• Title/Summary/Keyword: model predictions

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The Designs for Prediction of Future Reliability Using the Stochastic Reliabilit

  • Oh, Chung-Hwan;Kim, Bok-Mahn
    • Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.131-139
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    • 1993
  • The newly proposed model of the future reliability results in earlier fault-fixes having a greater effect than the fault which make the greatest contribution to the overall failure rate tend to show themselves earlier, and so are fixed earlier. The suggested model allows a variety of reliability measures to be calculated. Predictions of total execution time(debugging time) is to achieve a target reliability. This model could also apply to computer-hardware reliability growth resulting from the elimination of design error and fault.

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Small-signal Analysis of the Full bridge ZVZCS converter (풀-브릿지 영전압 영전류 컨버터의 소신호 모델링)

  • Choi, Hang-Seok;Cho, B.H.
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 1999.07f
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    • pp.2518-2521
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    • 1999
  • A Full-bridge zero-voltage zero-current switching (ZVZCS) converter using transformer auxiliary winding is analyzed. A complete small-signal model for the control scheme is developed. The propoed model is accurate up to half the switching frequency. The dynamic characteristics are compared with those of the zero-voltage switching converter and buck converter. Model predictions are confirmed by experimental measurements.

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A Study on Dioxin Reduction Characteristics of Rapid Cooling Type Circulating Fluidized Bed Heat Exchanger (급속냉각형 순환유동층 열교환기의 다이옥신 저감성능 연구)

  • Park, Sang-il
    • Proceedings of the SAREK Conference
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    • 2008.06a
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    • pp.1231-1236
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    • 2008
  • The flow and heat transfer performance were measured at high temperatures in CFB heat exchanger with multiple risers and downcomers. The theoretical model for predicting heat exchanger performance was developed in this study. The model predictions were compared with the measured heat transfer rates to show relatively good agreement. The maximum gas cooling rate was $20,300^{\circ}C/sec$, and the dioxin reduction rate was 68%.

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Finite Element Analysis of Pivot Stiffness for Tilting Pad Bearings and Comparison to Hertzian Contact Model Calculations (유한 요소 해석을 통해 계산된 틸팅 패드 베어링의 피봇 강성과 Hertzian 접촉 모델 해석 결과 비교)

  • Lee, Tae Won;Kim, Tae Ho
    • Tribology and Lubricants
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    • v.30 no.4
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    • pp.205-211
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    • 2014
  • Recent studies emphasize the importance of pivot stiffness in the analysis of tilting pad bearings (TPBs). The present paper develops a finite element model of the pad pivot and compares the predicted pivot stiffness to the results of Hertzian contact model calculations. Specifically, a finite element analysis generates tetrahedral mesh models with ~40,000 nodes for a ball-socket pivot and ~50,000 nodes for a rocker-back pivot. These models assume a frictionless boundary condition in the contact area. Increasing the applied loads on the pad in conjunction with increasing time steps ensures rapid convergence during the nonlinear numerical analysis. Predictions are performed using the developed finite element model for increasing the differential diameters between the pad pivot (or ball) and the bearing housing (or socket). The predictions show that the pivot contact area increases with decreasing differential diameters and increasing applied loads. Further, the maximum deformation occurring at the pivot center increases with increasing differential diameters and increasing applied loads. The pivot stiffness increases nonlinearly with decreasing differential diameters and increasing applied loads. Comparisons of results of the developed finite element model to those of Hertzian contact model calculations assuming a small contact area show that the latter model underestimates the pivot stiffnesses predicted by the finite element models of the ball-socket and rocker-back pivots, particularly for small differential diameters. This result implies the need for cautionduring the design of pivot stiffness by the Hertzian contact model.

Shear strength estimation of RC deep beams using the ANN and strut-and-tie approaches

  • Yavuz, Gunnur
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.57 no.4
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    • pp.657-680
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    • 2016
  • Reinforced concrete (RC) deep beams are structural members that predominantly fail in shear. Therefore, determining the shear strength of these types of beams is very important. The strut-and-tie method is commonly used to design deep beams, and this method has been adopted in many building codes (ACI318-14, Eurocode 2-2004, CSA A23.3-2004). In this study, the efficiency of artificial neural networks (ANNs) in predicting the shear strength of RC deep beams is investigated as a different approach to the strut-and-tie method. An ANN model was developed using experimental data for 214 normal and high-strength concrete deep beams from an existing literature database. Seven different input parameters affecting the shear strength of the RC deep beams were selected to create the ANN structure. Each parameter was arranged as an input vector and a corresponding output vector that includes the shear strength of the RC deep beam. The ANN model was trained and tested using a multi-layered back-propagation method. The most convenient ANN algorithm was determined as trainGDX. Additionally, the results in the existing literature and the accuracy of the strut-and-tie model in ACI318-14 in predicting the shear strength of the RC deep beams were investigated using the same test data. The study shows that the ANN model provides acceptable predictions of the ultimate shear strength of RC deep beams (maximum $R^2{\approx}0.97$). Additionally, the ANN model is shown to provide more accurate predictions of the shear capacity than all the other computed methods in this study. The ACI318-14-STM method was very conservative, as expected. Moreover, the study shows that the proposed ANN model predicts the shear strengths of RC deep beams better than does the strut-and-tie model approaches.

Comparisons of RDII Predictions Using the RTK-based and Regression Methods (RTK 방법 및 회귀분석 방법을 이용한 RDII 예측 결과 비교)

  • Kim, Jungruyl;Lee, Jaehyun;Oh, Jeill
    • Journal of Korean Society of Water and Wastewater
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    • v.30 no.2
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    • pp.179-185
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    • 2016
  • In this study, the RDII predictions were compared using two methodologies, i.e., the RTK-based and regression methods. Long-term (1/1/2011~12/31/2011) monitoring data, which consists of 10-min interval streamflow and the amount of precipitation, were collected at the domestic study area (1.36 km2 located in H county), and used for the construction of the RDII prediction models. The RTK method employs super position of tri-triangles, and each triangle (called, unit hydrograph) is defined by three parameters (i.e., R, T and K) determined/optimized using Genetic Algorithm (GA). In regression method, the MovingAverage (MA) filtering was used for data processing. Accuracies of RDII predictions from these two approaches were evaluated by comparing the root mean square error (RMSE) values from each model, in which the values were calculated to 320.613 (RTK method) and 420.653 (regression method), respectively. As a results, the RTK method was found to be more suitable for RDII prediction during extreme rainfall event, than the regression method.

UV/blue Light-induced Fluorescence for Assessing Apple Quality (자외선 유도 형광의 사과 성숙도 평가 적용)

  • Noh, Hyun-Kwon;Lu, Renfu
    • Journal of Biosystems Engineering
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    • v.35 no.2
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    • pp.124-131
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    • 2010
  • Chlorophyll fluorescence has been researched for assessing fruit post-harvest quality and condition. The objective of this preliminary research was to investigate the potential of fluorescence spectroscopy for measuring apple fruit quality. Ultraviolet (UV) and blue light was used as an excitation source for inducing fluorescence in apples. Fluorescence spectra were measured from 'Golden Delicious' (GD) and 'Red Delicious' (RD) apples using a visible/near-infrared spectrometer after one, three, and five minutes of continuous UV/blue light illumination. Standard destructive tests were performed to measure fruit firmness, skin and flesh color, soluble solids and acid content from the apples. Calibration models for each of the three illumination time periods were developed to predict fruit quality indexes. The results showed that fluorescence emission decreased steadily during the first three minutes of UV/blue light illumination and was stable within five minutes. The differences were minimal in the model prediction results based on fluorescence data at one, three or five minutes of illumination. Overall, better predictions were obtained for apple skin chroma and hue and flesh hue with values for the correlation coefficient of validation between 0.80 and 0.90 for both GD and RD. Relatively poor predictions were obtained for fruit firmness, soluble solids content, titrational acid, and flesh chroma. This research has demonstrated that fluorescence spectroscopy is potentially useful for assessing selected quality attributes of apple fruit and further research is needed to improve fluorescence measurements so that better predictions of fruit quality can be achieved.

A Study on the Settlement Prediction of Soft Ground Embankment Using Artificial Neural Network (인공신경망을 이용한 연약지반성토의 침하예측 연구)

  • Kim, Dong-Sik;Chae, Young-Su;Kim, Young-Su;Kim, Hyun-Dong
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.23 no.7
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    • pp.17-25
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    • 2007
  • Various geotechnical problems due to insufficient bearing capacity or excessive settlement are likely to occur when constructing roads or large complexes on soft ground. Accurate predictions of the magnitude of settlement and the consolidation time provide numerous options of ground improvement methods and, thus, enable to save time and expense of the whole project. Asaoka's method is probably the most frequently used one for settlement prediction and the empirical formulae such as Hyperbolic method and Hoshino's method are also often used. To find an elaborate method of predicting the embankment settlement, two recurrent type neural network models, such as Jordan model and Elman-Jordan model, are adopted. The data sets of settlement measured at several domestic sites are analyzed to obtain the most suitable model structures. It was shown from the comparison between predicted and measured settlements that Jordan model provides better predictions than Elman-Jordan model does and that the predictions using CPT results are more accurate than those using SPT results. It is believed that RNN using cone penetration test results can be a highly efficient tool in predicting settlements if enough field data can be obtained.

A Study on Determining the Prediction Models for Predicting Stock Price Movement (주가 운동양태 예측을 위한 예측 모델결정에 관한 연구)

  • Jeon Jin-Ho;Cho Young-Hee;Lee Gye-Sung
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.6 no.6
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    • pp.26-32
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    • 2006
  • Predictions on stock prices have been a hot issue in stock market as people get more interested in stock investments. Assuming that the stock price is moving by a trend in a specific pattern, we believe that a model can be derived from past data to describe the change of the price. The best model can help predict the future stock price. In this paper, our model derivation is based on automata over temporal data to which the model is explicable. We use Bayesian Information Criterion(BIC) to determine the best number of states of the model. We confirm the validity of Bayesian Information Criterion and apply it to building models over stock price indices. The model derived for predicting daily stock price are compared with real price. The comparisons show the predictions have been found to be successful over the data sets we chose.

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Prediction of Surface Ocean $pCO_2$ from Observations of Salinity, Temperature and Nitrate: the Empirical Model Perspective

  • Lee, Hyun-Woo;Lee, Ki-Tack;Lee, Bang-Yong
    • Ocean Science Journal
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    • v.43 no.4
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    • pp.195-208
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    • 2008
  • This paper evaluates whether a thermodynamic ocean-carbon model can be used to predict the monthly mean global fields of the surface-water partial pressure of $CO_2$ ($pCO_{2SEA}$) from sea surface salinity (SSS), temperature (SST), and/or nitrate ($NO_3$) concentration using previously published regional total inorganic carbon ($C_T$) and total alkalinity ($A_T$) algorithms. The obtained $pCO_{2SEA}$ values and their amplitudes of seasonal variability are in good agreement with multi-year observations undertaken at the sites of the Bermuda Atlantic Timeseries Study (BATS) ($31^{\circ}50'N$, $60^{\circ}10'W$) and the Hawaiian Ocean Time-series (HOT) ($22^{\circ}45'N$, $158^{\circ}00'W$). By contrast, the empirical models predicted $C_T$ less accurately at the Kyodo western North Pacific Ocean Time-series (KNOT) site ($44^{\circ}N$, $155^{\circ}E$) than at the BATS and HOT sites, resulting in greater uncertainties in $pCO_{2SEA}$ predictions. Our analysis indicates that the previously published empirical $C_T$ and $A_T$ models provide reasonable predictions of seasonal variations in surface-water $pCO_{2SEA}$ within the (sub) tropical oceans based on changes in SSS and SST; however, in high-latitude oceans where ocean biology affects $C_T$ to a significant degree, improved $C_T$ algorithms are required to capture the full biological effect on $C_T$ with greater accuracy and in turn improve the accuracy of predictions of $pCO_{2SEA}$.