• Title/Summary/Keyword: model input uncertainty

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Evaluation of Estimation and Variability of Fines Content in Pohang for CPT-based Liquefaction Assessment (CPT 기반 액상화 평가를 위한 포항지역 세립분 함량 예측 및 변동성 평가)

  • Bong, Tae-Ho;Kim, Sung-Ryul;Yoo, Byeong-Soo
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.35 no.3
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    • pp.37-46
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    • 2019
  • Recently, the use of CPT-based liquefaction assessment method has increased by providing more accurate results than other field tests. In CPT-based liquefaction evaluation, various soil properties are predicted and they are used for liquefaction potential assessment. In particular, fines content is one of the important input parameters in CPT-based liquefaction assessment, so it is very important to use correct prediction model and to make quantitative evaluation of estimating variability of fines content. In this study, the error evaluation of existing models for prediction of fines content through CPT was performed, and the most suitable model was selected for Pohang area, where the liquefaction phenomenon was observed in the 2017. In addition, the inherent variability of soil was analyzed, and the estimating variability of fines content was evaluated quantitatively considering the inherent variability of soil, measurement error of CPT and transformation uncertainty of selected model.

Moment-rotational analysis of soil during mining induced ground movements by hybrid machine learning assisted quantification models of ELM-SVM

  • Dai, Bibo;Xu, Zhijun;Zeng, Jie;Zandi, Yousef;Rahimi, Abouzar;Pourkhorshidi, Sara;Khadimallah, Mohamed Amine;Zhao, Xingdong;El-Arab, Islam Ezz
    • Steel and Composite Structures
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    • v.41 no.6
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    • pp.831-850
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    • 2021
  • Surface subsidence caused by mining subsidence has an impact on neighboring structures and utilities. In other words, subsurface voids created by mining or tunneling activities induce soil movement, exposing buildings to physical and/or functional destruction. Soil-structure is evaluated employing probability distribution laws to account for their uncertainty and complexity to estimate structural vulnerability. In this study, to investigate the displacement field and surface settlement profile caused by mining subsidence, on the basis of a Winklersoil model, analytical equations for the moment-rotation response ofsoil during mining induced ground movements are developed. To define the full static moment-rotation response, an equation for the uplift-yield state is constructed and integrated with equations for the uplift- and yield-only conditions. The constructed model's findings reveal that the inverse of the factor of safety (x) has a considerable influence on the moment-rotation curve. The maximal moment-rotation response of the footing is defined by X = 0:6. Despite the use of Winkler model, the computed moment-rotation response results derived from the literature were analyzed through the ELM-SVM hybrid of Extreme Learning Machine (ELM) and Support Vector Machine (SVM). Also, Monte Carlo simulations are used to apply continuous random parameters to assess the transmission of ground motions to structures. Following the findings of RMSE and R2, the results show that the choice of probabilistic laws of input parameters has a substantial impact on the outcome of analysis performed.

The prediction of deformation according to tunnel excavation in weathered granite (화강 풍화암지반의 터널굴착에 따른 변형예측)

  • Cha, Bong-Geun;Kim, Young-Su;Kwo, Tae-Soon;Kim, Sung-Ho
    • Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
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    • v.12 no.4
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    • pp.329-340
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    • 2010
  • Mechanical behavior of underground cavity construction such as tunnel is very difficult to estimate due to complexity and uncertainty of ground. Prediction of behavior according to excavation of tunnel mainly uses method utilized of model test or numerical analysis. But scale model test is difficult to reappear field condition, numerical analysis is also very hard to seek choice of suitable constituent model and input data. To solve this problem, this paper forecasted the deformation of tunnel that applied to information of crown settlement and convergence, RMR in weathered granite by using the regression analysis. The result of the analysis shows that the crown settlement according to excavation occurs approximately 70~80% of total displacements within about 20 days. As a result of the prediction of crown settlement and convergence, an exponential function becomes more accurate at measurements than an algebraic function. Also this paper got a correlation in comparison of RMR and displacements of 6 sections.

The Sensitivity Analyses of Initial Condition and Data Assimilation for a Fog Event using the Mesoscale Meteorological Model (중규모 기상 모델을 이용한 안개 사례의 초기장 및 자료동화 민감도 분석)

  • Kang, Misun;Lim, Yun-Kyu;Cho, Changbum;Kim, Kyu Rang;Park, Jun Sang;Kim, Baek-Jo
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.36 no.6
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    • pp.567-579
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    • 2015
  • The accurate simulation of micro-scale weather phenomena such as fog using the mesoscale meteorological models is a very complex task. Especially, the uncertainty arisen from initial input data of the numerical models has a decisive effect on the accuracy of numerical models. The data assimilation is required to reduce the uncertainty of initial input data. In this study, the limitation of the mesoscale meteorological model was verified by WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) model for a summer fog event around the Nakdong river in Korea. The sensitivity analyses of simulation accuracy from the numerical model were conducted using two different initial and boundary conditions: KLAPS (Korea Local Analysis and Prediction System) and LDAPS (Local Data Assimilation and Prediction System) data. In addition, the improvement of numerical model performance by FDDA (Four-Dimensional Data Assimilation) using the observational data from AWS (Automatic Weather System) was investigated. The result of sensitivity analysis showed that the accuracy of simulated air temperature, dew point temperature, and relative humidity with LDAPS data was higher than those of KLAPS, but the accuracy of the wind speed of LDAPS was lower than that of KLAPS. Significant difference was found in case of relative humidity where RMSE (Root Mean Square Error) for LDAPS and KLAPS was 15.7 and 35.6%, respectively. The RMSE for air temperature, wind speed, and relative humidity was improved by approximately $0.3^{\circ}C$, $0.2m\;s^{-1}$, and 2.2%, respectively after incorporating the FDDA.

Statistical Calibration and Validation of Mathematical Model to Predict Motion of Paper Helicopter (종이 헬리콥터 낙하해석모델의 통계적 교정 및 검증)

  • Kim, Gil Young;Yoo, Sung Bum;Kim, Dong Young;Kim, Dong Seong;Choi, Joo Ho
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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    • v.39 no.8
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    • pp.751-758
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    • 2015
  • Mathematical models are actively used to reduce the experimental expenses required to understand physical phenomena. However, they are different from real phenomena because of assumptions or uncertain parameters. In this study, we present a calibration and validation method using a paper helicopter and statistical methods to quantify the uncertainty. The data from the experiment using three nominally identical paper helicopters consist of different groups, and are used to calibrate the drag coefficient, which is an unknown input parameter in both analytical models. We predict the predicted fall time data using probability distributions. We validate the analysis models by comparing the predicted distribution and the experimental data distribution. Moreover, we quantify the uncertainty using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo method. In addition, we compare the manufacturing error and experimental error obtained from the fall-time data using Analysis of Variance. As a result, all of the paper helicopters are treated as one identical model.

Simulation of TOA Visible Radiance for the Ocean Target and its Possible use for Satellite Sensor Calibration (해양 표적을 이용한 대기 상단 가시영역에서의 복사휘도 모의와 위성 센서 검보정에의 활용 가능성 연구)

  • Kim, Jung-Gun;Sohn, Byung-Ju;Chung, Eui-Seok;Chun, Hyoung-Wook;Suh, Ae-Sook;Kim, Kum-Lan;Oh, Mi-Lim
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.24 no.6
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    • pp.535-549
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    • 2008
  • Vicarious calibration for the satellite sensor relies on simulated TOA (Top-of-Atmosphere) radiances over various targets. In this study, TOA visible radiance was calculated over ocean targets which are located in five different regions over the Indian and Pacific ocean, and its possible use for the satellite sensor calibration was examined. TOA radiances are simulated with the 6S radiative transfer model for the comparison with MODIS/Terra and SeaWiFS measurements. Geometric angles and sensor characteristics of the reference satellites were taken into account for the simulation. AOT (Aerosol Optical Thickness) from MODIS/Terra, pigment concentrations from Sea WiFS, and ozone amount from OMI measurements were used as inputs to the model. Other atmospheric input parameters such as surface wind and total column water vapor were taken from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. The 5-day averaged radiances over all targets show that the percent differences between simulated and observed radiances are within about ${\pm}5%$ in year 2005, indicating that the calculated radiances are in good agreement with satellite measurements. It has also been shown that the algorithm can produce the SeaWiFS radiances within about ${\pm}5%$ uncertainty range. It has been suggested that the algorithm can be used as a tool for calibrating the VIS bands within about 5% uncertainty range.

Design of Robust Fuzzy Controllers via Inverse Optimal Approach (역최적화 방법을 이용한 강인한 퍼지 제어기의 설계)

  • 곽기호;임재환;박주영
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
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    • v.11 no.6
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    • pp.477-486
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    • 2001
  • In this paper , we study the problem of designing TS(Takagi-Sugeno) fuzzy controllers for the systems that can be approximated or represented by the TS fuzzy model. The main strategy used in this paper is the inverse optimal approach, in which the cost function is determined later than the Lyapunov function and its corresponding control input satisfying the design requirements such as stability, decay rate, and robustness against uncertainty. This approach is useful because it yields controllers satisfying the inherent robustness of optimal controllers as well as the considered design goals. The design procedures established in this paper are all in the from of solving LMIs(Iinear matrix inequalities). Since the LMIs arising in the design procedures can be solved within a given tolerance by the interior point methods. the design method of the paper are efficient in practice. The applicability of the proposed design procedures is demonstrated by design examples.

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Common Rail Pressure Control Algorithm for Passenger Car Diesel Engines Using Quantitative Feedback Theory (QFT를 이용한 디젤엔진의 커먼레일 압력 제어알고리즘 설계 연구)

  • Shin, Jaewook;Hong, Seungwoo;Park, Inseok;Sunwoo, Myoungho
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers B
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    • v.38 no.2
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    • pp.107-114
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    • 2014
  • This paper proposes a common rail pressure control algorithm for passenger car diesel engines. For handling the parameter-varying characteristics of common rail systems, the quantitative feedback theory (QFT) is applied to the design of a robust rail pressure control algorithm. The driving current of the pressure control valve and the common rail pressure are used as the input/output variables for the common rail system model. The model parameter uncertainty ranges are identified through experiments. Rail pressure controller requirements in terms of tracking performance, robust stability, and disturbance rejection are defined on a Nichols chart, and these requirements are fulfilled by designing a compensator and a prefilter in the QFT framework. The proposed common rail pressure control algorithm is validated through engine experiments. The experimental results show that the proposed rail pressure controller has a good degree of consistency under various operating conditions, and it successfully satisfies the requirements for reference tracking and disturbance rejection.

Regional Innovation System in France (프랑스의 지역혁신체계 발전과정과 혁신기업 창업체계)

  • Moon, Nam-Cheol
    • Journal of the Korean association of regional geographers
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    • v.15 no.5
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    • pp.525-536
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    • 2009
  • In the period of rapid economic growth, it is possible to practice the growth policy by factors input and the regional development policy by the dispersion of growth. But, in the period of weakened growth, this model loses its theoretical and practical merit. The endogenous regional development model that can efficiently cope with a international competition and a uncertainty of international economy become an alternative policy of growth and regional development. France, which had a problem of overcrowding in the capital region by the centralized growth policy and regional development policy, phase the regional innovation system policy in order to establish the foundation of an endogenous regional development from the 1970's. The regional innovation system policy in France which pursues simultaneously the systematic regional knowledge creation and the regional development is very suggestive to the regional innovation system policy in Korea that pursues the endogenous regional development and the solution of the regional disparity.

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Examining a Vicarious Calibration Method for the TOA Radiance Initialization of KOMPSAT OSMI

  • Sohn, Byung-Ju;Yoo, Sin-Jae;Kim, Yong-Seung;Kim, Do-hyeong
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.305-313
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    • 2000
  • A vicarious calibration method was developed for the OSMI sensor calibration. Employing measured aerosol optical thickness by a sunphotometer and a sky radiometer and water leaving radiance by ship measurements as inputs, TOA (top of the atmosphere) radiance at each OSMI band was simulated in conjunction with a radiative transfer model (Rstar5b) by Nakajima and Tanaka (1988). As a case of examining the accuracy of this method, we simulated TOA radiance based on water leaving radiance measured at NASA/MOBY site and aerosol optical thickness estimated nearby at Lanai, and compared simulated results with SeaWiFS-estimated TOA radiances. The difference falls within about $\pm$5%, suggesting that OMSI sensor can be calibrated with the suggested accuracy. In order to apply this method for the OSMI sensor calibration, ground-based sun photometry and ship measurements were carried out off the east coast of Korean peninsula on May 31, 2000. Simulations of TOA radiance by using these measured data as input to the radiative transfer model show that there are substantial differences between simulated and OSMI-estimated radiances. Such a discrepancy appears to be mainly due to the cloud contamination because satellite image indicates optically thin clouds over the experimental area. Nevertheless results suggest that sensor calibration can be achieved within 5% uncertainty range if there are ground-based measurements of aerosol optical thickness, and water leaving radiances under clear-sky and optically thin atmospheric conditions.