• Journal of the Korean earth science society
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• v.39 no.3
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• pp.211-227
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• 2018

This study evaluates the prediction skills of stratospheric polar vortex intensification events (VIEs) in Global Seasonal Forecasting System (GloSea5) model, an operational subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) prediction model of Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA). The results show that the prediction limits of VIEs, diagnosed with anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) and mean squared skill score (MSSS), are 13.6 days and 18.5 days, respectively. These prediction limits are mainly determined by the eddy error, especially the large-scale eddy phase error from the eddies with the zonal wavenumber 1. This might imply that better prediction skills for VIEs can be obtained by improving the model performance in simulating the phase of planetary scale eddy. The stratospheric prediction skills, on the other hand, tend to not affect the tropospheric prediction skills in the analyzed cases. This result may indicate that stratosphere-troposphere dynamic coupling associated with VIEs might not be well predicted by GloSea5 model. However, it is possible that the coupling process, even if well predicted by the model, cannot be recognized by monotonic analyses, because intrinsic modes in the troposphere often have larger variability compared to the stratospheric impact.

• Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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• v.36 no.1
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• pp.57-76
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• 2007

Kriging is a nonparametric regression method used in geostatistics for estimating curves and surfaces for spatial data. It may come as a surprise that the Kriging estimator, normally derived as the best linear unbiased estimator, is also the solution of a particular variational problem. Thus, Kriging estimators can also be interpreted as generalized smoothing splines where the roughness penalty is determined by the covariance function of a spatial process. We build off the early work by Silverman (1982, 1984) and the analysis by Cox (1983, 1984), Messer (1991), Messer and Goldstein (1993) and others and develop an equivalent kernel interpretation of geostatistical estimators. Given this connection we show how a given covariance function influences the bias and variance of the Kriging estimate as well as the mean squared prediction error. Some specific asymptotic results are given in one dimension for Matern covariances that have as their limit cubic smoothing splines.

• The Journal of the Institute of Internet, Broadcasting and Communication
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• v.19 no.4
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• pp.161-167
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• 2019

Recently, demand forecasting techniques have been actively studied due to interest in stable power supply with surging power demand, and increase in spread of smart meters that enable real-time power measurement. In this study, we proceeded the deep learning prediction model experiments which learns actual measured power usage data of home and outputs the forecasting result. And we proceeded pre-processing with moving average method. The predicted value made by the model is evaluated with the actual measured data. Through this forecasting, it is possible to lower the power supply reserve ratio and reduce the waste of the unused power. In this paper, we conducted experiments on three types of networks: Multi Layer Perceptron (MLP), Recurrent Neural Network (RNN), and Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) and we evaluate the results of each scheme. Evaluation is conducted with following method: MSE(Mean Squared Error) method and MAE(Mean Absolute Error).

• Tunnel and Underground Space
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• v.31 no.6
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• pp.508-519
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• 2021

In this study, a model was developed to predict the peak particle velocity (PPV) that affects people and the surrounding environment during blasting. Four machine learning models using the k-nearest neighbors (kNN), classification and regression tree (CART), support vector regression (SVR), and particle swarm optimization (PSO)-SVR algorithms were developed and compared with each other to predict the PPV. Mt. Yogmang located in Changwon-si, Gyeongsangnam-do was selected as a study area, and 1048 blasting data were acquired to train the machine learning models. The blasting data consisted of hole length, burden, spacing, maximum charge per delay, powder factor, number of holes, ratio of emulsion, monitoring distance and PPV. To evaluate the performance of the trained models, the mean absolute error (MAE), mean square error (MSE), and root mean square error (RMSE) were used. The PSO-SVR model showed superior performance with MAE, MSE and RMSE of 0.0348, 0.0021 and 0.0458, respectively. Finally, a method was proposed to predict the degree of influence on the surrounding environment using the developed machine learning models.

• Journal of Ocean Engineering and Technology
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• v.37 no.4
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• pp.145-157
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• 2023

Due to a recent increase in maritime activities in South Korea, the frequency of maritime distress is escalating and poses a significant threat to lives and property. The aim of this study was to validate a drift trajectory prediction technique to help mitigate the damages caused by maritime distress incidents. In this study, OpenDrift was verified using satellite drifter data from the Korea Hydrographic and Oceanographic Agency. OpenDrift is a Monte-Carlo-based Lagrangian trajectory modeling framework that allows for considering leeway, an important factor in predicting the movement of floating marine objects. The simulation results showed no significant differences in the performance of drift trajectory prediction when considering leeway using four evaluation methods (normalized cumulative Lagrangian separation, root mean squared error, mean absolute error, and Euclidean distance). However, leeway improved the performance in an analysis of location prediction conformance for maritime search and rescue operations. Therefore, the findings of this study suggest that it is important to consider leeway in drift trajectory prediction for effective maritime search and rescue operations. The results could help with future research on drift trajectory prediction of various floating objects, including marine debris, satellite drifters, and sea ice.

• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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• v.46 no.1
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• pp.23-31
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• 2023

Research and interest in sustainable printing are increasing in the packaging printing industry. Currently, predicting the amount of ink required for each work is based on the experience and intuition of field workers. Suppose the amount of ink produced is more than necessary. In this case, the rest of the ink cannot be reused and is discarded, adversely affecting the company's productivity and environment. Nowadays, machine learning models can be used to figure out this problem. This study compares the ink usage prediction machine learning models. A simple linear regression model, Multiple Regression Analysis, cannot reflect the nonlinear relationship between the variables required for packaging printing, so there is a limit to accurately predicting the amount of ink needed. This study has established various prediction models which are based on CART (Classification and Regression Tree), such as Decision Tree, Random Forest, Gradient Boosting Machine, and XGBoost. The accuracy of the models is determined by the K-fold cross-validation. Error metrics such as root mean squared error, mean absolute error, and R-squared are employed to evaluate estimation models' correctness. Among these models, XGBoost model has the highest prediction accuracy and can reduce 2134 (g) of wasted ink for each work. Thus, this study motivates machine learning's potential to help advance productivity and protect the environment.

• Journal of Broadcast Engineering
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• v.21 no.2
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• pp.157-168
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• 2016

In image processing and computer vision fields, mean squared error (MSE) has popularly been used as an objective metric in image quality optimization problems due to its desirable mathematical properties such as metricability, differentiability and convexity. However, as known that MSE is not highly correlated with perceived visual quality, much effort has been made to develop new image quality assessment (IQA) metrics having both the desirable mathematical properties aforementioned and high prediction performances for subjective visual quality scores. Although recent IQA metrics having the desirable mathematical properties have shown to give some promising results in prediction performance for visual quality scores, they also have high computation complexities. In order to alleviate this problem, we propose a new fast IQA metric using a simple Laplace operator. Since the Laplace operator used in our IQA metric can not only effectively mimic operations of receptive fields in retina for luminance stimulus but also be simply computed, our IQA metric can yield both very fast processing speed and high prediction performance. In order to verify the effectiveness of the proposed IQA metric, our method is compared to some state-of-the-art IQA metrics. The experimental results showed that the proposed IQA metric has the fastest running speed compared the IQA methods except MSE under comparison. Moreover, our IQA metric achieves the best prediction performance for subjective image quality scores among the state-of-the-art IQA metrics under test.

• Proceedings of the Korea Information Processing Society Conference
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• 2019.10a
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• pp.585-588
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• 2019

Predictions of Energy Consumption for Industries gain an important place in energy management and control system, as there are dynamic and seasonal changes in the demand and supply of energy. This paper presents and discusses the predictive models for energy consumption of the steel industry. Data used includes lagging and leading current reactive power, lagging and leading current power factor, carbon dioxide (tCO2) emission and load type. In the test set, four statistical models are trained and evaluated: (a) Linear regression (LR), (b) Support Vector Machine with radial kernel (SVM RBF), (c) Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM), (d) random forest (RF). Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) are used to measure the prediction efficiency of regression designs. When using all the predictors, the best model RF can provide RMSE value 7.33 in the test set.

• Journal of Information Processing Systems
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• v.12 no.3
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• pp.436-454
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• 2016

This research presents the battery discharge rate models for the energy consumption of mobile phone batteries based on machine learning by taking into account three usage patterns of the phone: the standby state, video playing, and web browsing. We present the experimental design methodology for collecting data, preprocessing, model construction, and parameter selections. The data is collected based on the HTC One X hardware platform. We considered various setting factors, such as Bluetooth, brightness, 3G, GPS, Wi-Fi, and Sync. The battery levels for each possible state vector were measured, and then we constructed the battery prediction model using different regression functions based on the collected data. The accuracy of the constructed models using the multi-layer perceptron (MLP) and the support vector machine (SVM) were compared using varying kernel functions. Various parameters for MLP and SVM were considered. The measurement of prediction efficiency was done by the mean absolute error (MAE) and the root mean squared error (RMSE). The experiments showed that the MLP with linear regression performs well overall, while the SVM with the polynomial kernel function based on the linear regression gives a low MAE and RMSE. As a result, we were able to demonstrate how to apply the derived model to predict the remaining battery charge.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.55 no.11
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• pp.903-911
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• 2022

Groundwater, one of the resources for supplying water, fluctuates in water level due to various natural factors. Recently, research has been conducted to predict fluctuations in groundwater levels using Artificial Neural Network (ANN). Previously, among operators in ANN, Gradient Descent (GD)-based Optimizers were used as Optimizer that affect learning. GD-based Optimizers have disadvantages of initial correlation dependence and absence of solution comparison and storage structure. This study developed Gradient Descent combined with Harmony Search (GDHS), a new Optimizer that combined GD and Harmony Search (HS) to improve the shortcomings of GD-based Optimizers. To evaluate the performance of GDHS, groundwater level at Icheon Yullhyeon observation station were learned and predicted using Multi Layer Perceptron (MLP). Mean Squared Error (MSE) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE) were used to compare the performance of MLP using GD and GDHS. Comparing the learning results, GDHS had lower maximum, minimum, average and Standard Deviation (SD) of MSE than GD. Comparing the prediction results, GDHS was evaluated to have a lower error in all of the evaluation index than GD.