• Title/Summary/Keyword: market price

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A Day-Ahead System Marginal Price Forecasting Using ARIMA Model (자기회귀누적이동평균 모형을 이용한 전일 계통한계가격 예측)

  • Kim, Dae-Yong;Lee, Chan-Joo;Lee, Myung-Hwan;Park, Jong-Bae;Shin, Joong-Rin
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 2005.07a
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    • pp.819-821
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    • 2005
  • Since the System Marginal Price (SMP) is a vital factor to the market entities who intend to maximize the their profit, the short-term marginal price forecasting should be performed correctly. In a electricity market, the short-term trading between the market entities can be generally affected a short-term market price. Therefore, the exact forecasting of SMP can influence on the profit of market participants. This paper presents a methodology of day-ahead SMP foretasting using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA). To show the efficiency and effectiveness of the proposed method, the numerical studies have been performed using historical data of SMP in 2004.

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How to Use Standard Market Prices for Ordinary Management System of Construction Equipment Prices in Poom-Saem (시가표준액을 활용한 건설공사표준품셈 건설기계가격 상시관리 방안)

  • Ahn, Bang-Ryul;Huh, Youngki;Kim, Dae Young;Tae, Yong-Ho
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Building Construction Conference
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    • 2014.11a
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    • pp.98-99
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    • 2014
  • Construction equipment cost is critical to estimate the total construction costs, particularly in large and complicated projects. Despite its importance, the construction equipment cost may not reflect the current market value since the equipment database is being updated every 6 years at most. To keep construction equipment cost up to date, it is highly recommended to use the standard market price that is reported each year by the Ministry of Security and Public Administration (MOSPA). However, there is still a gap to adopt the standard market price system for the construction equipment cost computing system. Therefore, this paper suggests an effective way to develop a construction equipment cost estimation system.

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Dynamic Effects of Capacity Mechanisms of Electricity Market on the Market Performances (전력시장의 용량 메커니즘이 전력시장 성과에 미치는 동태적 효과)

  • Jang, Dae-Chul;Park, Kyung-Bae
    • Korean System Dynamics Review
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    • v.12 no.4
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    • pp.93-124
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    • 2011
  • The introduction of competition in the generation of electricity has raised the fundamental question of whether markets provide the right incentives for the provision of the capacity needed to maintain system reliability. Capacity mechanisms are adopted around the world to guarantee appropriate level of investment in electricity generation capacity. In this study, we discuss these approaches and analyze the capacity pricing mechanisms from the adequacy perspective. We conclude that the design of capacity mechanism is very important to decrease electricity spot price and increase total electric capacity. Specifically, the constant of capacity pricing mechanism made a difference to the performance of electricity market. However, the slope of capacity price mechanism is better than the constant of that in improving performance of electricity market.

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In Search of an Efficient Market Mechanism for a Digital Economy: Virtual Field Experiments on Posted-price Markets and Auctions (디지털 경제에서의 효율적 시장 메커니즘에 대한 연구: 가격부착 시장과 경매에 대한 가상 실험)

  • Beomsoo Kim
    • The Journal of Society for e-Business Studies
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    • v.5 no.1
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    • pp.135-158
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    • 2000
  • In recent years, many retail businesses jumped on the Internet auction bandwagon and paid substantially high fees to learn and develop proper business strategies for this new environment. Unlike what most businesses in the real world presume, this research shows that discriminatory-price ascending-bid auctions in a digital economy might be not very beneficial for the sellers on the Internet, if sellers sell the identical digital products through both a typical posted-price market and an auction. Using an extensive technology infrastructure along with suitable incentives and rules for market agents, we found that a discriminatory-price ascending-bid auction, which is the most popular auction mechanism on the Internet, serves consumers better than it does the sellers or producers in the digital economy. That is, the average prices for digital goods in these auctions are substantially lower than the prices in a posted-price market. This shows that it is not so wise for sellers to jump on the bandwagon of Internet auctions, if there is a market place with posted-price mechanisms which sells comparable items, or if a seller does not have special advantages or strategies in this new market institution. Electronic market mechanisms provide powerful means of understanding and measuring consumer characteristics including willingness-to-pay and other demographics for sellers or producers. Many concern that sellers may extract the entire surplus from the market by using customization on the Internet, thus consumers will be worse off in this digital economy. We found that these sellers who can customize their products and prices fail to capture the whole consumers surplus and cannot exercise a monopoly. One major explanation for this phenomenon is that the competition among the sellers prohibits them from charging prices according to customers demand for each product, where switching from one seller to another is not so difficult for the customers, and reselling products among the buyers are prohibited.

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A Proposed Method for Estimating Demand function of Cournot Model in Electricity Market (전력시장에서의 쿠르노 수요함수 추정)

  • Kang, Dong-Joo;Hur, Jin;Oh, Tae-Kyoo;Chung, Koo-Hyung;Kim, Bal-Ho H.
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 2005.11b
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    • pp.168-170
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    • 2005
  • At present Cournot model is one of the most commonly used theories to analyze the gaming situation in oligopoly market. But there exist several problems to apply this model to electricity market. The representative one is to obtain the inverse demand curve able to be induced from the relationship between market price and demand response. In Cournot model, each player offers their generation quantity to accomplish maximum profit, which is accomplished by reducing their quantity compared with available total capacity. As stated above, to obtain the probable Cournot equilibrium to reflect real market situation, we have to induce the correct demand function first of all. Usually the correlation between price and demand appears on the long-term basis through the statistical data analysis (for example, regression analysis) or by investigating consumer utility functions of several consumer groups classified as residential, industrial, and commercial. However, the elasticity has a tendency to change continuously according to the total market demand size or the level of market price. Therefore it should be updated as trading period passes by. In this paper we propose a method for inducing and updating this price elasticity of demand function for more realistic market equilibrium

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Determinants of the Consumer's Search for Information -Focusing on durables Goods Purchases by American Consumers- (소비자 정보탐색의 결정요인-미국소비자들의 내구재구매행동을 중심으로-)

  • 여정성
    • Journal of Families and Better Life
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    • v.7 no.1
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    • pp.15-25
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    • 1989
  • The purpose of this study is to examine the factors affecting the consumer's search for information and the relationship between the amount of search and the final price paid. The model indicates the demand for search is affected by the market price of each durable good purchased, the tim available for search, family income, direct cost of search, the initial stock of information, effectiveness of search, and shopping attitudes. The final price savings are a function of search, price of dispersion in the market, the initial stock of information, and effectiveness of search. Data from the Pane Study on Consumer Decisions and Asset Management were used for the empirical testing of the theoretical model. The amount of information search as dependent variable is represented by two different measures, the level of discussion with others and the number of stores visited. The amount of discussion with others depends mainly on the respondent's shopping attitude. The higher the wife's desire to search, the higher the degree of husband's comparison shopping, the less the husband's perception of price-quality relationship, the higher the level of discussions with others. The number of stores visited depends on the average market price of product purchased and the level of family income. The higher the average market price and he higher the level of family income, the greater the number of stores visited. The final savings depend upon the level of information search. The greater the number of store visited, but the less the purchase is discussed with stores, the higher the final savings are.

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Dual Capacity Price Mechanism to Provide Stable Remuneration for Generation Capacity (전력도매시장에서의 안정적 발전용량 보상을 위한 이원적 용량가격 제도 도입 방안)

  • Kim, Yung San
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.113-140
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    • 2016
  • Achieving the two goals of providing stable remuneration and promoting market based incentive for generation capacity with only one kind of capacity price is a difficult proposition. This paper suggests a market design in which two different kinds of capacity prices are used to achieve these goals. It maintains the current capacity price that is determined administratively based on the fixed cost of the gas-turbine generator. A second capacity price is added that covers generators with higher fixed costs and lower fuel costs such as combined-cycle gas turbine, coal-powered, and nuclear generators. This second capacity price is conditional on a lower energy price ceiling and determined by the interaction of the market supply and a demand schedule derived from the optimal fuel mixed principle.

Market Structure and Pricing Behavior in the Korean Transportation Fuel Market (국내 수송용 석유제품 시장의 시장구조와 가격행태)

  • Moon, Choon-Geol
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.311-342
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    • 2015
  • We evaluate two main rationales of massive policy intervention of Lee Administration in the Korean transportation fuel market: high market share of domestic refineries, perceived by the Administration as the result of high market concentration, and asymmetry in price adjustment, perceived as the result of collusion. Domestic refineries, huge in capacity and located at seaports, maintain international competitiveness in price. Considering market openness offering preferential treatment to importers, they set domestic prices competitively on the basis of MOPS prices. Yet, the price competitiveness of domestic refineries is so high that they are able to sustain high market share. We confirm that the Korean before-tax consumer prices of gasoline and diesel are lower than Japan's and the weighted averages of 27 EU countries by as much as 159KRW and 21KRW per liter in the case of gasoline and 170KRW and 63KRW in the case of diesel. Price asymmetry is caused by diverse economic and managerial reasons and, as FTC (2005) states, price asymmetry does not immediately imply exercise of market power or collusion. We analyzed price asymmetry in Korea, Japan and 14 EU countries, and found asymmetry in Korea and 11 EU countries in the case of gasoline and in Korea and 8 EU countries in the case of diesel.

The Price of Risk in the Korean Stock Distribution Market after the Global Financial Crisis (글로벌 금융위기 이후 한국 주식유통시장의 위험가격에 관한 연구)

  • Sohn, Kyoung-Woo;Liu, Won-Suk
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.13 no.5
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    • pp.71-82
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    • 2015
  • Purpose - The purpose of this study is to investigate risk price implied from the pricing kernel of Korean stock distribution market. Recently, it is considered that the quantitative easing programs of major developed countries are contributing to a reduction in global uncertainty caused by the 2007~2009 financial crisis. If true, the risk premium as compensation for global systemic risk or economic uncertainty should show a decrease. We examine whether the risk price in the Korean stock distribution market has declined in recent years, and attempt to provide practical implications for investors to manage their portfolios more efficiently, as well as academic implications. Research design, data and methodology - To estimate the risk price, we adopt a non-parametric method; the minimum norm pricing kernel method under the LOP (Law of One Price) constraint. For the estimation, we use 17 industry sorted portfolios provided by the KRX (Korea Exchange). Additionally, the monthly returns of the 17 industry sorted portfolios, from July 2000 to June 2014, are utilized as data samples. We set 120 months (10 years) as the estimation window, and estimate the risk prices from July 2010 to June 2014 by month. Moreover, we analyze correlation between any of the two industry portfolios within the 17 industry portfolios to suggest further economic implications of the risk price we estimate. Results - According to our results, the risk price in the Korean stock distribution market shows a decline over the period of July 2010 to June 2014 with statistical significance. During the period of the declining risk price, the average correlation level between any of the two industry portfolios also shows a decrease, whereas the standard deviation of the average correlation shows an increase. The results imply that the amount of systematic risk in the Korea stock distribution market has decreased, whereas the amount of industry-specific risk has increased. It is one of the well known empirical results that correlation and uncertainty are positively correlated, therefore, the declining correlation may be the result of decreased global economic uncertainty. Meanwhile, less asset correlation enables investors to build portfolios with less systematic risk, therefore the investors require lower risk premiums for the efficient portfolio, resulting in the declining risk price. Conclusions - Our results may provide evidence of reduction in global systemic risk or economic uncertainty in the Korean stock distribution market. However, to defend the argument, further analysis should be done. For instance, the change of global uncertainty could be measured with funding costs in the global money market; subsequently, the relation between global uncertainty and the price of risk might be directly observable. In addition, as time goes by, observations of the risk price could be extended, enabling us to confirm the relation between the global uncertainty and the effect of quantitative easing. These topics are beyond our scope here, therefore we reserve them for future research.

Environmental Regulations and Measurement of Market Power in a Depletable Resource Industry (환경규제를 고려한 고갈성 자원산업의 시장지배력 측정)

  • Lee, Myunghun
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.745-766
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    • 2009
  • It is not valid to measure the degree of market power based on the markup of price over marginal market cost in an industry for which the market price of some inputs is not available because those inputs are then excluded in estimating the dual total cost function. If the roles of those inputs are ignored, the markup of price over marginal market cost is likely to be positive in the perfectly competitive industry. In order to have accurate market power markups for the environmentally regulated Korean iron and steel industry, in which the market price of raw material and the price of abatement capital are hard to obtain, in this paper, a dual cost function is derived given the optimal quantities of raw material and abatement capital, and then estimated jointly with the supply relation. The annual average degree of market power for the industry is estimated to be 0.49 over the period 1982~2001. Ignoring environmental regulation would overstate the degree of market power by about 8 percent.

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