• Title/Summary/Keyword: median prediction

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Prediction and analysis of acute fish toxicity of pesticides to the rainbow trout using 2D-QSAR (2D-QSAR방법을 이용한 농약류의 무지개 송어 급성 어독성 분석 및 예측)

  • Song, In-Sik;Cha, Ji-Young;Lee, Sung-Kwang
    • Analytical Science and Technology
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    • v.24 no.6
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    • pp.544-555
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    • 2011
  • The acute toxicity in the rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) was analyzed and predicted using quantitative structure-activity relationships (QSAR). The aquatic toxicity, 96h $LC_{50}$ (median lethal concentration) of 275 organic pesticides, was obtained from EU-funded project DEMETRA. Prediction models were derived from 558 2D molecular descriptors, calculated in PreADMET. The linear (multiple linear regression) and nonlinear (support vector machine and artificial neural network) learning methods were optimized by taking into account the statistical parameters between the experimental and predicted p$LC_{50}$. After preprocessing, population based forward selection were used to select the best subsets of descriptors in the learning methods including 5-fold cross-validation procedure. The support vector machine model was used as the best model ($R^2_{CV}$=0.677, RMSECV=0.887, MSECV=0.674) and also correctly classified 87% for the training set according to EU regulation criteria. The MLR model could describe the structural characteristics of toxic chemicals and interaction with lipid membrane of fish. All the developed models were validated by 5 fold cross-validation and Y-scrambling test.

Prognostic Prediction Based on Dynamic Contrast-Enhanced MRI and Dynamic Susceptibility Contrast-Enhanced MRI Parameters from Non-Enhancing, T2-High-Signal-Intensity Lesions in Patients with Glioblastoma

  • Sang Won Jo;Seung Hong Choi;Eun Jung Lee;Roh-Eul Yoo;Koung Mi Kang;Tae Jin Yun;Ji-Hoon Kim;Chul-Ho Sohn
    • Korean Journal of Radiology
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    • v.22 no.8
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    • pp.1369-1378
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    • 2021
  • Objective: Few attempts have been made to investigate the prognostic value of dynamic contrast-enhanced (DCE) MRI or dynamic susceptibility contrast (DSC) MRI of non-enhancing, T2-high-signal-intensity (T2-HSI) lesions of glioblastoma multiforme (GBM) in newly diagnosed patients. This study aimed to investigate the prognostic values of DCE MRI and DSC MRI parameters from non-enhancing, T2-HSI lesions of GBM. Materials and Methods: A total of 76 patients with GBM who underwent preoperative DCE MRI and DSC MRI and standard treatment were retrospectively included. Six months after surgery, the patients were categorized into early progression (n = 15) and non-early progression (n = 61) groups. We extracted and analyzed the permeability and perfusion parameters of both modalities for the non-enhancing, T2-HSI lesions of the tumors. The optimal percentiles of the respective parameters obtained from cumulative histograms were determined using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and univariable Cox regression analyses. The results were compared using multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression analysis of progression-free survival. Results: The 95th percentile value (PV) of Ktrans, mean Ktrans, and median Ve were significant predictors of early progression as identified by the ROC curve analysis (area under the ROC curve [AUC] = 0.704, p = 0.005; AUC = 0.684, p = 0.021; and AUC = 0.670, p = 0.0325, respectively). Univariable Cox regression analysis of the above three parametric values showed that the 95th PV of Ktrans and the mean Ktrans were significant predictors of early progression (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.06, p = 0.009; HR = 1.25, p = 0.017, respectively). Multivariable Cox regression analysis, which also incorporated clinical parameters, revealed that the 95th PV of Ktrans was the sole significant independent predictor of early progression (HR = 1.062, p < 0.009). Conclusion: The 95th PV of Ktrans from the non-enhancing, T2-HSI lesions of GBM is a potential prognostic marker for disease progression.

Quality of Radiomics Research on Brain Metastasis: A Roadmap to Promote Clinical Translation

  • Chae Jung Park;Yae Won Park;Sung Soo Ahn;Dain Kim;Eui Hyun Kim;Seok-Gu Kang;Jong Hee Chang;Se Hoon Kim;Seung-Koo Lee
    • Korean Journal of Radiology
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.77-88
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    • 2022
  • Objective: Our study aimed to evaluate the quality of radiomics studies on brain metastases based on the radiomics quality score (RQS), Transparent Reporting of a multivariable prediction model for Individual Prognosis Or Diagnosis (TRIPOD) checklist, and the Image Biomarker Standardization Initiative (IBSI) guidelines. Materials and Methods: PubMed MEDLINE, and EMBASE were searched for articles on radiomics for evaluating brain metastases, published until February 2021. Of the 572 articles, 29 relevant original research articles were included and evaluated according to the RQS, TRIPOD checklist, and IBSI guidelines. Results: External validation was performed in only three studies (10.3%). The median RQS was 3.0 (range, -6 to 12), with a low basic adherence rate of 50.0%. The adherence rate was low in comparison to the "gold standard" (10.3%), stating the potential clinical utility (10.3%), performing the cut-off analysis (3.4%), reporting calibration statistics (6.9%), and providing open science and data (3.4%). None of the studies involved test-retest or phantom studies, prospective studies, or cost-effectiveness analyses. The overall rate of adherence to the TRIPOD checklist was 60.3% and low for reporting title (3.4%), blind assessment of outcome (0%), description of the handling of missing data (0%), and presentation of the full prediction model (0%). The majority of studies lacked pre-processing steps, with bias-field correction, isovoxel resampling, skull stripping, and gray-level discretization performed in only six (20.7%), nine (31.0%), four (3.8%), and four (13.8%) studies, respectively. Conclusion: The overall scientific and reporting quality of radiomics studies on brain metastases published during the study period was insufficient. Radiomics studies should adhere to the RQS, TRIPOD, and IBSI guidelines to facilitate the translation of radiomics into the clinical field.

Preoperative Prediction of Ductal Carcinoma in situ Underestimation of the Breast using Dynamic Contrast Enhanced and Diffusion-weighted Imaging (역동적 유방 자기공명 영상 및 확산 강조영상을 이용한 관상피내암종 저평가 수술전 예측)

  • Park, Mina;Kim, Eun-Kyung;Kim, Min Jung;Moon, Hee Jung
    • Investigative Magnetic Resonance Imaging
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.101-109
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    • 2013
  • Objective: To investigate roles of dynamic contrast enhanced magnetic resonance (DCE MR) and diffusion-weighted (DW) imaging in preoperative prediction of underestimation of ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) ${\geq}2cm$ on US guided core needle biopsy. Materials and Methods: Twenty two patients with DCIS on US-guided 14 gauge core needle biopsy were included. Patients were divided into a group with and without DCIS underestimation based on histopathology. MR images including DCE and DW imaging were obtained with a 3.0-T MR. The lesion type (mass or non-mass), enhancement pattern, peak enhancement, and apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) values of proven malignant masses were generated using software of CADstream and compared between two groups using Fisher's exact test and Mann Whitney test. Results: Eight patients were in the group with underestimation and 14 patients were in the group without underestimation. The lesion type and enhancement pattern were not different between two groups (P values = 1.000 and 0.613, respectively). The median peak enhancement of lesions with underestimation was 159.5%, higher than 133.5% of those without underestimation, but not significant (P value = 0.413). The median ADC value of lesions with underestimation was $1.26{\times}10^{-3}mm^2/sec$, substantially lower than $1.35{\times}10^{-3}mm^2/sec$ of those without underestimation (P value = 0.094). Conclusion: ADC values had the potential to preoperatively predict DCIS underestimation on US-guided core needle biopsy, although a large prospective series study should be conducted to confirm these results.

Prognostic Usefulness of Maximum Standardized Uptake Value on FDG-PET in Surgically Resected Non-small-cell Lung Cancer (수술로 제거된 비소세포폐암의 예후 예측에 있어 FDG-PET 최대 표준화 섭취계수의 유용성)

  • Nguyen Xuan Canh;Lee Won-Woo;Sung Sook-Whan;Jheon Sang-Hoon;Kim Yu-Kyeong;Lee Dong-Soo;Chung June-Key;Lee Myung-Chul;Kim Sang-Eun
    • Nuclear Medicine and Molecular Imaging
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    • v.40 no.4
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    • pp.205-210
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    • 2006
  • Purpose: FDG uptake on positron omission tomography (PET) has been considered a prognostic indicator in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). The aim of this study was to assess the clinical significance of maximum value of SUV (maxSUV) in recurrence prediction in patients with surgically resected NSCLC. Materials & methods: NSCLC patients (n=42, F:M =14:28, age $62.3{\pm}12.3$ y) who underwent curative resection after FDG-PET were enrolled. Twenty-nine patients had pathologic stage 1, and 13 had pathologic stage II. Thirty-one patients were additionally treated with adjuvant oral chemotherapy. MaxSUVs of primary tumors were analyzed for correlation with tumor recurrence and compared with pathologic or clinical prognostic indicators. The median follow-up duration was 16 mo (range, 3-26 mo). Results: Ten (23.8%) of the 42 patients experienced recurrence during a median follow-up of 7.5 mo (range, 3-13 mo). Univariate analysis revealed that disease-free survival (DFS) was significantly correlated with maxSUV (<7 vs. $\geq7$, p=0.006), tumor size (<3 cm vs. $\geq3$ cm, p=0.024), and tumor tell differentiation (well/moderate vs. poor, p=0.044). However, multivariate Cox proportional analysis identified maxSUV as the single determinant for DFS (p=0.014). Patients with a maxSUV of $\geq7$(n=10) had a significantly lower 1-year DFS rate (50.0%) than those with a maxSUV of <7 (n=32, 87.5%). Conclusion: MaxSUV is a significant independent predictor for recurrence in surgically resected NSCLC. FDG uptake can be added to other well-known factors in prognosis prediction of NSCLC.

Performance Prediction for an Adaptive Optics System Using Two Analysis Methods: Statistical Analysis and Computational Simulation (통계분석 및 전산모사 기법을 이용한 적응광학 시스템 성능 예측)

  • Han, Seok Gi;Joo, Ji Yong;Lee, Jun Ho;Park, Sang Yeong;Kim, Young Soo;Jung, Yong Suk;Jung, Do Hwan;Huh, Joon;Lee, Kihun
    • Korean Journal of Optics and Photonics
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    • v.33 no.4
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    • pp.167-176
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    • 2022
  • Adaptive optics (AO) systems compensate for atmospheric disturbance, especially phase distortion, by introducing counter-wavefront deformation calculated from real-time wavefront sensing or prediction. Because AO system implementations are time-consuming and costly, it is highly desirable to estimate the system's performance during the development of the AO system or its parts. Among several techniques, we mostly apply statistical analysis, computational simulation, and optical-bench tests. Statistical analysis estimates performance based on the sum of performance variances due to all design parameters, but ignores any correlation between them. Computational simulation models every part of an adaptive optics system, including atmospheric disturbance and a closed loop between wavefront sensor and deformable mirror, as close as possible to reality, but there are still some differences between simulation models and reality. The optical-bench test implements an almost identical AO system on an optical bench, to confirm the predictions of the previous methods. We are currently developing an AO system for a 1.6-m ground telescope using a deformable mirror that was recently developed in South Korea. This paper reports the results of the statistical analysis and computer simulation for the system's design and confirmation. For the analysis, we apply the Strehl ratio as the performance criterion, and the median seeing conditions at the Bohyun observatory in Korea. The statistical analysis predicts a Strehl ratio of 0.31. The simulation method similarly reports a slightly larger value of 0.32. During the study, the simulation method exhibits run-to-run variation due to the random nature of atmospheric disturbance, which converges when the simulation time is longer than 0.9 seconds, i.e., approximately 240 times the critical time constant of the applied atmospheric disturbance.

Prediction of Life Expectancy for Terminally Ill Cancer Patients Based on Clinical Parameters (말기 암 환자에서 임상변수를 이용한 생존 기간 예측)

  • Yeom, Chang-Hwan;Choi, Youn-Seon;Hong, Young-Seon;Park, Yong-Gyu;Lee, Hye-Ree
    • Journal of Hospice and Palliative Care
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    • v.5 no.2
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    • pp.111-124
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    • 2002
  • Purpose : Although the average life expectancy has increased due to advances in medicine, mortality due to cancer is on an increasing trend. Consequently, the number of terminally ill cancer patients is also on the rise. Predicting the survival period is an important issue in the treatment of terminally ill cancer patients since the choice of treatment would vary significantly by the patents, their families, and physicians according to the expected survival. Therefore, we investigated the prognostic factors for increased mortality risk in terminally ill cancer patients to help treat these patients by predicting the survival period. Methods : We investigated 31 clinical parameters in 157 terminally ill cancer patients admitted to in the Department of Family Medicine, National Health Insurance Corporation Ilsan Hospital between July 1, 2000 and August 31, 2001. We confirmed the patients' survival as of October 31, 2001 based on medical records and personal data. The survival rates and median survival times were estimated by the Kaplan-Meier method and Log-rank test was used to compare the differences between the survival rates according to each clinical parameter. Cox's proportional hazard model was used to determine the most predictive subset from the prognostic factors among many clinical parameters which affect the risk of death. We predicted the mean, median, the first quartile value and third quartile value of the expected lifetimes by Weibull proportional hazard regression model. Results : Out of 157 patients, 79 were male (50.3%). The mean age was $65.1{\pm}13.0$ years in males and was $64.3{\pm}13.7$ years in females. The most prevalent cancer was gastric cancer (36 patients, 22.9%), followed by lung cancer (27, 17.2%), and cervical cancer (20, 12.7%). The survival time decreased with to the following factors; mental change, anorexia, hypotension, poor performance status, leukocytosis, neutrophilia, elevated serum creatinine level, hypoalbuminemia, hyperbilirubinemia, elevated SGPT, prolonged prothrombin time (PT), prolonged activated partial thromboplastin time (aPTT), hyponatremia, and hyperkalemia. Among these factors, poor performance status, neutrophilia, prolonged PT and aPTT were significant prognostic factors of death risk in these patients according to the results of Cox's proportional hazard model. We predicted that the median life expectancy was 3.0 days when all of the above 4 factors were present, $5.7{\sim}8.2$ days when 3 of these 4 factors were present, $11.4{\sim}20.0$ days when 2 of the 4 were present, and $27.9{\sim}40.0$ when 1 of the 4 was present, and 77 days when none of these 4 factors were present. Conclusions : In terminally ill cancer patients, we found that the prognostic factors related to reduced survival time were poor performance status, neutrophilia, prolonged PT and prolonged am. The four prognostic factors enabled the prediction of life expectancy in terminally ill cancer patients.

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Prediction of Late Rectal Complication Following High-dose-rate Intracavitary Brachytherapy in Cancer of the Uterine Cervix (자궁경부암 환자의 고선량률 강내치료 시행 시 직장합병증의 예측)

  • Lee, Jeung-Eun;Huh, Seung-Jae;Park, Won;Lim, Do-Hoon;Ahn, Yong-Chan
    • Radiation Oncology Journal
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.276-282
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    • 2003
  • Purpose: Although high-dose-rate intracavitary radiotherapy (HDR ICR) has been used in the treatment of cervical cancer, the potential for increased risk of late complication, most commonly in the rectum, is a major concern. We have previously reported on 136 patients treated with HDR brachytherapy between 1995 and 1999. The purpose of this study is to upgrade the previous data and confirm the correlation between late rectal complication and rectal dose in cervix cancer patients treated with HDR ICR. Materials and Methods: A retrospective analysis was peformed for 222 patients with cevix cancer who were treated for curative intent with external beam radiotherapy (EBRT) and HDR ICR from July 1995 to December 2001. The median dose of EBRT was 50.4 (30.6$\~$56.4) Gy with a daily fraction size 1.8 Gy. A total of six fractions of HDR ICR were given twice weekly with fraction size of 4 (3$\~$5.5) Gy to A point by Iridium-192 source. The rectal dose was calculated at the rectal reference point using the barium contrast criteria. in vivo measurement of the rectal dose was peformed with thermoluminescent dosimeter (TLD) during HDR ICR. The median follow-up period was 39 months, ranging from 6 to 90 months. Results: Twenty-one patients (9.5$\%$) experienced late rectal bleeding, from 3 to 44 months (median, 13 months) after the completion of RT. The calculated rectal doses were not different between the patients with rectal bleeding and those without, but the measured rectal doses were higher in the complicated patients. The differences of the measured ICR rectal fractional dose, ICR total rectal dose, and total rectal biologically equivalent dose (BED) were statistically significant. When the measured ICR total rectal dose was beyond 16 Gy, when the ratio of the measured rectal dose to A point dose was beyond 70$\%$, or when the measured rectal BED was over 110 Gy$_{3}$, a high possibility of late rectal complication was found. Conclusion: Late rectal complication was closely correlated with measured rectal dose by in vivo dosimetry using TLD during HDR ICR. If data from in vivo dosimetry shows any possibility of rectal bleeding, efforts should be made to reduce the rectal dose.

Postoperative External Beam Radiotherapy for Retroperitoneal Soft Tissue Sarcoma (후복막 연조직 육종의 수술 후 외부 방사선 치료)

  • Jang, Na-Young;Kim, Il-Han;Choi, Jin-Hwa;Park, Charn-Il
    • Radiation Oncology Journal
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.135-141
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    • 2008
  • Purpose: To evaluate the clinical outcomes and prognostic factors in retroperitoneal soft tissue sarcomas treated by postoperative radiotherapy. Materials and Methods: The records of 23 patients with retroperitoneal soft tissue sarcomas, who underwent postoperative radiotherapy between 1985 and 2003, were analyzed. The median follow-up period was 77 months (range, $8{\sim}240$ months). A total of 21 patients presented with primary disease, and two patients presented with recurrent disease. Liposarcomas and leiomyosarcomas represented 78% of the diagnosed tumor cases. Moreover, 17 cases were of high grade (grade 2 or 3). The median tumor size was 13 cm (range, $3{\sim}50\;cm$). Complete excision was achieved in 65% of patients. The median radiation dose was 50.4 Gy (range, 45.0 to 59.4 Gy), with conventional fractionation. Results: The 5-year overall, local recurrence-free, and distant metastasis-free survival rates were 68%, 58%, and 71%, respectively. Eleven patients experienced local recurrence, while 9 patients experienced distant metastasis. The most common site for distant metastasis was the liver. A univariate analysis revealed that adjacent organ invasion and age (>60 years) as the significant risk factors contributing to the prediction of poor overall survival. Moreover, multivariate analyses indicated that adjacent organ invasion remained significantly associated with a higher risk of death. In addition, patient age (>60 years) was the other identified risk factor for local recurrence by univariate and multivariate analyses. Except for one case of grade 3 diarrhea, no patient suffered grade 3 or higher complications. Conclusion: Our results were comparable to previous reports in that adjacent organ invasion and patient age (>60 years) were significant predictors of poor survival and tumor recurrence, respectively.

Prediction of Intubation after Bronchoscopy with Non-invasive Positive Pressure Ventilation Support in Patients with Acute Hypoxemic Respiratory Failure (급성 저산소혈증 환자에서 비침습적 양압환기 적용 하 기관지경 검사 후 기관 삽관의 예측 인자)

  • Song, Jae-Uk;Kim, Su-A;Choi, E Ryoung;Kim, Soo Min;Choi, Hee Jung;Lim, So Yeon;Park, So Young;Suh, Gee Young;Jeon, Kyeongman
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.67 no.1
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    • pp.21-26
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    • 2009
  • Background: Non-invasive positive pressure ventilation (NPPV) ensures adequate gas exchange during bronchoscopy in spontaneously breathing, hypoxemic patients, thus avoiding endotracheal intubation. However, in some patients, endotracheal intubation is eventually required after bronchoscopy. This study investigated the incidence of intubation and predictors of a need for emergency intubation prior to NPPV bronchoscopy initiation. Methods: On a retrospective basis, we reviewed the medical records of 36 patients (median age, 55 years; interquartile range [IQR], 43~65 years) with acute hypoxemic respiratory failure who required NPPV during bronchoscopy between January 2005 and October 2007. Results: All patients were hypoxemic (median $PaO_2/FiO_2$ ratio 155; IQR 90~190), but tolerated bronchoscopy with NPPV support. SOFA score and SAPS II score immediately before NPPV initiation were 4 (3~7) and 36 (30~42), respectively. Seventeen (47%) patients needed endotracheal intubation at a median time of 22 (2~50) hours after bronchoscopy. Patients who needed intubation after bronchoscopy had a higher in-hospital mortality (11 [65%] vs. 4 [21%], p=0.017). Upon multiple logistic regression analysis, the need for intubation after bronchoscopy was independently associated with a $P_aO_2/FiO_2$ ratio (OR, 0.961; 95% CI, 0.924~0.999; p=0.047) immediately before NPPV initiation for bronchoscopy. Conclusion: The severity of the hypoxemia immediately prior to NPPV initiation for bronchoscopy was associated with the need for intubation after bronchoscopy in patients with hypoxemic respiratory failure.