• Title/Summary/Keyword: mortality

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Liver Cancer Mortality Characteristics and Trends in China from 1991 to 2012

  • Fang, Jia-Ying;Wu, Ku-Sheng;Zeng, Yang;Tang, Wen-Rui;Du, Pei-Ling;Xu, Zhen-Xi;Xu, Xiao-Ling;Luo, Jia-Yi;Lin, Kun
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.16 no.5
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    • pp.1959-1964
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    • 2015
  • Purpose: To investigate the distribution of liver cancer mortality as well as its developing trend from 1991 to 2012, forecast the future five-year trend, and provide a basis for the comprehensive prevention and management. Materials and Methods: Mortality data for liver cancer in China from 1991 to 2012 were used to describe characteristics and distribution of liver cancer mortality. Trend surface analysis was used to study the geographical distribution of liver cancer mortality. Curve estimation, time series modeling, gray modeling (GM) and joinpoint regression were used to predict and forecast future trends. Results: The mortality rate of liver cancer has constantly increased in China since 1991. Rates in rural areas are higher than in urban areas, and in males are higher than in females. In addition, our data predicted that the trend will continue to increase in the next 5 years. The age-specific mortality of liver cancer increases with age and peaks in the group of 80-84 years old. Geographical analysis showed the liver mortality rate was higher in the southeast provinces, such as Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Guangdong, and southwest regions like Guangxi Province. Conclusions: The standardized mortality rate of liver cancer in China has consistently increased from 1991 to 2012, and the upward trend is predicted to continue in the future. Much better prevention and management of liver cancer is needed in high mortality areas (the southwestern and southeastern parts of China) and high mortality age groups (80- to 84-year-olds), especially in rural areas.

Age-Period-Cohort Analysis of Liver Cancer Mortality in Korea

  • Park, Jihwan;Jee, Yon Ho
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.16 no.18
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    • pp.8589-8594
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    • 2016
  • Background: Liver cancer is one of the most common causes of death in the world. In Korea, hepatitis B virus (HBV) is a major risk factor for liver cancer but infection rates have been declining since the implementation of the national vaccination program. In this study, we examined the secular trends in liver cancer mortality to distinguish the effects of age, time period, and birth cohort. Materials and Methods: Data for the annual number of liver cancer deaths in Korean adults (30 years and older) were obtained from the Korean Statistical Information Service for the period from 1984-2013. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to study the shapes of and to detect the changes in mortality trends. Also, an age-period-cohort model was designed to study the effect of each age, period, and birth cohort on liver cancer mortality. Results: For both men and women, the age-standardized mortality rate for liver cancer increased from 1984 to 1993 and decreased thereafter. The highest liver cancer mortality rate has shifted to an older age group in recent years. Within the same birth cohort group, the mortality rate of older age groups has been higher than in the younger age groups. Age-period-cohort analysis showed an association with a high mortality rate in the older age group and in recent years, whereas a decreasing mortality rate were observed in the younger birth cohort. Conclusions: This study confirmed a decreasing trend in liver cancer mortality among Korean men and women after 1993. The trends in mortality rate may be mainly attributed to cohort effects.

Associations of Serum Ferritin and Transferrin % Saturation With All-cause, Cancer, and Cardiovascular Disease Mortality: Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey Follow-up Study

  • Kim, Ki-Su;Son, Hye-Gyeong;Hong, Nam-Soo;Lee, Duk-Hee
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.45 no.3
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    • pp.196-203
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    • 2012
  • Objectives: Even though experimental studies have suggested that iron can be involved in generating oxidative stress, epidemiologic studies on the association of markers of body iron stores with cardiovascular disease or cancer remain controversial. This study was performed to examine the association of serum ferritin and transferrin saturation (%TS) with all-cause, cancer, and cardiovascular mortality. Methods: The study subjects were men aged 50 years or older and postmenopausal women of the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 1988-1994. Participants were followed-up for mortality through December 31, 2006. Results: Serum ferritin was not associated with all-cause, cancer, or cardiovascular mortality for either men or postmenopausal women. However, all-cause, cancer, and cardiovascular mortality were inversely associated with %TS in men. Compared with men in the lowest quintile, adjusted hazard ratios for all-cause, cancer, and cardiovascular mortality were 0.85, 0.86, 0.76, and 0.74 ($p$ for trend < 0.01), 0.82, 0.73, 0.75, and 0.63 ($p$ for trend < 0.01), and 0.86, 0.81, 0.72, and 0.76 ($p$ for trend < 0.01), respectively. For postmenopausal women, inverse associations were also observed for all-cause and cardiovascular mortality, but cancer mortality showed the significantly lower mortality only in the 2nd quintile of %TS compared with that of the 1st quintile. Conclusions: Unlike speculation on the role of iron from experimental studies, %TS was inversely associated with allcause, cancer and cardiovascular mortality in men and postmenopausal women. On the other hand, serum ferritin was not associated with all-cause, cancer, or cardiovascular mortality.

Clustering Asian and North African Countries According to Trend of Colon and Rectum Cancer Mortality Rates: an Application of Growth Mixture Models

  • Zayeri, Farid;Sheidaei, Ali;Mansouri, Anita
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.16 no.9
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    • pp.4115-4121
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    • 2015
  • Background: Colorectal cancer is the second most common cause of cancer death with half a million deaths per year. Incidence and mortality rates have demonstrated notable changes in Asian and African countries during the last few decades. In this study, we first aimed to determine the trend of colorectal cancer mortality rate in each Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) region, and then re-classify them to find more homogenous classes. Materials and Methods: Our study population consisted of 52 countries of Asia and North Africa in six IHME pre-defined regions for both genders and age-standardized groups from 1990 to 2010.We first applied simple growth models for pre-defined IHME regions to estimate the intercepts and slopes of mortality rate trends. Then, we clustered the 52 described countries using the latent growth mixture modeling approach for classifying them based on their colorectal mortality rates over time. Results: Statistical analysis revealed that males and people in high income Asia pacific and East Asia countries were at greater risk of death from colon and rectum cancer. In addition, South Asia region had the lowest rates of mortality due to this cancer. Simple growth modeling showed that majority of IHME regions had decreasing trend in mortality rate of colorectal cancer. However, re-classification these countries based on their mortality trend using the latent growth mixture model resulted in more homogeneous classes according to colorectal mortality trend. Conclusions: In general, our statistical analyses showed that most Asian and North African countries had upward trend in their colorectal cancer mortality. We therefore urge the health policy makers in these countries to evaluate the causes of growing mortality and study the interventional programs of successful countries in managing the consequences of this cancer.

Causes of Child Mortality (1 to 4 Years of Age) From 1983 to 2012 in the Republic of Korea: National Vital Data

  • Choe, Seung Ah;Cho, Sung-Il
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.47 no.6
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    • pp.336-342
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    • 2014
  • Objectives: Child mortality remains a critical problem even in developed countries due to low fertility. To plan effective interventions, investigation into the trends and causes of child mortality is necessary. Therefore, we analyzed these trends and causes of child deaths over the last 30 years in Korea. Methods: Causes of death data were obtained from a nationwide vital registration managed by the Korean Statistical Information Service. The mortality rate among all children aged between one and four years and the causes of deaths were reviewed. Data from 1983-2012 and 1993-2012 were analyzed separately because the proportion of unspecified causes of death during 1983-1992 varied substantially from that during 1993-2012. Results: The child (1-4 years) mortality rates substantially decreased during the past three decades. The trend analysis revealed that all the five major causes of death (infectious, neoplastic, neurologic, congenital, and external origins) have decreased significantly. However, the sex ratio of child mortality (boys to girls) slightly increased during the last 30 years. External causes of death remain the most frequent origin of child mortality, and the proportion of mortality due to child assault has significantly increased (from 1.02 in 1983 to 1.38 in 2012). Conclusions: In Korea, the major causes and rate of child mortality have changed and the sex ratio of child mortality has slightly increased since the early 1980s. Child mortality, especially due to preventable causes, requires public health intervention.

Analysis of Related Factors and Regional Variation of Mortality in Seoul (서울특별시 사망률 변이 및 관련 특성 분석)

  • Kim, Sooyeon;Kim, Ji Man;Park, Chong Yon;Lee, Chang-Woo;Lee, Sang Gyu;Shin, Euichul
    • Health Policy and Management
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    • v.28 no.1
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    • pp.15-22
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    • 2018
  • Background: Health is affected by various local factors. This study aims to investigate the age-standardized mortality variation of Seoul as well as the characteristics of the factors related to the mortality variation. Methods: The Korea Community Health Survey data, Seoul Survey data, Seoul statistics, and e-regional indicators of the National Statistical Office were used. To investigate the basic boroughs standardized mortality variation in Seoul, external quotient, coefficient of variation (CV), and systematic component of variation (SCV) values were suggested; correlation analysis and multiple regression analysis were conducted to investigate the characteristics related to standardized mortality rate. Results: The highest and the lowest standardized mortality rate of Seoul by boroughs had as much as 1.4 times difference; a low level of variation was shown in CV by 8.2; and was shown in SCV by 79. As a result of the multiple regression analysis of the factors that affect standardized mortality variation, the higher the rate of householders with college or higher, the lower the standardized mortality rate, and the higher the high-risk drinking rate, the higher the standardized mortality rate. Of the two, the rate of householder with a degree equivalent or higher than college was shown to have the biggest impact, followed by high-risk drinking rate. Conclusion: We found a variation in age-standardized mortality rate of boroughs in Seoul. The results suggest that policy makers should take into account socioeconomic environmental characteristics of community in developing community-based health promotion rather than focusing on lifestyle changes of residents.

Relationship between the time to positivity of blood culture and mortality according to the site of infection in sepsis

  • Um, Young Woo;Lee, Jae Hyuk;Jo, You Hwan;Kim, Joonghee;Kim, Yu Jin;Kwon, Hyuksool
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Emergency Medicine
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    • v.29 no.5
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    • pp.474-484
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    • 2018
  • Objective: The time to positivity (TTP) of blood culture reflects bacterial load and has been reported to be associated with outcome in bloodstream infections. This study was performed to evaluate the relationship between the TTP of blood culture and the mortality rates associated with sepsis and septic shock according to the site of infection. Methods: We performed a retrospective cohort study on patients with sepsis and septic shock. The rates of blood culture positivity and mortality as well as the relationship between the TTP and 28-day mortality rate were compared among patients with different sites of infection, such as the lungs, abdomen, urogenital tract, and other sites. Results: A total of 2,668 patients were included, and the overall mortality rate was 21.6%. The rates of blood culture positivity and mortality were different among the different infection sites. There was no relationship between the TTP and mortality rates of total, lung, and urogenital infections. Patients with abdominal infections showed a negative correlation between the TTP and 28-day mortality rate. In patients with abdominal infections, a TTP<20 hours was independently associated with 28-day mortality compared with patients with negative blood culture (hazard ratio, 1.73; 95% confidence interval, 1.16-2.58). However, there was no difference in mortality rates of patients with a $TTP{\geq}20$ hours and a negative blood culture. Conclusion: The shorter TTP in patients with abdominal infections in sepsis and septic shock was associated with a higher 28-day mortality rate.

Maternal, infant, and perinatal mortality statistics and trends in Korea between 2018 and 2020

  • Hyunkyung Choi;Ju-Hee Nho;Nari Yi;Sanghee Park;Bobae Kang;Hyunjung Jang
    • Korean Journal of Women Health Nursing
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    • v.28 no.4
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    • pp.348-357
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    • 2022
  • Purpose: This study aimed to identify maternal, infant, and perinatal mortality using the national population data of South Korea between 2018 and 2020, and to analyze mortality rates according to characteristics such as age, date of death, and cause of death in each group. This study updates the most recent study using 2009 to 2017 data. Methods: Analyses of maternal, infant, and perinatal mortality were done with data identified through the supplementary investigation system for cases of death from the Census of Population Dynamics data provided by Statistics Korea from 2018 to 2020. Results: Between 2018 and 2020, a total of 99 maternal deaths, 2,427 infant deaths, and 2,408 perinatal deaths were identified from 901,835 live births. The maternal mortality ratio was 11.3 deaths per 100,000 live births in 2018; it decreased to 9.9 in 2019 but increased again to 11.8 in 2020. The maternal mortality ratio increased steeply in women over the age of 40 years. An increasing trend in the maternal mortality ratio was found for complications related to the puerperium and hypertensive disorders. Both infant and perinatal mortality continued to decrease, from 2.8 deaths per 1,000 live births in 2018 to 2.5 in 2020 and from 2.8 in 2018 to 2.5 in 2020, respectively. Conclusion: Overall, the maternal, infant, and perinatal mortality statistics showed improvements. However, more attention should be paid to women over 40 years of age and specific causes of maternal deaths, which should be taken into account in Korea's maternal and child health policies.

Actuarial analysis of a reverse mortgage applying a modified Lee-Carter model based on the projection of the skewness of the mortality (왜도 예측을 이용한 Lee-Carter 모형의 주택연금 리스크 분석)

  • Lee, Hangsuck;Park, Sangdae;Baek, Hyeyoun
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.31 no.1
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    • pp.77-96
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    • 2018
  • A reverse mortgage provides a pension until the death for the insured or last survivor. Long-term risk management is important to estimate the contractual period of a reverse mortgage. It is also necessary to study prediction methods of mortality rates that appropriately reflect the improvement trend of the mortality rate since the extension of the life expectancy, which is the main cause of aging, can have a serious impact on the pension financial soundness. In this study, the Lee-Carter (LC) model reflects the improvement in mortality rates; in addition, multiple life model are also applied to a reverse mortgage. The mortality prediction method by the traditional LC model has shown a dramatic improvement in the mortality rate; therefore, this study suggests mortality projection based on the projection of the skewness for the mortality that has been applied to appropriately reflect the improvement trend of the mortality rate. This paper calculates monthly payments using future mortality rates based on the projection of the skewness of the mortality. As a result, the mortality rates based on this method less reflect the mortality improvement effect than the mortality rates based on a traditional LC model and a larger pension amount is calculated. In conclusion, this method is useful to forecast future mortality trend results in a significant reduction of longevity risk. It can also be used as a risk management method to pay appropriate monthly payments and prevent insufficient payment due to overpayment by the issuing institution and the guarantee institution of the reverse mortgage.

Census Population vs. Registration Population: Which Population Denominator Should be used to Calculate Geographical Mortality (센서스인구 대 주민등록인구: 지역별 사망률 연구에서 어느 인구를 분모로 사용하여야 하나?)

  • Hwang, In-A;Yun, Sung-Cheol;Lee, Moo-Song;Lee, Sang-Il;Jo, Min-Woo;Lee, Min-Jung;Khang, Young-Ho
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.38 no.2
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    • pp.147-153
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    • 2005
  • Objectives: Studies on the geographical differences in mortality tend to use a census population, rather than a registration population, as the denominator of mortality rates in South Korea. However, an administratively determined registration population would be the logical denominator, as the geographical areas for death certificates (numerator) have been determined by the administratively registered residence of the deceased, rather than the actual residence at the time of death. The purpose of this study was to examine the differences in the total number of a district population, and the associated district-specific mortality indicators, when two different measures as a population denominator (census and registration) were used. Methods: Population denominators were obtained from census and registration population data, and the numbers of deaths (numerators) were calculated from raw death certificate data. Sex- and 5-year age-specific numbers for the populations and deaths were used to compute sex- and age-standardized mortality rates (by direct standardization methods) and standardized mortality ratios (by indirect standardization methods). Bland-Altman tests were used to compare district populations and district-specific mortality indicators according to the two different population denominators. Results : In 1995, 9 of 232 (3.9%) districts were not included in the 95% confidence interval (CI) of the population differences. A total of 8 (3.4%) among 234 districts had large differences between their census and registration populations in 2000, which exceeded the 95% CI of the population differences. Most districts (13 of 17) exceeding the 95% CI were rural. The results of the sex- and age-standardized mortality rates showed 15 (6.5%) and 16 (6.8%) districts in 1995 and 2000, respectively, were not included in the 95% CI of the differences in their rates. In addition, the differences in the standardized mortality ratios using the two different population denominators were significantly greater among 14 districts in 1995 and 11 districts in 2002 than the 95% CI. Geographical variations in the mortality indicators, using a registration population, were greater than when using a census population. Conclusion: The use of census population denominators may provide biased geographical mortality indicators. The geographical mortality rates when using registration population denominators are logical, but do not necessarily represent the exact mortality rate of a certain district. The removal of districts with large differences between their census and registration populations or associated mortality indicators should be considered to monitor geographical mortality rates in South Korea.