• Title/Summary/Keyword: maximum-likelihood

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The Measurement and Comparison of the Relative Efficiency for Currency Futures Markets : Advanced Currency versus Emerging Currency (통화선물시장의 상대적 효율성 측정과 비교 : 선진통화 대 신흥통화)

  • Kim, Tae-Hyuk;Eom, Cheol-Jun;Kang, Seok-Kyu
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.1-22
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    • 2008
  • This study is to evaluate, to the extent to, which advanced currency futures and emerging currency futures markets can predict accurately the future spot rate. To this end, Johansen's the maximum-likelihood cointegration method(1988, 1991) is adopted to test the unbiasedness and efficiency hypothesis. Also, this study is to estimate and compare a quantitative measure of relative efficiency as a ratio of the forecast error variance from the best-fitting quasi-error correction model to the forecast error variance of the futures price as predictor of the spot price in advanced currency futures with in emerging currency futures market. Advanced currency futures is British pound and Japan yen. Emerging currency futures includes Korea won, Mexico peso, and Brazil real. The empirical results are summarized as follows : First, the unbiasedness hypothesis is not rejected for Korea won and Japan yen futures exchange rates. This indicates that the emerging currency Korea won and the advanced currency Japan yen futures exchange rates are likely to predict accurately realized spot exchange rate at a maturity date without the trader having to pay a risk premium for the privilege of trading the contract. Second, in emerging currency futures markets, the unbiasedness hypothesis is not rejected for Korea won futures market apart from Mexico peso and Brazil real futures markets. This indicates that in emerging currency futures markets, Korea won futures market is more efficient than Mexico peso and Brazil real futures markets and is likely to predict accurately realized spot exchange rate at a maturity date without risk premium. Third, this findings show that the results of unbiasedness hypothesis tests can provide conflicting finding. according to currency futures class and forecasts horizon period, Fourth, from the best-fitting quasi-error correction model with forecast horizons of 14 days, the findings suggest the Japan yen futures market is 27.06% efficient, the British pound futures market is 26.87% efficient, the Korea won futures market is 20.77% efficient, the Mexico peso futures market is 11.55%, and the Brazil real futures market is 4.45% efficient in the usual order. This indicates that the Korea won-dollar futures market is more efficient than Mexico peso, and Brazil real futures market. It is therefore possible to concludes that the Korea won-dollar currency futures market has relatively high efficiency comparing with Mexico peso and Brazil real futures markets of emerging currency futures markets.

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Estimation of Genetic Parameters for Economic Traits in Yorkshire (요크셔종에 대한 경제형질의 유전모수 추정)

  • Song, K.L.;Kim, B.W.;Kim, S.D.;Choi, C.S.;Kim, M.J.;Lee, J.G.
    • Journal of Animal Science and Technology
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    • v.44 no.5
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    • pp.499-506
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    • 2002
  • This study was conducted to estimate the heritabilities and genetic and phenotypic correlations among average daily gain, age at 90kg and backfat thickness in Yorkshire pigs. The data were obtained from 2,111 heads of Yorkshire tested at National Livestock Research Institute from May, 1994 to April, 2000. Genetic parameters were estimated with a multiple trait animal model by using DF-REML (Deri- vative-Free REstricted Maximum Likelihood). The results obtained are summarized as follows ; The means of traits studied were 0.871${\pm}$0.124 kg for average daily gain, 145.397${\pm}$11.718 days for age at 90kg and 1.476${\pm}$0.241 cm for backfat thickness. The estimated heritabilities were 0.55 for average daily gain, 0.56 for age at 90kg and 0.55 for backfat thickness. The genetic correlation of average daily gain with age at 90kg and backfat thickness were -0.82, 0.10, respectively. The genetic correlation of age at 90kg with backfat thickness was -0.25. The phenotypic correlations of average daily gain(ADG) with age at 90kg and backfat thickness and age at 90kg with backfat thickness were -0.77, 0.02 and -0.05 respectively. Though phenotypic correlation of ADG and age at 90kg was low, breeding project should be carefully considered by high genetic correlation. High heritabilities on all economic traits were obtained. Therefore, it is considered that suitable selection and management is needed successful improvement.

Estimation of Genetic Parameters for Ultrasound and Carcass Traits in Hanwoo (한우의 초음파 측정 형질과 도체 형질의 유전모수 추정)

  • Kim, Hyeong-Cheol;Lee, Seung-Hwan;Dang, Chang-Gwon;Jeon, Gi-Jun;Yeon, Seong-Heum;Cho, Young-Moo;Lee, Sang-Min;Yang, Boh-Suk;Kim, Jong-Bok
    • Journal of Animal Science and Technology
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    • v.54 no.5
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    • pp.331-336
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    • 2012
  • This study was conducted to estimate genetic parameters for ultrasound and carcass traits in Hanwoo. Heritabilities and genetic and phenotypic correlations were estimated for carcass and ultrasound measurements collected from Hanwoo cows (n=312) born at Hanwoo experiment station. Traits evaluated were eye muscle area (EMA), backfat thickness (BF), marbling score (MS) from carcass, and ultrasound eye muscle area (UEMA), ultrasound backfat (UBF), and ultrasound marbling score (UMS). Parameters were estimated using multi-trait animal models byderivative-free restricted maximum likelihood procedures. Estimated heritabilities for UBF, UEMA and UMS were 0.43, 0.23 and 0.32, while heritabilities for BF, EMA and MS were 0.33, 0.13 and 0.33 in fattened cows, respectively. Genetic correlations between ultrasound and carcass measurements were estimated to -0.19, -0.61, and -0.36 for UBF: UEMA, UBF: UMS, and UEMA: UMS in fattened cows, respectively. Phenotypic correlations between ultrasound and carcass measurements were 0.03, 0.13 and 0.26 for UBF: UEMA, UBF: UMS, and UEMA: UMS in fattened cows, respectively. As for the steer, genetic correlations between ultrasound and carcass measurements were 0.36, -0.80 and 0.27 for UBF: UEMA, UBF: UMS, and UEMA: UMS in steers, respectively. Phenotypic correlations between ultrasound and carcass measurements were 0.13, 0.07 and 0.41 for UBF: UEMA, UBF: UMS, and UEMA: UMS in steers, respectively. In conclusion, this finding would be very useful to implement into Hanwoo breeding program.

A Control Method for designing Object Interactions in 3D Game (3차원 게임에서 객체들의 상호 작용을 디자인하기 위한 제어 기법)

  • 김기현;김상욱
    • Journal of KIISE:Computing Practices and Letters
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    • v.9 no.3
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    • pp.322-331
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    • 2003
  • As the complexity of a 3D game is increased by various factors of the game scenario, it has a problem for controlling the interrelation of the game objects. Therefore, a game system has a necessity of the coordination of the responses of the game objects. Also, it is necessary to control the behaviors of animations of the game objects in terms of the game scenario. To produce realistic game simulations, a system has to include a structure for designing the interactions among the game objects. This paper presents a method that designs the dynamic control mechanism for the interaction of the game objects in the game scenario. For the method, we suggest a game agent system as a framework that is based on intelligent agents who can make decisions using specific rules. Game agent systems are used in order to manage environment data, to simulate the game objects, to control interactions among game objects, and to support visual authoring interface that ran define a various interrelations of the game objects. These techniques can process the autonomy level of the game objects and the associated collision avoidance method, etc. Also, it is possible to make the coherent decision-making ability of the game objects about a change of the scene. In this paper, the rule-based behavior control was designed to guide the simulation of the game objects. The rules are pre-defined by the user using visual interface for designing their interaction. The Agent State Decision Network, which is composed of the visual elements, is able to pass the information and infers the current state of the game objects. All of such methods can monitor and check a variation of motion state between game objects in real time. Finally, we present a validation of the control method together with a simple case-study example. In this paper, we design and implement the supervised classification systems for high resolution satellite images. The systems support various interfaces and statistical data of training samples so that we can select the most effective training data. In addition, the efficient extension of new classification algorithms and satellite image formats are applied easily through the modularized systems. The classifiers are considered the characteristics of spectral bands from the selected training data. They provide various supervised classification algorithms which include Parallelepiped, Minimum distance, Mahalanobis distance, Maximum likelihood and Fuzzy theory. We used IKONOS images for the input and verified the systems for the classification of high resolution satellite images.

Patient Satisfaction and Perception on Nutritional Counseling Services Quality (영양 상담서비스 품질에 대한 환자의 만족도와 인식조사)

  • Choi, Ki Bo;Lee, Song Mi;Lee, Seung Min;Lee, Eun;Park, Mi Sun;Park, Yoo Kyoung;Cha, Jin A;Lyu, Eun Soon
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Food Science and Nutrition
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    • v.46 no.2
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    • pp.251-258
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    • 2017
  • The objective of this study was to analyze patient satisfaction and perception of nutritional counseling services quality. A patient satisfaction and perception survey was conducted for 1,095 patients from 43 tertiary hospitals and 20 general hospitals. The number of returned questionnaires was 656 (response rate: 60.0%). Data from 633 questionnaires were analyzed after the questionnaires with unanswered items were excluded. Five domains were identified from the result of the factor analysis using the maximum likelihood and oblique rotation. The five domains were named empathy, responsiveness, tangibles, reliability, and skill and specialty. Patient perception mean score of nutritional counseling was 4.54/5.00. Patient satisfaction scores were significantly higher in empathy (P<0.001), responsiveness, and skill and specialty (P<0.01) with a college or graduate school education than in patients with a middle school education. There was no statistically significant difference between satisfaction scores in tertiary hospitals and those in general hospitals, but patients in capital hospitals reported significantly higher scores than their local counterparts in empathy, responsiveness, reliability, skill and specialty (P<0.001), and tangibles (P<0.05). In responsiveness, significantly higher (P<0.01) scores were observed in patients who received nutritional counseling only once compared to patients who received counseling two times. Patients perception of nutritional counseling services was significantly correlated with their satisfaction of five domains, reliability (r=0.721), responsiveness (r=0.697), empathy (r=0.690), skill and specialty (r=0.678), and tangibles (r=0.622).

The Relationship Between Son Preference and Fertility (남아 선호와 출산력간의 관계)

  • 이성용
    • Korea journal of population studies
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.31-57
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    • 2003
  • This study is intended to examine (l)whether the value of son-for example, old age security and succession of family lineage- causing son preference in the traditional society can be explained at the individual level, (2)whether women without son in the son preference country continue her childbearing until having at least one son or give up the desire of having a son at a certain level. To accomplish these purposes, the 1974 Korean National Fertility Survey data are analyzed by the quadratic hazard models controlling unobserved heterogeneity. Unlike ordinary regression model, even omitted variables that affect hazard rates and are uncorrelated with the included independent variables can distort the parameter estimates in the hazard model. Therefore the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator(NPMLE) of a mixing distribution developed by Heckman and Singer is used to control unobserved heterogeneity. Based on the statistical result in this study, the value of son causing son preference is determined at the societal level, not at the individual level. And Korean women without a son did not continue endlessly childbearing during child bearing ages until having a son. In general, they gave up the desire having a son when she had born six daughters continuously. Thus, 30-40 years ago, the number of daughters that women without a son giving up the desire of son was six, which is about the level of total fertility rate during 1960s. In these days, we can often see many women who have only two or three daughters and do not any son. This means that the level of giving up the desire of son, which is one factor representing the strength of son preference, becomes lower. If the strength of son preference did not become much weaker, then the fertility rates in Korea could not reach the below replacement level.

Factorial Validity of the Korean Version of the Illness Intrusive Rating Scale among Psychiatric Outpatients Mainly Diagnosed with Anxiety or Depressive Disorders (불안 및 우울장애를 주요 진단으로 하는 정신건강의학과 외래환자 대상 한국판 질병침습도 평가척도의 요인 타당도 연구)

  • Cho, Yubin;Kim, Daeho;Kim, Eunkyung;Jo, Hwa Yeon;Yun, Mirim;Lee, Hoseon
    • Korean Journal of Psychosomatic Medicine
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.77-84
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    • 2019
  • Objectives : The Illness Intrusiveness Rating Scale (IIRS) is a well-validated self-report instrument for assessing negative impact of chronic illness and/or adverse effects of its treatment on everyday life domains. Although extensive literature probed its psychometric properties in medical illness, little attention was paid for its validity for psychiatric population. This study aimed to test factorial structure of the Korean Version of the IIRS (IIRS-K) in a consecutive sample of psychiatric outpatients. Methods : Data set of 307 first-visit patients of psychiatric clinic at Guri Hanyang univ. Hospital were used. Exploratory and confirmatory factor analysis, internal consistency were tested in IIRS-K. We also checked Spearman's correlation analysis between IIRS-K, Zung's self-report anxiety scale and Zung's self-report depression scale. Results : 76.9% of the patients were with anxiety disorder and depressive disorder. The principal component factor analysis of the IIRS-K extracted three-factor structure accounted for 63.2% of total variance that was contextually similar to the original English version. This three-factor solution showed the best fit when tested confirmatory factor analysis compared to the original IIRS, two-factor model of IIRS-K suggested from medical outpatients, and one-factor solution. The IIRS-K also showed good internal consistency (Cronbach's α=0.90) and good convergent validity with anxiety and depression scales. Conclusions : The IIRS-K showed the three-factor structure that was similar but not identical to original version. Overall, this study proved factorial validity of the IIRS-K and it can be used for Korean clinical population.

Genetic Parameter Estimates for Reproductive and Productive Traits of Pig in a Herd (돼지의 번식형질과 산육형질에 대한 유전모수 추정)

  • Cho, Chung-Il;Ahn, Jin-Kuk;Lee, Joon-Ho;Lee, Deuk-Hwan
    • Journal of Animal Science and Technology
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    • v.54 no.1
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    • pp.9-14
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    • 2012
  • The purpose of this study was to estimate heritabilities and genetic correlations for reproductive and productive traits and to apply their estimates to selection strategies in a swine population. Reproductive and productive traits considered in this study were number of born alive piglet (NBA), number of weaned piglet (NW), loin eye area (LEA), days to 90 kg (D90KG), back fat thickness (BF), and lean meat content (LEAN). Data were collected from 9,886 litters on 2,447 sows for reproductive traits and 10,181 gilts and boars for productive traits from Jan. 2000 to Dec. 2008 in a swine GGP farm. The statistical model to estimate genetic parameters for considering traits was a multiple traits animal model with including animal and maternal additive effects and litter effects on reproductive traits and animal additive effects on productive traits as random as well as some of fixed effects. For estimating (co) variance components of several random effects, restricted maximum likelihood methodology was used on this assumed model. The estimated heritabilities by animal additive effects and maternal effects were 0.07 and 0.02 for NBA and 0.03 and 0.02 for NW, respectively. Genetic correlation estimate for direct genetic effects between NBA and NW was 0.14. Heritability estimates for direct genetic effects were 0.19, 0.39, 0.36, and 0.43 for LEA, D90KG, BF and LEAN, respectively. The genetic correlation of LEA with LEAN was 0.35. Productive traits were antagonistically correlated with reproductive traits. From these results it is concluded that, if selection is done for strong positive effects of reproductive traits, then this would decline productive performance.

Estimation of Environmental Effect and Genetic Parameters for The Carcass Traits in Hanwoo (Korean Cattle) (한우 도체형질의 환경효과 및 유전모수의 추정)

  • Moon, W.G.;Kim, B.W.;Roh, S.H.;Kim, H.S.;Jung, D.J.;Sun, D.W.;Kim, K.N.;Yoon, Y.T.;Jung, J.H.;Jeon, J.T.;Lee, J.G.
    • Journal of Animal Science and Technology
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    • v.49 no.6
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    • pp.689-698
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    • 2007
  • This study aims to estimate the genetic parameters for carcass traits on Hanwoo of breeding farmhouses using Animal Products Grading Service’s data of 428,812 cattle from 101 slaughterhouses nationwide from 2000 to 2005. Using carcass traits of carcass weight, eye muscle area, backfat thickness, marbling score, meat color and fat color that greatly influence Hanwoo's grade, the effects of carcass year, carcass season, sex and carcass region were estimated. Based upon carcass traits of carcass weight, eye muscle area, backfat thickness, marbling score and meat color that greatly influence Hanwoo’s grade, the heritabilities and genetic parameters were estimated of 17,578 Hanwoo slaughtered in 2005 with existing herdbook, where EM-REML algorithm was used in estimating genetic parameters. The mean and standard deviation of each carcass trait are 321.42±53.62kg, 76.25±10.43cm2, 9.96± 4.14mm, 3.75±2.00, 4.83±0.48 and 2.99±0.40, for carcass weight, eye muscle area, backfat thickness, marbling score, meat color and fat color, respectively. As a result of analysis on the effects of carcass year, the carcass weight, backfat thickness and meat color came out highest as 359.40±0.181, 9.82±0.017 and 4.90±0.002, respectively in 2004. As a result of analysis on the effects of carcass season, the carcass weight and eye muscle area came out highest as 345.88±0.144 and 79.57±0.033 respectively in spring, and the backfat thickness was highest as 8.78±0.013 in winter, and the meat color and fat color slightly came out higher as 4.88±0.002 and 2.96±0.001 in fall, while the marbling score was highest as 3.29±0.006 in summer. The results of the analysis on the effects of sex indicated that the backfat thickness and fat color were highest as 10.53±0.010 and 3.07±0.001 in cow, the carcass weight came out highest in Hanwoo steer as 368.03±0.068kg, the eye muscle area were highest as 82.96±0.042 in bull, and the marbling score was highest as 4.19±0.007 in steer, and the meat color was highest as 4.89±0.001 in cow. Regarding the results of analysis on the effects of carcass region, the carcass weight, eye muscle area,

Genetic Correlation of Carcass and Meat Production Traits with Hormones and Metabolic Components in Hawoo (가축의 혈청 호르몬 및 대사물질 농도와 도체 및 산육형질에 대한 유전상관에 관한 연구)

  • Jeon G. J.;Juong H. Y.;Cho K. H.;Kim M. J.;Kim I. C.;Kim J. B.
    • Journal of Embryo Transfer
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.255-269
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    • 2005
  • This study was aimed to investigate genetic relationships, variables, and correlations between economic traits and metabolic materials in serum components according to bleeding periods and breeding locations for the castrated and not castrated Hanwoo cattle at National Livestock Research Institute. Analysis of variance for serum hormones and metabolic materials showed significant differences by breeding locations except for testosterone and globulin. Statistical differences for serum components were detected by birth year except for cortisol, total protein, globulin and creatinine, and by castration except for total protein and BUN. All the serum components were tended to have sire effects except for testosterone resulting in some degree of additive gene actions. Breeding locations showed statistical significances for carcass weight and back fat thickness, but not in carcass rate, KPH, live weight and transportation weight loss. Effects of breeding locations and castration were significant for all weight measurement periods except for 9 month and 6 month, respectively. A significant sire effect was observed in all weight measurements. Least squared means for concentration of serum components by breeding year, season and castration were not significant. High concentration of cortisol, creatinine and triglyceride and low concentration of IGF-1 and glucose were detected in castrated cattle. Concentration of testosterone with castrated cattle was $5.2\%$ corresponding to non castrated cattle. Estimation of heritabilities of serum components using a sire model with restricted maximum likelihood were ranged 0.07 to 0.58. High heritabilities were estimated for total protein, albumin, globulin, cortisol, creatinine and BUN were 0.53, 0.54, 0.42, 0.45, 0.58 and 0.54, respectively. Low heritabilities were estimated fur calcium, testosterone and IGF-1 for 0.07, 0.15 and 0.12, respectively. Heritabilities for carcass weight, back fat thickness, meat yield index, KPH, and IMF were estimated as 0.39, 0.45, 0.30 0.13, and 0.93. Heritabilities of weights on 18, 12, 9, 6, and 24 month were estimated as 0.78, 0.76, 0.62, 0.58 and 0.58. Estimated heritabilities for average daily gain on 6${\~}$2, 12${\~}$18, and 18${\~}$24 month were 0.80, 0.75 and 0.19, respectively.