• Journal of the Korean Regional Science Association
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• v.34 no.1
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• pp.3-17
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• 2018

This paper empirically investigates time-varying regression parameter of hedonic price model for Seoul office rental market in distinct periods of a market cycle. Office rental index is constructed and the index indicates that the global financial crisis differentiates the analysis period into decline stage and recovery stage. Pre-crisis period is classified into decline stage and post-crisis is classified into recovery stage. Structural break-point test suggests structural change of hedonic model of rent determinants occurred in 2008. Evidence indicates that individual regression parameters of hedonic price model for decline stage are significantly different from those for recovery stage. Changes in the regression parameters of land price, distance to metro, building size, building age, and conversion rate are consistent. In recovery stage, the effect of locational advantage on office rent decreases whereas the effect of building characteristics on the rent increases.

• Proceedings of the Korea Inteligent Information System Society Conference
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• 2003.05a
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• pp.329-337
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• 2003

Stock market prediction is regarded as a challenging task of financial time-series prediction. There have been many studies using artificial neural networks in this area. Recently, support vector machines (SVMs) are regarded as promising methods for the prediction of financial time-series because they me a risk function consisting the empirical ewer and a regularized term which is derived from the structural risk minimization principle. In this study, I apply SVM to predicting the Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI). In addition, this study examines the feasibility of applying SVM in financial forecasting by comparing it with back-propagation neural networks and case-based reasoning. The experimental results show that SVM provides a promising alternative to stock market prediction.

• Korean Journal of Artificial Intelligence
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• v.7 no.1
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• pp.23-59
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• 2019

The purpose of this study is to develop a measure of service quality in the traditional market by examining previous research on the service quality of the traditional market studied so far. After defining basic concepts through definition of traditional market and existing studies, 5 categories of configuration items for SERVQUAL measurement in traditional market were made up based on existing researches related to definition of service quality and service quality of traditional market. A survey was conducted on the items that fit the intention of this study and various statistical analyzes were conducted. Statistical analysis was performed using SPSS 22.0 and AMOS 22.0. The reliability of the items was measured by the reliability test, and the predictability and accuracy of the items were examined. The validity of the measured variables was verified through confirmatory factor analysis. Reliability, empathy, responsiveness, certainty, and tangibility were the most important factors in this study. Responsiveness factors include communication, time reduction, real time, promptness. Assurance factors include the assurance of delivery, prompt answers, product knowledge items. Tangibility factors include, convenient device systems, location information, presence as a fact, and as a result, the latest modern items are adopted. The quality of service in the traditional market developed in this study was found to be good in reliability and validity test. Confirmatory factor analysis result using structural equation model also met the conformity index standard. If service satisfaction is measured based on this research, basic data can be presented to policy makers who implement policies on traditional markets to make the right decisions. In addition, it will be able to provide traditional market operators with operational strategy and marketing data. In the future, based on the traditional market service quality scale developed in this study, it is necessary to grasp the factors to be continuously managed to improve the service quality of the traditional market, user satisfaction, and intention to use.

• Asia pacific journal of information systems
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• v.15 no.4
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• pp.165-192
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• 2005

This study introduces how to estimate the monetary value of intellectual capital of a public research institute by incorporating a non-market valuation technique, the choice experiments(CE). CE is a survey-based environmental valuation technique that has increasingly been popular over the last decade. The members of institute E, a typical type of public research institutes in Korea, were surveyed, before the data were fit to the conditional logit and mixed logit models. The total value of the institute's intellectual capital was estimated at approximately W3,377 billion for the year 2003. The institute's human, structural and relational capitals that comprise the intellectual capital were estimated at W18.7 billion, W10.7 billion and W4.4 billion respectively, for each of the components' index values improving by 1%. The human capital was placed a higher value than the other two. The study also shows that CE is a flexible technique that enables the researcher to estimate the monetary value of the intellectual capital whatever the index values of the component capitals and to interpret model estimation results more in depth by incorporating the mixed logit, a state-of-the-art discrete choice model, than the conventional conditional logic.

• Journal of Distribution Science
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• v.14 no.12
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• pp.79-87
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• 2016

Purpose - Since 1990, the sudden stop in capital flows has caused the economic crisis. The purpose of this research is to suggest the policy measures to mitigate the risk of the sudden stop in capital flows. To this end, we examine the theoretical framework and analyze the case study for countries which are faced with the sudden stop. Also we examine the structural problems of the foreign exchange market in Korea and derive the policy implications to prevent the sudden stop. Research design, data, and methodology - The criteria of whether the sudden stop in capital flows occurs are based upon Calvo et al. (2008). In case the proxy variable for the balance of capital account decreases from the average by over twice standard deviation, we determine that the sudden stop occurs for that country. The sample period is from January 1990 to December 2008, as in Calvo (2014). The sample countries are 17 developed countries and 19 emerging market countries, which are different from those of the previous papers as Agosin and Huaita (2012), and Calvo (2014). When the exchange market pressure index(EMPI) is deviated from the average by over three times standard deviation, we determine that the foreign exchange market is unstable for that country. Results - We find that the characteristics of the sudden stop in capital flows are the bunching or contagion among countries, the rapid drop in real effective exchange rate, and the huge decrease in foreign exchange reserves. Many countries tried to increase foreign exchange reserves and regulate capital flows. Also the foreign exchange market in Korea are found to be the volatile exchange rate, the vulnerable external debt and careless management of the foreign exchange derivatives transaction risk. Conclusions - To lessen the risk in the sudden stop of capital flows, this research suggests the some useful policy measures. To enhance the foreign exchange and distribution market stability, we should improve the price mechanism of exchange rate, hold the appropriate level of foreign exchange reserves, prevent excessive inflows of foreign exchange and promote sound transactions of foreign exchange derivatives.

• Asian Journal of Innovation and Policy
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• v.12 no.3
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• pp.323-344
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• 2023

This study investigates the resilient structural characteristics of a region by assessing the impact of the financial crisis. Utilizing panel data at the prefecture level for metropolitan cities across pre-shock (2006-2008), shock (2009), and post-shock (2010-2019) periods, we calculated an employment resilience index by combining the resistance and recovery indices. The panel logit regression measures the influences of the region's industrial structure and external economic factors in response to the global financial crisis. The results revealed that the diversity index of industries contributed to the post-shock recovery bounce-back. Additionally, the presence of large firms and industrial clusters within the region positively contributed to economic resilience. The specialization and the proportion of manufacturing industries showed negative effects, suggesting that regions overly reliant on manufacturing-centered specialization might be vulnerable to external shocks. Furthermore, excessive capital outflows for market expansion were found to have a detrimental impact on regional economic recovery.

• Journal of Distribution Science
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• v.11 no.10
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• pp.73-79
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• 2013

Purpose - This study examines the impact of oil price volatility on economic activities in Korea. The new millennium has seen a deregulation in the crude oil market, which invited immense capital inflow into Korea. It has also raised oil price levels and volatility. Drawing on the recent theoretical literature that emphasizes the role of volatility, this paper attends to the asymmetric changes in economic growth in response to the oil price movement. This study further examines several key macroeconomic variables, such as interest rate, production, and inflation. We come to the conclusion that oil price volatility can, in some part, explain the structural changes. Research design, data, and methodology - We use two methodological frameworks in this study. First, in regards to the oil price uncertainty, we use an Exponential-GARCH (Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity: EGARCH) model estimate to elucidate the asymmetric effect of oil price shock on the conditional oil price volatility. Second, along with the estimation of the conditional volatility by the EGARCH model, we use the estimates in a VECM (Vector Error Correction Model). The study thus examines the dynamic impacts of oil price volatility on industrial production, price levels, and monetary policy responses. We also approximate the monetary policy function by the yield of monetary stabilization bond. The data collected for the study ranges from 1990: M1 to 2013: M7. In the VECM analysis section, the time span is split into two sub-periods; one from 1990 to 1999, and another from 2000 to 2013, due to the U.S. CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) deregulation on the crude oil futures that became effective in 2000. This paper intends to probe the relationship between oil price uncertainty and macroeconomic variables since the structural change in the oil market became effective. Results and Conclusions - The dynamic impulse response functions obtained from the VECM show a prolonged dampening effect of oil price volatility shock on the industrial production across all sub-periods. We also find that inflation measured by CPI rises by one standard deviation shock in response to oil price uncertainty, and lasts for the ensuing period. In addition, the impulse response functions allude that South Korea practices an expansionary monetary policy in response to oil price shocks, which stems from oil price uncertainty. Moreover, a comparison of the results of the dynamic impulse response functions from the two sub-periods suggests that the dynamic relationships have strengthened since 2000. Specifically, the results are most drastic in terms of industrial production; the impact of oil price volatility shocks has more than doubled from the year 2000 onwards. These results again indicate that the relationships between crude oil price uncertainty and Korean macroeconomic activities have been strengthened since the year2000, which resulted in a structural change in the crude oil market due to the deregulation of the crude oil futures.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.24 no.2
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• pp.239-251
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• 2011

The need for statistical analysis to discern the existence and the type of international business comovement has increased as business and economic variations in one country is directly transmitted to business and financial market conditions in another without a long lag. This study performs the statistical tests for th locomotive hypothesis to understand the structural character of the long-run mechanism among Korea-US current and future business movements and the domestic stock market. The U.S. future business prospect, rather than the US current and the domestic current and future business conditions, appears to signi cantl a ect the domestic stock market movement.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.8 no.4
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• pp.113-124
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• 2021

The study investigates how financial markets respond to a shock to tone and semantic similarity of the Bank of Thailand press releases. The techniques in natural language processing are employed to quantify the tone and the semantic similarity of 69 press releases from 2010 to 2018. The corpus of the press releases is accessible to the general public. Stock market returns and bond yields are measured by logged return on SET50 and short-term and long-term government bonds, respectively. Data are daily from January 4, 2010, to August 8, 2019. The study uses the Structural Vector Auto Regressive model (SVAR) to analyze the effects of unanticipated and temporary shocks to the tone and the semantic similarity on bond yields and stock market returns. Impulse response functions are also constructed for the analysis. The results show that 1-month, 3-month, 6-month and 1-year bond yields significantly increase in response to a positive shock to the tone of press releases and 1-month, 3-month, 6-month, 1-year and 25-year bond yields significantly increase in response to a positive shock to the semantic similarity. Interestingly, stock market returns obtained from the SET50 index insignificantly respond to the shocks from the tone and the semantic similarity of the press releases.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.22 no.4
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• pp.19-43
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• 2016

This study examines the causes of the Asian exchange rate crisis and compares it to the European Monetary System crisis. In 1997, emerging countries in Asia experienced financial crises. Previously in 1992, currencies in the European Monetary System had undergone the same experience. This was followed by Mexico in 1994. The objective of this paper lies in the generation of useful insights from these crises. This research presents a comparison of South Korea, United Kingdom and Mexico, and then compares three different models for prediction. Previous studies of economic crisis focused largely on the manual construction of causal models using linear techniques. However, the weakness of such models stems from the prevalence of nonlinear factors in reality. This paper uses a structural equation model to analyze the causes, followed by a neural network model to circumvent the linear model's weaknesses. The models are examined in the context of predicting exchange rates In this paper, data were quarterly ones, and Consumer Price Index, Gross Domestic Product, Interest Rate, Stock Index, Current Account, Foreign Reserves were independent variables for the prediction. However, time periods of each country's data are different. Lisrel is an emerging method and as such requires a fresh approach to financial crisis prediction model design, along with the flexibility to accommodate unexpected change. This paper indicates the neural network model has the greater prediction performance in Korea, Mexico, and United Kingdom. However, in Korea, the multiple regression shows the better performance. In Mexico, the multiple regression is almost indifferent to the Lisrel. Although Lisrel doesn't show the significant performance, the refined model is expected to show the better result. The structural model in this paper should contain the psychological factor and other invisible areas in the future work. The reason of the low hit ratio is that the alternative model in this paper uses only the financial market data. Thus, we cannot consider the other important part. Korea's hit ratio is lower than that of United Kingdom. So, there must be the other construct that affects the financial market. So does Mexico. However, the United Kingdom's financial market is more influenced and explained by the financial factors than Korea and Mexico.