_x/TiO_2$ catalyst gave no activity in the oxidation reaction at $36^{\circ}C$, while 1.2 wt.% Fe-MFI was active for the wet decomposition depending on time on-stream. The noticeable difference in activity of the both catalysts suggests that the Fe oxidation states involved to catalytic redox cycle during the course of reaction play a significant role in catalyzing the wet decomposition as well as in maintaining the time on-stream activity. Based on the results of different $CoO_x$ loadings and reaction temperatures for the decomposition reaction at $36^{\circ}C$ with $CoO_x/TiO_2$, the catalyst possessed an optimal $CoO_x$ amount at which higher reaction temperatures facilitated the catalytic TCE conversion. Small amounts of the active ingredient could be dissolved by acidic leaching but such a process gave no appreciable activity loss of the $CoO_x$ catalyst.