• 제목/요약/키워드: mortality risk

검색결과 1,404건 처리시간 0.029초

혼인상태별 사망률의 차이를 반영한 생명보험수리 모형의 설계 (Designing a life actuarial model with reflection of mortality differential by marital status)

  • 권혁성;김정은
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
    • /
    • 제24권3호
    • /
    • pp.571-584
    • /
    • 2013
  • 현재까지 인간 수명에 영향을 미치는 요소와 해당 요소가 수명에 미치는 영향을 계량적으로 분석하는 연구들이 지속적으로 이루어져 왔고, 그 결과 성별과 연령 이외의 많은 요소들이 실제로 수명에 유의한 영향을 미치는 요인으로 나타났다. 혼인상태는 그러한 요인들 중 하나로, 직접 또는 간접적으로 생존자의 여명에 영향을 끼치는 것으로 인지되고 있다. 이러한 결과는 공적보험과 같은 사회복지 제도와 사보험 영역의 생명보험과 개인연금의 위험관리에 시사점을 제공해 준다. 본 연구에서는 국내의 혼인상태별 사망률 자료를 이용하여 혼인상태의 변화를 반영한 사망률 모형을 설계하고 혼인상태가 보험수리적 계산에 미치는 영향을 파악하고, 그 결과가 나타내는 시사점에 대하여 논의하였다.

선천성 심장기형의 임상고찰 및 수술사망율에 미치는 위험인자의 분석 (Clinical Study and Risk Factors of Surgical Mortality of Congenital Heart Defects)

  • 이상호;김병균
    • Journal of Chest Surgery
    • /
    • 제30권1호
    • /
    • pp.17-26
    • /
    • 1997
  • 경상대학교병원 흉부외과에서는 1988년 10월부터 1995년 12월까지 7년 2개월 동안 366례의 선천성 심장기형에 대한 수술을 시행하였다. 남자가 171례, 여자가 195례이었고, 생후 5일부터 64세에까지 분포하였으며 성인(만 15세 이상)이 80례이었다. 비청색증형이 313례(84.2%)이었으며 청색증이 53례(15.8%)이었다 전체 사망율은 10.4%이었는데, 6개월 미만 5)례 중 37%, 6개월과 1년 사이가48례 중 10.6%를 나타내어 12개월 미만 영아 사망율은 24.8%(25/101)이었으며, 50세 이상의 노년 환자 13례에서는 사망이 없었다. 비청색증군은 5.5%, 청색증군은 36.2%의 수술사망이 있었다. 수술사망율에 영향을 미치는 몇 가지 위험 인자들을 통계 분석하였다. 단변수 분석상 개심술의 사망율과 관계가 있는 위험 인자는 연령(p< 0.0001), 체중(p<0.0001), 체외순환시간(p< 0.0001) 및 심근허혈시간(p<0.0001), 완전순환정 지법의 이용 (P<0.0001)그리고 청색증질환(p<0.00이)이었다. 그러나, 다변량 분석상 개심술의 사망율과 관련이 있는 위험인자는 질환의 유형(p=0.002)이었고, 특히 활로4징증 이외의 청색증군이 사망율과 관련이 컸다 (odds ratio=15.3). 청색증군만\ulcorner 분석한 결과, 사망율의 위험인자로 단변수 분석상에서는 연령(p=0. 002)과 질환의 유형(p=0.008)이었으나, 다변량 분석에서는 질환의 유형(p=0.012) 뿐이었다. 저자들의 경험례 중 청색증군에서 사망율이 높았던 것은 질병자체의 영향임을 알 수 있었고,단변수 분석상 나타난 위험인자들 중 기술적 개선이 가능한 요인들에 대해서는 특별한 노력이 있어야 될 것으로 판단되는 것이다.

  • PDF

미래의 사망가능성 감소에 대한 지불의사금액과 통계적 인간생명의 가치 측정 -환경적 피해와 환경정책의 평가를 위한 통계적 인간생명의 가치- (Estimating the Willingness-to-Pay and the Value of a Statistical Life for Future Mortality Risk Reduction : The Value of a Statistical Life for Assessing Environmental Damages and Policies)

  • 신영철;조승헌
    • 자원ㆍ환경경제연구
    • /
    • 제12권1호
    • /
    • pp.49-74
    • /
    • 2003
  • This study used a slightly modified version of contingent valuation questionnaire designed and developed by Krupnick et al.(2000) to estimate the value of mortality risk reduction for environmental policy. Because that environmental policy, especially air pollution policy with some latency main effect on mortality risk reduction of old people with some latency period, respondents were asked about their current WTP for 5/1,000 mortality risk reduction being to take place beginning at 70 over the course of ten years. The annual mean WTP is 233,370 won (standard error 32,570 won) in spike/continuous/interval data model. The implied VSL is 466 million won. The 95% confidence interval is 339 million won~594 million won.

  • PDF

Suitability of stochastic models for mortality projection in Korea: a follow-up discussion

  • Le, Thu Thi Ngoc;Kwon, Hyuk-Sung
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
    • /
    • 제28권2호
    • /
    • pp.171-188
    • /
    • 2021
  • Due to an increased demand for longevity risk analysis, various stochastic models have been suggested to evaluate uncertainly in estimated life expectancy and the associated value of future annuity payments. Recently updated data allow us to analyze mortality for a longer historical period and extended age ranges. This study followed up previous case studies using up-to-date empirical data on Korean mortality and the recently developed R package StMoMo for stochastic mortality models analysis. The suitability of stochastic mortality models, focusing on retirement ages, was investigated with goodness-of-fit, validity of models, and ability of generating reasonable sets of simulation paths of future mortality. Comparisons were made across various types of models. Based on the selected models, the variability of important estimated measures associated with pension, annuity, and reverse mortgage were quantified using simulations.

한 대학병원에서 급성 폐색전증으로 진단된 환자들의 임상적 특성 및 예후 (Acute Pulmonary Embolism: Clinical Characteristics and Outcomes in a University Teaching Hospital)

  • 채진녕;최원일;박지혜;노병학;김재범
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
    • /
    • 제68권3호
    • /
    • pp.140-145
    • /
    • 2010
  • Background: Pulmonary embolism (PE) is a common clinical problem in the West that is associated with substantial morbidity and mortality. The diagnostic modality has been changed since 2001. This study retrospectively reviewed the PE mortality with the aim of identifying the risk factors associated with mortality since the multidetector computed tomography (MDCT) was introduced. Methods: We analyzed 105 patients with acute PE proven by multidetector CT or ventilation perfusion scan. The primary outcome measure was the all-cause mortality at 3 months. The prognostic effect of the baseline factors on survival was assessed by multivariate analysis. Results: The main risk factors were prolonged immobilization, stroke, cancer and obesity. Forty nine percent of patients had 3 or more risk factors. The overall mortality at 3 months was 18.1%. Multivariate analysis revealed low diastolic blood pressure and the existence of cancer to be independent factors significantly associated with mortality. Forty two PE patients were examined for the coagulation inhibitors. Four of these patients had a protein C deficiency (9.5%), and 11 had a protein S deficiency (26%). Conclusion: PE is an important clinical problem with a high mortality rate. Close monitoring may be necessary in patients with the risk factors.

노인의 거주형태에 따른 사망 위험요인: 동거노인과 독거노인의 비교 (Mortality Risk by Living Arrangements among Old Adults: Comparison between Living with Others and Living Alone)

  • 이시은
    • 디지털융복합연구
    • /
    • 제18권9호
    • /
    • pp.249-256
    • /
    • 2020
  • 본 연구의 목적은 노인의 거주형태에 따라 사망 위험요인에 차이가 있는지 파악하기 위함이다. 본 연구는 2014년도 고령화연구패널조사를 이차 분석한 연구로 노인 3,827명을 2년간 추적조사한 종단연구이다. 자료 분석을 위해 콕스 비례 위험 회귀 분석으로 분석하였다. 본 연구결과, 동거노인은 성별, 교육수준, 주관적 건강 상태, IADL 제한, 인지기능 장애, 우울 증상이 사망에 영향을 주는 요인이었으며, 독거노인은 규칙적 운동 여부, IADL 제한, 인지기능 장애가 사망에 영향을 주는 것으로 나타났다. 본 연구는 거주형태에 따라 사망 위험요인 간에 차이가 있는지 규명하였다는 점에서 의의가 있다. 본 연구 결과에 따라 노인의 거주형태에 따라 사망률을 줄이기 위한 간호 중재를 개발해야 할 것이다.

Differential Signature of Obesity in the Relationship with Acute Kidney Injury and Mortality after Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting

  • Moon, Hongran;Lee, Yeonhee;Kim, Sejoong;Kim, Dong Ki;Chin, Ho Jun;Joo, Kwon Wook;Kim, Yon Su;Na, Ki Young;Han, Seung Seok
    • Journal of Korean Medical Science
    • /
    • 제33권48호
    • /
    • pp.312.1-312.10
    • /
    • 2018
  • Background: Obesity is related to several comorbidities and mortality, but its relationship with acute kidney injury (AKI) and long-term mortality remain undetermined in patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting. Methods: Data from 3,018 patients (age ${\geq}18$ years) who underwent coronary artery bypass graft surgery from two tertiary referral centers were retrospectively reviewed between 2004 and 2015. Obesity was defined using the body mass index, according to the World Health Organization's recommendation. The odds and hazard ratios in post-surgical, AKI, and all-cause mortality were calculated after adjustment for multiple covariates. Patients were followed for $90{\pm}40.9$ months (maximum: 13 years). Results: Among the cohort, 37.4%, 2.4%, 21.1%, 35.1%, and 4.0% of patients were classified as normal weight, underweight, overweight-at-risk, obese I, and obese II, respectively. Post-surgical AKI developed in 799 patients (26.5%). Patients in the obese groups (overweight-at-risk to obese II) had a higher risk of AKI than did those in the normal-weight group. During the follow-up period, 787 patients (26.1%) died. Underweight patients had a higher risk of mortality than did normal-weight patients, whereas overweight-at-risk, obese I, and obese II patients showed better survival rates. Conclusion: After coronary artery bypass graft surgery, obese patients encountered a high risk of AKI, and underweight patients exhibited a low chance of survival. Awareness of both obese and underweight statuses should be raised in these patients.

심부전 환자의 빈혈과 사망률 및 재입원 간의 관계에 대한 통합적 고찰 (Anemia as a Risk Factor of Mortality and Rehospitalization in Patients with Heart Failure : An Integrative Review)

  • 손연정;김보환
    • 중환자간호학회지
    • /
    • 제12권1호
    • /
    • pp.94-108
    • /
    • 2019
  • Purpose : Heart failure (HF) is considered an important medical burden with rehospitalization and mortality. Anemia is a major risk factor associated with the severity of HF. To improve the understanding of the impact of anemia in the population with HF, we explored the prevalence of anemia, its guidelines, relationship between anemia and mortality or rehospitalization, and limitation of reviewed papers of various populations with HF. Method: We used Whittemore and Knafl's integrative review methodology (2005), and thirty research papers were analyzed. PubMed, CINAHL, Cochrane, PsychInfo, Embase, Web of Science were searched for papers published between January 1960-June 2018. Results: Anemia in individuals with HF was primarily defined using the World Health Organization guideline. The prevalence of anemia in patients with HF varied from 9% to 56.7%. Moreover, such a condition significantly increases the prevalence of mortality or rehospitalization in patients with HF. The analyzed majority were non-prospective cohort study including secondary data analysis. Conclusion: Anemia in individuals with HF is a significant risk factor of mortality and rehospitalization. Prospective cohort studies should be designed to identify the optimal value for screening anemia and the impact of anemia on rehospitalization and mortality among HF patients.

Adverse Effects of Air Pollution on Pulmonary Diseases

  • Ko, Ui Won;Kyung, Sun Young
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
    • /
    • 제85권4호
    • /
    • pp.313-319
    • /
    • 2022
  • Environmental exposure to air pollution is known to have adverse effects on various organs. Air pollution has greater effects on the pulmonary system as the lungs are directly exposed to contaminants in the air. Here, we review the associations of air pollution with the development, morbidity, and mortality of pulmonary diseases. Short-and long-term exposure to air pollution have been shown to increase mortality risk even at concentrations below the current national guidelines. Ambient air pollution has been shown to be associated with lung cancer. Particularly long-term exposure to particulate matter with a diameter <2.5 ㎛ (PM2.5) has been reported to be associated with lung cancer even at low concentrations. In addition, exposure to air pollution has been shown to increase the incidence risk of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and has been correlated with exacerbation and mortality of COPD. Air pollution has also been linked to exacerbation, mortality, and development of asthma. Exposure to nitrogen dioxide (NO2) has been demonstrated to be related to increased mortality in patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis. Additionally, air pollution increases the incidence of infectious diseases, such as pneumonia, bronchitis, and tuberculosis. Furthermore, emerging evidence supports a link between air pollution and coronavirus disease 2019 transmission, susceptibility, severity and mortality. In conclusion, the stringency of air quality guidelines should be increased and further therapeutic trials are required in patients at high risk of adverse health effects of air pollution.

서울 대기 중 미세 먼지 노출로 인한 위해도에 근거한 우선 관리 지역 선정 -이론적 사망 위해도 및 손실비용을 근거로- (Selection of Priority Areas Based on Human and Economic Risk from Exposure to Fine Particles in Seoul)

  • 김예신;이용진;신동천
    • Environmental Analysis Health and Toxicology
    • /
    • 제19권1호
    • /
    • pp.49-58
    • /
    • 2004
  • It is important to select a risk based priority area for environmental policy formation and decision-making. We estimated the health risks and associated damage costs from exposure to fine particles and assigned priority areas for twenty -five districts in Seoul. In order to estimate the theoretical mortality incidence of the health risk, baseline risks were estimated from mortality rates in two low level areas of fine particles, Seocho Gu and Cheju city To estimate the damage cost from the risk estimates, we investigated and estimated the willingness to pay (WTP) for specific risk reduction. We assumed two different locations as the reference area, Cheju city as Scenario I and Seocho gu as Scenario II. From the results, the five districts, Kwangjin, Chungnang, Kangbuk, Nowon, and Kangnam, ranked high in the categories of both health risk and economic risk. Damage costs were over twenty billion won in each of these districts. As there are uncertainties in these results, the parameter values such as PM$_{2.5}$ level, dose -response slope factor, baseline risk, exposure population and WTP should be continuously validated and refined.d.