• Title/Summary/Keyword: mean absolute error

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Predictive models of hardened mechanical properties of waste LCD glass concrete

  • Wang, Chien-Chih;Wang, Her-Yung;Huang, Chi
    • Computers and Concrete
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    • v.14 no.5
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    • pp.577-597
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    • 2014
  • This paper aims to develop a prediction model for the hardened properties of waste LCD glass that is used in concrete by analyzing a series of laboratory test results, which were obtained in our previous study. We also summarized the testing results of the hardened properties of a variety of waste LCD glass concretes and discussed the effect of factors such as the water-binder ratio (w/b), waste glass content (G) and age (t) on the concrete compressive strength, flexural strength and ultrasonic pulse velocity. This study also applied a hyperbolic function, an exponential function and a power function in a non-linear regression analysis of multiple variables and established the prediction model that could consider the effect of the water-binder ratio (w/b), waste glass content (G) and age (t) on the concrete compressive strength, flexural strength and ultrasonic pulse velocity. Compared with the testing results, the statistical analysis shows that the coefficient of determination $R^2$ and the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) were 0.93-0.96 and 5.4-8.4% for the compressive strength, 0.83-0.89 and 8.9-12.2% for the flexural strength and 0.87-0.89 and 1.8-2.2% for the ultrasonic pulse velocity, respectively. The proposed models are highly accurate in predicting the compressive strength, flexural strength and ultrasonic pulse velocity of waste LCD glass concrete. However, with other ranges of mixture parameters, the predicted models must be further studied.

Modeling of Winter Time Apartment Heating Load in District Heating System Using Reduced LS-SVM (Reduced LS-SVM을 이용한 지역난방 동절기 공동주택 난방부하의 모델링)

  • Park, Young Chil
    • Korean Journal of Air-Conditioning and Refrigeration Engineering
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    • v.27 no.6
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    • pp.283-292
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    • 2015
  • A model of apartment heating load in a district heating system could be useful in the management and utilization of energy resources, since it could predict energy usage and so could assist in the efficient use of energy resources. The heating load in a district heating system varies in a highly nonlinear manner and is subject to many different factors, such as heating area, number of people living in that complex, and ambient temperature. Thus there are few published papers with accurate models of heating load, especially in domestic literature. This work is concerned with the modeling of apartment heating load in a district heating system in winter, using the reduced least square support vector machine (LS-SVM), and with the purpose of using the model to predict heating energy usage in domestic city area. We collected 23,856 pieces of data on heating energy usage over a 12-week period in winter, from 12 heat exchangers in five apartments. Half of the collected data were used to construct the heating load model, and the other half were used to test the model's accuracy. The model was able to predict the heating energy usage pattern rather accurately. It could also estimate the usage of heating energy within of mean absolute percentage error. This implies that the model prediction accuracy needs to be improved further, but it still could be considered as an acceptable model if we consider the nonlinearity and uncertainty of apartment heating energy usage in a district heating system.

Estimating Annual Average Daily Traffic Using Hourly Traffic Pattern and Grouping in National Highway (일반국도 그룹핑과 시간 교통량 추이를 이용한 연평균 일교통량 추정)

  • Ha, Jung-Ah;Oh, Sei-Chang
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.11 no.2
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    • pp.10-20
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    • 2012
  • This study shows how to estimate AADT(Annual Average Daily Traffic) on temporary count data using new grouping method. This study deals with clustering permanent traffic counts using monthly adjustment factor, daily adjustment factor and a percentage of hourly volume. This study uses a percentage of hourly volume comparing with other studies. Cluster analysis is used and 5 groups is suitable. First, make average of monthly adjustment factor, average of daily adjustment factor, a percentage of hourly volume for each group. Next estimate AADT using 24 hour volume(not holiday) and two adjustment factors. Goodness of fit test is used to find what groups are applicable. MAPE(Mean Absolute Percentage Error) is 8.7% in this method. It is under 1.5% comparing with other method(using adjustment factors in same section). This method is better than other studies because it can apply all temporary counts data.

Prediction models of compressive strength and UPV of recycled material cement mortar

  • Wang, Chien-Chih;Wang, Her-Yung;Chang, Shu-Chuan
    • Computers and Concrete
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.419-427
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    • 2017
  • With the rising global environmental awareness on energy saving and carbon reduction, as well as the environmental transition and natural disasters resulted from the greenhouse effect, waste resources should be efficiently used to save environmental space and achieve environmental protection principle of "sustainable development and recycling". This study used recycled cement mortar and adopted the volumetric method for experimental design, which replaced cement (0%, 10%, 20%, 30%) with recycled materials (fly ash, slag, glass powder) to test compressive strength and ultrasonic pulse velocity (UPV). The hyperbolic function for nonlinear multivariate regression analysis was used to build prediction models, in order to study the effect of different recycled material addition levels (the function of $R_m$(F, S, G) was used and be a representative of the content of recycled materials, such as fly ash, slag and glass) on the compressive strength and UPV of cement mortar. The calculated results are in accordance with laboratory-measured data, which are the mortar compressive strength and UPV of various mix proportions. From the comparison between the prediction analysis values and test results, the coefficient of determination $R^2$ and MAPE (mean absolute percentage error) value of compressive strength are 0.970-0.988 and 5.57-8.84%, respectively. Furthermore, the $R^2$ and MAPE values for UPV are 0.960-0.987 and 1.52-1.74%, respectively. All of the $R^2$ and MAPE values are closely to 1.0 and less than 10%, respectively. Thus, the prediction models established in this study have excellent predictive ability of compressive strength and UPV for recycled materials applied in cement mortar.

A Recommender System Model Combining Collaborative filtering and SOM Neural Networks (협동적 필터링과 SOM 신경망을 결합한 추천시스템 모델)

  • Lee, Mi-Hee;Woo, Young-Tae
    • Journal of Korea Multimedia Society
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    • v.11 no.9
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    • pp.1213-1226
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    • 2008
  • A recommender system supports people in making recommendations finding a set of people who are likely to provide good recommendations for a given person, or deriving recommendations from implicit behavior such as browsing activity, buying patterns, and time on task. We proposed new recommender system which combined SOM(Self-Organizing Map) neural networks with the Collaborative filtering which most recommender systems hat applied First, we segmented user groups according to demographic characteristics and then we trained the SOM with people's preferences as ito inputs. Finally we applied the classic collaborative filtering to the clustering with similarity in which an recommendation seeker belonged to, and therefore we didn't have to apply the collaborative filtering to the whose data set. Experiments were run for EachMovies data set. The results indicated that the predictive accuracy was increased in terms of MAE(Mean-Absolute-Error).

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Design and Implementation of personalized recommendation system using Case-based Reasoning Technique (사례기반추론 기법을 이용한 개인화된 추천시스템 설계 및 구현)

  • Kim, Young-Ji;Mun, Hyeon-Jeong;Ok, Soo-Ho;Woo, Yong-Tae
    • The KIPS Transactions:PartD
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    • v.9D no.6
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    • pp.1009-1016
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    • 2002
  • We design and implement a new case-based recommender system using implicit rating information for a digital content site. Our system consists of the User Profile Generation module, the Similarity Evaluation and Recommendation module, and the Personalized Mailing module. In the User Profile Generation Module, we define intra-attribute and inter-attribute weight deriver from own's past interests of a user stored in the access logs to extract individual preferences for a content. A new similarity function is presented in the Similarity Evaluation and Recommendation Module to estimate similarities between new items set and the user profile. The Personalized Mailing Module sends individual recommended mails that are transformed into platform-independent XML document format to users. To verify the efficiency of our system, we have performed experimental comparisons between the proposed model and the collaborative filtering technique by mean absolute error (MAE) and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) values. The results show that the proposed model is more efficient than the traditional collaborative filtering technique.

Forecasting Daily Demand of Domestic City Gas with Selective Sampling (선별적 샘플링을 이용한 국내 도시가스 일별 수요예측 절차 개발)

  • Lee, Geun-Cheol;Han, Jung-Hee
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.16 no.10
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    • pp.6860-6868
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    • 2015
  • In this study, we consider a problem of forecasting daily city gas demand of Korea. Forecasting daily gas demand is a daily routine for gas provider, and gas demand needs to be forecasted accurately in order to guarantee secure gas supply. In this study, we analyze the time series of city gas demand in several ways. Data analysis shows that primary factors affecting the city gas demand include the demand of previous day, temperature, day of week, and so on. Incorporating these factors, we developed a multiple linear regression model. Also, we devised a sampling procedure that selectively collects the past data considering the characteristics of the city gas demand. Test results on real data exhibit that the MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) obtained by the proposed method is about 2.22%, which amounts to 7% of the relative improvement ratio when compared with the existing method in the literature.

Improvement on Similarity Calculation in Collaborative Filtering Recommendation using Demographic Information (인구 통계 정보를 이용한 협업 여과 추천의 유사도 개선 기법)

  • 이용준;이세훈;왕창종
    • Journal of KIISE:Computing Practices and Letters
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    • v.9 no.5
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    • pp.521-529
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    • 2003
  • In this paper we present an improved method by using demographic information for overcoming the similarity miss-calculation from the sparsity problem in collaborative filtering recommendation systems. The similarity between a pair of users is only determined by the ratings given to co-rated items, so items that have not been rated by both users are ignored. To solve this problem, we add virtual neighbor's rating using demographic information of neighbors for improving prediction accuracy. It is one kind of extentions of traditional collaborative filtering methods using the peason correlation coefficient. We used the Grouplens movie rating data in experiment and we have compared the proposed method with the collaborative filtering methods by the mean absolute error and receive operating characteristic values. The results show that the proposed method is more efficient than the collaborative filtering methods using the pearson correlation coefficient about 9% in MAE and 13% in sensitivity of ROC.

DSM Generation and Accuracy Analysis from UAV Images on River-side Facilities (UAV 영상을 활용한 수변구조물의 DSM 생성 및 정확도 분석)

  • Rhee, Sooahm;Kim, Taejung;Kim, Jaein;Kim, Min Chul;Chang, Hwi Jeong
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.31 no.2
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    • pp.183-191
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    • 2015
  • If the damage analysis on river-side facilities such as dam, river bank structures and bridges caused by disasters such as typhoon, flood, etc. becomes available, it can be a great help for disaster recovery and decision-making. In this research, We tried to extract a Digital Surface Model (DSM) and analyze the accuracy from Unmanned Air Vehicle (UAV) images on river-side facilities. We tried to apply stereo image-based matching technique, then extracted match results were united with one mosaic DSM. The accuracy was verified compared with a DSM derived from LIDAR data. Overall accuracy was around 3m of absolute and root mean square error. As an analysis result, we confirmed that exterior orientation parameters exerted an influence to DSM accuracy. For more accurate DSM generation, accurate EO parameters are necessary and effective interpolation and post process technique needs to be developed. And the damage analysis simulation with DSM has to be performed in the future.

A study on electricity demand forecasting based on time series clustering in smart grid (스마트 그리드에서의 시계열 군집분석을 통한 전력수요 예측 연구)

  • Sohn, Hueng-Goo;Jung, Sang-Wook;Kim, Sahm
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.29 no.1
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    • pp.193-203
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    • 2016
  • This paper forecasts electricity demand as a critical element of a demand management system in Smart Grid environment. We present a prediction method of using a combination of predictive values by time series clustering. Periodogram-based normalized clustering, predictive analysis clustering and dynamic time warping (DTW) clustering are proposed for time series clustering methods. Double Seasonal Holt-Winters (DSHW), Trigonometric, Box-Cox transform, ARMA errors, Trend and Seasonal components (TBATS), Fractional ARIMA (FARIMA) are used for demand forecasting based on clustering. Results show that the time series clustering method provides a better performances than the method using total amount of electricity demand in terms of the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE).