• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제3권3호
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• pp.57-65
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• 2016

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the volatility of both Islamic and conventional stock market in Indonesia with the aim of identifying the most appropriate model for risk management practice. The study considers GARCH as a genre of model to measure the volatility of stock market movement. The results support the view that each model shows specific volatility from both Islamic and conventional stock market in Indonesia. In Islamic stock market, volatility is affected by exchange rate and money supply (M1) but not interest rate as interest is prohibited in Islam. However, interest rate is found as a principal factor that affects volatility of conventional stock market. The outcomes of this paper are of particular significance to policy makers, as it provides guidelines to maintain economic health. Furthermore, the findings may assist practitioners to understand the consequences of macroeconomic factors such as exchange rate, money supply and interest rate, which are very crucial for the market stability of Indonesian stock market. The paper enhances the understanding of stock market volatility and proposes guidelines risk management practices.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제1권1호
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• pp.15-21
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• 2014

This study investigates extensively the integration of various segments of financial markets (i.e. money market, lending and deposit market, exchange rate market, and capital market) both domestically and internationally. Cointegration approach is employed in the study to find out long term relationship among the variables. Data are on a monthly interval for the period spreads over 2001 to 2010. The results show no evidence of cointegration between money market and exchange rate market and between capital market and exchange rate market of Pakistan. On the other hand, international financial markets integration is also investigated and the findings revealed that domestic money market rates of Pakistan and USA are not cointegrated. Whereas, an evidence of cointegration between capital markets of Pakistan and USA is found in this study.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• 제39권4호
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• pp.69-94
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• 2017

This paper re-examines the impacts an institutional arrangement may have on labour market outcomes such as the employment and unemployment rates. Based on the results from a generalized econometric model, the generosity of unemployment insurance benefits, organized labour and active labour market policy have effects on a labour market in line with previous findings. However, taxes on labour and the degree of employment protection are found to affect neither the employment rate nor the unemployment rate. Thus, some findings in this paper validate earlier findings, whereas others do not.

• 대한가정학회지
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• 제49권8호
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• pp.37-46
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• 2011

Using the 1987-2008 quarterly aggregated data of the Household Income and Expenditure Survey, this study investigated the factors influencing household saving rate. The independent variables in the AR regression model were the GDP growth rate, shares of the total household expenditure allocated to tax & social insurance, and education, the variables reflecting the conditions of the asset market including interest rate, stock market index, and real estate price index, and the variables representing the social economic conditions including the index of aging and income inequality. Among the independent variables interest rate, stock market index, and income inequality were found to be significantly associated with the household saving rate. These results suggested that the redistribution and financial market policies favorable to savers may be effective for raising the household saving rate.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제8권1호
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• pp.1-6
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• 2021

This research examines the stock market index determinants and the prediction using the FFT curve fitting of the Jakarta Stock Exchange (JKSE) Composite Index during the COVID-19 pandemic. This paper has used daily data of Jakarta Stock Exchange (JKSE) Composite Index, interest rate, and exchange rate from 15 October 2019 to 15 September 2020, and a total of 224 observations, retrieved from Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX), Indonesia Statistics Central Bureau and Observation & Research of Taxation. The study covers descriptive statistics, multicollinearity test, hypothesis tests, determination test, and prediction using FFT curve fitting. The results unveil four fresh and robust evidence. Partially, the interest rate has affected positively and significantly the stock market index. Partially, the exchange rate has affected negatively and significantly the stock market index. The F-test result, interest rate, and exchange rate have significantly affected the stock market index (JKSE) simultaneously. Furthermore, the FFT curve fitting has predicted that the stock market fluctuates and increases over time. The results have shown a strong influence of the independent variables and the dependent variable. The value of Adjusted R-Square is 0.719, which means that the independent variables have simultaneously impacted the dependent variable for 71.9%; other factors have influenced the remaining 28.1%.

• 국제지역연구
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• 제13권1호
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• pp.103-122
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• 2009

본 연구는 예상환율변화율, 예상인플레이션 차이, 및 이자율 차이를 활용하여 한국의 외환시장, 실물시장, 및 화폐시장 간의 상호관계를 분석하였으며, 계량경제기법으로는 합리적 기대가설과 GARCH-M 모형을 적용하였다. 또한, 국제 Fisher 효과를 분석하여 국내외의 실질이자율이 국가간 자본유출입에 미치는 영향도 분석하였다. 분석결과에 의하면 한국의 경우 외환시장의 효율성을 실물시장 및 화폐시장간의 유기적인 관계로 이해하기에는 한계가 있지만 외환시장에서 결정되는 환율은 국가간 실질이자율의 충격에 영향을 받는 것으로 판명되었다. 따라서 외환시장의 안정성을 확보하기 위해서는 국가간 실질이자율의 차이를 안정적으로 유지하는 정책을 수행하여야 할 것이다.

• 재무관리논총
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• 제3권1호
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• pp.179-211
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• 1996

This study examines whether trading mechanisms or market microstructures of markets have an effect on the integration issue of the international equity market. If the international equity market is integrated, identical stocks listed on different international stock exchanges should have the same rates of return, the same characteristics of stock price behavior and similar distributions of return. If different market microstructures, or trading mechanisms cause differences in characteristics of stock price behavior, those can lead to different rates of return because of different liquidity risk for the same stocks between markets. This study proposes international asset pricing with liquidity risk related to trading mechanisms. Systematic risk by itself cannot predict the sign of expected rate of return difference for the same stocks between international markets. Liquidity risk factors related to market microstructure provide explanations for the sign of rate of return differences between markets, However, liquidity risk factors related to market microstructure do not have a significant effect on the rate of return differences and sensitivity of return differences between markets, Trading mechanisms or market microstructures might not have a significant effect on the interpretation of the international equity market integration studies, if trading volume or other factors are controlled.

• 지식경영연구
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• 제22권4호
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• pp.71-85
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• 2021

본 연구는 채권시장과 금리시장의 지표를 이용한 외환시장 환율예측 모델을 만드는데 있어 어떤 인공지능 방법론이 가장 적합한지 밝혀내는데 그 목적이 있다. 채권시장의 대표 상품인 국고채와 통안채는 위험회피 상황이 올 때 대규모로 매도되어지고 그런 경우 환율이 상승하는 모습을 자주 보여주었고, 금리시장에서 통화 스왑 (Cross Currency Swap) 가격은 달러 유동성 문제가 생길 때 주로 하락하였으며, 그 움직임은 환율의 상승에 직간접적인 영향을 미쳐온 점 등을 고려하면, 채권시장과 금리시장에서 거래되는 상품의 가격과 움직임은 외환시장에도 직간접적인 영향을 주고 있으며, 세 시장 사이엔 상호 유기적이고 보완적인 관계가 있다고 볼 수 있다. 지금까지 채권시장, 금리시장, 그리고 외환시장 사이의 관계와 연관성을 밝히는 연구는 있어왔으나, 과거 많은 환율예측 연구들이 주로 GDP, 경상수지 흑자/적자, 인플레이션 등 거시적인 지표를 기반으로 한 연구에 집중되어 왔으며, 채권시장과 금리시장 지표를 기반으로 인공지능을 활용하여 외환시장의 환율을 예측하는 적극적인 연구는 아직 진행되지 않았다. 본 연구는 채권시장 지표와 금리시장 지표를 기반으로, 비선형데이터 분석에 적합한 인공신경망(Artificial Neural Network) 모델과, 선형데이터 분석에 적합한 로지스틱 회귀분석 (Logistic regression), 그리고 비선형/선형데이터 분석에 활용 가능한 의사결정나무 (Decision Tree)를 각각 사용하여 환율예측 모델을 만들고 그 수익률을 비교하여 어떤 모델이 가장 외환시장 환율 예측을 하는데 적합한지 알려준다. 또한, 본 연구는 주식시장, 금리시장, 오일시장, 그리고 외환시장 환율 등 비선형적 시계열 데이터 분석에 많이 사용되어진 인공신경망 모델이 채권시장과 금리시장 지표를 기반으로 한 외환시장 환율예측 모델에 가장 적합한 방법론을 제공하고 있다는 것을 증명한다. 채권시장, 금리시장, 그리고 외환시장 간의 단순한 연관성을 밝히는 것을 넘어, 세 시장 간의 거래 신호를 포착하여 적극적인 상관관계를 밝히고 상호 유기적인 움직임을 증명하는 것은 단순히 외환시장 트레이더 들에게 새로운 트레이딩 모델을 제시하는 것뿐만 아니라 금융시장 전체의 효율성을 증가시키는데 기여할 것이라 기대한다.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제7권8호
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• pp.41-49
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• 2020

This study investigates the short-run and long-run causal behavior of the Philippine stock market index volatility under vector error correction environment. The variables were tested first for stationarity and then long-run equilibrium relationship. Moreover, an impulse response function was estimated to examine the extent of innovations in the independent variables in explaining the Philippine stock market index volatility. The results reveal that the volatility of the Philippine stock market index exhibit long-run equilibrium relationship with Peso-Dollar exchange rate, London Interbank Offered Rate, and crude oil prices. The short-run dynamics-based VECM estimates indicate that in the short-run, increases (i.e., depreciation) in Peso-Dollar exchange rate cause PSEI volatility to increase. As for the London Interbank Offered Rate, it causes increases in PSEI volatility in the short-run. The adjustment coefficients used with the long-run dynamics validates the presence of unidirectional causal long-run relationship from Peso-Dollar exchange rate, London Interbank Offered Rate, and crude oil prices to PSEI volatility, and bidirectional causal long-run relationship between PSEI volatility and London Interbank Offered Rate. The impulse response functions developed within the VECM framework demonstrate the positive and negative reactions of PSEI volatility to unanticipated Peso-Dollar exchange rate, London Interbank Offered Rate, and crude oil price shocks.

• 수산경영론집
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• 제40권1호
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• pp.27-49
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• 2009

Recently, the Korea's economy concerns the second money crisis because of the rapid increase of the exchange rate. The Korea's economy which is very dependent on the foreign trade is more sensitive to the change of exchange rates. There are many literatures which analyze the effects of variations of the exchange rates on the secondary and tertiary industries such as the manufacturing industry and IT(Information Technology). But there have been no studies which try to figure out the effects of variations of exchange rate on the primary industries, especially, fisheries' industry. Therefore this paper tries to analyze the effect of price competition structure and the change of exchange rate on foreign fisheries exporting prices in Korea's fisheries import market. This study utilizes OLS(Ordinary Least Squares Analysis) for the analysis in the market of frozen yellow corvina, hairtail, angler fish which are major fisheries importable in Korea. The results show that the exporting country which has the highest market share is more sensitive to the change of the exchange rates itself than that of the other exporting countries' price when it starts to set up its exporting price. And the exporting countries which have low market share are more sensitive to the change of price which country has the highest market share than that of price whose countries have low market share and those of their exchange rate. Also we can find out that the countries which have similar market share try to set up price-setting strategy in the opposite direction. In other words, one country tries to bid up its price, other countries response to rival country by lowering their prices. In the consideration of the fact that most exporting countries aren't affected by Korea's fisheries' prices, the exporting countries in Korea's fisheries import market are more sensitive to the prices of other exporting countries than that of Korea's. This result indicates that the price leader-follower model could be applicable to the Korea's fisheries import market.