• Korean Journal of Community Nutrition
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• v.20 no.4
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• pp.301-309
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• 2015

Objectives: While recent studies showed that coffee consumption reduced the risk of all-cause mortality, no study has examined the effect of coffee consumption on all-cause mortality related to sleep disorders. We aimed to examine whether sleep-related disorders would differently affect the association between coffee consumption and the risk of all-cause mortality among 8,075 adults aged 40 to 69 years. Methods: In a prospective cohort study, the study participants were biennially followed up for 12 years from 2001 to 2012. On each follow-up visit, the participants underwent comprehensive tests including anthropometric examinations, interviewer-administered questionnaires, and biochemical tests. Coffee consumption frequency and the amount were measured using a semi-quantitative food frequency questionnaire. Using death certificate data from Korean National Statistical Office, the vital status of each study participant was identified. Sleep-related disorders were examined with interviewer-administered questionnaires. We estimated Hazard ratios and the corresponding 95% confidence intervals from Cox Proportional Hazard models. Multivariable models were established after adjusting for center, total caloric intake, age, gender, body mass index, physical activity, education, smoking, drinking, hypertension, diabetes, total cholesterol, c-reactive protein, energy-adjusted food groups of refined grains, vegetables, fruits, meat, fish, and dairy. Results: Compared with those who had no coffee consumption, participants who had about three cups of coffee per day showed a reduced risk of all-cause mortality, after adjusting for covariates. Those who had a sleep-related disorder showed no significant effect of coffee consumption on the risk of all-cause mortality, whereas those who had no sleep-related disorders showed significantly reduced risk of all-cause mortality. Conclusions: Our findings suggested that approximately three cups of coffee per day would be beneficial to reduce the risk of all-cause mortality only among adults with no sleep-related disorders. Coffee consumption should be prudent for those with sleep-related symptoms.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• v.13 no.9
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• pp.4501-4504
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• 2012

In recent decades, decreasing trends in esophageal cancer mortality have been observed across China. We here describe esophageal cancer mortality trends in Linzhou city, a high-incidence region of esophageal cancer in China, during 1988-2010 and make a esophageal cancer mortality projection in the period 2011-2020 using a Bayesian approach. Age standardized mortality rates were estimated by direct standardization to the World population structure in 1985. A Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) analysis was carried out in order to investigate the effect of the age, period and birth cohort on esophageal cancer mortality in Linzhou during 1988-2010 and to estimate future trends for the period 2011-2020. Age-adjusted rates for men and women decreased from 1988 to 2005 and changed little thereafter. Risk increased from 30 years of age until the very elderly. Period effects showed little variation in risk throughout 1988-2010. In contrast, a cohort effect showed risk decreased greatly in later cohorts. Forecasting, based on BAPC modeling, resulted in a increasing burden of mortality and a decreasing age standardized mortality rate of esophageal cancer in Linzhou city. The decrease of esophageal cancer mortality risk since the 1930 cohort could be attributable to the improvements of socialeconomic environment and lifestyle. The standardized mortality rates of esophageal cancer should decrease continually. The effect of aging on the population could explain the increase in esophageal mortality projected for 2020.

• The Journal of the Korean life insurance medical association
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• v.28 no.1_2
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• pp.15-18
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• 2009

Background: Recent emergence of drug-resistant tuberculosis such as multidrug-resistant tuberculosis(MDR-TB) or extensively drug-resistant tuberculosis(XDR-TB) has become important health care problems. It has also became grave issues for insurance industries in determining medical risks. We have therefore strived to analyze the comparative mortality rates for drug-resistant tuberculosis through utilization of results from previous articles. Methods: Comparative mortality was calculated from source articles using mortality analysis methods. Results: Mortality ratio of MDR-TB was estimate to 1200%, and excess death rate was 110 per 1,000. Comparative mortality between MDR-TB and XDR-TB by Korean $study^{(1)}$ were 1750, 382, 405, 443, 1025, and 357%, for each 10 months study intervals, respectively. Total mortality ratio was 594% and total excess death rate was 60 per 1,000person. It was determined that the risk of XDR-TB was much greater than MDR-TB. Discussion; Pending the development of a novel anti-tuberculosis drug, it would be prudent to steer clear insuring XDR-TB during underwriting phase due to high medical cost that it creates.

• The Korean journal of helicobacter and upper gastrointestinal research
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• v.18 no.4
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• pp.225-230
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• 2018

Upper gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding (UGIB) is the most common GI emergency, and it is associated with significant morbidity and mortality. Early identification of low-risk patients suitable for outpatient management has the potential to reduce unnecessary costs, and prompt triage of high-risk patients could allow appropriate intervention and minimize morbidity and mortality. Several risk-scoring systems have been developed to predict the outcomes of UGIB. As each scoring system measures different primary outcome variables, appropriate risk scores must be implemented in clinical practice. The Glasgow-Blatchford score (GBS) should be used to predict the need for interventions such as blood transfusion or endoscopic or surgical treatment. Patients with GBS ${\leq}1$ have a low likelihood of adverse outcomes and can be considered for early discharge. The Rockall score was externally validated and is widely used for prediction of mortality. The recently developed AIMS65 score is easy to calculate and was proposed to predict in-hospital mortality. The Forrest classification is based on endoscopic findings and can be used to stratify patients into high- and low-risk categories in terms of rebleeding and thus is useful in predicting the need for endoscopic hemostasis. Early risk stratification is critical in the management of UGIB and may improve patient outcome and reduce unnecessary health care costs through standardization of care.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• v.15 no.22
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• pp.10027-10031
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• 2014

Background: We investigated the risk of cancer mortality according to obesity status and metabolic health status using sampled cohort data from the National Health Insurance system. Materials and Methods: Data on body mass index and fasting blood glucose in the sampled cohort database (n=363,881) were used to estimate risk of cancer mortality. Data were analyzed using a Cox proportional hazard model (Model 1 was adjusted for age, sex, systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, total cholesterol level and urinary protein; Model 2 was adjusted for Model 1 plus smoking status, alcohol intake and physical activity). Results: According to the obesity status, the mean hazard ratios were 0.82 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.75-0.89] and 0.79 (95% CI, 0.72-0.85) for the overweight and obese groups, respectively, compared with the normal weight group. According to the metabolic health status, the mean hazard ratio was 1.26 (95% CI, 1.14-1.40) for the metabolically unhealthy group compared with the metabolically healthy group. The interaction between obesity status and metabolic health status on the risk of cancer mortality was not statistically significant (p=0.31). Conclusions: We found that the risk of cancer mortality decreased according to the obesity status and increased according to the metabolic health status. Given the rise in the rate of metabolic dysfunction, the mortality from cancer is also likely to rise. Treatment strategies targeting metabolic dysfunction may lead to reductions in the risk of death from cancer.

• Quality Improvement in Health Care
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• v.10 no.2
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• pp.216-231
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• 2003

Objectives: To develop a model that predicts a death probability of acute myocardial infarction(AMI) patient, and to evaluate a performance of hospital services using the developed model. Methods: Medical records of 861 AMI patients in 7 general hospitals during 1996 and 1997 were reviewed by two trained nurses. Variables studied were risk factors which were measured in terms of severity measures. A risk model was developed by using the logistic regression, and its performance was evaluated using cross-validation and bootstrap techniques. The statistical prediction capability of the model was assessed by using c-statistic, $R^2$ as well as Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic. The model performance was also evaluated using severity-adjusted mortalities of hospitals. Results: Variables included in the model building are age, sex, ejection fraction, systolic BP, congestive heart failure at admission, cardiac arrest, EKG ischemia, arrhythmia, left anterior descending artery occlusion, verbal response within 48 hours after admission, acute neurological change within 48 hours after admission, and 3 interaction terms. The c statistics and $R^2$ were 0.887 and 0.2676. The Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic was 6.3355 (p-value=0.6067). Among 7 hospitals evaluated by the model, two hospitals showed significantly higher mortality rates, while other two hospitals had significantly lower mortality rates, than the average mortality rate of all hospitals. The remaining hospitals did not show any significant difference. Conclusion: The comparison of the qualities of hospital service using risk-adjusted mortality rates indicated significant difference among them. We therefore conclude that risk-adjusted mortality rate of AMI patients can be used as an indicator for evaluating hospital performance in Korea.

• Journal of Chest Surgery
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• v.54 no.2
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• pp.88-98
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• 2021

Background: This study aimed to develop a new risk prediction model for operative mortality in a Korean cohort undergoing heart valve surgery using the Korea Heart Valve Surgery Registry (KHVSR) database. Methods: We analyzed data from 4,742 patients registered in the KHVSR who underwent heart valve surgery at 9 institutions between 2017 and 2018. A risk prediction model was developed for operative mortality, defined as death within 30 days after surgery or during the same hospitalization. A statistical model was generated with a scoring system by multiple logistic regression analyses. The performance of the model was evaluated by its discrimination and calibration abilities. Results: Operative mortality occurred in 142 patients. The final regression models identified 13 risk variables. The risk prediction model showed good discrimination, with a c-statistic of 0.805 and calibration with Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit p-value of 0.630. The risk scores ranged from -1 to 15, and were associated with an increase in predicted mortality. The predicted mortality across the risk scores ranged from 0.3% to 80.6%. Conclusion: This risk prediction model using a scoring system specific to heart valve surgery was developed from the KHVSR database. The risk prediction model showed that operative mortality could be predicted well in a Korean cohort.

• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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• v.36 no.3
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• pp.230-238
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• 2003

Objectives : To estimate the value of statistical life (VSL) and health damage cost on theoretical mortality estimates due to environmental pollution. Methods : We assessed the health risk on three environmental problems and eight sub-problems. Willingness to pay (WTP) was elucidated from a questionnaire survey with dichotomous contingent valuation method and VSL (which is the division of WTP by the change of risk reduction) calculated from WTP. Damage costs were estimated by multiplying VSL by the theoretical mortality estimates. Results : VSLs from death caused by air pollution, indoor air pollution and drinking water contamination were about 0.3, 0.5 and 0.3 billion won, respectively. Damage costs of particulate matters ($PM_{10}$) and radon were higher in the sub-problems and were above 100 billion won. Because damage cost depends on theoretical mortality estimate and WTP, its uncertainty is reduced in the estimating process. Conclusion : Health damage cost or risk benefit should be considered as one scientific criterion for decision making in environmental policy.

• The Korean Journal of Health Service Management
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• v.9 no.2
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• pp.81-88
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• 2015

The purpose of this study was to compare the risk-adjusted in-hospital mortality for craniotomies between logistic regression and multilevel analysis. By using patient sample data from the Health Insurance Review & Assessment Service, in-patients with a craniotomy were selected as the survey target. The sample data were collected from a total number of 2,335 patients from 90 hospitals. The sample data were analyzed with SAS 9.3. From the results of the existing logistic regression analysis and multilevel analysis, the values from the multilevel analysis represented a better model than that of logistic regression. The intra-class correlation (ICC) was 18.0%. It was found that risk-adjusted in-hospital mortality for craniotomies may vary in every hospital. The agreement by kappa coefficient between the two methods was good for the risk-adjusted in-hospital mortality for craniotomies, but the factors influencing the outcome for that were different.

• Korean Journal of Clinical Pharmacy
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• v.25 no.3
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• pp.131-137
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• 2015

Background: The protective effect of metformin against breast cancer is inconclusive. Objective: To evaluate the effect of metformin on breast cancer risk and mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes. Method: A comprehensive literature search was performed for pertinent articles published prior to June 30, 2014, using PubMed and EMBASE. Study heterogeneity was estimated with $I^2$ statistic. The data from the included studies were pooled and weighted by random-effects model. The quality of each included study was assessed on the basis of the 9-star Newcastle-Ottawa Scale and publication bias was evaluated by visual inspection of a funnel plot. Results: Ten studies were included in the meta-analysis of the association of metformin and breast cancer risk. By synthesizing the data from the studies, the pooled odds ratio (OR) was 0.72 (95% CI: 0.59, 0.87) (p = 0.0005). Three cohort studies were included for meta-analysis of the association between metformin and breast cancer-related mortality. Metformin was associated with a significant decrease in mortality (Risk ratio: 0.68; 95% CI: 0.51, 0.90, p = 0.007). Conclusion: The present meta-analysis suggests that metformin appears to be associated with a lower risk of breast cancer incidence and mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes.