• International Journal of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering
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• v.13 no.1
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• pp.352-366
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• 2021

To decrease Europe's harmful emissions, the European Union aims to substantially increase its offshore wind energy capacity. To further develop offshore wind energy, investment in ever-larger construction vessels is necessary. However, this market is characterised by seemingly unpredictable growth of market demand, turbine capacity and distance from shore. Currently it is difficult to deal with such market uncertainty within the ship design process. This research aims to develop a method that is able to deal with market uncertainty in early ship design by increasing knowledge when design freedom is still high. The method uses uncertainty modelling prior to the requirement definition stage by performing global research into the market, and during the concept design stage by iteratively co-evolving the vessel design and business case in parallel. The method consists of three parts; simulating an expected market from data, modelling multiple vessel designs, and an uncertainty model that evaluates the performance of the vessels in the market. The case study into offshore wind foundation installation vessels showed that the method can provide valuable insight into the effect of ship parameters like main dimensions, crane size and ship speed on the performance in an uncertain market. These results were used to create a value robust design, which is capable of handling uncertainty without changes to the vessel. The developed method thus provides a way to deal with market uncertainty in the early ship design process.

• Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers B
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• v.27 no.12
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• pp.1758-1765
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• 2003

Monte Carlo simulation(MC) method was used as an uncertainty assessment tool for gas flow measurement in this paper. Uncertainty sources for gas flow measurement were analyzed, and probability distribution characteristics of each source were discussed. Detailed MC methodology was described including the effect of the number of simulation. The uncertainty result was compared with that of the conventional sensitivity coefficient method, and it was revealed that the results were different from each other for this particular gas flow measurement case of which the modelling equation was nonlinear. The MC was comparatively simple, convenient and accurate as an uncertainty assessment method, especially in cases of complex, nonlinear measurement modelling equations. It was noted that the uncertainty assessment method should be selected carefully according to the mathematical characteristics of the measurement.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• v.6 no.1
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• pp.19-43
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• 2014

A risk assessment framework for evaluating building structures is implemented in this study. This framework allows considering sources of uncertainty both on structural capacity and seismic demand. In particular randomness on seismic load, incident angle, material properties, floor mass and structural damping are considered; in addition the choice of fibre modelling versus plastic hinge model is also considered as a source of uncertainty. The main objective of this work is to study the contribution of these sources of uncertainty on the fragilities of steel and steel-reinforced concrete composite 3D building structures. The fragility curves are expressed in the form of a two-parameter lognormal distribution where vertical statistics in conjunction with metaheuristic optimization are implemented for calculating the two parameters.

• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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• v.38 no.4
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• pp.379-385
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• 2005

The impact of the next influenza pandemic is difficult to predict. It is dependent on how virulent the virus is, how rapidly it spreads from population to population, and the effectiveness of prevention and response efforts. Despite the uncertainty about the magnitude of the next pandemic, estimates of the health and economic impact remain important to aid public health policy decisions and guide pandemic planning for health and emergency sectors. Planning ahead in preparation for an influenza pandemic, with its potentially very high morbidity and mortality rates, is essential for hospital administrators and public health officials. The estimat ion of pandemic impact is based on the previous pandemics- we had experienced at least 3 pandemics in 20th century. But the epidemiologi cal characteristics - ie, start season, the impact of 1st wave, pathogenicity and virulence of the viruses and the primary victims of population were quite different from one another. I reviewed methodology for estimation and modelling of pandemic impact and described some nations's results using them in their national preparedness plans. And then I showed the estimates of pandemic influenza impact in Korea with FluSurge and FluAid. And, I described the results of pandemic modelling with parameters of 1918 pandemic for the shake of education and training of the first-line responder health officials to the epidemics. In preparing influenza pandemics, the simulation and modelling are the keys to reduce the uncertainty of the future and to make proper policies to manage and control the pandemics.

• Smart Structures and Systems
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• v.10 no.4_5
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• pp.485-499
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• 2012

Mode shape expansion is useful in structural dynamic studies such as vibration based structural health monitoring; however most existing expansion methods can not consider the modelling errors in the finite element model and the measurement uncertainty in the modal properties identified from vibration data. This paper presents a reliable approach for expanding mode shapes with consideration of both the errors in analytical model and noise in measured modal data. The proposed approach takes the perturbed force as an unknown vector that contains the discrepancies in structural parameters between the analytical model and tested structure. A regularisation algorithm based on the Tikhonov solution incorporating the L-curve criterion is adopted to reduce the influence of measurement uncertainties and to produce smooth and optimised expansion estimates in the least squares sense. The Canton Tower benchmark problem established by the Hong Kong Polytechnic University is then utilised to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed expansion approach to the actual structure. The results from the benchmark problem studies show that the proposed approach can provide reliable predictions of mode shape expansion using only limited information on the operational modal data identified from the recorded ambient vibration measurements.

• Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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• v.9 no.3
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• pp.185-202
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• 2000

Uncertainty and variability in Life Cycle Assessment(LCA) have been significant key issues in LCA methodology with techniques in other research area such as social and political science. Variability is understood as stemming from inherent variations in the real world, while uncertainty comes from inaccurate measurements, lack of data, model assumptions, etc. Related articles in this issues were reviewed for classification, distinguish and elaboration of probabilistic/stochastic health risk analysis application in LCA. Concept of focal zone, streamlining technique, scenario modelling and Monte Carlo/Latin Hypercube risk analysis were applied to the uncertainty/variability analysis of health risk in LCA. These results show that this general framework of multi-disciplinary methodology between probabilistic health risk assessment and LCA was of benefit to decision making process by suppling information about input/output data sensitivity, health effect priority and health risk distribution. There should be further research needs for case study using this methodology.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.19 no.1
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• pp.10-21
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• 1987

Uncertainty analysis of the FLB accident is performed for KNU-1 using the response surface methodology and Monte Carlo simulation. The FLB analyses using the RELAP4/Mod6 were performed a number of times to generate the data base for the uncertainty analysis, along with the EM calculation for comparison purpose. Two kinds of input sets are utilized for response surface method to investigate and compare the effects of the uncertainty of input variables on the RCS peak pressure following a FLB. The first set is composed of six major plant operational parameters and the second set is composed of five major modelling parameters. It is found through the analysis of results that the uncertainties of modelling parameters have more influence on the RCS peak pressure than the uncertainties of plant operational parameters and that the extra margin of 9% of peak pressure is gained. And one of the assumptions of EM calculation, which is usually accepted as conservative is found to be erroneous, that is, the initial core inlet temperature is found to act negatively on the RCS pressure following a FLB.

• 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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• 1992.10b
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• pp.193-196
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• 1992

When there exist parameter uncertainty, modelling errors and nonminimum phase zeros in control object system. the stability robustness of conventional LQG and LOG/LTR methods are not satisfactory[2, 8]. Since these methods are performed on the infinite horizon, it is very hard to establish exact design parameters and thus they have lots of problems to be applied to real systems, So in this paper we propose RHLQG/FIRF optimal controller which has robust stability against parameter uncertainty, nonminimum phase zeros and modelling errors. This method uses only the information around at present and therefore shows good performance even when we do not know exact design parameters. We here compare LQG and LQG/LTR method with RHLQG/FIRF controller and exemplify that RHLQG/FIRF controller has better robust stability performance via simulations.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.50 no.2
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• pp.280-291
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• 2018

In the framework of OECD/NEA Working Group on Fuel Safety, a RIA fuel-rod-code Benchmark Phase I was organized in 2010-2013. It consisted of four experiments on highly irradiated fuel rodlets tested under different experimental conditions. This benchmark revealed the need to better understand the basic models incorporated in each code for realistic simulation of the complicated integral RIA tests with high burnup fuel rods. A second phase of the benchmark (Phase II) was thus launched early in 2014, which has been organized in two complementary activities: (1) comparison of the results of different simulations on simplified cases in order to provide additional bases for understanding the differences in modelling of the concerned phenomena; (2) assessment of the uncertainty of the results. The present paper provides a summary and conclusions of the second activity of the Benchmark Phase II, which is based on the input uncertainty propagation methodology. The main conclusion is that uncertainties cannot fully explain the difference between the code predictions. Finally, based on the RIA benchmark Phase-I and Phase-II conclusions, some recommendations are made.

• Journal of Coastal Disaster Prevention
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• v.6 no.3
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• pp.111-120
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• 2019

In coastal morphological modelling, there are a number of input factors: wave height, water depth, sand particle size, bed friction coefficients, coastal structures and so forth. Measurements or estimates of these input data may include uncertainties due to errors by the measurement or hind-casting methods. Therefore, it is necessary to consider the uncertainty of each input data and the range of the uncertainty during the evaluation of numerical results. In this study, three uncertainty factors are considered with regard to the prediction of coastal erosion in Ilsan beach located in Ilsan-dong, Ulsan metropolitan city. Those are wave diffraction effect of XBeach model, wave input scenario and the specification of the coastal structure. For this purpose, the values of mean wave direction, significant wave height and the height of the submerged breakwater were adjusted respectively and the followed numerical results of morphological changes are analyzed. There were erosion dominant patterns as the wave direction is perpendicular to Ilsan beach, the higher significant wave height, and the lower height of the submerged breakwater. Furthermore, the rate of uncertainty impacts among mean wave direction, significant wave height and the height of the submerged breakwater are compared. In the study area, the uncertainty influence by the wave input scenario was the largest, followed by the height of the submerged breakwater and the mean wave direction.