• Title/Summary/Keyword: maximum-likelihood

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Molecular Characterization of an Isolate of Bean Common Mosaic Virus First Identified in Gardenia Using Metatranscriptome and Small RNA Sequencing

  • Zhong-Tian Xu;Hai-Tao Weng;Jian-Ping Chen;Chuan-Xi Zhang;Jun-Min Li;Yi-Yuan Li
    • The Plant Pathology Journal
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    • v.40 no.1
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    • pp.73-82
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    • 2024
  • Gardenia (Gardenia jasminoides) is a popular and economically vital plant known for its ornamental and medicinal properties. Despite its widespread cultivation, there has been no documentation of plant viruses on gardenia yet. In the present study, gardenia leaves exhibiting symptoms of plant viral diseases were sampled and sequenced by both metatranscriptome and small RNA sequencing. As a consequence, bean common mosaic virus (BCMV) was identified in gardenia for the first time and named BCMV-gardenia. The full genome sequence of BCMV-gardenia is 10,054 nucleotides (nt) in length (excluding the poly (A) at the 3' termini), encoding a large polyprotein of 3,222 amino acids. Sequence analysis showed that the N-termini of the polyprotein encoded by BCMV-gardenia is less conserved when compared to other BCMV isolates, whereas the C-termini is the most conserved. Maximum likelihood phylogenetic analysis showed that BCMVgardenia was clustered closely with other BCMV isolates identified outside the leguminous plants. Our results indicated that the majority of BCMV-gardenia virus-derived small interfering RNAs (vsiRNAs) were 21 nt and 22 nt, with 21 nt being more abundant. The first nucleotide at the 5' termini of vsiRNAs derived from BCMV-gardenia preferred U and A. The ratio of vsiRNAs derived from sense (51.1%) and antisense (48.9%) strands is approaching, and the distribution of vsiRNAs along the viral genome is generally even, with some hot spots forming in local regions. Our findings could provide new insights into the diversity, evolution, and host expansion of BCMV and contribute to the prevention and treatment of this virus.

Cluster exploration of water pipe leak and complaints surveillance using a spatio-temporal statistical analysis (스캔통계량 분석을 통한 상수도 누수 및 수질 민원 발생 클러스터 탐색)

  • Juwon Lee;Eunju Kim;Sookhyun Nam;Tae-Mun Hwang
    • Journal of Korean Society of Water and Wastewater
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    • v.37 no.5
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    • pp.261-269
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    • 2023
  • In light of recent social concerns related to issues such as water supply pipe deterioration leading to problems like leaks and degraded water quality, the significance of maintenance efforts to enhance water source quality and ensure a stable water supply has grown substantially. In this study, scan statistic was applied to analyze water quality complaints and water leakage accidents from 2015 to 2021 to present a reasonable method to identify areas requiring improvement in water management. SaTScan, a spatio-temporal statistical analysis program, and ArcGIS were used for spatial information analysis, and clusters with high relative risk (RR) were determined using the maximum log-likelihood ratio, relative risk, and Monte Carlo hypothesis test for I city, the target area. Specifically, in the case of water quality complaints, the analysis results were compared by distinguishing cases occurring before and after the onset of "red water." The period between 2015 and 2019 revealed that preceding the occurrence of red water, the leak cluster at location L2 posed a significantly higher risk (RR: 2.45) than other regions. As for water quality complaints, cluster C2 exhibited a notably elevated RR (RR: 2.21) and appeared concentrated in areas D and S, respectively. On the other hand, post-red water incidents of water quality complaints were predominantly concentrated in area S. The analysis found that the locations of complaint clusters were similar to those of red water incidents. Of these, cluster C7 exhibited a substantial RR of 4.58, signifying more than a twofold increase compared to pre-incident levels. A kernel density map analysis was performed using GIS to identify priority areas for waterworks management based on the central location of clusters and complaint cluster RR data.

Fisheries Management of an Abalone Haliotis diversicolor in the Eastern Coastal Waters of Jeju Island using Yield-per-recruit Model (가입당생산량(yield-per-recruit) 모델을 이용한 제주 동부연안 오분자기류(Haliotis diversicolor)의 어업관리)

  • Ko, Joon-Chul;Yoo, Joon-Taek;Choi, Young-Min;Kim, Jae-Woo;Im, Yang-Jae
    • The Korean Journal of Malacology
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.143-151
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    • 2008
  • We studied the management policy for Haliotis diversicolor fisheries in the coastal area of Sungsanpo using Yield-per-recruit model from 2004 to 2006. The age at first capture($t_c$) and fishing mortality(F) annually estimated during the study period decreased and increased, respectively. The maximum yield-per-recruit in 2004 was increased by increasing $t_c$ from the 2.012 year of current $t_c$ to 2.7 year or increasing F from the 0.574/year of current F to 0.800/year, and that in 2005 was increased by increasing $t_c$ from the 1.946 year of current $t_c$ to 2.5 year or increasing F from the 0.578/year of current F to 0.880/year. In 2006, the maximum yield-per-recruit was increased by increasing $t_c$ from the 1.926year of current $t_c$ to 3.1 year or decreasing F from the 1.088/year of current F to 0.810/year. Further, although the current F in 2004 and 2005 was lower than the estimated $F_{MAX}$, that in 2006 was higher than the estimated $F_{MAX}$. These results indicate that the likelihood of growth overfishing with increasing catch of smaller H. diversicolor in 2006 was greater than in 2004 and 2005. As action that could prevent growth overfishing in fisheries management of H. diversicolor, increasing for the current $t_c$ could be a more appropriate policy because the artificial decrease of the number of woman divers related F is actually difficult.

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Variation of Indoor Air Temperature by using Hot Water Piping in Greenhouse (온수배관에 의한 온실 내부의 온도변화)

  • Yoon, Yong-Cheol;Shin, Yik-Soo;Bae, Seoung-Beom;Kim, Hyeon-Tae;Choi, Jin-Sik;Suh, Won-Myung
    • Journal of agriculture & life science
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    • v.46 no.2
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    • pp.179-190
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    • 2012
  • This study was performed to obtain a heat saving effect and enhance the efficiency of a greenhouse by using a hot water piping in order to minimize the operating costs of a greenhouse as oil prices continue to rise. This method also reduces the likelihood of accidents caused by snowdrifts in regions with heavy snowfall. In general, the experimental plot was $2.0{\sim}6.0^{\circ}C$ higher than the control plot. When the skylight felt was opened, the minimum temperature was in the range of $3.0{\sim}12.0^{\circ}C$. Therefore, we judged that damage caused by snowdrifts may be prevented partly by active heating. The temperature difference inside of the greenhouse by height was insignificant. The maximum heating load of the greenhouse according to crop was respectively about $37,000kcal{\cdot}h^{-1}$ and $41,700kcal{\cdot}h^{-1}$. During the experiment, the heat value of each designed temperature in the range of the minimum ambient temperature $-11.9{\sim}4.0^{\circ}C$ was about 95,000~322,000 kcal and it was in the range of $6,050{\sim}20,900kcal{\cdot}h^{-1}$. If it is compared with the maximum heating load, it can be shown that about 15~56% of the heating energy can be supplied. The total heat value and the amount of power consumption were 2,629,025 kcal and 677.3 kWh respectively during the experiment. If it is heated with diesel, a fossil fuel, the consumption during the experiment was 291 L and the cost was 331,700won. Total cost of using electric power was about 24,400 won and it is shown that it is about 7.5% of the cost of diesel consumption. Also, if the total amount of power consumption is converted into energy, it is approximately 582,200 kcal and the energy was just about 22% of the total heat value.

Self-Regulatory Mode Effects on Emotion and Customer's Response in Failed Services - Focusing on the moderate effect of attribution processing - (고객의 자기조절성향이 서비스 실패에 따른 부정적 감정과 고객반응에 미치는 영향 - 귀인과정에 따른 조정적 역할을 중심으로 -)

  • Sung, Hyung-Suk;Han, Sang-Lin
    • Asia Marketing Journal
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.83-110
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    • 2010
  • Dissatisfied customers may express their dissatisfaction behaviorally. These behavioral responses may impact the firms' profitability. How do we model the impact of self regulatory orientation on emotions and subsequent customer behaviors? Obviously, the positive and negative emotions experienced in these situations will influence the overall degree of satisfaction or dissatisfaction with the service(Zeelenberg and Pieters 1999). Most likely, these specific emotions will also partly determine the subsequent behavior in relation to the service and service provider, such as the likelihood of complaining, the degree to which customers will switch or repurchase, and the extent of word of mouth communication they will engage in(Zeelenberg and Pieters 2004). This study investigates the antecedents, consequences of negative consumption emotion and the moderate effect of attribution processing in an integrated model(self regulatory mode → specific emotions → behavioral responses). We focused on the fact that regret and disappointment have effects on consumer behavior. Especially, There are essentially two approaches in this research: the valence based approach and the specific emotions approach. The authors indicate theoretically and show empirically that it matters to distinguish these approaches in services research. and The present studies examined the influence of two regulatory mode concerns(Locomotion orientation and Assessment orientation) with making comparisons on experiencing post decisional regret and disappointment(Pierro, Kruglanski, and Higgins 2006; Pierro et al. 2008). When contemplating a decision with a negative outcome, it was predicted that high (vs low) locomotion would induce more disappointment than regret, whereas high (vs low) assessment would induce more regret than disappointment. The validity of the measurement scales was also confirmed by evaluations provided by the participating respondents and an independent advisory panel; samples provided recommendations throughout the primary, exploratory phases of the study. The resulting goodness of fit statistics were RMR or RMSEA of 0.05, GFI and AGFI greater than 0.9, and a chi-square with a 175.11. The indicators of the each constructs were very good measures of variables and had high convergent validity as evidenced by the reliability with a more than 0.9. Some items were deleted leaving those that reflected the cognitive dimension of importance rather than the dimension. The indicators were very good measures and had convergent validity as evidenced by the reliability of 0.9. These results for all constructs indicate the measurement fits the sample data well and is adequate for use. The scale for each factor was set by fixing the factor loading to one of its indicator variables and then applying the maximum likelihood estimation method. The results of the analysis showed that directions of the effects in the model are ultimately supported by the theory underpinning the causal linkages of the model. This research proposed 6 hypotheses on 6 latent variables and tested through structural equation modeling. 6 alternative measurements were compared through statistical significance test of the paths of research model and the overall fitting level of structural equation model and the result was successful. Also, Locomotion orientation more positively influences disappointment when internal attribution is high than low and Assessment orientation more positively influences regret when external attribution is high than low. In sum, The results of our studies suggest that assessment and locomotion concerns, both as chronic individual predispositions and as situationally induced states, influence the amount of people's experienced regret and disappointment. These findings contribute to our understanding of regulatory mode, regret, and disappointment. In previous studies of regulatory mode, relatively little attention has been paid to the post actional evaluative phase of self regulation. The present findings indicate that assessment concerns and locomotion concerns are clearly distinct in this phase, with individuals higher in assessment delving more into possible alternatives to past actions and individuals higher in locomotion engaging less in such reflective thought. What this suggests is that, separate from decreasing the amount of counterfactual thinking per se, individuals with locomotion concerns want to move on, to get on with it. Regret is about the past and not the future. Thus, individuals with locomotion concerns are less likely to experience regret. The results supported our predictions. We discuss the implications of these findings for the nature of regret and disappointment from the perspective of their relation to regulatory mode. Also, self regulatory mode and the specific emotions(disappointment and regret) were assessed and their influence on customers' behavioral responses(inaction, word of mouth) was examined, using a sample of 275 customers. It was found that emotions have a direct impact on behavior over and above the effects of negative emotions and customer behavior. Hence, We argue against incorporating emotions such as regret and disappointment into a specific response measure and in favor of a specific emotions approach on self regulation. Implications for services marketing practice and theory are discussed.

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Estimation of GARCH Models and Performance Analysis of Volatility Trading System using Support Vector Regression (Support Vector Regression을 이용한 GARCH 모형의 추정과 투자전략의 성과분석)

  • Kim, Sun Woong;Choi, Heung Sik
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.107-122
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    • 2017
  • Volatility in the stock market returns is a measure of investment risk. It plays a central role in portfolio optimization, asset pricing and risk management as well as most theoretical financial models. Engle(1982) presented a pioneering paper on the stock market volatility that explains the time-variant characteristics embedded in the stock market return volatility. His model, Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH), was generalized by Bollerslev(1986) as GARCH models. Empirical studies have shown that GARCH models describes well the fat-tailed return distributions and volatility clustering phenomenon appearing in stock prices. The parameters of the GARCH models are generally estimated by the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) based on the standard normal density. But, since 1987 Black Monday, the stock market prices have become very complex and shown a lot of noisy terms. Recent studies start to apply artificial intelligent approach in estimating the GARCH parameters as a substitute for the MLE. The paper presents SVR-based GARCH process and compares with MLE-based GARCH process to estimate the parameters of GARCH models which are known to well forecast stock market volatility. Kernel functions used in SVR estimation process are linear, polynomial and radial. We analyzed the suggested models with KOSPI 200 Index. This index is constituted by 200 blue chip stocks listed in the Korea Exchange. We sampled KOSPI 200 daily closing values from 2010 to 2015. Sample observations are 1487 days. We used 1187 days to train the suggested GARCH models and the remaining 300 days were used as testing data. First, symmetric and asymmetric GARCH models are estimated by MLE. We forecasted KOSPI 200 Index return volatility and the statistical metric MSE shows better results for the asymmetric GARCH models such as E-GARCH or GJR-GARCH. This is consistent with the documented non-normal return distribution characteristics with fat-tail and leptokurtosis. Compared with MLE estimation process, SVR-based GARCH models outperform the MLE methodology in KOSPI 200 Index return volatility forecasting. Polynomial kernel function shows exceptionally lower forecasting accuracy. We suggested Intelligent Volatility Trading System (IVTS) that utilizes the forecasted volatility results. IVTS entry rules are as follows. If forecasted tomorrow volatility will increase then buy volatility today. If forecasted tomorrow volatility will decrease then sell volatility today. If forecasted volatility direction does not change we hold the existing buy or sell positions. IVTS is assumed to buy and sell historical volatility values. This is somewhat unreal because we cannot trade historical volatility values themselves. But our simulation results are meaningful since the Korea Exchange introduced volatility futures contract that traders can trade since November 2014. The trading systems with SVR-based GARCH models show higher returns than MLE-based GARCH in the testing period. And trading profitable percentages of MLE-based GARCH IVTS models range from 47.5% to 50.0%, trading profitable percentages of SVR-based GARCH IVTS models range from 51.8% to 59.7%. MLE-based symmetric S-GARCH shows +150.2% return and SVR-based symmetric S-GARCH shows +526.4% return. MLE-based asymmetric E-GARCH shows -72% return and SVR-based asymmetric E-GARCH shows +245.6% return. MLE-based asymmetric GJR-GARCH shows -98.7% return and SVR-based asymmetric GJR-GARCH shows +126.3% return. Linear kernel function shows higher trading returns than radial kernel function. Best performance of SVR-based IVTS is +526.4% and that of MLE-based IVTS is +150.2%. SVR-based GARCH IVTS shows higher trading frequency. This study has some limitations. Our models are solely based on SVR. Other artificial intelligence models are needed to search for better performance. We do not consider costs incurred in the trading process including brokerage commissions and slippage costs. IVTS trading performance is unreal since we use historical volatility values as trading objects. The exact forecasting of stock market volatility is essential in the real trading as well as asset pricing models. Further studies on other machine learning-based GARCH models can give better information for the stock market investors.

Estimation of Genetic Parameters and Genetic Trends for Major Economic Traits in Swine (종돈의 주요 경제형질에 대한 유전모수 및 유전적 변화 추세 추정에 대한 연구)

  • Kang, Hyun-Sung;Nam, Ki-Chang;Li, Yunxiao;Kim, Kyung-Tai;Lee, Myeong-Seop;Yoon, Jong-Taek;Seo, Kang-Seok
    • Journal of Animal Science and Technology
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    • v.54 no.2
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    • pp.89-94
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    • 2012
  • The objective of this study was to estimate the genetic parameters and breeding value of swine using their economic traits. The traits considered were age at 90 kilograms body weight (D90 kg), backfat thickness (BF) and eye muscle area (EMA). Estimation of genetic parameters and breeding value from 18,668 heads considering the economic traits were based on farm performance data from May 2007 to April 2011. Estimation of genetic parameters based on economic traits revealed that the single best model was fitted after finding source of variance on fixed and random effects and estimated by a multiple trait model using DF-REML (Derivative-FREE Restricted Maximum Likelihood). In this study, the estimated heritabilities of Duroc, Berkshire, Landrace and Yorkshire were about 0.22-0.59 for the D90 kg, 0.47-0.62 for the BF and 0.23-0.37 for the EMA. Genetic correlation of D90 kg with BF and EMA of the four breeds were -0.01-0.24 and -0.35--0.23, respectively. Moreover, the genetic correlation of BF with EMA was -0.68--0.17. On the other hand, the phenotypic correlation of D90 kg with BF and EMA of the four breeds were about 0.01-0.11 and -0.37--0.21, respectively, while the phenotypic correlation of BF with EMA was -0.68--0.17. Results showed that the genetic trends of breeding value every year were decreasing for D90 kg, increasing for BF while for EMA inconsistent values were obtained.

Estimation of Heritability and Genetic Parameter for Growth and Body Traits of Pig (종돈의 성장 및 체형 형질에 대한 유전력 및 유전모수 추정에 관한 연구)

  • Kang, Hyun-Sung;Nam, Ki-Chang;Kim, Kyung-Tai;Na, Chong-Sam;Seo, Kang-Seok
    • Journal of Animal Science and Technology
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    • v.54 no.2
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    • pp.83-87
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    • 2012
  • The purpose of this study was to estimate genetic parameters for productive traits in swine. Productive traits were considered on average daily gain (ADG), body height (BH) and body length (BL). Genetic analysis was consisted of 18,668 heads for productive traits which were based on on-farm performance tested from May, 2007 to Apr, 2011. For estimating genetic parameters on productive traits, single best model was fitted after finding source of variance on fixed and random effects and estimated with a multiple trait animal model by using DF-REML (Derivative-Free Restricted Maximum Likelihood). The estimated heritabilities of Duroc, Berkshire, Landrace and Yorkshire 0.22-0.58 for the average daily gain, 0.34-0.41 for the body height and 0.4-0.52 for the body length, respectively. Phenotypic correlations of average daily gain with body height and body length for the four breeds were 0.42-0.48, 0.53-0.58, 0.34-0.46 and 0.47-0.56, respectively. Phenotypic correlations of body height with body length were 0.41, 0.57, 0.52, 0.59, respectively. The estimated genetic correlation coefficients of average daily gain with body height and body length estimated for the four breeds were 0.34-0.47, 0.70-0.75, 0.17-0.38 and 0.50-0.53, respectively. The estimated genetic correlation coefficients of body height with body length were 0.57, 0.69, 0.61 and 0.71, respectively.

A Study on the Intercity Mode Choice Behavior of Daegu Citizens According to the Introduction of Gyeongbu High-Speed Railway (경부 고속철도 개통에 따른 대구시민의 지역 간 통행수단 선택행태 분석에 관한 연구)

  • Yun, Dae-Sik;Yuk, Tae-Suk;Kim, Sang-Hwang
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.24 no.1 s.87
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    • pp.29-38
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    • 2006
  • After the first opening of the KTX in April 2004, travel time between major cities has been dramatically reduced. The reduction rates range from 32% to 47%. Considering travel time reduction between major cities, this study concerned about the intercity travel impact of the KTX operation. This study aimed to analyze intercity mode choice behavior of Daegu Citizens according to the first opening of the KTX. This study takes place in two sections. These are (i) the section of KTX between Daegu and Seoul, and (ii) the section of KTX between Daegu and Daejeon. This study estimated empirical models for analyzing intercity mode choice behavior according to the first opening of the KTX. This study makes use of the data from travel survey from Daegu metropolitan area. The main part of the survey was carried out in the KTX Dong-Daegu station. The survey data includes the information on travel from Daegu to Daejeon and from Daegu to Seoul. In order to analyze intercity choice behavior according to the frist opening of the KTX, multinomial model structure is used. For the model specification, a variety of behavioral assumptions about the factors which affect the mode choice, were considered. From the empirical model estimation, it is found that OVTT(Out-of-Vehicle Travel Time), OVTC(Out-of-Vehicle Travel Cost), IVTT(In-Vehicle Travel Time), IVTC(In-Vehicle Travel Cost), travel frequency, travel purpose, sex, age, occupation. household income, individual income are significant in choosing intercity travel mode. However, it is found that the intercity nde choice behavior is different between (i) the section of KTX between Daegu and Seoul, and (ii) the section of KTX between Daegu and Daejeon. Furthermore, some policy implications are discussed in conclusion.

Relationship between Brand Personality and the Personality of Consumers, and its Application to Corporate Branding Strategy

  • Kim, Young-Ei;Lee, Jung-Wan;Lee, Yong-Ki
    • Journal of Global Scholars of Marketing Science
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.27-57
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    • 2008
  • Many consumers enjoy the challenge of purchasing a brand that matches well with their own values and personalities (for example, Ko et al., 2008; Ko et al., 2006). Therefore, the personalities of consumers can impact on the final selection of a brand and its brand personality in two ways: first, the consumers may incline to purchase a brand or a product that reflects their own personalities; second, consumers tend to choose a company that has similar brand personalities to those brands that are being promoted. Therefore, the objectives of this study are following: 1. Is there any empirical relationship between a consumer's personality and the personality of a brand that he or she chooses? 2. Can a corporate brand be differentiated by the brand personality? In short, consumers are more likely to hold favorable attitudes towards those brands that match their own personality and will most probably purchase those brands matching well with their personality. For example, Matzler et al. (2006) found that extraversion and openness were positively related to hedonic product value; and that the personality traits directly (openness) and indirectly (extraversion, via hedonic value) influenced brand effects, which in turn droved attitudinal and purchase loyalty. Based on the above discussion, the following hypotheses are proposed: Hypothesis 1: the personality of a consumer is related to the brand personality of a product/corporate that he/she purchases. Kuksov (2007) and Wernerfelt (1990) argued that brands as a symbolic language allowed consumers to communicate their types to each other and postulated that consumers had a certain value of communicating their types to each other. Therefore, how brand meanings are established, and how a firm communicate with consumers about the meanings of the brand are interesting topics for research (for example, Escalas and Bettman, 2005; McCracken, 1989; Moon, 2007). Hence, the following hypothesis is proposed: Hypothesis 2: A corporate brand identity is differentiated by the brand personality. And there are significant differences among companies. A questionnaire was developed for collecting empirical measures of the Big-Five personality traits and brand personality variables. A survey was conducted to the online access panel members through the Internet during December 2007 in Korea. In total, 500 respondents completed the questionnaire, and considered as useable. Personality constructs were measured using the Five-factor Inventory (NEO-FFI) scale and a total of 30 items were actually utilized. Brand personality was measured using the five-dimension scale developed by Aaker (1997). A total of 17 items were actually utilized. The seven-point Likert-type scale was the format of responses, for example, from 1 indicating strongly disagreed to 7 for strongly agreed. The Analysis of Moment Structures (AMOS) was used for an empirical testing of the model, and the Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) was applied to estimate numerical values for the components in the model. To diagnose the presence of distribution problems in the data and to gauge their effects on the parameter estimates, bootstapping method was used. The results of the hypothesis-1 test empirically show that there exit certain causality relationship between a consumer's personality and the brand personality of the consumer's choice. Thus, the consumer's personality has an impact on consumer's final selection of a brand that has a brand personality matches well with their own personalities. In other words, the consumers are inclined to purchase a brand that reflects their own personalities and tend to choose a company that has similar brand personalities to those of the brand being promoted. The results of this study further suggest that certain dimensions of the brand personality cause consumers to have preference to certain (corporate) brands. For example, the conscientiousness, neuroticism, and extraversion of the consumer personality have positively related to a selection of "ruggedness" characteristics of the brand personality. Consumers who possess that personality dimension seek for matching with certain brand personality dimensions. Results of the hypothesis-2 test show that the average "ruggedness" attributes of the brand personality differ significantly among Korean automobile manufacturers. However, the result of ANOVA also indicates that there are no significant differences in the mean values among manufacturers for the "sophistication," "excitement," "competence" and "sincerity" attributes of the corporate brand personality. The tight link between what a firm is and its corporate brand means that there is far less room for marketing communications than there is with products and brands. Consequently, successful corporate brand strategies must position the organization within the boundaries of what is acceptable, while at the same time differentiating the organization from its competitors.

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