• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.30 no.2
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• pp.225-270
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• 2008

We analyze macroeconomic consequences of pay-as-you-go (PAYGO) public pension system with a simple overlapping generations model. Contrary to large body of existing literatures offering quantitative results based on simulation study, we take another route by adopting a highly simplified framework in search of qualitatively tractable analytical results. The main contribution of our results lies in providing a sound theoretical foundation that can be utilized in interpreting various quantitative results offered by simulation studies of large scale general equilibrium models. We present a simple overlapping generations model with a defined benefit(DB) PAYGO public pension system as a benchmark case and derive an analytical equilibrium solution utilizing graphical illustration. We also discuss the modifications of the benchmark model required to encompass a defined contribution(DC) public pension system into the basic framework. Comparative statics analysis provides three important implications; First, introduction and expansion of the PAYGO public pension, DB or DC, result in lower level of capital accumulation and higher expected rate of return on the risky asset. Second, it is shown that the progress of population aging is accompanied by lower capital stock due to decrease in both demand and supply of risky asset. Moreover, risk premium for risky asset increases(decreases) as the speed of population aging accelerates(decelerates) so that the possibility of so-called "the great meltdown" of asset market cannot be excluded although the odds are not high. Third, it is most likely that the switch from DB PAYGO to DC PAYGO would result in lower capital stock and higher expected return on the risky asset mainly due to the fact that the young generation regards DC PAYGO pension as another risky asset competing against the risky asset traded in the market. This theoretical prediction coincides with one of the firmly established propositions in empirical literature that the currently dominant form of public pension system has the tendency to crowd out private capital accumulation.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.24 no.4
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• pp.33-49
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• 2018

The impact of TV Drama success on TV Rating and the channel promotion effectiveness is very high. The cultural and business impact has been also demonstrated through the Korean Wave. Therefore, the early prediction of the blockbuster success of TV Drama is very important from the strategic perspective of the media industry. Previous studies have tried to predict the audience ratings and success of drama based on various methods. However, most of the studies have made simple predictions using intuitive methods such as the main actor and time zone. These studies have limitations in predicting. In this study, we propose a model for predicting the popularity of drama by analyzing the customer's viewing pattern based on various theories. This is not only a theoretical contribution but also has a contribution from the practical point of view that can be used in actual broadcasting companies. In this study, we collected data of 280 TV mini-series dramas, broadcasted over the terrestrial channels for 10 years from 2003 to 2012. From the data, we selected the most highly ranked and the least highly ranked 45 TV drama and analyzed the viewing patterns of them by 11-step. The various assumptions and conditions for modeling are based on existing studies, or by the opinions of actual broadcasters and by data mining techniques. Then, we developed a prediction model by measuring the viewing-time distance (difference) using Euclidean and Correlation method, which is termed in our study similarity (the sum of distance). Through the similarity measure, we predicted the success of dramas from the viewer's initial viewing-time pattern distribution using 1~5 episodes. In order to confirm that the model is shaken according to the measurement method, various distance measurement methods were applied and the model was checked for its dryness. And when the model was established, we could make a more predictive model using a grid search. Furthermore, we classified the viewers who had watched TV drama more than 70% of the total airtime as the "passionate viewer" when a new drama is broadcasted. Then we compared the drama's passionate viewer percentage the most highly ranked and the least highly ranked dramas. So that we can determine the possibility of blockbuster TV mini-series. We find that the initial viewing-time pattern is the key factor for the prediction of blockbuster dramas. From our model, block-buster dramas were correctly classified with the 75.47% accuracy with the initial viewing-time pattern analysis. This paper shows high prediction rate while suggesting audience rating method different from existing ones. Currently, broadcasters rely heavily on some famous actors called so-called star systems, so they are in more severe competition than ever due to rising production costs of broadcasting programs, long-term recession, aggressive investment in comprehensive programming channels and large corporations. Everyone is in a financially difficult situation. The basic revenue model of these broadcasters is advertising, and the execution of advertising is based on audience rating as a basic index. In the drama, there is uncertainty in the drama market that it is difficult to forecast the demand due to the nature of the commodity, while the drama market has a high financial contribution in the success of various contents of the broadcasting company. Therefore, to minimize the risk of failure. Thus, by analyzing the distribution of the first-time viewing time, it can be a practical help to establish a response strategy (organization/ marketing/story change, etc.) of the related company. Also, in this paper, we found that the behavior of the audience is crucial to the success of the program. In this paper, we define TV viewing as a measure of how enthusiastically watching TV is watched. We can predict the success of the program successfully by calculating the loyalty of the customer with the hot blood. This way of calculating loyalty can also be used to calculate loyalty to various platforms. It can also be used for marketing programs such as highlights, script previews, making movies, characters, games, and other marketing projects.

• Journal of Ginseng Culture
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• v.1
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• pp.93-109
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• 2019

This study aims to look at the process of ginseng being removed from the Western pharmacopoeia in the 19th century, experiencing a crisis as an export product in the America in the 20th century, and eventually settling in the U.S. society and the military as a dietary supplement in the 21th century. In this process, the legislation of provided a bridgehead for ginseng and other botanical dietary supplements to enter the U.S. market. As a result, ginseng could be re-listed in the U.S. pharmacopoeia as a dietary supplement. However, this did not mean a complete soft landing of ginseng and other botanical dietary supplements in the America. The U.S. medical community, which has been afraid of the indiscriminate spread of botanical dietary supplements, has constantly raised "the risk-discourse" and expressed concerns over the use and abuse of botanical dietary supplements that have not been scientifically verified. This involved not only the fundamental problems caused by the lax verification process of , but also a new atmosphere in the U.S. where the public sought information about botanical dietary supplements rather than seeking professional clinicians related to their health. Against this situation, "the advocate-discourse" suggested by dietary supplement manufacturers and the people in charge of botanical products seemed rather relaxed. As consumers are taking this side, the advocates had only to stress that botanical dietary supplements have been used worldwide for a long time without any problems and were made from 'natural' materials. The fact that ginseng and other botanical dietary supplements were able to advance to the U.S. Military's dietary supplement manual, which is strict in controlling food, seems to have jumped on the bandwagon of this atmosphere in the U.S. Society. In the early U.S. dietary supplement manual reviewed in this paper, ginseng was the most detailed among many botanical dietary supplements. Although there are some 'safety concerns' that still exist in the civilian society, but there are also certainly good scientific explanations for the efficacy and references to the popularity and influence of ginseng in the American society. Given this, the U.S. society and military's interest in ginseng as a dietary supplement seem quite high.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.28 no.4
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• pp.157-177
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• 2022

Investors are trading stocks by keeping a close watch on the order information submitted by domestic and foreign investors in real time through Limit Order Book information, so-called price current provided by securities firms. Will order information released in the Limit Order Book be useful in stock price prediction? This study analyzes whether it is significant as a predictor of future stock price up or down when order imbalances appear as investors' buying and selling orders are concentrated to one side during intra-day trading time. Using classification algorithms, this study improved the prediction accuracy of the order imbalance information on the short-term price up and down trend, that is the closing price up and down of the day. Day trading strategies are proposed using the predicted price trends of the classification algorithms and the trading performances are analyzed through empirical analysis. The 5-minute KOSPI200 Index Futures data were analyzed for 4,564 days from January 19, 2004 to June 30, 2022. The results of the empirical analysis are as follows. First, order imbalance information has a significant impact on the current stock prices. Second, the order imbalance information observed in the early morning has a significant forecasting power on the price trends from the early morning to the market closing time. Third, the Support Vector Machines algorithm showed the highest prediction accuracy on the day's closing price trends using the order imbalance information at 54.1%. Fourth, the order imbalance information measured at an early time of day had higher prediction accuracy than the order imbalance information measured at a later time of day. Fifth, the trading performances of the day trading strategies using the prediction results of the classification algorithms on the price up and down trends were higher than that of the benchmark trading strategy. Sixth, except for the K-Nearest Neighbor algorithm, all investment performances using the classification algorithms showed average higher total profits than that of the benchmark strategy. Seventh, the trading performances using the predictive results of the Logical Regression, Random Forest, Support Vector Machines, and XGBoost algorithms showed higher results than the benchmark strategy in the Sharpe Ratio, which evaluates both profitability and risk. This study has an academic difference from existing studies in that it documented the economic value of the total buy & sell order volume information among the Limit Order Book information. The empirical results of this study are also valuable to the market participants from a trading perspective. In future studies, it is necessary to improve the performance of the trading strategy using more accurate price prediction results by expanding to deep learning models which are actively being studied for predicting stock prices recently.

• Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety
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• v.35 no.3
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• pp.243-251
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• 2020

In this study, we investigated pesticide residues in 207 agricultural products distributed by direct trade in the northern area of Gyeonggi Province. A total of 94 general agricultural products and 113 eco-friendly agricultural products collected from local grocers and cooperative stores were analyzed by multiresidue method for 263 pesticides using GC (gas chromatography)/ECD (electron capture detector), GC/NPD (nitrogen phosphorus detector), GC-MS/MS (tandem mass spectrometry), LC (liquid chromatography)/PDA (photodiode array detector), LC/FLD (fluorescence detector), LC-MS/MS. All samples showing pesticide residues were general agricultural products collected from local food stores. The pesticide residue levels of 14 samples (6.8%) were below the maximum residue limits (MRLs) and one of them (0.5%) exceeded the MRLs. Sixteen pesticides were detected from samples of the following produce items: spinach, young cabbage, perilla leaves, mallow, cucumber, chives and water dropwort. The safety of the detected pesticides was assessed by monitoring the daily intake estimate (EDI) and the daily intake allowance (ADI) based on the amount of pesticides detected. The ADI percentage range (the ratio of EDI to ADI) was 0.0134-61.6259% and there was no health risk connected with consuming agricultural products in which pesticide residues were detected.

• The Korean Journal of Pesticide Science
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• v.10 no.1
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• pp.15-21
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• 2006

In order to monitor the pesticide residues in/on peppers and pepper powder and to assess their risk, pesticides in/on green pepper from 10 farmgates and fresh red pepper from 9 farmgates in Chungbuk area and pepper powder from 6 wholesale markets in Cheongju city were analyzed with a GLC and an HPLC. Also, pepper powder made by pulverization of the dried red pepper was analyzed to elucidate the change of pesticide residues in fresh red pepper by oven-drying. The number of pesticides detected from peen pepper, fresh red pepper, dried red pepper and pepper powder were 9, 12, 12, and 17, respectively, including 10 pesticides (one fungicide and nine insecticides) which were exceeded the maximum residue limits (MRLs). The exceeding rate of the MRL were higher in dried red pepper and pepper powder than in green pepper and fresh red pepper. Although some pesticides in peppers and pepper powder exceeded the MRLs, their estimated daily intake(EDI) were less than 1.6% of their acceptable daily intakes(ADIs), suggesting that it would be estimated to safe. By oven-drying of fresh red pepper at $65^{\circ}C$ for 72 hours, the weight of dried red pepper was from 1/5.9 from 1/7.8 of fresh red pepper, while the concentration of pesticide residue in dried red pepper increased from 1.7 to 8.2 times, suggesting that further reconsideration was required for the MRL of pepper powder.

• Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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• v.10 no.6
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• pp.1-13
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• 2015

There are various performance factors for SMEs in order to survive in the rapid changing market and it is discussing the importance of entrepreneurs' entrepreneurial orientation based on many researches. Thus, it is worth to analyze factors of seize new opportunity and firm's performance to build sustainable competitive advantages, which provide the directions to SMEs. This study investigates through exploratory research that the important factors of entrepreneurial orientation and the influence factors on firm's performance confirmed by empirical study. This study was conducted to explore the relationship between entrepreneurial orientation of SME CEO, learning orientation and corporate performance was verified following section. First, entrepreneurial orientation (pro-activeness, competitive aggressiveness, risk taking, innovativeness) was to examine the effect of learning orientation; Second, entrepreneurial orientation was to examine the impact on firm's performance; and in the last, validated learning orientation affect factors that are mediated between entrepreneurship orientation and firm's performance through empirical research. The results of this study, each SME have shown that they have a different impact on firm's performance based on a variety of entrepreneurial orientation. This result shows that the need for a separate independent study on entrepreneurial orientation of SMEs. In conclusion, this study implicates that entrepreneurial orientation is important role for firm's performance, entrepreneurs of SMEs are innovative rather than competitive aggressive, and risk taking activities positively affect firm's activity. The conclusions of this study would be utilized to develop the entrepreneurial orientation when necessary for entrepreneurs of SMEs.

• Journal of Korea Society of Industrial Information Systems
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• v.23 no.5
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• pp.119-134
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• 2018

Today, many firms face the environment of high uncertainty and severe competition due to the rapid technology development and the diverse needs of customers. In the business environment, one of the most important ways to gain sustainable competitive advantage and future growth engine is related to NPD (New Product Development), which is a very important issue for practice and academia. Thus, this study intends to provide new values to practitioners and researchers related to NPD by analyzing current research trends and future trends in NPD field. For this, we bibliometrically analyzed keyword networks which consist of keywords that were already published in the eminent journals from Scopus database to generate insights that have not been captured in the previous reviews on the topic. As a result, we could understand the extant research streams in NPD field, and suggest the changes of specific research topics based on the connected relationships among keywords over the time. In addition, we also foresaw the general future research trends in NPD field based on the keywords according to preferential attachment processes. Through this study, it was confirmed that NPD keyword network is a small world network that follows the distribution of power law and the growth of network is formed by link formation by keyword preferential attachment. In addition, through component analysis and centrality analysis, keywords such as Innovation, New product innovation, Risk management, Concurrent engineering, Research and development, and Product life cycle management are highly centralized in NPD keyword network. On the other hand, as a result of examining the change of preferential attachment of keywords over the time, we suggested the required new research direction including i) NPD collaboration with suppliers, ii) NPD considering market uncertainty, iii) NPD considering convergence with the other academic areas like technology management and knowledge management, iv) NPD from SME(Small and medium enterprises) perspective. The results of this study can be used to determine the research trends of NPD and the new research themes for interdisciplinary studies with other disciplines.

• Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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• v.100 no.4
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• pp.630-638
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• 2011

This study aims to verify the economic validity of the REDD project in North Korea by estimating the potential carbon credits and the cost of REDD project. The REDD potential credits of North Korea are estimated based on the international statistics of forest area and population from 1990 to 2010, and the cost of REDD project is estimated indirectly by annual land opportunity cost of agriculture assuming that South Korea will aid the food production per area in North Korea. When the 25% reduction scenario was applied to the annual deforestation rate in North Korea, the potential REDD credits were estimated to be $4,232million{\sim}5,290milliontCO_2eq.$ for 20 years. It would account for 28~35% of South Korea's national medium-term greenhouse gas reduction target. On the other hand, the break-even price of REDD project was calculated as the profit of agriculture in the land available by forest conversion in North Korea. It was estimated to be 19.19$/$tCO_2eq.$ when the non-permanence risk of forest conserved through a REDD contract is assumed to be 20%. This price is higher than the price of REDD carbon credit 5$/$tCO_2eq.$ dealt in the 2010 voluntary carbon market, leading to no economic feasibility. However, REDD project provides co-benefits besides climate mitigation. As previous studies indicate, the break-even price is lower than 20$/$tCO_2eq.$, which is the social marginal cost of greenhouse gas emissions by loss of forest. Therefore REDD in North Korea can be justified against the social benefits. The economic feasibility of REDD project in North Korea can be largely influenced by the risk percentage. Thus, North Korean REDD project needs a strong guarantee and involvement by the government and people of North Korea to assure the project's economic feasibility.

• Journal of Communication Design
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• v.68
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• pp.278-288
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• 2019

The purpose of this study is to analyze the effects of risk and convenience on purchase intention in the IOT market, and I want to analyze the moderating effect of emotional consumption value. In this study, two products were selected from three product groups. There are three major methods of research. First, theoretical considerations. Second, survey analysis. Reliability analysis and factor analysis were performed using descriptive statistics using SPSS. Third, we measured changes of EEG according to in - depth interview and indirect experience. As a result of the hypothesis of this study, it was confirmed that convenience of use of IoT product influences purchase intention. Risk was predicted to have a negative effect on purchase intentions, but not significant in this study. This implies that IoT products tend to be neglected in terms of monetary loss such as cost of purchase, cost of use, and disposal cost when purchasing. In-depth interviews and EEG analysis revealed that there is a desire to purchase and try out the IoT product due to the nature of the product, the novelty of new technology, and the vague idea that it will benefit my life. The aesthetic, symbolic, and pleasure factors, which are sub - elements of emotional consumption value, were found to have a great influence. This is consistent with previous research showing that emotional consumption value has a positive effect on purchase intention. In-depth interviews and EEG analyzes also yielded the same results. This study has revealed that emotional consumption value affects the intention to purchase IoT products. It seems that companies producing IoT products need to concentrate on marketing with more emotional consumption value.