• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2020년도 학술발표회
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• pp.121-121
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• 2020

Varying dominant processes, including Tropical Cyclone (TC) and non-TC rainfall events, have been known to drive the occurrence of precipitation in South Korea. With the changes in the pattern of the Earth's climate due to anthropogenic activities, nonstationarity or changes in the magnitude and frequency of these dominant processes have been separately observed for the past decades and are expected to continue in the coming years. These changes often cause unprecedented hydrologic events such as extreme flooding which pose a greater risk to the society. This study aims to take into account a more reliable future climate condition with two dominant processes. Diverse statistical models including the hidden markov chain, K-nearest neighbor algorithm, and quantile mappings are utilized to mimic future rainfall events based on the recorded historical data with the consideration of the varying effects of TC and non-TC events. The data generated is then utilized to the hydrologic model to conduct a flood frequency analysis. Results in this study emphasize the need to consider the nonstationarity of design rainfalls to fully grasp the degree of future flooding events when designing urban water infrastructures.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2020년도 학술발표회
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• pp.123-123
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• 2020

The present study is aimed to correcting radar-based mean areal precipitation forecasts to improve urban flood predictions and uncertainty analysis of water levels contributed at each stage in the process. For this reason, a long short-term memory (LSTM) network is used to reproduce three-hour mean areal precipitation (MAP) forecasts from the quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) of the McGill Algorithm for Precipitation nowcasting by Lagrangian Extrapolation (MAPLE). The Gangnam urban catchment located in Seoul, South Korea, was selected as a case study for the purpose. A database was established based on 24 heavy rainfall events, 22 grid points from the MAPLE system and the observed MAP values estimated from five ground rain gauges of KMA Automatic Weather System. The corrected MAP forecasts were input into the developed coupled 1D/2D model to predict water levels and relevant inundation areas. The results indicate the viability of the proposed framework for generating three-hour MAP forecasts and urban flooding predictions. For the analysis uncertainty contributions of the source related to the process, the Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) using delayed rejection and adaptive metropolis algorithm is applied. For this purpose, the uncertainty contributions of the stages such as QPE input, QPF MAP source LSTM-corrected source, and MAP input and the coupled model is discussed.

• 천문학회보
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• 제44권2호
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• pp.75.4-75.4
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• 2019

We present a quantitative analysis of the relationship between the gas dynamics and star formation history of DDO 210 which is an irregular dwarf galaxy in the local Universe. We perform profile analysis of an high-resolution neutral hydrogen (HI) data cube of the galaxy taken with the large Very Large Array (VLA) survey, LITTLE THINGS using newly developed algorithm based on a Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) technique. The complex HI structure and kinematics of the galaxy are decomposed into multiple kinematic components in a quantitative way like 1) bulk motions which are most likely to follow the underlying circular rotation of the disk, 2) non-circular motions deviating from the bulk motions, and 3) kinematically cold and warm components with narrower and wider velocity dispersion. The decomposed kinematic components are then spatially correlated with the distribution of stellar populations obtained from the color-magnitude diagram (CMD) fitting method. The cold and warm gas components show negative and positive correlations between their velocity dispersions and the surface star formation rates of the populations with ages of < 40 Myr and 100~400 Myr, respectively. The cold gas is most likely to be associated with the young stellar populations. Then the stellar feedback of the young populations could influence the warm gas. The age difference between the populations which show the correlations indicates the time delay of the stellar feedback.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• 제87권1호
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• pp.1-18
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• 2023

The paper presents a Bayesian Finite element (FE) model updating methodology by utilizing modal data. The dynamic condensation technique is adopted in this work to reduce the full system model to a smaller model version such that the degrees of freedom (DOFs) in the reduced model correspond to the observed DOFs, which facilitates the model updating procedure without any mode-matching. The present work considers both the MPV and the covariance matrix of the modal parameters as the modal data. Besides, the modal data identified from multiple setups is considered for the model updating procedure, keeping in view of the realistic scenario of inability of limited number of sensors to measure the response of all the interested DOFs of a large structure. A relationship is established between the modal data and structural parameters based on the eigensystem equation through the introduction of additional uncertain parameters in the form of modal frequencies and partial mode shapes. A novel sampling strategy known as the Metropolis-within-Gibbs (MWG) sampler is proposed to sample from the posterior Probability Density Function (PDF). The effectiveness of the proposed approach is demonstrated by considering both simulated and experimental examples.

• 천문학회보
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• 제45권1호
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• pp.48.4-49
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• 2020

We reconstruct the expansion history of the universe using type Ia supernovae (SN Ia) in a manner independent of any cosmological model assumptions. To do so, we implement a nonparametric iterative smoothing method on the Joint Light-curve Analysis (JLA) data while exploring the SN Ia light-curve hyperparameter space by Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling. We test to see how the posteriors of these hyperparameters depend on cosmology, whether using different dark energy models or reconstructions shift these posteriors. Our constraints on the SN Ia light-curve hyperparameters from our model-independent analysis are very consistent with the constraints from using different parameterizations of the equation of state of dark energy, namely the flat ΛCDM cosmology, the Chevallier-Polarski-Linder model, and the Phenomenologically Emergent Dark Energy (PEDE) model. This implies that the distance moduli constructed from the JLA data are mostly independent of the cosmological models. We also studied that the possibility the light-curve parameters evolve with redshift and our results show consistency with no evolution. The reconstructed expansion history of the universe and dark energy properties also seem to be in good agreement with the expectations of the standard ΛCDM model. However, our results also indicate that the data still allow for considerable flexibility in the expansion history of the universe. This work is published in ApJ.

• Smart Structures and Systems
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• 제31권1호
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• pp.29-43
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• 2023

This study investigates the possibility of damage detection of a real bridge by means of a modal parameter-based finite element (FE) model update. Field moving vehicle experiments were conducted on an actual steel plate girder bridge. In the damage experiment, cracks were applied to the bridge to simulate damage states. A fast Bayesian FFT method was employed to identify and quantify uncertainties of the modal parameters then these modal parameters were used in the Bayesian model update. Material properties and boundary conditions are taken as uncertainties and updated in the model update process. Observations showed that although some differences existed in the results obtained from different model classes, the discrepancy between modal parameters of the FE model and those experimentally obtained was reduced after the model update process, and the updated parameters in the numerical model were indeed affected by the damage. The importance of boundary conditions in the model updating process is also observed. The capability of the MCMC model update method for application to the actual bridge structure is assessed, and the limitation of FE model update in damage detection of bridges using only modal parameters is observed.

• 한국정보통신학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국정보통신학회 2022년도 추계학술대회
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• pp.150-152
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• 2022

본 연구의 목적은 LTC(Liquid Time-constant Network)를 기반으로 감각 뉴런의 동작과 시냅스 가소성을 고려한 모델을 제안하는 것이다. 이를 위해 뉴런 연결 구조를 뉴런의 수가 증가하는 형태, 감소하는 형태, 증가 후 감소하는 형태, 감소 후 증가하는 형태의 4가지로 설정하여 실험을 진행하였다. 변경한 모델의 성능이 LTC에 비해 개선되었는지 알아보기 위한 데이터는 시계열 예측 데이터셋을 사용하였다. 실험 결과, 감각 뉴런의 모델링을 적용하는 것은 항상 성능 향상을 불러오는 것은 아니지만 데이터셋의 종류에 따라 적절히 학습 규칙을 선택하는 것을 통해 성능이 향상됨을 관찰하였다. 또한, 뉴런의 연결 구조는 4개 층 이하일 때 향상된 성능을 보였다.

• KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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• 제18권1호
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• pp.64-88
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• 2024

Security and reliability are the utmost importance facts in intelligent networked vehicles. Stochastic Petri Net and Z (SPZN) as an excellent formal verification tool for modeling concurrent systems, can effectively handles concurrent operations within a system, establishes relationships among components, and conducts verification and reasoning to ensure the system's safety and reliability in practical applications. However, the application of a system with numerous nodes to Petri Net often leads to the issue of state explosion. To tackle these challenges, a refinement and abstraction method based on SPZN is proposed in this paper. This approach can not only refine and abstract the Stochastic Petri Net but also establish a corresponding relationship with the Z language. In determining the implementation rate of transitions in Stochastic Petri Net, we employ the interval average and weighted average method, which significantly reduces the time and space complexity compared to alternative techniques and is suitable for expert systems at various levels. This reduction facilitates subsequent comprehensive system analysis and module analysis. Furthermore, by analyzing the properties of Markov Chain isomorphism in the case study, recommendations for minimizing system risks in the application of intelligent parking within the intelligent networked vehicle system can be put forward.

• 대한토목학회논문집
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• 제14권3호
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• pp.509-521
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• 1994

본 연구는 간헐 수문과정인 일 강수계열의 모의발생 모델을 개발한 것으로서, 일 강수계열의 구조적 특성인 강수발생과정과 습윤일의 강수량과정을 고려하였다. 본 연구는 두편이 논문으로 구성되어 있으며, 연구(I)에서는 강수발생과정을 위하여 고대재생과정(ARP)을 이용하였으며, 건조 습윤계속기간 분포에 대해서는 TBD, TPD, TNBD, LSD의 4가지 이산형 확률분포를 적용하였다. 후속논문인 연구(II)에서는 강수발생과정으로 Markov 연쇄모델을 이용한다. 그리고 습윤일의 강수량 분포에 대해서는 Gamma 분포, Pearson Type-III 분포, Type-III 극치분포, 3모수 Weibull 분포의 4가지 연속형 확률분포를 적용하였다. 연구(I)에서는 낙동강 유역의 대구, 고령, 밀양, 영주 관측소 및 섬진강 유역의 하동, 순창, 구례 관측소의 일 강수계열 자료를 사용하였으며, 강수발생과정과 습윤일의 강수량과정을 조합하여 구성한 두가지의 일 강수계열 모의발생 모델 A-W, A-G 모델의 적용성을 확인하였다.

• 한국통신학회논문지
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• 제24권12A호
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• pp.1922-1931
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• 1999

멀티캐스트 트래픽의 특징은 한 노드에서 특정 다수노드로 셀을 전송하는 방법으로써 ATM 스위치의 중요한 기능으로 부각되고 있다. 그러나, 기존에 나와 있는 point-to-point 스위치로 멀티캐스트 기능을 수행할 경우 멀티캐스트 셀 뿐만 아니라 유니캐스트 셀도 복사망을 통과하게 되어 복사망에서 추가적인 부하가 발생된다. 이 추가적인 부하로 인하여 멀티캐스트 셀이 다른 셀과의 충돌로 셀이 손실되는 데드락 현상이 발생하여 전체 스위치 성능을 현저히 감소시킨다. 또한 입력 저장 스위치 (Input queued switch)구조는 전체 스위치의 성능을 저하시키는 HOL 블록킹(blocking)의 단점을 가지고 있다. 제안한 스위치 구조는 HOL 블록킹 및 데드락 현상을 줄이기 위하여 공유 메모리 스위치를 이용하였다. 스위치의 복잡도와 셀 처리 시간을 줄이고 처리율(throughput)의 향상을 위해 셀 형태에 따라 분리해서 경로 배정하는 방식과 제어부에서 최대 2N개의 셀들을 동시에 처리하는 스케줄링 기법을 이용하였다. 또한 특정 포트로 트래픽이 밀집되었을 때 발생하는 손실률을 줄이기 위하여 출력 메모리를 이용하였으며 메모리 효율성 향상을 위하여 입력 셀의 ?'?형태에 따라 셀들을 분리 저장하는 방식과출력 메모리에서 일정 시간이 지난 셀을 폐기하는 방식을 이용하였다. 제안한 스위치의 분석을 위하여 마코흐(Markov) 체인을 이용한 성능 해석을 실시하였고 버스트(burst) 트래픽 조건에서의 모의 실험을 통하여 제안한 방식과 기존의 방식간의 성능을 비교, 분석하였다.