• Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
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• v.14 no.spc
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• pp.1232-1255
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• 2011

This paper proposes a model for demand forecasting that will require less effort in the process of utilizing the new product diffusion model while also allowing for more objective and timely application. Drawing upon the theoretical foundation provided by the hype cycle model and the consumer adoption model, this proposed model makes it possible to estimate the maximum market potential based solely on bibliometrics and the scale of the early market, thereby presenting a method for supplying the major parameters required for the Bass model. Upon analyzing the forecasting ability of this model by applying it to the case of the hybrid car market, the model was confirmed to be capable of successfully forecasting results similar in scale to the market potential deduced through various other objective sources of information, thus underscoring the potentials of utilizing this model. Moreover, even the hype cycle or the life cycle can be estimated through direct linkage with bibliometrics and the Bass model. In cases where the hype cycles of other models have been observed, the forecasting ability of this model was demonstrated through simple case studies. Since this proposed model yields a maximum market potential that can also be applied directly to other growth curve models, the model presented in the following paper provides new directions in the endeavor to forecast technology diffusion and identify promising technologies through bibliometrics.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.39 no.3
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• pp.43-62
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• 2017

This paper proposes an integrated risk-management framework that includes 1) measuring the risk of credit portfolios, 2) implementing a (macro) stress test, and 3) setting risk limits using the estimated systematic latent factor specific to capture the housing market cycle. To this end, we extract information from a set of real-estate market variables based on the FAVAR methodology proposed by Bernanke, Boivin and Eliasz (2005). Then, we show the method by which the estimated systematic factor is applied to risk management in the housing market in an integrated manner within the Vasicek one-factor credit model. The proposed methodology is well fitted to analyze the risk of slow-moving and low-defaultable forms of capital, such as alternative investments.

• Asia pacific journal of information systems
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• v.11 no.3
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• pp.63-89
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• 2001

The purpose of this research is to develop strategic alternatives for the high-tech products development by comparatively studying characteristics of the industry and R&D structures in Korea and the US. Some of the environmental, strategic, organizational and project teams' characteristics are studied. Data were collected from Korea and US high-tech companies through interviews and questionnaires and event analysis method was used to analyze them. The findings are as follows: First, when the level of market concentration is high, cycle time tends to be longer. Therefore, if there are many competitors in the market, new products development should be swift due to competitive pressures. Second, the developmental strategy should be directed toward the existing customers to speed up new products development. That is, a defensive strategy would result in a shorter cycle time and response time compared to a strategy directed to a niche market. Third, when the level of formalization is high, cycle time tends to be shorter. This means that formal procedures for new products idea development or new products development policies shorten new products development time.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• v.25 no.2
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• pp.125-150
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• 2021

The paper investigates investor sentiment's role in boosting Japanese companies to enhance their environmental, social, and corporate governance (ESG) performance. Using ESG scores of 367 firms between 2005 and 2019 from the ASSET4 database, we find that negative sentiment in the previous year, both firm and market level, can be a stimulation for the company's commitments to its ESG activities next year. Notably, the moderating effect of the business sector and economic cycle on the sentiment-ESG inference are detected in our study differentiating between corporate and market sentiment, which have never been reported before. In detail, we discover that the impact of firm-specific sentiment is less pronounced for high-sensitive ESG firms. On the other hand, the driving force of market sentiment on corporate social behaviors weakens when economic recessions happen. Our results are robust after controlling for potential endogeneity issues and using alternative proxies for market sentiment.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.7 no.3
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• pp.127-135
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• 2020

The paper aims to examine whether business cycles affect the link between financial development and bank risk, measured by Zscore and non-performing loans to total loans in six Southeast Asian countries, namely Indonesia, Philippines, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam. This study uses a sample of 95 listed commercial banks over a 15-year period between 2004 and 2018 in the six Southeast Asian countries. This study employs panel OLS regression and modifications to tackle issues such as endogeneity and heteroscedasticity. The results show that the impact of stock market development (the ratio of the market capitalization to GDP) on Zscore is significantly positive, whereas its effect on non-performing loans is significantly negative. The findings suggest that financial development, in terms of stock market capitalization, improves banks' Zscores and reduces their level of non-performing loans, suggesting that financial development on average reduces bank risk. The impact of business cycle is insignificant towards bank risk, thus rejecting both counter- and pro-cyclical hypotheses, except for the case of risk indicator of loan loss provisions. Examining the joint effect of the business cycle and financial development on bank risk, we find that the phase of business cycles generally does not moderate the link between financial development and bank risk.

• The Journal of Society for e-Business Studies
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• v.24 no.2
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• pp.199-216
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• 2019

The public SW market is 3 trillion won, which is less than 10% of the total SW market. However, due to the nature of the domestic market, it is an important market with a relatively large impact on small and medium-sized software companies. In this market, government is operating the Public SW Project Demand Forecasting System in order to support the marketing activities of small and medium sized SW companies and establish a fair market order. The current system has limitations such as lack of user convenience, insufficient analysis capability and less business connection. This study was conducted to identify the problems of these systems and to propose a new system for improving the convenience of users and expanding the information utilization of SMEs. To this end, we analyzed the requirements of each stakeholder. We proposed the 2-phased forecasting cycle, the management cycle, and the system life cycle of public SW projects and created a unified identifier (UID) so that the information of those projects can be identified and linked among them. As a result, an integrated reference model of project information management based on system life cycle was developed, which can explain the demand forecasting and project information, and the improved processes was also designed to implement them. Through the result of this study, it is expected that integrated management of public SW projects will be possible.

• Survey Research
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• v.7 no.1
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• pp.55-84
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• 2006

This study has classified development stages (Embryonic-Growth-Maturity) of mobile telecommunication industry based on Industry Life Cycle theory. There are two steps to be analyzed in this study, In the first step, cluster was investigated through cluster analysis using mobile density to categorize development stages of mobile telecommunication industry. In the second step, we compared on indexes of market structure, market efficiency and market performance to find out characteristics of each stage of development. The results are as follows. First, HHI is higher at embryonic stage than at growth and maturity stages, Second, ARPU(Average Revenue Per User) and RPM(Revenue Per Minute) are getting higher as the stages move on. Third, EBITDA margins, an index of market performance, is decreasing along the three stages. Finally, this study presents a clue to define the stage of development of mobile telecommunication industry and build a proper strategy for the market change.

• Economic Analysis
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• v.26 no.4
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• pp.39-64
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• 2020

Typical business cycle models have difficulties in explaining key macroeconomic labor market variables, such as employment and unemployment, as they usually consider labor hour choices only. In this paper, we introduce labor market search and matching frictions into a New Keynesian nominal rigidity model and estimate it by Bayesian methods to examine the dynamics of the key labor market variables and business cycles in Korea. The results show that unemployment rates are largely explained by technology shocks, which affect the labor demand side, as well as labor supply shocks. In addition, wage bargaining shocks originating from the bargaining process between firms and workers have non-negligible negative effects on output and employment growth, and careful measures need to be taken to limit their adverse effects.

• Land and Housing Review
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• v.6 no.4
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• pp.165-175
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• 2015

This study is focusing on the needs to introduce policy decision making based on identification of the definition for 'business life cycle' and 'public enterprises' for proper public enterprises management. For this purpose, the study is planning to define categorical variables for enterprise life cycle and provide basic data for public enterprises management policy. This study explored 'Korea Expressway Corporation', 'K-water', 'Korea Railroad', 'Korea Land and Housing Corporations', because of they are the public institutions recently underwent 'management normalization policy' due to rapidly increasing debt. First, there follows the analysis on priority and standard of categorical variables for quasi-market oriented SOC public enterprise life cycle by using AHP and frequency study on expert survey. Next, this study investigated and analyzed the enterprises management plan for expected 'declining period' through forecasting 'declining period' by conducting 2nd expert survey.

• Journal of Labour Economics
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• v.41 no.2
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• pp.31-59
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• 2018

This study examines how the rate of transition between employment and non-employment changes with the business cycle using monthly panel data constructed from 2000-2013 Korea Labor and Income Panel Study(KLIPS). In particular, we investigate whether the transition rates are different across demographic groups when the labor market is depressed. We find that, as the labor market weakens, the transition rate into non-employment significantly increases. The rates of transition into non-employment are substantially higher for female, older and less educated groups than those for male, prime-aged and more educated groups.