• Title/Summary/Keyword: maximum likelihood method.

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Modeling of the Failure Rates and Estimation of the Economical Replacement Time of Water Mains Based on an Individual Pipe Identification Method (개별관로 정의 방법을 이용한 상수관로 파손율 모형화 및 경제적 교체시기의 산정)

  • Park, Su-Wan;Lee, Hyeong-Seok;Bae, Cheol-Ho;Kim, Kyu-Lee
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.42 no.7
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    • pp.525-535
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    • 2009
  • In this paper a heuristic method for identifying individual pipes in water pipe networks to determine specific sections of the pipes that need to be replaced due to deterioration. An appropriate minimum pipe length is determined by selecting the pipe length that has the greatest variance of the average cumulative break number slopes among the various pipe lengths used. As a result, the minimum pipe length for the case study water network is determined as 4 m and a total of 39 individual pipe IDs are obtained. The economically optimal replacement times of the individual pipe IDs are estimated by using the threshold break rate of an individual pipe ID and the pipe break trends models for which the General Pipe Break Prediction Model(Park and Loganathan, 2002) that can incorporate the linear, exponential, and in-between of the linear and exponetial failure trends and the ROCOFs based on the modified time scale(Park et al., 2007) are used. The maximum log-likelihoods of the log-linear ROCOF and Weibull ROCOF estimated for the break data of a pipe are compared and the ROCOF that has a greater likelihood is selected for the pipe of interest. The effects of the social costs of a pipe break on the optimal replacement time are also discussed.

The Comparative Study of NHPP Software Reliability Model Based on Log and Exponential Power Intensity Function (로그 및 지수파우어 강도함수를 이용한 NHPP 소프트웨어 무한고장 신뢰도 모형에 관한 비교연구)

  • Yang, Tae-Jin
    • The Journal of Korea Institute of Information, Electronics, and Communication Technology
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    • v.8 no.6
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    • pp.445-452
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    • 2015
  • Software reliability in the software development process is an important issue. Software process improvement helps in finishing with reliable software product. Infinite failure NHPP software reliability models presented in the literature exhibit either constant, monotonic increasing or monotonic decreasing failure occurrence rates per fault. In this paper, proposes the reliability model with log and power intensity function (log linear, log power and exponential power), which made out efficiency application for software reliability. Algorithm to estimate the parameters used to maximum likelihood estimator and bisection method, model selection based on mean square error (MSE) and coefficient of determination($R^2$), for the sake of efficient model, was employed. Analysis of failure, using real data set for the sake of proposing log and power intensity function, was employed. This analysis of failure data compared with log and power intensity function. In order to insurance for the reliability of data, Laplace trend test was employed. In this study, the log type model is also efficient in terms of reliability because it (the coefficient of determination is 70% or more) in the field of the conventional model can be used as an alternative could be confirmed. From this paper, software developers have to consider the growth model by prior knowledge of the software to identify failure modes which can be able to help.

Analysis of Consumer Preferences for Wine (국산 포도주 개발을 위한 소비자 선호분석)

  • Park, Eun-Kyung;Ryu, Jin-Chun;Kim, Tae-Kyun
    • Food Science and Preservation
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.418-424
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    • 2010
  • Although the wine industry continues to grow, little empirical research on consumer preferences has been conducted. Thus, our objective was to analyze consumer views on wine attributes. A choice experiment (CE) was designed to detect a marginal willingness to pay for particular characteristics of wine (balance, flavor, color, clarity, and value-for-money). A questionnaire was administered and 286 responses were received. A multinomial logit model was estimated using the maximum likelihood method. The results indicated that balance, flavor, color, clarity, and price were all important to consumers. The CE data revealed that estimates of marginal willingness to pay were 31,899 won/bottle for balance, 23,088 won/bottle for flavor, 3,230 won/bottle for color, and 25,936 won/bottle for clarity. The balance of a wine was most important, and the flavor, clarity, and color were also significant. The results of this work will be of assistance in promoting the domestic wine industry.

Estimating the Reliability of Commercial Products in a Military Operational Environment Utilizing Field Data (사용현장 데이터를 이용한 군 운용 환경에서의 상용품목 신뢰도 예측)

  • Lim, Tae-Jin;Park, Joon-Soo;Ko, Byoung-Sung;Sung, In-Chul;Cho, Moon-Soo;Kim, Sung-Chul
    • Journal of the military operations research society of Korea
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    • v.36 no.1
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    • pp.77-90
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    • 2010
  • Adapting commercial equipments to military operations may provide the advantage of low cost, reduced acquisition time, and technology advancement. On the other hand, it may also offer the opportunity for a reliability and logistics risk because commercial products, standards, and practices may not meet military requirements. In addition to this, commercial vendors have little experience in providing the technical data required to support military deployment logistics. As more companies are equipped with data aquisition systems for their products, considerable amount of field warranty data has been accumulated. Typically, the field data for a given product comprise with the sales volume and the number of the claims for each period. Three types of product data are considered in this study: military designed equipment operating in a military environment, commercial equipment operating in a military environment, and commercial equipment operating in a commercial environment. We construct a estimation model for each type of data and propose an reliability transform method from a commercial environment to a military environment. Parametric methods for estimating the product reliability are proposed based on maximum likelihood criteria and least square criteria. Then a reliability transform procedure for handling different types of data is proposed in a consistent fashion. A case study is investigated to characterize our model based on a real field warranty data set.

Parameter Estimation and Analysis of Extreme Highest Tide Level in Marginal Seas around Korea (한국 연안 최극 고조위의 매개변수 추정 및 분석)

  • Jeong, Shin-Taek;Kim, Jeong-Dae;Ko, Dong-Hui;Yoon, Gil-Lim
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.20 no.5
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    • pp.482-490
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    • 2008
  • For a coastal or harbor structure design, one of the most important environmental factors is the appropriate extreme highest tide level condition. Especially, the information of extreme highest tide level distribution is essential for reliability design. In this paper, 23 set of extreme highest tide level data obtained from National Oceanographic Research Institute(NORI) were analyzed for extreme highest tide levels. The probability distributions considered in this research were Generalized Extreme Value(GEV), Gumbel, and Weibull distribution. For each of these distributions, three parameter estimation methods, i.e. the method of moments, maximum likelihood and probability weighted moments, were applied. Chi-square and Kolmogorov-Smirnov goodness-offit tests were performed, and the assumed distribution was accepted at the confidence level 95%. Gumbel distribution which best fits to the 22 tidal station was selected as the most probable parent distribution, and optimally estimated parameters and extreme highest tide level with various return periods were presented. The extreme values of Incheon, Cheju, Yeosu, Pusan, and Mukho, which estimated by Shim et al.(1992) are lower than that of this result.

A Comparative Study on the Infinite NHPP Software Reliability Model Following Chi-Square Distribution with Lifetime Distribution Dependent on Degrees of Freedom (수명분포가 자유도에 의존한 카이제곱분포를 따르는 무한고장 NHPP 소프트웨어 신뢰성 모형에 관한 비교연구)

  • Kim, Hee-Cheul;Kim, Jae-Wook
    • The Journal of Korea Institute of Information, Electronics, and Communication Technology
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    • v.10 no.5
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    • pp.372-379
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    • 2017
  • Software reliability factor during the software development process is elementary. Case of the infinite failure NHPP for identifying software failure, the occurrence rates per fault (hazard function) have the characteristic point that is constant, increases and decreases. In this paper, we propose a reliability model using the chi - square distribution which depends on the degree of freedom that represents the application efficiency of software reliability. Algorithm to estimate the parameters used to the maximum likelihood estimator and bisection method, a model selection based on the mean square error (MSE) and coefficient of determination($R^2$), for the sake of the efficient model, were employed. For the reliability model using the proposed degree of freedom of the chi - square distribution, the failure analysis using the actual failure interval data was applied. Fault data analysis is compared with the intensity function using the degree of freedom of the chi - square distribution. For the insurance about the reliability of a data, the Laplace trend test was employed. In this study, the chi-square distribution model depends on the degree of freedom, is also efficient about reliability because have the coefficient of determination is 90% or more, in the ground of the basic model, can used as a applied model. From this paper, the software development designer must be applied life distribution by the applied basic knowledge of the software to confirm failure modes which may be applied.

A Comparative Study on Reliability Attributes for Software Reliability Model Dependent on Lindley and Erlang Life Distribution (랜들리 및 어랑 수명분포에 의존한 소프트웨어 신뢰성 모형에 대한 신뢰도 속성 비교 연구)

  • Yang, Tae-Jin
    • The Journal of Korea Institute of Information, Electronics, and Communication Technology
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    • v.10 no.5
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    • pp.469-475
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    • 2017
  • Software reliability is one of the most basic and essential problems in software development. In order to detect the software failure phenomenon, the intensity function, which is the instantaneous failure rate in the non-homogeneous Poisson process, can have the property that it is constant, non-increasing or non-decreasing independently at the failure time. In this study, was compared the reliability performance of the software reliability model using the Landely lifetime distribution with the intensity function decreasing pattern and Erlang lifetime distribution from increasing to decreasing pattern in the software product testing process. In order to identify the software failure phenomenon, the parametric estimation was applied to the maximum likelihood estimation method. Therefore, in this paper, was compared and evaluated software reliability using software failure interval time data. As a result, the reliability of the Landely model is higher than that of the Erlang distribution model. But, in the Erlang distribution model, the higher the shape parameter, the higher the reliability. Through this study, the software design department will be able to help the software design by applying various life distribution and shape parameters, and providing software reliability attributes data and basic knowledge to software reliability model using software failure analysis.

Effect of errors in pedigree on the accuracy of estimated breeding value for carcass traits in Korean Hanwoo cattle

  • Nwogwugwu, Chiemela Peter;Kim, Yeongkuk;Chung, Yun Ji;Jang, Sung Bong;Roh, Seung Hee;Kim, Sidong;Lee, Jun Heon;Choi, Tae Jeong;Lee, Seung-Hwan
    • Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
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    • v.33 no.7
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    • pp.1057-1067
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    • 2020
  • Objective: This study evaluated the effect of pedigree errors (PEs) on the accuracy of estimated breeding value (EBV) and genetic gain for carcass traits in Korean Hanwoo cattle. Methods: The raw data set was based on the pedigree records of Korean Hanwoo cattle. The animals' information was obtained using Hanwoo registration records from Korean animal improvement association database. The record comprised of 46,704 animals, where the number of the sires used was 1,298 and the dams were 38,366 animals. The traits considered were carcass weight (CWT), eye muscle area (EMA), back fat thickness (BFT), and marbling score (MS). Errors were introduced in the pedigree dataset through randomly assigning sires to all progenies. The error rates substituted were 5%, 10%, 20%, 30%, 40%, 50%, 60%, 70%, and 80%, respectively. A simulation was performed to produce a population of 1,650 animals from the pedigree data. A restricted maximum likelihood based animal model was applied to estimate the EBV, accuracy of the EBV, expected genetic gain, variance components, and heritability (h2) estimates for carcass traits. Correlation of the simulated data under PEs was also estimated using Pearson's method. Results: The results showed that the carcass traits per slaughter year were not consistent. The average CWT, EMA, BFT, and MS were 342.60 kg, 78.76 ㎠, 8.63 mm, and 3.31, respectively. When errors were introduced in the pedigree, the accuracy of EBV, genetic gain and h2 of carcass traits was reduced in this study. In addition, the correlation of the simulation was slightly affected under PEs. Conclusion: This study reveals the effect of PEs on the accuracy of EBV and genetic parameters for carcass traits, which provides valuable information for further study in Korean Hanwoo cattle.

The Roles of Economic Benefits and Identity Salience: Inducing Factors in the Behavioral Intent to Use Outlet Shopping Centers (아울렛 쇼핑센터의 이용의도에서 아이덴티티 현저성의 요인과 경제성의 역할)

  • Choi, Nak-Hwan;Lim, Ah-Young;An, Lina
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.11 no.6
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    • pp.41-50
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    • 2013
  • Purpose - Inducing consumers' behavioral intent to use an outlet shopping center is a critical issue for managers since it can be used as a guide for developing marketing strategies. Low prices could lead to a growth in retail purchases, but there might also be a positive relationship between prices and customer perceptions of product quality. The extent to which consumers use price as a predictor of quality may differ according to the availability of important alternative cues such as brand, store name, and identity salience triggered by the store. Consumers can obtain non-economic benefits from marketing exchanges that go beyond basic economic achievement. We argue that identity salience can play a crucial mediating role when consumers, acting as exchange partners, seek to obtain social benefits. This study shows that identity salience could mediate the relationship between identity salience-inducing factors such as multi-finality, prestige and role performance, and consumers' behavioral intent to use an outlet shopping center. Research design, data and methodology - The survey was conducted on college students enrolled in marketing classes. A total of 200 questionnaires were distributed, of which only 194 were returned. After five incomplete questionnaires were excluded, a final sample of 189 was used for empirical analysis. Using a covariance structural analysis in Amos17, we confirmed the fit of the research model and estimated its parameters by using the maximum likelihood method. Results - The results of the hypotheses testing are as follows. First, both identity salience and economic benefits have positive effects on the behavioral intent to use an outlet shopping center. Second, role performance, prestige, and multi-finality have positive effects on identity salience. Finally, the additive analysis of the direct effects of identity salience-inducing factors shows that the role performance, prestige, and multi-finality factors have no direct effects on the behavioral intent to use an outlet shopping center, suggesting that identity salience plays a positive mediating role. Conclusions - This study informs marketers that not only price but shoppers' identity salience directly affects their intent to visit an outlet shopping center. To strengthen shoppers' identity salience, marketers should find ways to help shoppers fulfill their multiple social roles, realize their multiple goals, and achieve prestige. In other words, outlet shopping centers must improve their personal service environment in order to enhance their employees' service quality and assist the execution of multi-finality by minimizing the perceived costs (e.g., travel time, effort) associated with shopping trips, thus making it easier for consumers to combine visits to multiple stores in outlet shopping centers and buy the items required for their consumption goals. Outlet shopping centers must also offer assortments with both breadth and depth in order to help consumers play the social roles their social networks have given them.

Assessment of Hydrological Impact by Long-Term Land Cover Change using WMS HEC-1 Model in Gyeongan-cheon Watershed (WMS HEC-1 모형을 이용한 경안천 유역의 경년 수문변화 분석)

  • Lee, Jun-Woo;Kwon, Hyung-Joong;Shin, Sha-Chul;Kim, Seong-Joon
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.6 no.1
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    • pp.107-118
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    • 2003
  • The purpose of this study is to assess the hydrological impact on a watershed from long-term land cover changes. Gyeongan-cheon watershed($558.2km^2$) was selected and WMS(watershed modeling system) HEC-1 model was adopted as an evaluation tool. To identify land cover changes, five Landsat images(1980/2/15, 1986/4/15, 1990/4/26, 1996/4/26, 2000/5/17) were selected and analyzed using maximum likelihood method. As a result, urban areas have increased by 5.6% and forest areas have decreased by 6.1% between 1980 and 2000. SCS curve number increased by 9.8. To determine model parameters and evaluate HEC-1 model, five storm events(1998/5/2, 1998/8/23, 1998/9/30, 1999/5/3, 2000/7/29) were used. The simulated stream flow agreed well with the observed one with relative errors ranging from 9% to 36%. For 254 mm daily rainfall of 30 years frequency, due to the increase of urban areas peak flow increased by $455m^3/sec$ and the time of peak flow reduced about four hours for 20 years land cover changes.

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