• Journal of Ecology and Environment
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• 제34권2호
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• pp.203-214
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• 2011

The objectives of this research were to predict land-use/land-cover change at the Sakaerat Environmental Research Station (SERS) and to analyze its consequences on the distribution for Black-crested Bulbul (Pycnonotus melanicterus), which is a popular species for bird-watching activity. The Dyna-CLUE model was used to determine land-use allocation between 2008 and 2020 under two scenarios. Trend scenario was a continuation of recent land-use change (2002-2008), while the integrated land-use management scenario aimed to protect 45% of study area under intact forest, rehabilitated forest and reforestation for renewable energy. The maximum entropy model (Maxent), Geographic Information System (GIS) and FRAGSTATS package were used to predict bird occurrence and assess landscape fragmentation indices, respectively. The results revealed that parts of secondary growth, agriculture areas and dry dipterocarp forest close to road networks would be converted to other land use classes, especially eucalyptus plantation. Distance to dry evergreen forest, distance to secondary growth and distance to road were important factors for Black-crested Bulbul distribution because this species prefers to inhabit ecotones between dense forest and open woodland. The predicted for occurrence of Black-crested Bulbul in 2008 covers an area of 3,802 ha and relatively reduces to 3,342 ha in 2020 for trend scenario and to 3,627 ha for integrated-land use management scenario. However, intact habitats would be severely fragmented, which can be noticed by total habitat area, largest patch index and total core area indices, especially under the trend scenario. These consequences are likely to diminish the recreation and education values of the SERS to the public.

• 한국환경복원기술학회지
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• 제21권5호
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• pp.39-60
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• 2018

National parks are designated for the purpose of maintenance, conservation and utilization of different habitats. Therefore, it is necessary to select habitats of a high value as a protected area in order to balance conservation and development. However, the existing national park boundary adjustment and new designation criteria only focused on the endangered species and protected area, without proper evaluation of the habitat value of actual species. Therefore, this study aims to quantitatively evaluate habitat function in terms of biodiversity and habitat value, so that it can be referred to for the designation and boundary adjustment of national parks. We assessed species diversity and habitat values for each of the habitat types, for mammals only, as they are able to choose preferred habitats. In order to evaluate biodiversity, we used Maxent to derive species richness map and used InVEST's Habitat quality model to evaluate habitat value. As a result of evaluation, species richness was high in the national park boundary area. Also, even if the same edge is adjacent to the development area depending on the land cover, the species richness is low. Compared with Wolaksan and Sobaeksan National Park, the species richness and habitat value of the northern area, which is connected with other forests, were higher than those of the southern area where roads were developed. Therefore, it is expected that the use of the result of this study for the national park boundary adjustment and management will enhance the function of the national park as a habitat.

• 농업과학연구
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• 제46권3호
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• pp.661-670
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• 2019

In this study, we constructed a model of an area where the production and production amount of wild vegetables which are designated as short term income forest products for the whole country are self-sufficient for the representative Eastern Braken fern(Pteridium aquilinum)and Edible aster(Aster scaber). The difference between the existing cultivation site and the model result was examined, and the distribution of the cultivable area was simulated according to the near future climate change by the 2050s. The degree of agreement between the cultivated area and the actual native area was very low at 14.5% for Eastern Braken fern and 12.9% for Edible aster. Using the Maxent model, which has already been proven by many research examples, the cultivation maps through the model can guarantee statistical accuracy by considering many variables. To analyze future location changes, the RCP 4.5 scenario and the RCP 8.5 scenario were applie Edible aster d to predict potential future cultivable areas and compare them to the present. There was no decrease in the cultivable area due to climate change nationwide. However, in the RCP 8.5 scenario for Eastern Braken fern and the RCP 4.5 scenario for Edible aster, declining areas such as Gangwon-do, Jeollabuk-do and Gyeongsangbuk-do showed prominence according to the scenarios. The result of this study suggests that various models can be used for the production of short-term forest productivity maps and it will be used as a climate change impact assessment data for competitive forest products considering the influence of future climate change.

• Journal of Species Research
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• 제12권1호
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• pp.109-113
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• 2023

To build a distribution model for Haemadipsa rjukjuana, we collected current occurrences of the species on Heuksando with adjacent islands. Based on current locations and 19 climate variables with DEM (digital elevation model), we built the MaxEnt (maximum entropy) species distribution model for H. rjukjuana in the islands. Then, we applied the MaxEnt model to the mainland of Korea with the current climate condition and topology. In addition to the current distribution scenario, we predicted the future distribution scenarios in Korea by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) global climate models. Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 585 of two CMIP6 models(GISS-E2-1 and INM-CM4-8) from 2040 to 2100 were used for the future projection.

• 환경영향평가
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• 제23권6호
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• pp.453-465
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• 2014

생물다양성우수지역은 종다양성이 가장 우수한 지역 또는 훼손될 우려가 가장 큼에도 생물상이 가장 다양한 지역으로서, 생물다양성 보전을 위한 최적지를 선택하는 데 필수적인 요소이다. 이 연구의 목적은 포유류를 대상으로 전국단위에서 종풍부도, 희귀도를 분석하여 생물다양성우수지역을 파악하는 것이다. 대상종은 멸종위기 포유류 4종, 일반종 11종 등 총 15종을 선정하였다. 지형, 거리, 식생구조 등을 환경변수로 설정하였고, Maxent(Maximum Entropy Method)를 활용하여 종분포모형을 구축하였다. 종풍부도와 종희귀도를 통해 생물다양성을 분석하였다. 연구 결과는 다음과 같다. 첫 번째, 종풍부도를 분석한 결과, 멸종위기 포유류를 대상으로 할 때에는 높고 가파른 산림이 생물다양성우수지역인 것으로 나타났다. 반면, 전체종을 대상으로 했을 때는 저지대 산림에서 종풍부도가 높았다. 두 번째, 멸종위기 포유류를 대상으로 할 때에는 희귀도와 종풍부도가 유사한 공간분포를 보였다. 그러나 전체종을 대상으로 할때에는 저지대 산림 뿐만 아니라 고지대 산림에서도 다소 희귀도가 높은 것으로 나타나, 종풍부도와는 다소 다른 공간분포를 보였다. 이와 같은 연구 결과는 추후 생물다양성 평가, 서식지 보전, 생태축 구축, 보호지역 관리 등에 활용될 수 있을 것이다.

• 한국응용곤충학회지
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• 제54권3호
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• pp.179-189
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• 2015

본 연구에서는 2014년 전국을 대상으로 갈색날개매미충의 국내 분포, 기주식물, 잠재서식지를 조사하였다. 갈색날개매미충은 43개 시군에서 관찰되었고, 경북에서 처음 확인되었다. 기주식물은 산지 및 농작물에서 53과 113종으로 확인되었고, 선행연구를 포함하여 62과 138종으로 조사되었다. 주요 기주식물은 사과나무, 두릅나무, 때죽나무, 갯버들, 닥나무, 자귀나무, 가죽나무, 밤나무, 아까시나무, 산수유 등이었다. 종분포 예측은 Maxent 모형을 사용하였고, 12개의 모형변수(8개 기후변수, 1개 토지피복변수, 1개 임상변수, 1개 생태자연도 변수, 1개 거리변수)를 활용하였다. 모형의 정확도는 0.884로 매우 우수하였다. 연구결과에 의하면 여름철 강수량, 여름철 평균기온, 임상현황, 토지이용현황이 갈색날개매미충의 잠재서식지에 영향을 미치는 중요한 요인으로 밝혀졌다.

• Ecology and Resilient Infrastructure
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• 제2권3호
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• pp.206-215
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• 2015

기후변화에 따른 침입외래식물의 잠재적 분포지를 예측하는 것은 하천과 저수지에서 생물다양성 보전과 생태적 관리를 위하여 중요하고 해결해야 할 과제이다. 본 연구에서는 한반도에서 털물참새피 (Paspalum distichum var. indutum)의 잠재적 미래 분포에 미치는 기후변화의 영향을 파악하였다. 털물참새피는 담수생태계의 수변에서 심각한 경제적, 환경적 영향을 미치는 침입 초본식물이다. 현재와 미래의 기후에서 털물참새피의 잠재적 분포를 추정하기 위하여 Maxent 모델을 적용하였다. 기후변화의 영향을 파악하기 위하여 현재 기후 자료로서 Worldclim 1.4의 19개 기후 변수를 사용하였고, 미래의 기후 자료로서 RCP 2.6와 RCP 8.5 시나리오에 따라서 HadGEM2- AO에 의하여 예측된 기후 변수를 사용하였다. 예측된 털물참새피의 현재 잠재분포지는 실제 위치 자료와 거의 일치하였다. 이 식물의 잠재 분포에 영향을 미치는 환경 변수는 가장 따뜻한 분기의 강수량, 연평균기온 및 가장 추운 분기의 평균기온이었다. 2050년에 기후변화에 따른 털물참새피의 분포 예측에 의하면 이 식물의 현재 분포지에서는 기후 적합성이 대체로 감소하였고, 이 식물이 보다 내륙과 북쪽으로 분포지가 확대되었다. 본 연구에서 사용한 예측 모델은 잠재적 분포를 이해하고 분포 변화에 미치는 기후변화의 영향을 파악하며 외래식물에 의한 생물적 침입의 위해성을 효과적으로 관리하는데 유용할 것으로 기대된다.

• Journal of Ecology and Environment
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• 제48권1호
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• pp.96-109
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• 2024

Background: Khyber Pakhtunkhwa government initiated the Billion Tree Tsunami Afforestation Project including regeneration and afforestation approaches. An effort was made to assess the distribution characteristics of afforested species under present and future climatic scenarios using ecological niche modelling. For sustainable forest management, landscape ecology can play a significant role. A significant change in the potential distribution of tree species is expected globally with changing climate. Ecological niche modeling provides the valuable information about the current and future distribution of species that can play crucial role in deciding the potential sites for afforestation which can be used by government institutes for afforestation programs. In this context, the potential distribution of 8 tree species, Cedrus deodara, Dalbergia sissoo, Juglans regia, Pinus wallichiana, Eucalyptus camaldulensis, Senegalia modesta, Populus ciliata, and Vachellia nilotica was modeled. Results: Maxent species distribution model was used to predict current and future distribution of tree species using bioclimatic variables along with soil type and elevation. Future climate scenarios, shared socio-economic pathways (SSP)2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 were considered for the years 2041-2060 and 2081-2100. The model predicted high risk of decreasing potential distribution under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 climate change scenarios for years 2041-2060 and 2081-2100, respectively. Recent afforestation conservation sites of these 8 tree species do not fall within their predicted potential habitat for SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 climate scenarios. Conclusions: Each tree species responded independently in terms of its potential habitat to future climatic conditions. Cedrus deodara and P. ciliata are predicted to migrate to higher altitude towards north in present and future climate scenarios. Habitat of D. sissoo, P. wallichiana, J. regia, and V. nilotica is practiced to be declined in future climate scenarios. Eucalyptus camaldulensis is expected to be expanded its suitability area in future with eastward shift. Senegalia modesta habitat increased in the middle of the century but decreased afterwards in later half of the century. The changing and shifting forests create challenges for sustainable landscapes. Therefore, the study is an attempt to provide management tools for monitoring the climate change-driven shifting of forest landscapes.

• 한국환경복원기술학회지
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• 제18권1호
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• pp.71-82
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• 2015

Hyla suweonensis is an endemic species and is designated as the only endangered species I among amphibians in 2012 by the Ministry of Environment, however studies about its habitat are lacking. This study was carried out to analyze habitat of H. suweonensis based on the spatial information using Maxent (Maximum entropy model as a species distribution model. We detected 45 present points until 2013 and 10 environmental variables by literature review for the model. The results showed that $429km^2$ (0.95%) of the study area, which was about 7.75% of the total agricultural area, was high possible habitats of H. suweonensis. The habitat of H. suweonensis was analyzed by over $1km^2$ rice paddy fields that were lower elevations, flat slopes, and not fragmented. The distance from forests and rivers was identified as a factor that affects its habitat possibilities. In order to conserve H. suweonensis, a large area of rice paddy fields should be preserved, and especially the area around forests and rivers would be required more intensive management. In addition, to compensate for degraded habitats of H. suweonensis in urban areas like as Suwon city, considering integrated watershed management strategy could be effective in the perspective of ecological habitat network of H. suweonensis.

• 한국환경복원기술학회지
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• 제15권3호
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• pp.75-84
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• 2012

The importance of the genetic value of native plants has been raised recently after the adoption of Nagoya Protocol. In this stream, this research focused on the future distribution of Megaleranthis saniculifolia which has been evolved and adapted to Korean natural environment and classified as an endemic endangered species by IUCN. The distribution of the species in future are projected based on 'present potential distribution area' by adopting SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenarios) A1B climate change scenario using 6 types of GCM (General Circulation Model). The major results of the research are as follows : habitats of Megaleranthis saniculifolia. (1) will be reduced by 44% nation wide; (2) in Chungcheongngnam Do and Jeollanam Do will be the most affected; and (3) in high altitude in Chungcheongbuk Do, Gyunggi Do and Gangwon Do will be relatively less affected.