• Proceedings of the Korean Operations and Management Science Society Conference
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• 2000.10a
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• pp.37-39
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• 2000

The purpose of this paper is to present a neural network model based on change-point detection for the prediction of the U.S. Treasury Securities. Interest rates have been studied by a number of researchers since they strongly affect other economic and financial parameters. Contrary to other chaotic financial data, the movement of interest rates has a series of change points due to the monetary policy of the U.S. government. The basic concept of this proposed model is to obtain intervals divided by change points, to identify them as change-point groups, and to use them in interest rates forecasting. The proposed model consists of three stages. The first stage is to detect successive change points in the interest rates dataset. The second stage is to forecast the change-point group with the backpropagation neural network (BPN). The final stage is to forecast the output with BPN. This study then examines the predictability of the integrated neural network model for interest rates forecasting using change-point detection.

• The Journal of Industrial Distribution & Business
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• v.9 no.9
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• pp.15-23
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• 2018

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to examine the determinants of non-bank depository institutions (non-bank financial corporations) lending to firms. The paper aims to contribute to the existing literature by providing empirical evidence from firm-level data and unveiling factors related to access to non-bank financial corporations by firms. Research design, data, and methodology - We used the data on borrowing by firms from CRETOP from years 2008 to 2011. Using the manufacturing industry, we examined what firm-level characteristics explained the increase in borrowing from non-bank financial corporations rather than the banks. Results - Analyzing the firm-level data from 2008 to 2011, we found that firms were more likely to borrow from non-bank financial insti­tutions as the size of the firm increases, implying that large firms have more access to non-bank financing than small and medium-sized firms. In addition, it also showed that small and medium-sized firms moved to non-bank financial corporations for loans. Conclusion - Non-bank depository institutions are not a sub­stitute for bank lending to firms. More specifically, they replace bank lending to firms mostly for large firms rather than small and medium-sized firms. Also, collateral and other firm-level characteristics do not matter in accounting for non-bank lending to firms.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.7 no.7
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• pp.35-47
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• 2020

An economic downturn can occurred through unexpected events in various fields, such as the subprime mortgage crisis and the outbreak of Coronavirus Disease-2019 (COVID-19). Trade credit is important for small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), especially during a monetary contraction, as it is the last option for firms that lack bank credit. This study aims to determine whether trade credit is profitable for the buyer and supplier firms during and after a financial crisis. We use panel data consisting of all trade credit transactions and financial statements of 5,751 Korean firms during the period 2008-2012. It shows that trade credit is more profitable for both buyers and suppliers in the post-crisis period than during the crisis. Moreover, trade payable is more effective for unconstrained buyers than for constrained buyers. Finally, a mixed strategy is superior to an aggressive or passive strategy of SMEs. The results suggest less profitability of trade credit during a period of contraction and greater sensitivity of the buyer SMEs, emphasizing the idiosyncratic liquidity strategy of each firm. This study can be helpful to develop a strategy of profitable trade credit for SMEs and to establish a policy of managing liquidity for the authority.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.7 no.11
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• pp.177-184
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• 2020

This paper analyzes factors affecting corporate investment decisions in economic groups listed on the Vietnam stock market. The panel data of the research sample includes 39 economic groups listed on the Vietnam stock market from 2009 to 2019. The Generalized Least Square (GLS) is employed to address econometric issues and to improve the accuracy of the regression coefficients. In this research, the investment rate is a dependent variable. Cash-flow (CF), Investment opportunities (ROA), Fixed capital intensity (FCI), Leverage (LEV), Sales growth (GR), Size (SZ), Business risk (RISK) are independent variables in the study. The model results show that cash flow and sales growth have the same impact on investment decisions of economic groups in Vietnam. In addition, investment opportunities have a negative impact on the capital investment decisions of economic groups. The remaining factors include fixed capital intensity, leverage, firm size, and business risks that have a weak and insignificant impact on capital investment decisions of economic groups in Vietnam. The findings of this article are useful for business administrators, and helping business managers make the right financial decisions. Besides, the research results are also meaningful to money management agencies. The authors recommend that the State Bank of Vietnam should maintain a sustainable monetary policy.

• Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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• v.36 no.3
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• pp.203-211
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• 2010

This study examines a cointegrated vector autoregressive (VAR) model where parameters are subject to switch across the regimes in the term structure of interest rates. To employ the regime switching framework, the Markov-switching vector error correction model (MS-VECM) is allowed to the regime shifts in the vector of intercept terms, the variance-covariance terms, the error correction terms, and the autoregressive coefficient parts. The corresponding approaches are illustrated using the term structure of interest rates in the US Treasury bonds over the period of 1958 to 2009. Throughout the modeling procedure, we find that the MS-VECM can form a statistically adequate representation of the term structure of interest rate in the US Treasury bonds. Moreover, the regime switching effects are analyzed in connection with the historical government monetary policy and with the recent global financial crisis. Finally, the results from the comparisons both in information criteria and in forecasting exercises with and without the regime switching lead us to conclude that the models in the presence of regime dependence are superior to the linear VECM model.

• Journal of Digital Convergence
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• v.11 no.10
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• pp.445-451
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• 2013

Cyber terrorism has lately aimed at major domestic financial institutions and broadcasters. A large number of PCs have been infected, so normal service is difficult. As a result, the monetary damage was reported to be very high. It is important to recognize the importance of big data. But security and privacy efforts for big data is at a relatively low level, therefore the marketing offort is very active. This study concerns the analysis of Big Data industry and Big data security threats that are intelligent and the changes in defense technology. Big data, security countermeasures for the future are also presented.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.8 no.11
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• pp.203-212
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• 2021

Theoretically, economic growth necessitates financial liberalization. Thus, the current research examines the effect of financial liberalization on economic growth in emerging nations, with a particular focus on Egypt and Saudi Arabia. To determine this effect, the study employs a model that uses Gross Domestic Product growth as the dependent variable and the following macroeconomic variables as financial liberalization indices: Broad money as a percentage of GDP, Domestic bank credit to the private sector as a percentage of GDP, Monetary sector credit to the private sector as a percentage of GDP, Net inflows of foreign direct investment as a percentage of GDP. All data is annual data of Egypt and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia for the period 1970-2018 obtained from the World Bank open data website. The empirical investigation employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach. The findings indicate that, after more than three decades of implementation, both countries' financial and external liberalization policies do not have a favorable effect on their economies' growth rates. Additionally, this study has led us to conclude that any financial liberalization policy in both countries must be preceded by the strengthening of these countries' financial development and institutional frameworks, as well as the achievement of macroeconomic stability.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.8 no.12
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• pp.31-38
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• 2021

This study contributes to the existing literature and tries to analyze the validity of the Fisher hypothesis in the Philippines. Using monthly data from January 1995 to December 2020, the empirical analysis used the Engle-Granger and Johansen cointegration testing technique. The correlation coefficient suggests a strong positive association. All things being equal, a rise in inflation leads to a rise in the nominal interest rate. The unit-root tests show that inflation and the nominal interest rate are both stationary. Based on both Engle-Granger and cointegrating regression Durbin-Watson tests, the nominal interest rate and inflation are cointegrated. Likewise, the results from Johansen cointegration indicate that there exists a long-run relationship between the variables. However, we rejected a one-to-one relationship between nominal interest rate and inflation. The error correction term coefficient (ECM) shows that it is statistically significant suggesting that the nominal interest rate adjusts to the inflation rate with a lag. The Pair-wise Granger Causality test reported a bi-directional causal relationship between nominal interest rate and inflation. Inflation targeting has been the monetary policy framework of choice for most central banks. In essence, the conclusions of this study are useful to central banks because they help them better comprehend the long-run equilibrium relationship between the nominal interest rate and inflation.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.8 no.4
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• pp.1-9
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• 2021

UAE has rapidly developed into one of the leading global financial hubs, with significant transformations in its stock exchanges. In its attempt at economic diversification in the last two decades, the country has also taken a lead in the GCC region in introducing extensive reforms to attract FDI to the Emirates. However, oil price volatilities have posed a significant challenge to all oil-exporting countries. The main aim of this study is to explore the impact of economic diversification and oil price on the UAE stock market. The study applies Granger Causality and Vector Autoregressive Model on monthly Abu Dhabi stock exchange index, Dubai Fateh crude oil spot price, and FDI inflows during 2001-19. The short-term interbank rate has been included as a monetary policy variable. The results show a substantial difference between the two phases of reforms. Oil price and Abu Dhabi stock index show bidirectional relationship during 2001-09 but no causality was found during 2010-19. Furthermore, the second phase was characterized by unidirectional causation from FDI to ADX index. This study highlights FDI inflows as a key driver of stock market performance during the last decade and emphasizes the success of the intense reforms in the UAE initiated for the diversification of its economy.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.8 no.7
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• pp.31-42
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• 2021

This study aims to determine the relation between the real sector and the financial sector in underdeveloped areas in Nusa Tenggara, Indonesia. To facilitate understanding of these linkages, researchers use the logic of credit channel mechanism of monetary policy, financial intermediation, as well as supply leading and demand following theories. The research variables include economic growth, inflation, liquidity, and NPL at the provincial level, with a data sample from 2008 to 2019. This research uses VAR/VECM as the analysis tools. The findings of the long-term analysis in East Nusa Tenggara show there is a phenomenon of cost-push inflation as well as the negative relation between inflation and economic growth. The impact of liquidity on inflation is positive, while the impact of economic growth on inflation is negative. Meanwhile, in West Nusa Tenggara, the impact of economic growth on inflation is positive. On the other hand, the impact of liquidity and NPL on inflation and economic growth is negative. In conclusion, generally, the economy in West Nusa Tenggara is better than the East Nusa Tenggara. The key to improving the economy of Nusa Tenggara is by improving its liquidity. This can be done by increasing the volume of public savings to increase bank credit capacity.