• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제8권2호
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• pp.759-770
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• 2021

Using a DCC - GARCH model analysis, this paper examines the existence of financial contagion from the U.S. stock market to the Vietnamese and the Philippine stock markets during the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic crisis. We use daily data from the S&P 500 (U.S.), VN-Index (Vietnam), and the PSEi (the Philippines). As a result, there is no evidence of contagion from the U.S stock market to the Philippine stock market that can be found during global financial crisis, while the Vietnamese market is influenced by this effect. Besides, both these developing stock markets (the Vietnamese and Philippine stock markets) are influenced by the contagion effect in COVID-19 pandemic crisis. Another finding is that the contagion effect during the coronavirus pandemic crisis in Vietnam is smaller than that during the global financial crisis, however, the opposite is the case for the Philippines. It is noticed that the Philippines seems to be more affected by the contagion effect from the COVID-19 pandemic than Vietnam at the time of this study. Because financial contagion is important for monetary policy, asset pricing, risk measurement, and portfolio allocation, the findings in this paper may give some useful information for policymakers and investors.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제8권2호
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• pp.15-23
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• 2021

This study investigates the presence of the day-of-the-week anomaly in exchange rate for 30 developing countries with free floating exchange rate regimes using daily data from January 2, 2011 to December 31, 2019. First, we apply the GARCH panel to estimate the intraday effect for all the sampled countries. Second, we run poolability test to check whether the coefficients of the GARCH panel are the same for all countries sampled. The result of poolability test rejects the homogeneity assumption. This implies that our sample countries contain heterogeneity. Third, we apply mean-group estimation by averaging the coefficients for all individual GARCH estimations. Fourth, we divided our sample of developing countries into three groups based on capital restriction index for the reason that the effect of monetary policy on the exchange rate depends on the degree of capital account liberalization. The empirical evidence for the return equation suggests that Mondays are connected with lower volatility whereas Thursdays experiences higher return compared to Tuesdays. The lowest estimated coefficient for full sample, group 1 and group 2, is Friday, but for group 2 is Thursday. We find similar result for the volatility equations, which show that Monday returns are lower compared to Tuesday.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제9권8호
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• pp.1-6
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• 2022

This paper uses the gravity model estimated by the random effect method to analyze the factors affecting Vietnam's coffee export turnover for the period 2007-2020 major markets according to statistics from the General Statistics Office and the General Department of Customs. Coffee export turnover was collected from the General Statistics Office, General Department of Customs, and Vietnam Cacao Coffee Association. The authors calculated the price of coffee based on output and export value from data on coffee export turnover; the authors calculated the economic gap based on population and Gross Domestic Product data (reference: geographic distance metrics on the website: http://www.distancefromto.net/countries.php) and other data was collected based on the databases of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, the International Monetary Fund, and World Bank organizations. The results of the study show that from 2007 to 2020, the factors of Vietnam's export price of coffee, geographical distance, Gross Domestic Product of the importing country and Gross Domestic Product of Vietnam, the population of Vietnam, the economic gap between Vietnam and the importing country, the openness of the economy, all have an impact on Vietnam's coffee export turnover. Finally, some conclusions about the policy's impact are made based on the empirical results of the paper.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제9권2호
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• pp.37-47
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• 2022

This study uses monthly data from January 2009 to December 2020 to examine the effectiveness of foreign currency intervention and its influence on monetary policy in Vietnam using a Hierarchical Bayesian VAR model. The findings suggest that foreign exchange intervention has little influence on the exchange rate level or exports, but it can significantly minimize exchange rate volatility. As a result, we can demonstrate that the claim that Vietnam is a currency manipulator is false. As well, the forecast error variance decomposition results reveal that interest rate differentials mainly determine the exchange rate level instead of foreign exchange intervention. Moreover, the findings suggest that foreign exchange intervention is not effectively sterilized in Vietnam. Inflation is caused by an increase in international reserves, which leads to an expansion of the money supply and a decrease in interest rates. Although the impact of foreign exchange intervention grows in tandem with the growth of international reserves, if the sterilizing capacity does not improve, rising foreign exchange intervention will instead result in inflation. Finally, we use a rolling window approach to examine the time-varying effect of foreign exchange intervention.

• 국제학술발표논문집
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• The 9th International Conference on Construction Engineering and Project Management
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• pp.3-10
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• 2022

An estimated investment gap of $176 billion needs to be filled over the next ten years to improve America's inland waterway transportation systems. Many of these infrastructure systems are now beyond their original 50-year design life and are often behind in maintenance due to funding constraints. Therefore, long-term maintenance strategies (i.e., asset management (AM) strategies) are needed to optimize investments across these waterway systems to improve their condition. Two common AM strategies include policy-driven maintenance and performance-driven maintenance. Currently, limited research exists on selecting the optimal AM approach for managing inland waterway transportation assets. Therefore, the goal of this study is to provide a decision model that can be used to select the optimal alternative between the two AM approaches by considering key uncertainties such as asset condition, asset test results, and asset failure. We achieve this goal by addressing the decision problem as a single-criterion problem, which calculates each alternative's expected value and certain equivalence using allocated monetary values to determine the recommended alternative for optimally maintaining navigable waterways. The decision model considers estimated and predicted values based on the current state of the infrastructure. This research concludes that the performance-based approach is the optimal alternative based on the expected value obtained from the analysis. This research sets the stage for further studies on fiscal constraints that will effectively optimize these assets condition.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제9권1호
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• pp.177-187
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• 2022

Theoretical literature agrees on the interaction between financial instability and economic activity but explains it's dynamic in two points of view: one is that the transmission mechanism occurs in one unique regime and the other reckons a shift of regime leads to the alteration of the transmission mechanism. This study aims to find evidence of the multi-regime transmission for ASEAN developing countries. The author employs the technique of Threshold vector auto regression using the financial stress index standing for financial instability. Monthly data is collected, covering a period long enough with many episodes of high stress in recent decades. There are two conclusions: (1) A financial shock has a negative and stronger impact on economic activity during a high-stress period than it does during a low-stress period; (2) the response of economic activity to a negative financial shock during high-stress periods is stronger than it is during normal times. The findings point to the importance of the financial stress index as an additional early warning indicator for the real economy sector, as well as the positive effect that a reduction in financial stress may have on economic activity, implying the importance of "unconventional" monetary policy in times of high financial stress.

• 한국빅데이터학회지
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• 제7권2호
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• pp.225-234
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• 2022

본 논문은 우리나라 국가 및 기업의 신용 리스크 네트워크를 추정하고 최근 거시경제 상황에 따른 국가-기업 및 기업-기업 간의 연결성 변화를 살펴본다. 2015년 11월부터 2022년 10월까지의 신용부도스왑(CDS) 스프레드 데이터를 이용하여 네트워크를 Graphical Lasso로 추정한 결과, 우리나라 국가 및 기업 신용리스크 간의 연결성이 유의미하게 존재한다. 특히, 수출입 및 외환 거래를 담당하는 은행 부문의 연결성이 전반적으로 높은 편이다. 통화정책 긴축 기조가 두드러진 2022년 들어서는 공통 익스포져가 확대되어 이러한 연결성이 커진 것으로 보인다.

• 유통과학연구
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• 제21권12호
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• pp.127-140
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• 2023

Purpose: In a situation where the local economy and alley economy are stagnant, efforts to revitalize the role of small business owners need a virtuous cycle system through consumers' consumption power, not just cash support. Research design, data, and methodology: The study site focuses on Daedeok-gu, the first to introduce local currency as a policy. In the case of the store survey, 254 stores out of 300 stores registered with local currency were analyzed, and the consumer survey was conducted on 1,394 out of 1,500 local people using local currency. Statistical analysis was performed using the SPSS. Result: As a result of time-series checking whether local economic activities are carried out smoothly due to the nature of the local currency, the average daily sales of Daedeok-gu increased by 388,980won compared to 2019. This proved through empirical research in the region that local currency played a priming role in bringing opportunities and rehabilitation to the local commercial districts and small business owners. Conclusions: In the monetary function of simply buying and selling value through payment, points supported as incentives can be used as local currency while inducing direct participation in solving social problems, and the concurrent effect of causing problem-solving and regional economic vitality began to sprout.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• 제27권3호
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• pp.243-269
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• 2023

The multidimensional poverty index is an indicator system established for defining and evaluating poverty, to understand poverty in dimensions beyond just monetary scarcity. Based on income, education, health, living standards, and social dimensions, this article measures and analyzes the level of multidimensional poverty in Xinjiang using the AlkireFoster method, with cross-sectional data obtained from a 2022 survey. Probit model is constructed for regression analysis, further considering the impact of education on enhancing feasible capabilities and alleviating multidimensional poverty at the post-poverty alleviation era. The data shows that many people still face significant challenges from the perspective of multidimensional poverty; the decomposition results of each dimension show that education contributes more to the multidimensional poverty; the regression analysis results show that the higher the education level, the lower the multidimensional poverty; heterogeneity analysis revealed that the inhibitory effect of education on multidimensional poverty is greater for females than males, and the poverty reduction effect of education mainly concentrates on middle-aged and older individuals. This article is meaningful for exploring strategies to alleviate multidimensional poverty in ethnic minority regions in frontier areas in the new era, accelerating regional economic development, and achieving shared prosperity.

• 한국중재학회지:중재연구
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• 제17권2호
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• pp.189-219
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• 2007

Mediation is type of intervention in which the disputing parties accept the offer of the judge or a third party to recommend a solution for their controversy. Mediation differs from arbitration in being a voluntary resolution rather than a judicial procedure. Thus, the parties to the dispute are not bound to accept the mediator's recommendation. Resort to mediation has become increasingly frequent for civil disputes. Mediation has been successful in many cases of civil conflict. Mediation has become increasingly important for monetary disputes as well, particularly in damage cases. While most people consider mediation a far superior experience to court, everything I tell you a mediator should not do is something that at least one mediator I have dealt with has done to a client. In theory, a mediator should never share anything you tell him or her without your permission. In theory a mediator should not "spring" evaluations on anyone in a mediation without your permission (e.g. a mediator should never say "your case is worth \OOOO and I just told the other side that). In theory a mediator should not browbeat or threaten you. At the end, usually about 55% of the time with a good mediator in Kwangju Appellate Court in 2003, the parties reach an agreement that is in their best interests. If they decide to sign off on a signed agreement, the signed agreement is binding. I obviously feel mediation is a very good thing and the numbers and surveys bear me out. This article is written about how mediation is proceeded, what is the realities, what is the problem and what is the activating way. For this study, I research with legal sociological approach using Korean Judicial Year Boot judicial document and my experience as meditator in Kwangju District Court.