• Title/Summary/Keyword: monte calro

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Monte Calro Analysis of Cancer Risk from Airborne Trace Metals (대기중 미량금속의 발암 위해도에 대한 몬테 카를로 분석)

  • 장미숙;이진홍
    • Journal of Korean Society for Atmospheric Environment
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    • v.18 no.6
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    • pp.465-474
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    • 2002
  • In order to reflect variability due to exposure factors as well as to assess uncertainty associated with cancer risk posed by airborne trace metals, a Monte Calro analysis has been made in this study. Input parameters for Monte Carlo analysis were developed or adjusted using body weight, lifetime, and exposure frequency of Koreans. Ambient distributions of toxic metals were founded to be lognormal distributions for most of them using goodness-of-fit tests. Thus, the 95% UCL and 95% LCL of carcinogenic metals were estimated by H-statistic method for lognormal distribution, respectively. The results of Monte Carlo analysis of 95% UCL showed that the 95th percentile risks for men and women were 1.2 and 1.1 times higher than an acceptable risk of 10$^{-5}$ , respectively. The probabilities which those risks exceed the acceptable risk were estimated to be 8% and 6%, respectively, while to be 95% and 94%, respectively on the basis of the minimum acceptable risk of 10$^{-6}$ , respectively. Approximately 90% of total cancer risk came from human carcinogens such as arsenic and hexavalent chromium. Therefore, it is necessary to properly manage both arsenic and hexavalent chromium emissions in the study area.

Is that possible to simulate daily runoff with one parameter? (하나 매개변수로 유출 모의 가능한가?)

  • Noh, Jaekyoung;An, Hyunuk;Lee, Jaenam
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2017.05a
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    • pp.29-29
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    • 2017
  • 유역의 물수지를 강수, 증발산, 토양수분저류, 유출 등 성분으로 구성하고, 토양수분저류 상태에 따라 증발산과 유출이 변화하는 식을 기본식으로 구성하였으며, 물수지를 개선하는 매개변수를 변수화하는 개념을 도입하여 다음 식의 모형을 개발하였다. 여기서, ETa는 실제증발산량, ETo는 잠재증발산량, Q는 유출량, S는 토양수분저류량이고, C1은 증발산, C2, ${\alpha}$는 유출반응, C3, C4는 매개변수 ${\alpha}$를 변수화시키는 데 관련한 매개변수이다. $$ETa(i)=(1-e^{-c1{\times}s(i)}){\times}ETo_{(i)}$$ $$Q_{(i)}=S_{(i)}{\times}(1-e^{-c2{\times}s(i)})^{[(c3+e^{-c4{\times}s(i)}){\times}a]}$$ 모형의 검증을 위해 Monte Calro 기법으로 최적 매개변수를 결정한 결과 수많은 매개변수 조합이 최적영역에 분포되는 것을 확인하였으며, 이를 바탕으로 매개변수 하나만 남겨 놓고 나머지 매개변수는 상수화시켜도 모의결과가 똑같다는 결과를 관찰하였으며, 이를 토대로 하나 매개변수만으로 일 유출 모의가 가능하다고 결론을 내렸다. 하나의 매개변수는 ${\alpha}$를 우선 추천하고, C1도 유역의 토지이용에 따라 증발산이 변화하기 때문에 의미있다고 판단하고 있다. 하나의 매개변수를 결정하는 방법은 유출 자료가 있으면 유출량으로, 없으면 유출률을 맞추는 방법이며, 일반화하기 쉽고 실용성이 매우 높은 것으로 평가된다. 유역면적 $209km^2$인 보령댐의 2007년부터 2009년까지 Monte Calro 기법으로 매개변수를 결정한 결과 C1=0.0196, C2=0.0023, C3=0.3230, C4=0.0051, ${\alpha}=2.3304$ 이었으며, 이 때 연평균 강우량 1221.2mm, 유출량 651.2mm, 유출률 53.3%이었으며, $R^2=0.833$, RMSE=2.073, NSE=0.831이었고, 관측 유출량 610.8mm, 유출률 50.0%였다. 매개변수 C1, C2, C3, C4를 고정시키고 유출률 50%에 이를 때 ${\alpha}$는 2.6946이었으며, 이 때 $R^2=0.831$, RMSE=2.102, NSE=0.826이었고, 매개변수 C2, C3, C4, ${\alpha}$를 고정시키고 유출률 50%에 이를 때 C1은 0.0255이었으며, 이 때 $R^2=0.833$, RMSE=2.083, NSE=0.829이었다. 한편 똑같은 자료로 탱크모형은 $R^2=0.79$, RMSE=2.43, NSE=0.77이었고, SWAT 모형은 $R^2=0.56$, RMSE=3.97, NSE=0.40으로 나타난 것과 비교할 때, 개발된 모형의 성능이 우수한 것이라 결론내릴 수 있었다.

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The implementation of Block Cipher Algorithm Correctness Test Module (블록 암호 알고리즘 정확성 테스트 모듈 구현)

  • 정성민;박성근;김석우;서창호;김일준
    • Proceedings of the Korea Institutes of Information Security and Cryptology Conference
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    • 2002.11a
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    • pp.564-568
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    • 2002
  • 정보보호 평가는 크게 시스템 평가인 CC평가와 암호모듈 평가인 CMVP평가고 나눌 수 있다. 본 논문은 암호모듈 평가 방법으로 북미 CMVP의 3가지 블록 알고리즘시험방법인 KAT(Known Answer Test), MCT(Monte Calro Test), MMT(Multi-block Message Test)를 JAVA환경에 적용하여 시범 구현하였다. 대상 알고리즘은 CMVP의 4가지 블록 알고리즘(DES, TDES, AES, Skipjack)을, 테스트 방법으로 MOVS, TMOVS, AESAVS를 선정하여 FIPS표준을 적용하였다. 구현 환경으로는 JCA기반의 Cryptix를 채택하여 CMVP의 블록 암호 알고리즘 테스트 시스템 중 일부를 구현하였다.

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A Multiple Unit Roots Test Based on Least Squares Estimator

  • Shin, Key-Il
    • Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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    • v.28 no.1
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    • pp.45-55
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    • 1999
  • Knowing the number of unit roots is important in the analysis of k-dimensional multivariate autoregressive process. In this paper we suggest simple multiple unit roots test statistics based on least squares estimator for the multivariate AR(1) process in which some eigenvalues are one and the rest are less than one in magnitude. The empirical distributions are tabulated for suggested test statistics. We have small Monte-Calro studies to compare the powers of the test statistics suggested by Johansen(1988) and in this paper.

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Sensitivity Analysis of Steel Frames Subjected to Progressive Collapse (철골구조물의 연쇄붕괴에 대한 민감도 해석)

  • Park, Jun-Hei;Hong, Su-Min;Kim, Jin-Koo
    • Proceedings of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute Conference
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    • 2008.04a
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    • pp.307-312
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    • 2008
  • Local damage may cause sequential collapse of structure, which is called progressive collapse. Current progressive collapse analysis is based on the mean value of design variables. This deterministic approach has a low reliability as it doesn't consider uncertainty of variables. In this study the sensitivity of design variables for progressive collapse of structure is evaluated by Monte Calro simulation and Tornado diagram. The analysis results show that the behaviour of model structures is highly sensitive to variation of the yield force of beams and the structural damping ratio.

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A Study on the Performance Characteristics of a Disk-type Drag Pump (원판형 드래그펌프의 성능특성에 관한 연구)

  • Hwang, Young-Kyu;Heo, Joong-Sik
    • Proceedings of the KSME Conference
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    • 2001.06e
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    • pp.643-648
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    • 2001
  • The direct simulation Monte Carlo(DSMC) method is applied to investigate steady and unsteady flow fields of a single-stage disk-type drag pump. Two different kinds of pumps are considered: the first one is a rotor-rotor combination, and the second one is a rotor-stator combination. The pumping channels are cut on a rotor and stator. The rotor and stator have 10 Archimedes' spiral blades, respectively. In the present DSMC method, the variable hard sphere model is used as a molecular model, and the no time counter method is employed as a collision sampling technique. For simulation of diatomic gas flows, the Borgnakke-Larsen phenomenological model is adopted to redistribute the translational and internal energies. The DSMC results are in good agreement with the experimental data.

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Performance Analysis of a Linear Micro-actuator Operated by Radiometric Phenomena in Rarefied Gas Flow Field (희박기체 상태의 라디오미터릭 효과에 의해 구동되는 선형 마이크로 액추에이터의 성능해석)

  • 황영규;허중식
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers B
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    • v.26 no.10
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    • pp.1394-1405
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    • 2002
  • The performance of micro-actuators utilizing radiometric forces are studied numerically. The Knudsen number based on gas density and characteristic dimension is varied from near-continuum to highly rarefied conditions. Direct simulation Monte Carlo(DSMC) calculations have been performed to estimate the performance of the micro-actuators. In the present DSMC method, the variable hard sphere molecular model and no time counter technique are used to simulate the molecular collision kinetics. For simulation of diatomic gas flows, the Borgnakke-Larsen phenomenological model is adopted to redistribute the translational and internal energies.

The Effect of the Collision Process Between Molecules on the Rates of Thermal Relaxation of the Translational-Rotational-Vibrational Energy Exchange (분자간 충돌과정에 따른 병진-회전-진동에너지의 이완율)

  • Heo, Joong-Sik
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers B
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    • v.28 no.12
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    • pp.1494-1500
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    • 2004
  • A zero-dimensional direct simulation Monte Carlo(DSMC) model is developed for simulating diatomic gas including vibrational kinetics. The method is applied to the simulation of two systems: vibrational relaxation of a simple harmonic oscillator and translational-rotational-vibrational energy exchange process under heating and cooling. In the present DSMC method, the variable hard sphere molecular model and no time counter technique are used to simulate the molecular collision kinetics. For simulation of diatomic gas flows, the Borgnakke-Larsen phenomenological model is adopted to redistribute the translational and internal energies.