• Title/Summary/Keyword: mathematical assessment

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Development of a predictive model describing the growth of Staphylococcus aureus in processed meat product galbitang (식육추출가공품 중 갈비탕에서의 Staphylococcus aureus 성장예측모델 개발)

  • Son, Na-Ry;Kim, An-Na;Choi, Won-Seok;Yoon, Sang-Hyun;Suh, Soo-Hwan;Joo, In-Sun;Kim, Soon-Han;Kwak, Hyo-Sun;Cho, Joon-Il
    • Korean Journal of Food Science and Technology
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    • v.49 no.3
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    • pp.274-278
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    • 2017
  • In this study, predictive mathematical models were developed to estimate the kinetics of Staphylococcus aureus growth in processed meat product galbitang. Processed meat product galbitang was inoculated with 0.1 mL of S. aureus culture and stored at 4, 10, 20, $37^{\circ}C$. The ${\mu}_{max}$ (maximum specific growth rate) and LPD (lag phase duration) values were calculated. The primary model was used to develop a response surface secondary model. The growth parameters were analyzed using the square root model as a function of storage temperature. The developed model was confirmed by calculating RMSE (Root Mean Square Error) values as statistic parameters. The LPD decreased, but ${\mu}_{max}$ increased with an increase in the storage temperature. At 4, 10, 20 and $37^{\circ}C$, $R^2$ was 0.99, 0.98, 0.99 and 0.99, respectively; RMSE was 0.39. The developed predictive growth model can be used to predict the risk of S. aureus contamination in processed meat product galbitang; hence, it has potential as an input model for the risk assessment.

Study on Tumor Control Probability and Normal Tissue Complication Probability in 3D Conformal Radiotherapy (방사선 입체조형치료에 대한 종양치유확율과 정상조직손상확율에 관한 연구)

  • 추성실
    • Progress in Medical Physics
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    • v.9 no.4
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    • pp.227-245
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    • 1998
  • A most appropriate model of 3-D conformal radiotherapy has been induced by clinical evaluation and animal study, and therapeutic gains were evaluated by numerical equation of tumor control probability(TCP) and normal tissue complication probability (NTCP). The radiation dose to the tumor and the adjacent normal organs was accurately evaluated and compared using the dose volume histogram(DVH). The TCP and NTCP was derived from the distribution of given dosage and irradiated volume, and these numbers were used as the biological index for the assessment of the treatment effects. Ten patients with liver disease have been evaluated and 3 dogs were sacrificed for this study. Based on the 3-D images of the tumor and adjacent organs, the optimum radiation dose and the projection direction which could maximize the radiation effect while minimizing the effects to the adjacent organs could be decided. 3). The most effective collimation for the normal adjacent organs was made through the beams eye view with the use of multileaf collimator. When the dose was increased from 50Gy to 70Gy, the TCP for the conventional 2-port radiation and the 5-port multidimensional therapy was 0.982 and 0.995 respectively, while the NTCP was 0.725 and 0.142 respectively, suggesting that the 3-D conformal radiotherapy might be the appropriate therapy to apply sufficient radiation dose to the tumor while minimizing the damages to the normal areas of the liver. Positive correlation was observed between the NTCP and the actual complication of the normal liver in the animal study. The present study suggest that the use of 3-D conformal radiotherapy and the application of the mathematical models of TCP and NTCP may provide the improvements in the treatment of hepatoma with enhanced results.

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Pollutant Loading Estimate from Yongdam Watershed Using BASINS/HSPF (BASINS/HSPF를 이용한 용담댐 유역의 오염부하량 산정)

  • Jang, Jae-Ho;Jung, Kwang-Wook;Jeon, Ji-Hong;Yoon, Chun-Gyeong
    • Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
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    • v.39 no.2 s.116
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    • pp.187-197
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    • 2006
  • A mathematical modeling program called Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN (HSPF) developed by the United States Environmental Protection Agency(EPA) was applied to the Yongdam Watershed to examine its applicability for loading estimates in watershed scale. It was run under BASINS (Better Assessment Science for Integrating point and Nonpoint Sources) program, and the model was validated using monitoring data of 2002 ${\sim}$ 2003. The model efficiency of runoff was high in comparison between simulated and observed data, while it was relatively low in the water quality parameters. But its reliability and performance were within the expectation considering complexity of the watershed and pollutant sources and land uses intermixed in the watershed. The estimated pollutant load from Yongdam watershed for BOD, T-N and T-P was 1,290,804 kg $yr{-1}$, 3,753,750 kg $yr{-1}$ and 77,404 kg $yr{-1}$,respectively. Non-point source (NPS) contribution was high showing BOD 57.2%, T-N 92.0% and T-P 60.2% of the total annual loading in the study area. The NPS loading during the monsoon rainy season (June to September) was about 55 ${\sim}$ 72% of total NPS loading, and runoff volume was also in a similar rate (69%). However, water quality was not necessarily high during the rainy season, and showed a decreasing trend with increasing water flow. Overall, the BASINS/HSPF was applied to the Yongdam watershed successfully without difficulty, and it was found that the model could be used conveniently to assess watershed characteristics and to estimate pollutant loading in watershed scale.